How to Measure
ANYTHING
The Analytical Process
The analytical process
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Think
Decompose
Simplify
Specify
Rethink
THINK!
Another way to say this: Think first,
calculate second
Some Hints
What kind of a problem is it?
Work backwards
Search for analogies
Lateral Thinking 1
Lateral Thinking 2
Lateral Thinking 3
Lateral Thinking 4
Working backward from the
conclusion
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Working backward from the
conclusion
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Working backward from the
conclusion
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Working backward from the
conclusion
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Decompose
• Break the problem into manageable
pieces
• Map how the pieces fit together
• Elements: Alternatives,
Consequences, preferences
• Identify the pieces you know how to
handle (plug values)
Simplify -- KISS
• Critical focus: what really matters?
• Map back, find shortest path to a
conclusion (how much precision do
you need?)
- Theory (justified belief)
- Evidence (warrants, and qualifications)
Specify
• Be precise about the elements
• Specify your premises, assumptions,
constructs
• Model (draw a picture -- decision tree
is a picture of a decision)
Rethink
• Test your conclusions
- Flip problem elements around
- Violate constraints and
assumptions
- Sensitivity and a fortiori
(breakeven) analysis
Let’s Play Save the World
Global warming!
Q&D ABC Global Warming
• What is our first step?
All choices presuppose
forecasts
• All forecasts are more or less
uncertain
- Relationships
 What happens if we do x to y
 Run backwards
- SONs
 History helps
 H is just a sample of observations