Contemporary Tourism
Tourism in the Twenty First
Lecture Objectives
• Be able to appreciate some of the key factors influencing
tourism in this century
• Understand why the condition of the physical environment is
directly and indirectly significant for the future of tourism
• Understand the potential significance of climate change for
tourism environments and destinations
• Be able to identify some of the difficulties associated with
predicting tourist flows and patterns
• Understand the implications for tourism of the end of easily
accessible oil supplies
• Be able to appreciate the role that aviation plays with respect to
both climate change and energy supply issues in tourism
• Appreciate the value of scenarios as a decision-making tool
An Uncertain World
The future is unknown
Prediction is difficult due to:
Wild card events
Shifting business environment
All elements impact upon the production
and consumption of tourism
• Growth in international tourism set against
global environmental change
• Paradox
• Forecasts versus concerns
– Political instability
– Energy
– Global environmental change
Climate Change
• Issues for
– Reef tourism
– Coastal tourism
– Winter tourism
• Responding to change
– Greenhouse Gasses
– Aviation sector
Predicting Change
• Causality difficult to determine
• Predicting tourist behaviour?
What Future for Tourism?
• People make their own history
• People make their own future
• Future of tourism determined largely by
factors external to the sector
• Scenarios for the future