Seeking the New Normal: Periodicals Price Survey 2010 Publisher-Vendor-Library Relations (PVLR) Interest Group ALA Midwinter San Diego 2011 Seeking the New Normal: Periodicals Price Survey 2010 Kittie S. Henderson Director, Academic and Law Divisions EBSCO Information Services [email protected] Stephen Bosch Materials Budget, Procurement, and Licensing Librarian University of Arizona Library [email protected] What are price indices? Overall Goal of price indices is to measure as accurately as possible on a periodic basis the extent of price changes on a similar set of items (serials) in order to document market dynamics. Standards Much of the current work on serials pricing is based on: ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials published in 1999. http://www.niso.org/kst/reports/standards/ Serials Pricing Studies Library Journal Serials Pricing Article ALA ALCTS Library Materials Price Index (LMPI) Editorial Board in the Library and Book Trade Almanac published by Information Today. Other studies such as the American Association of Law Librarians Price Index for Legal Publications. Different approaches, similar conclusions The major differences in the price surveys are in methodology. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! Methodology: Library Journal The data for the LJ article is drawn from sets of serial titles contained in discreet packages including: Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Arts & Humanities Citation Index Science Citation Index Social Sciences Citation Index EBSCO Publishing Academic Search Premier Magazine Article Summaries Ultra Methodology: Library Journal Titles included in the ISI products are selected based upon impact factor, the average number of citations to articles published in science and social science journals. Titles included in the EBSCO products are based upon EBSCO editorial policy. Methodology: Library Journal Pricing is derived from the EBSCO Information Services Title Database approximately 6,400 items indexed by the ISI Indices. approximately 3,200 titles in EBSCO ASP as well as EBSCO MAS Ultra. LJ Study includes titles published outside the U.S. Titles may be included in both ISI and EBSCO indices. Nitty Gritty More Nitty Gritty Methodology: U.S. Periodical Price Index The LMPI data (the U.S. Periodical Price Index) is drawn from a selected sample of approximately 3,800 predominately print periodical titles published in the U.S.. Titles must meet definition of periodical outlined in ANSI Z39.20-1999: “A publication that comprises publications in a continuous series under the same title, published more than once a year over an indefinite period with individual issues in the series numbered consecutively or with each issue dated.” Methodology: U.S. Periodical Price Index Titles are selected and maintained over to time in order to provide a comprehensive sample “market basket” to gauge changes in serials data. Titles may fall off the LMPI list due to changes such as cessation or move to a format which requires a custom quote. Titles which closely match price, subject, and audience replace the dropped title in the index. The methodology for the USPPI most closely resembles that used in others indices like the Consumer Price Index. Methodology Similarities Both studies rely on standard list pricing, usually print. EBSCO provides pricing data for both studies. Still More Nitty Gritty ….. Different approaches, similar conclusions Each has a somewhat different approach but overall both indicate that over the past few years periodical price inflation has consistently hovered in the 6-9% per annum range. Seeking the New Normal: As expected when different methods are used there are slightly different outcomes: The LJ Periodical Price Survey showed for the ISI data 7.6 % increase in 2008-09 and 4.4% increase in 2009-10. The EBSCO ASP data showed a 9.4% increase in 2008-09 and a 4.1% increase in 2009-10. The USPPI showed an overall increase of 7.1% 200809 and 6.4% in 2009-10. Seeking the New Normal: Price Projections from LJ Article No. of Titles % of List 2010 Cost % of Cost Projected % of Increase Projected 2011 Cost % of Cost Projected Overall % Increase 7.9 ARTS AND HUMANITIES CITATION INDEX U.S. 431 35.9 $69,101 21.9 7.1 $73,938 21.6 NON-U.S. 768 64.1 246,814 78.1 8.7 269,027 78.4 937 46.8 498,509 33.7 8.1 538,888 33.9 1064 53.1 978,923 66.3 7.5 1,052,343 55.1 U.S. 1368 38.9 105,378 2.1 7.7 113,808 2.1 NON-US 2146 61.1 4,963,554 97.9 6.8 5,311,003 97.9 SOCIAL SCIENCES CITATION INDEX U.S. NON-U.S. 7.8 SCIENCE CITATION INDEX PROJECTED OVERALL INCREASE FOR ALL ISI TITLES: 7.7% SOURCE: LJ PERIODICALS PRICE SURVEY 2010 7.3 But which one is right for me? It depends. It is very important to understand what goes into a pricing tool and how it resembles or departs from local conditions. Questions?