The Future of Nuclear Weapons
More proliferation or further reductions?
Keith Hansen
February 19, 2015
Introduction
Cover central issues regarding nuclear weapons
Uncertainty of US – Russian relations & China raises
doubts about further reducing our nuclear arsenal
Potential proliferation and ISIS/ISIL activities raise
questions about the utility of nuclear weapons
Key Questions
Which countries have nuclear weapons?
Why do other countries want nuclear weapons?
Should we be concerned about further proliferation?
Are nuclear weapons really useful?
Is the total elimination of nuclear weapons likely?
Are terrorists likely to use nuclear weapons?
Terminology & Concepts
Weapon-grade fissile material (U-235 &
Plutonium)
Nuclear bombs & warheads
Nuclear weapon systems
US & Russian strategic nuclear arsenals
Cold War:
From a few bombs (late 1940s) to over 10,000 deployed
bombs & warheads (1980s)
Post-Cold War:
START (1991) – reduced bombs/warheads to 6,000
SORT (2002) – further reduced to ~3,500
New START (2010) – now reducing to ~1,550 (by 2018)*
*Additional bombs & warheads are kept in reserve & in maintenance
Other Nuclear Weapon States*
UK – 1950
France – 1960
China – 1964
Israel – 1960s (undeclared)
India – 1974 & 1998
Pakistan – 1998
North Korea – 2006
~300 bombs/warheads
~300
“
~500
“
~100
“
~100
“
~100
“
~12
“
*South Africa – had 6 bombs until early 1990s
Why Nuclear Weapons?
National security - deter potential aggressors
International prestige & status
Political/strategic agenda
Nuclear Weapons Are a Game Changer
Alter the power balance, especially between large &
small countries
Effective in deterring potential aggressors
Credible weapon of last resort if a state’s existence is
threatened
Therefore, the motivations to have them are strong!
So, Further Proliferation is Likely
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
South Korea
Taiwan
Japan
But,
Successful Proliferation Requires a
Comprehensive Nuclear-weapon Program
Production of weapon-grade fissile material
Ability to build bombs or warheads
Delivery systems, effective command/control,
maintenance, & secure storage
Further Proliferation Increases Chances of …
A nuclear-weapon being used
Fissile material being sold or stolen
Provoking even more proliferation
Weakening diplomacy & sanctions
Therefore, it threatens international stability!
International Efforts* to Prevent Proliferation
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) – 1968
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring
UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions & sanctions
Comprehensive Nuclear Testban Treaty (CTBT) – 1996
Regional Nuclear-Weapon Free Zones
*Demonstrate widespread concern about the implications of further proliferation
National Efforts to Prevent Proliferation
Intelligence collection, analysis, & other activities
Diplomatic initiatives/incentives/pressure
Economic sanctions
International Efforts to prevent Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI) – 2002
Threat of military force
Are Nuclear Weapons Really Useful?
Do they deter other nuclear-weapon states?
Do they deter larger conventional forces?
Do they deter attacks by rogue states?
Do they deter attacks by terrorist groups?
If Not, Why Not Eliminate Them?
It would require …
A comprehensive agreement by all nuclear
weapon countries
Effective verification to deter cheating
The willingness to deal with cheating
Does this seem feasible?
Are Terrorists Likely to Use Nuclear Weapons?
Strong motivations, but they must …
Obtain an existing nuclear bomb or weapon-grade
fissile material
Have the expertise to handle and deploy
The challenges are formidable, but further proliferation
would make it easier!
Meanwhile, other types of weapons are more feasible.
Conclusions
Further proliferation is more likely than total elimination!
Chances are high that additional nuclear-weapon
states will emerge.
Chances are low that all nuclear-weapon states will
give up their arsenals.
Motivations for having such weapons are strong.
Terrorist use of nuclear, chemical or biological material is a
matter of when, not if!
Nightmare Scenarios
North Korea becomes even more aggressive
Pakistan becomes a radical Islamic state
Iran becomes a nuclear-weapon state
Questions?