Public health costs of road safety
Christopher Peck – CTC, the national cycling charity (UK)
Velo-City 2013 Vienna
What is road safety?
“By 2020 there will be 1.9m killed each year on the
roads, 50m injured.” – UN Decade of Road Safety
Road deaths in GB 1930-2010
Cycle fatalities have fallen
by 92% since the 1940s
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
Fatalities per 100,000
Rate per 100,000 people
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Per billion kms
120
Fatalities per billion kms
100
80
60
40
20
0
How to get it wrong, spectacularly
“As you massively increase the amount of people who
cycle, your figures for deaths go up. On the European
table I have here, the Netherlands is fourth from the
bottom, with 0.84 per 100,000 of population, whereas we
[UK] are seventh with 0.17.
…
I think the Netherlands might want to come and see us
to find out how we are making sure that so few people
are killed in cycling terms as we increase the numbers of
people cycling, because the figures would indicate that
we can perhaps do a bit better than them.”
- Road Safety Minister Mike Penning, speaking in the UK Parliament in 2012
Measuring risk of cycling, wrong and right
Which road user is involved in the most road deaths?
1,800
1,600
Cars, buses, van and lorries present far more risk
to other road users, whereas pedestrians,
cyclists and motorcyclists are more often
victims.
Road deaths
1,400
1,200
1,000
883
Others killed in collision with road user
800
600
Road user killed
453
362
400
200
107
7
0
34
27
28
Which road user represents the most danger per mile travelled?
20
Road deaths of thrid parties per billion miles
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Per billion miles travelled cycles are
involved in fewer deaths of other road
users than any other mode of transport.
Overweight and obese, 1980-2011
70
65
In the USA, obesity increased from
2010
1978
60
% obese or overweight
55
50
45
Obese
15%
Obese
36%
Overweight
Over33%
weight
32%
Normal
or under
53%
Normal
or
under
31%
40
35
30
25
20
UK
USA
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
Sweden
Public health consequences of…
600,000
2011 England and Wales deaths
500,000
Other
cancers
Breast,
prostate,
colorectal
59,568
83,613
484,367
Physical inactivity
reduces mortality
risks of these
cancers by 30-50%
Around 35% of
cardiovascular
diseases attributable
to physical inactivity
+ another ~25%
partly attributable to
air pollution
400,000
300,000
200,000
143,181
139,706
100,000
1,815
98
Transport accidents
Cycles
All deaths
Cancer
Diseases of the circulatory
system
Where ‘road safety’ goes wrong
• Any intervention or law that reduces physical
activity will almost inevitably do more harm
than good.
• de Jong (2012) – helmet legislation
or promotion only has a net health
benefit if injuries prevented exceed
health costs lost to reduced cycling.
• This is: “very difficult to achieve
except in extreme circumstances”
Conclusions
• Set targets and measure the right things…
Numbers of people killed or seriously injured
Very bad
Rate of death or injury to users per 100,000 population (current)
Poor
Rate of death or injury per mile, trip or hour (measured by some)
Better
Rate of death or injury to third parties (danger posed)
Good
Overall public health impact of different transport modes (road death or
injury caused AND air quality, cardiovascular disease etc)
Best
• Get the balance right between promoting cycling for
public health and road safety campaigns or laws which
deter people from cycling
Questions?
• How is safety and risk measured where you
live?
• How do we change institutional and
organisational approaches to risk and safety?
Thanks!
Christopher Peck
CTC – the national cycling charity
chris.peck@ctc.org.uk