Research@theTreasury
Economic Research and Debate at the Italian Treasury
Monthly newsletter
March 2014
LATEST PUBLICATIONS
Predictions vs. Preliminary Sample Estimates: the
Case of Eurozone Quarterly GDP
Authors: Enrico D’Elia
WP N°2 2014
Economic agents are aware to incur in a loss basing
their decisions on their own extrapolations instead
of sound statistical data, but the loss could be
smaller than the one related to waiting for the
dissemination of final data. A broad guidance in
deciding when statistical offices should release
preliminary and final estimates of the key statistics
may come from comparing the loss attached to
users’ predictions to the loss associated to possible
preliminary estimates from incomplete samples
provides.
New to download
Italy's Strategy for Growth and Fiscal
Consolidation - Updated March 2014
Are sovereign credit ratings procyclical? A controversial issue revisited
in light of the current financial crisis
– by Paolo Giacomino (Areté Research &
Consulting in Economics)
March 14, 2014 – Rome MEF BBLM
Italy’s Major Structural Reforms
- Updated February 2014
Valutazione di interventi di riforma del
mercato del lavoro attraverso
Read the paper: »
Fiscal Devaluation Scenarios: a Quantitative
Assessment for the Italian Economy
strumenti quantitativi (Italian version)
- by Germana Di Domenico, Margherita
Scarlato (MEF, Roma Tre University)
Authors: Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio, Francesco
Felici
February 13, 2014 - Rome MEF BBLM
WP N°1 2014
We study the potential impact of fiscal devaluation
policies on the Italian economy using IGEM, a
dynamic general equilibrium model for the Italian
economy developed at the Department of Treasury
of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance.
The simulations show that fiscal devaluation
policies are likely to produce slight improvements
on the external position of the economy only in the
short run, while the output gains seem to persist in
the long run. Non-negligible distributional effects
across households are also observed, since taxation
on consumption tends to be regressive.
Methodologies for the calculation of
potential output, debt rule and
expenditure benchmark under the new
system of European governance
- by Marco Cacciotti, Alessandra
Caretta, Alessandra De Castro, Elena
Masi, Roberto Morea (MEF, SOGEI)
January 28, 2014 – Rome CER
Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of
Structural Reforms in Italy: the NRP
Approach
- by Barbara Annicchiarico, Fabio Di Dio,
Francesco Felici (Tor Vergata University,
Read the paper: »
In-Work Benefits for Married Couples: an ex-ante
Evaluation of EITC and WTC Policies in Italy
Authors: Giuseppe De Luca, Claudio Rossetti, Daniela
Vuri
SOGEI, MEF)
January 24, 2014 -Bruxelles LIME
Meeting
A Cultural Clash View of the EU Crisis
WP N°12 2013
This paper investigates labor supply and
redistributive effects of in-work benefits for Italian
married couples using a tax-benefit microsimulation
model and a multi-sectoral discrete choice model
of labor supply. We consider in-work benefits based
on the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the
Working Tax Credit (WTC) existing in the US and the
UK, respectively.
Read the paper: »
T-DYMM: the Treasury Dynamic Microsimulation
Model of the Italian Pension System
Authors: Alessandra Caretta, Sara Flisi, Cecilia Frale,
Michele Raitano, Simone Tedeschi
WP N° 11 2013
The long-term development of the social security
system is a crucial policy issue in terms of both
financial sustainability and adequacy, which
constitute a difficult trade-off facing the policy
maker. The particular complexity of this issue, also
in the light of demographic dynamics and the
recent economic crisis, has encouraged the
development of dynamic microsimulation models as
to analyse the distributive effects of pension
reforms in the long run.
Read the paper: »
Reforms, labour market functioning and
productivity dynamics: a sectoral analysis for
Italy
by Luigi Guiso (Einaudi Institute for
Economics and Finance-EIEF)
January 15, 2014 – Rome MEF BBLM
A new methodolgy for a quarterly
measure of the output gap
- by Marco Cacciotti (MEF)
December 17, 2013 – Rome MEF BBLM
A Broadened Approach to the Budget:
an example from Italy
- by Germana Di Domenico (MEF)
December 5, 2013 - Paris OECD
Financing Europe
- by Lorenzo Codogno (MEF)
December 4, 2013 – Hamburg - DZ BANK
AG Global Central Bank Conference
‘QUO VADIS PUBLIC FINANCE Challenges
and opportunities for public asset
managers and issuers at a time of worldwide monetary transition’
Remarks regarding ‘Exiting the Claws
of the Fiscal Compact-Basel III in order
to Realize Infrastructure
Projects’(Italian version) – by Lorenzo
Codogno (MEF)
Novembre 14, 2013 – Rome Dexia
Crediop
Authors: Cecilia Jona Lasinio, Giovanna Vallanti
WP N°10 2013
Over the last two decades Italy registered notable
improvements in the performance of the labour
market both in terms of unemployment and
participation. However, such improvements have
been accompanied by a deterioration of
productivity and competitiveness. This paper
provides evidence in this respect evaluating to what
extent labour market reforms might have
influenced the poor productivity performance of
the Italian economy over the period 1980-2008.
Read the paper: »
UNDER REVIEW FOR PUBLICATION
Next Treasury Seminars
BBLM – April 1, 2014 - Rome MEF
Speaker: Robert S. Chirinko - University
of Illinois at Chicago
Job creation tax credits and job
growth: evidence from U.S. States
BBLM - May 6, 2014 - Rome MEF
Speaker: Marco Leonardi - Università di
Milano e IZA
Employment Protection Legislation,
Capital Investment and Access to
Credit: Evidence from Italy
BBLM – TBA - Rome
Speaker: Michele Manna - Banca d’Italia
Do Fuel Prices adjust to Oil Price Asymmetrically?
Strategy and tactics in public debt
Evidence from five European Countries
Authors: Silvia D’Andrea, Enrico D’Elia, Giancarlo Fiorito
Deregulation and growth in Italy
Authors: Cristina Mocci, Stefania Pozzuoli, Francesca
Romagnoli, Cristina Tinti
management
Suggested events
Anaemic Europe: how to achieve
dynamism and mass flourishing
On the role of unobserved preference
heterogeneity in discrete choice models of labour
supply
Authors: Daniele Pacifico
Reweight: a Stata Module to reweight Survey Data
to External Totals
- XXVI Villa Mondragone International
Economic Seminar
July 1-3, 2014 - Rome
Quick Links
Authors: Daniele Pacifico
Working Papers
Do fiscal Institutions impact fiscal Performance?
Studies, Presentations and Speeches
Authors: Giovanni Coletta, Carmen Graziano, Giancarlo
Infantino
Events
Economic Focus
Newsletter
Monthly PIL
Seminars at the Bank of Italy
COMMUNICATIONS
Seminars at EIEF
Presentation of “Policy options to support the carbon
price within the EU ETS " by Susan Battles, in
collaboration with Stefano Clò and Pietro Zoppoli, at the
Euro-Case Energy Platform conference "The European
Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) - Taking stock,
looking forward: Options for Reform”
February 12-13, 2014, Brussels.
Presentation of “What drives Italian electricity prices?
The role of renewables” at the Second Annual
Conference IAERE (Italian Association of Environmental
and Resource Economists),
by Stefano Clò, in
collaboration with Alessandra Cataldi and Peter Zoppoli
February 13-14, 2014 - University of Milan.
Questa nuova newsletter presenta le occasioni di dibattito e i contributi di ricerca sui temi economicofinanziari del Dipartimento del Tesoro. Il vostro parere per noi è importante, potete scriverci a
dt.segreteria.direzione1@tesoro.it.
This is the new edition of the Italian Treasury newsletter presenting papers, presentations and seminars
on economic and financial issues. If you have any comments or suggestions feel free to write us at
dt.segreteria.direzione1@tesoro.it.
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Department of the Treasury
Directorate I - Economic and Financial Analysis
Office I
Website: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/en/
E-mail: dt.segreteria.direzione1@tesoro.it
Phone: +39 06 47614202 | +39 06 47614197
Fax: +39 06 47821886
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