Testing the Big Idea
Decision Making by the book
Decision making is both science and art.
Many aspects of military operations movement rates, fuel consumption,
weapons effects - are quantifiable and,
therefore, part of the science of war.
Other aspects - the impact of leadership,
complexity of operations, and uncertainty
regarding enemy intentions - belong to
the art of war.
• US Army Field Manual FM101-5, Staff
Organization And Operations, 1997, Chapter
5
Time Appreciation
Have you got the time to do this thoroughly?
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•
•
•
Urgency
Scope
People
Resources
Idea
Test
1. Set the scene
2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the
Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a
Goal
5. Optimise the value of the
Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
Start with the end in mind
Why did Nelson
fight at Trafalgar?
A) Destroy the French fleet
and remove the threat of
invasion
B) Use up the old gunpowder
before its sell-by date
C) Impress Lady Hamilton
It’s not only what you do, it’s also why you
choose to do it
Answer: A (if you didn’t pick A you are not taking this seriously)
Endgame
• The game
ends when:
a) You are
checkmated,
or
b) My King is in
g3, my Queen
is in c5, etc….
Idea
Test
1. Set the scene
2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the
Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a
Goal
5. Optimise the value of the
Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
What is a benefit?
•
•
•
•
•
Improve
Increase
Reduce
Eliminate
Stop
The measurable improvement resulting
from an outcome perceived as an
advantage by one or more
stakeholders, which contributes
towards one or more organisational
objective(s).
APMG Managing Benefits 2012
A benefit is a result that a stakeholder
perceives to be of value.
Features, Outcomes and
Benefits
• Feature - my car is painted ‘Police Car’
white
• Outcome - people move over for me on
the motorway so I get home for 6 pm
• Benefit - I get to watch The Simpsons
on TV
Picking the right benefits
Tactical benefits – getting
the donkey to move
Picking the right benefits
Strategic benefits – a cart
full of valuable cargo
Key stakeholders’
benefits
POWER,
CONTROL!
LOOT,
DRINK!
Same project,
different
intentions
Stakeholder Analysis
•Who are the key
stakeholders?
•What will they gain/lose?
•What impact will they have
upon your objectives?
Benefits Dependency
Means – what you use
Ways – what you do
Ends – What you want
This is manageable
This is
not
Idea
Test
1. Set the scene
2. Choose to change
3. First filter - test the
Hypothesis
4. Turn the Hypothesis into a
Goal
5. Optimise the value of the
Goal
6. Second filter - test the Goal
7. Plan to realise the Ends
8. Third filter - test the Goal
Pre-Mortem
A way to assess your risks
• Set the scene, “It’s a year from now, we
ran the project and it all went wrong”.
• Describe how and why it went wrong
• See what you can do now to prevent this
happening.
Original idea by Gary Klein, quoted in Thinking Fast
and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
David Waller
david.waller@keldale.com
07780 533876
www.keldale.com
www.goalmodelling.com
www.hivemindnetwork.com