The Black Swan:
Why We Do Not
See
Rare Events
The Happy Turkey
Food per day in kg
Christmas Day
30
60
90
120
150
Days of life
180
210
240
Why do we behave like happy
turkeys?
A psychological approach
based on
Thinking, Fast and Slow
by Nobel Prize winner
Daniel Kahneman
Overview
• Our mind: a machine that produces associations
• Priming (creating a basic attitude)
▫ Lady Macbeth effect
▫ Honesty Box effect
• Environmental Priming
ASSOCIATIONS
rat
Associations:
Automatic reactions to the word
(and to the images associated with it)
• Pupils widen
• Face twists
• Expression of disgust
• Move away from the sight
• Heart rate increases
• Hair on the arms rises
• Start to sweat
→ We react as if the experience was real
memories
activated
Associations
stronger
memory
“RAT“
Idea
Idea 1
Idea 2
Idea 3
Idea 4
Emotions +
feelings
Idea 5
facial expressions
gestures
EXPERIMENT
Priming
(automatische Aktivierung von Einstellungen z. B. in Vorurteilen/Stereotypen)
SO_P
unconscious
SOUP
The idea of “food” primes the idea of “soup”
unconscious
SOAP
The idea of “bath” primes the idea of “soap”
Lady Macbeth (Shakespeare)
▫
▫
▫
▫
▫
▫
▫
▫
Lady Macbeth wants to become the queen of Scotland
her husband (Macbeth) is not a king
Lady M. sends husband to kill king Duncan
Macbeth kills the king but forgets to take dagger (Dolch)
Lady M. fetches dagger
her hands covered with blood
washes her hands (thinking the sin is gone, too)
Later: nightmares
 her subconscious (Unterbewusstsein) stored picture of
bloody hands => wants to wash them all the time
Lady Macbeth Effect
Experiment
Priming: “Lie to your friend …”
… on the phone!”
… in an email!”
(Group 1)
(Group 2)
“Go to a shop and buy mouthwash or soap.”
What do you think the people in each group bought?
Group 1
Group 2
=> prefer mouthwash over soap
=> prefer soap over mouthwash
Honesty Box
Experiment
• Office kitchen
• Minimum contribution: 15 pennies
• One week: picture
• One week: eyes
When do you think
the people paid
more?
Kahneman’s Results
Source: „Thinking , Fast and Slow“
(Daniel Kahneman)
All the arctic ice melts:
Priming
and
environmental
=> Sea level
rises
by 6 m
protection
Actions
Time