file

advertisement
House Price Developments in Europe
Peter Parlasca FRICS
19th European Real Estate Society
Conference
Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Outline









14 June 2012
Background
Legal Framework
Macroeconomic surveillance
Scoreboard Indicators
Data sources
On-going issues
Scoreboard website
House Price Indices (HPI) annual
Experimental Statistics quarterly
Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe
2
Background
 The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the
sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008
and the following years lead to a number of new EU
Policy initiatives:
– Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening
economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010)
– Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an
Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
3
Legal Framework
 Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework
published in November 2011 - “Six Pack”
– Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and
of the Council on the prevention and correction of
macroeconomic imbalances
– Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and
of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive
macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area
 The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November
2011
– The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all
necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the
compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous
improvement of the underlying statistical information
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
4
Macroeconomic surveillance (1)
 Commission procedure aiming to the identification of
emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at
an early stage
 Based on a scoreboard consisting of a small number of
relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
 Compiled according to the principles of the European
Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical
System
 Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission
 Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism
Report
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
5
Macroeconomic surveillance (2)
 MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as
either policy targets or policy instruments
 their interpretation should be supplemented by
economic judgment and country-specific expertise
 The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may
evolve over time
 First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th
February
 Together with Eurostat news release:
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators
to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
6
Macroeconomic surveillance (3)
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
7
Imbalance indicators
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
14 June 2012
public indebtedness
private indebtedness
asset market developments: housing
evolution of private sector credit flow
evolution of unemployment
evolution of current account
net investment positions
real effective exchange rates
share of world exports
nominal unit labour cost
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
8
Scoreboard indicators
14 June 2012
Current account balance
% of GDP- 3 year avg
Net international investment position
% of GDP
Real effective exchange rate
3 year % change
Share of world exports
5 year % change
Nominal unit labour cost index
3 year % change
House prices - deflated
1 year % change
Private credit flow
% of GDP
Private debt
% of GDP
General government gross debt (EDP)
% of GDP
Unemployment rate
3 year avg
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
9
Data sources for House Price Indices
 Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from
National Statistical Institutes (NSIs)
 The European Central Bank complements data based
on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs)
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
10
Ongoing issues
 House prices - legislation
– Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of
harmonised data
 House prices - coverage
– Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the
experimental house price statistics
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
11
The scoreboard website
 Dedicated section of the Eurostat website:
scoreboard website
 Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same
page
 Data up-to-date
 Data available for all member states
 Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format
 And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing
longer time series
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
12
House Price Indices (HPI) annual change
 Hand out
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
13
House Price Indices (HPI) annual
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
14
Experimental House Price Indices quarterly
Weblink:
 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/
methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimenta
l_house_price_indices
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
15
Contact Details
Peter Parlasca FRICS
European Commission EUROSTAT
5, rue Alphonse Weicker
L-2721 Luxembourg
Tel :
(+352)4301-33101
E-Mail:
Peter.Parlasca@ec.europa.eu
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
16
Download