Assessing the Impact of Financial Aid on Student
Success
SHEEO Higher Education Policy Conference
August 8, 2012
Objectives for our time together
1
Project Overview
2
Louisiana Findings
3
Oklahoma Findings
4
Discussion
About the research partnership
Two papers have already been released
on LA findings
Research Questions
• How does the level and mix of financial
assistance affect retention and
completion among Pell Grant recipients?
• Can we observe differences in the
retention of Pell Grant recipients versus
students in other financial
classifications (needy non-Pell
recipients and no-need students)?
Research Questions
• Can we identify flex points in the size
and composition of financial aid awards
where additional dollars yield
diminishing or no returns? Can we help
the state’s package aid more efficiently
by eliminating “overpayment” to some
students and shifting that money to
students who might otherwise be
inclined to drop out?
Research Questions
• How do state-based aid programs
(TOPS, Go Grant, OK Promise and
OTAG) interact with the Pell Grant and
with want impact on student retention
and completion?
• What is the best use of the state’s
financial aid investments?
Key Project Outcomes for the LA
Regents and OSRHE
•
•
•
•
Conduct custom policy research
Assist in advancing policy changes
as needed
Develop report shells based on
findings
Develop internal capacity to analyze
and monitor data in the future
Louisiana findings
High school GPA* was the strongest
academic preparation variable
100.0%
Retention Rate
90.0%
87.0%
80.0%
79.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
55.0%
40.0%
< 3.00
3.00 - 3.49
3.50 - 3.74
High School GPA
* 2,817 records (out of 37,251) were missing a high
school GPA (they retained at 58%)
3.75 - 4.00
Once we control for high school GPA*, Pell
recipients retain as well as other students with
demonstrated financial need
No Pell
Pell
Retention Rate
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
< 3.00
3.00 - 3.49
3.50 - 3.74
High School GPA Range
3.75 - 4.00
Among Pell recipients, as the percentage of need met with
gift aid increases so does student retention
Retention Rate by % Need Met w/Gift, All
Records
All Records
% Need Met with Gift
<30
40
50
60
70
80+
Grand Total
Retain
1301
1449
1622
1308
1136
1958
8774
Did Not
Retain
1363
1103
936
537
408
462
4809
Total
2664
2552
2558
1845
1544
2420
13583
Retention
Rate
48.8%
56.8%
63.4%
70.9%
73.6%
80.9%
64.6%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
Chi-Square Results:
df
5
value 727.1
p-value <.0001
40.0%
30.0%
<30
40
50
60
Increasing the gift percentage from less than 30 percent to 60 percent corresponds to a
22 percentage point increase in the retention rate, while increasing the percentage of
need met with gift aid from 60 percent to 70 percent increases retention by only 3 points.
70
80+
Adding the Go Grant alone increases the percentage of need
met with gift aid by 14 percentage points and provides a
5.6 percentage point improvement in retention
Need Met with Gift Aid
80.0%
73.3%
70.0%
60.0%
53.8%
59.4%
73.9%74.9%
63.0%
47.5%
50.0%
40.0%
Retention Rate
34.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Pell Only
Pell + GO
All pairwise comparisons of means are significant except for
retention rate between Pell+TOPS and Pell+GO+TOPS
Pell + TOPS
Pell + GO +
TOPS
Oklahoma findings
High school GPA was used as the control
for academic preparation because it
entered a predictive model we built on
the data set
Relative Strength of Model Variables
Percent Need Met with
Gift
High School GPA
7.6%
7.7%
39.3%
EFC>0 Flag
17.1%
Distance from Campus
28.2%
Institution Code
Note: In our 2010 work, we used ACT composite as the control variable, but that
was not based on a model
Pell Grant recipients retain as well as
students in other categories
Table 3: Fall-to-Fall Same School Retention by HSGPA
Fall 2006, Fall 2007, Fall 2008
HSGPA
All
Pell
Needy, no
Range
Students
Recipients
Pell Grant
< 3.00
47%
51%
45%
3.00 - 3.49
61%
62%
60%
3.50 - 3.74
71%
70%
73%
3.75 - 4.00
81%
82%
78%
GPA missing
53%
54%
57%
62%
62%
63%
Total
This parity in performance is encouraging given the vast difference in
family income between the Pell students ( approx. $20,000) and students
with demonstrated financial need without Pell Grants (approx. $56,000)
There is a relationship between the
percentage of need met with gift aid and
retention among Pell recipients
2.86 and below
2.87 to 3.35
3.36 to 3.63
3.64 and above
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
Retention Rate
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Less than 28%
29% to 50%
51% to 79%
% of Need Met with Gift
80% and above
Retention rates by combinations of Pell
Grants and Promise/OTAG
Pell Grant Only, No Promise or OTAG
Pell, Promise and OTAG
Pell and Promise, No OTAG
Total (All Pell Recipients)
Pell and OTAG, No Promise
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
<3.0
3.0-3.49
3.5-3.74
>3.74
Total
Questions
Questions
and
Discussion