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Using predictive analytics to drive game personalisation
February 2012
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Agenda
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Who we are
What is analytics?
Predictive modelling and player segmentation
Building personalised experiences
A big brother future?
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GamesAnalytics
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• 30 + years games industry experience
• 15+ years dedicated to online & mobile games
• 15+ years data analytics experience with finance and retail sectors
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ChangeTheGame
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So what is Analytics?
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Analytics is the process of developing optimal or realistic decision
recommendations based on insights derived through the application of
statistical models and analysis against existing and/or simulated future
data – wikipedia
Analytics is not
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It’s also not easy
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• Challenges
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Big data
Complex player behaviours
Multiple monetisation mechanics
Overly focusing on whales
Making the data drive value
• Never mind being expensive, resource and
data intensive…slightly mind-bending and
probably just a fad…
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The problem with Dashboards…
• They almost never give you the information you actually need to
action anything useful
• They tell you about the average player
• They tell you old information
• They always look like this
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A/B Testing
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1. Trial two versions and see which is most popular
2. Pick the most popular and roll it out to everyone
3. Repeat.
• One size fits all
• The Horizon Effect ….
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Funnel Analysis
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• Originated from web analysis
• Great for linear progress and identifying ‘leaks’
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Cohort analysis
Multiple gameplay routes
Multiple monetisation mechanics
Works for simple social games
• By its nature does not recognise multiple player
types or non-linear gameplay
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Next Generation Analytics
• Behavioural Segmentation
• Social Analytics
• Predictive Modelling
• Real time in game messaging
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Who are my players?
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• A game’s player base is made up of lots
of different player types
• Each person is experiencing the same
game differently
• Understanding player behaviours is vital
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Player Segmentation
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Virality Potential
7%
0.55%
36%
$0.75
31%
0.89%
22%
$1.75
5%
0.19
9%
$2.38
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6%
25%
1.30%
26%
$2.21
14%
0.97
21%
$1.94
2.34%
57%
$4.40
12%
0.86
59%
$3.57
%Volume
%Paying
7Day Ret
CAC
Early Enthusiasts
Confident Completers
Social Involver
Sporadic SemiEngaged
Losing Momentum
Need Guidance
Revenue Potential
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Borderline Incompetent
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The Power of Prediction`
• Once you understand your different players…
• …You can start to predict what they want
• and use this information to deliver immediate player value
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Building Predictive Models
• Core predictive models in SAS & R
• Multi-variant models can include 100+ separate variables
• Each model allows you to target a set of users precisely
• High propensity to take up the offer
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Predicting Purchase Behaviour
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Variable Contribution
0.25
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0.2
0.15
24 Hours +
Gameplay
0.1
High %
GiftedItem
0.05
Total
Stamina
5000+
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0
1
Level 7-12
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Fighting
Events
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Accepted
Invite
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High PVP
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Score model at key points in
the game
• Start of Session
• Start of Mission
• After Mission Failed
Select players who have high
model score (high likelihood
to purchase)
Send message with
offer/incentive
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Low
Mission
Completion
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Predicting Defection
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150 Events
Start
500 Events
Country
Age
Gender
Level Momentum,
Average Seconds Per
Event, Socialness,
Features Consumed
Analysis
Period
Early Defectors
Apply Model at
150 Events.
Treat High
Scores with
Targeted
Messages
Detailed Events:
Quests Completed,
Purchase Behaviour,
Organising Tasks,
Specific Missions
Defectors and Engaged players behave differently in 1st 20 minutes
Predict likelihood to defect and invoke retention activities before it is too late
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Defectors
Engaged
Using Data Effectively
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• Games data collection benefits from huge
amounts of rich behavioural information
• (When event collection is applied correctly)
• Each individual player creates a complex
decision path
• Information can be mined and used to
optimise gameplay
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The Players’ Views
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• Game design is generally focused on creating a great game
• We need to look at it from the player perspective
• Predictive analytics enables you to understand and identify
behaviours to adapt gameplay to the player’s personal profile
• Creating great personalised gameplay experience
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Big Brother….
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• Data protection
• Privacy
• Exploitation of user profiles
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The Adaptive Game
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• Analytics provides a huge opportunity to
deliver personal gaming experiences
• Using the power of data for good
• A new concept in game design
• An incredibly powerful way of dynamically altering
games
• Adapting a game to players behaviour in real time
• Player satisfaction delivers increased
revenues
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Any Questions?
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