Truman, Marshall, Wise Men and a Plan –
How patient preparation paves the way for
peace and prosperity
An Introduction to Critical Thinking and
Complex Problem Solving
PLANS ARE USELESS, PLANNING IS
EVERYTHING
Dwight D. Eisenhower
16th Chief of Staff, United States Army
Levels of War
 Different Levels of
Responsibility at Each Level
National Policy
Strategic Level
 Decisions at One Level Affect
Theater Strategy
Campaigns
All Levels
Operational Level
Major Operations
 Truman Doctrine the
“Strategic Policy”
 Marshall Plan the
“Operational” Level
 Different plan applied in Asia.
Battles
Tactical Level
Engagements
Small Unit and
Crew Action
Why should we teach the
Marshall Plan?
“The true national
object in war, as in
peace, is a more
perfect peace.”
Martin Dempsey,
37th Chief of Staff, United States Army
We TRAIN for certainty; we EDUCATE
for uncertainty
Peter Schoomaker
35th Chief of Staff, United States Army
“The state that separates its scholars from its
warriors will have its thinking done by cowards,
and its fighting by fools.”
Thucydides
Marshall Plan – Answer to Question of
“How to “Save” (Stabilize) Europe?
Problem Solving Process
 Recognize and define the
problem.
 Gather information.
 Develop possible solutions to the
problem.
 Analyze possible solutions.
 Select the best solution.
 Implement the solution and
assess results.
Elements of National Power
 DIPLOMATIC
 ECONOMIC
 MILITARY
 INFORMATION
Win/Win or Win/Lose?
Potsdam:
Seeking a More Perfect Peace
 Truman takes measure of
Stalin.
 Was not of “one mind” on
the Soviets.
 Against appeasement.
 Tried to be patient,
prudent, and maintain
balance.
 Stalin “slapped” Truman at
Potsdam – Truman turned
the other cheek.
 Offered Stalin all he knew
he could take anyway –
asked only one thing in
return: free and
unrestricted navigation of
the inland waterways of
Europe
POWER IS NOT DIVISIBLE
George C. Marshall,
15th Chief of Staff, United States Army
Enduring National Interests
 SECURITY: The security of the United States, its citizens, and
U.S. allies and partners.
 PROSPERITY: A strong, innovative, and growing U.S. economy
in an open international economic system that promotes
opportunity and prosperity.
 VALUES: Respect for universal values at home and around the
world.
 INTERNATIONAL ORDER: An international order advanced
by U.S. leadership that promotes peace, security, and opportunity
through stronger cooperation to meet global challenges.
Education of George C. Marshall
 US transition from Agrarian to
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Industrial Nation.
Related to Chief Justice John
Marshall.
Virginia Military Institute
Philippines and WW I
Fort Leavenworth, KS
CCC and China
National Guard
Aide to Chief of Staff
Army Chief of Staff
Complex Systems
 A complex system is DYNAMIC not
STATIC.
 Composed of many parts that as a
whole exhibit properties not
obvious from the properties of the
individual parts (The whole is greater
than the sum of the parts…)
 Parts are intricately arranged.
 Examples include ant colonies,
human economies and social
structures, climate, nervous systems,
cells and living things, including
human beings, as well as modern
energy or telecommunication
infrastructures (i.e., networks).
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POLITICAL

CULTURAL
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ECONOMIC
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INFRASTRUCTURE

SOCIAL
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INFORMATIONAL
Example of a Complex Problem:
Choluteca “Bridge to Nowhere.”
 Built in 1986
 Hurricane Mitch in 1998 changed
the underlying environment.
 Simple problem of crossing the river
not seen in context of a more
complex, dynamic,
ENVIRONMENT….
 IDEA – an alternate route around
the city of Choluteca, to provide
new infrastructure to allow
growth of commerce on the Pan
American Highway – and
building infrastructure to last - a
good one.
Marshall’s Enduring Lesson Teaches How to Solve
Complex Problems – Making Good Decisions
Two types of PROBLEMS
PROBLEM as defined by Marshall:
1. STRUCTURED (simple)
Breakdown of the business
2. UNSTRUCTURED (complex) structure of Europe.
Two types of PROBLEM SOLVING: Marshall as a LEADER specifically
rejected advise to cast plan as a
1. NORMATIVE (logical)
blow against Communism.
2. NATURALISTIC (intuitive)
Truman Doctrine and Marshall:
Seeking a More Perfect Peace
 European Recovery: Complex
Problem, conflicting Visions
1.
2.
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 Truman gave Stalin one more
chance:
Win/Win vs. Win/Lose
Democratic/Free Market vs.
Authoritarian Centrally
Planned
Objective: Regional Stability
Means: Public/Private
Partnership
Way: Collaboration and
Partnership
1.
2.
3.
4.
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Private rather than Public Secret until 1975
No requirement to repay
MILITARY loans or to return
military hardware
Return or lease of 40 Liberty
Ships asked
Good Faith effort to finance
loans for Humanitarian Aid
Stalin rejected – second slap.
Truman Decided
The Marshall Plan
 Most proposals for a new Marshall Plan
misunderstand the INTENT of the original plan and
how it worked.
 Plan to restore the power of Business – the private
sector – as a growth engine
 Business, not Government or NGO, was center-piece
 Focus on Private Sector and Free Market intended to
support shift from AID to TRADE.
The Marshall Plan
 Four Components:
Source for Funds
Intensive Involvement of
Private Sector
1.
2.
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Local Government LOANS to
business
Business repays
Loan repayment funds
commercial infrastructure
Economic Policy Reforms to
support PRIVATE SECTOR.
3.
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4.
Maker easier for ALL businesses
Help new-start entrepreneurs
and Mid-Size manufacturers and
Large-Size enterprise to
THRIVE.
Plan CUT trade barriers.
Regional Coordinating Body to
Distribute Funds
Example of a Complex Problem:
Kunar Valley, Afghanistan
 2006 – President bans logging
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and lumber sales.
Wood-cutting a centuries old
tradition.
Deodar cedar a hard aromatic
wood prized by furniture
makers.
A two-yard log that sells for $10
in Kunar is $150 in Karachi and
$300 in Dubai.
Smuggling brisk, Taliban
controls and profits.
Example of a Complex Problem:
Kunar Valley, Afghanistan
 INTENT: Deny income from timber
smuggling to anti-government forces
(Domestic and International)
 Local initiative needed, but larger
structure “centralized.”
 Marshall Plan included extensive
reform to economic structures. Focus
was on “rehabilitation of economic
structure.”
 To achieve INTENT, reform at higher
level is necessary. Requires initiative
from the host nation.
Cognition and Cognitive Processes
 Military or “normatic”
process (logical)(left brain)
 Looks at PARTS, analytic,
objective, sequential
 Mechanical/MARS
 Civilian or “naturalistic”
process (Intuitive)(right
brain)
 Looks at WHOLES, intuitive,
subjective, parallel
 Biological/VENUS
Critical Thinking
 “Critical thinking is a cognitive
process that “examines
assumptions, discerns hidden
values, evaluates evidence, and
assess conclusions. ”
 The intent of using cognitive
skills or strategies is to increase
the probability of a desirable
outcome (reduce risk of failure,
or the loss or waste of
resources).
 It is used to describe thinking
that is purposeful, reasoned, and
goal directed.”
Truman & Marshall – Military Leaders
DESIGN
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Understanding ill-structured problems.
Anticipating change
Creating opportunities
Recognizing and managing transitions
FRAMING
Frame the ENVIRONMENT – considerations
include HISTORY, Culture, relationships,
conflicts,
Frame the PROBLEM – considerations include
both friendly and adversary logic/thinking.
Frame the SOLUTION – considerations include
strategy, parallel and sequential activities,
relationships, resources, teaching and learning
mechanisms, risks, orchestration
Variation on a
Theme
 Tanzania 2008
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Energy Scandal (Like
ENRON, but in state-run
utility)/Crisis in Kenya
Tanzanian REFORM
$700 million in
Millennium Challenge
Funding
Investment in
COMMERCIAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
Regional Initiative to
reduce trade barriers /
restrictions
Variation on a Theme?
 DESIGN and the NEW SILK ROAD?
Variation on a Theme?
 DESIGN and the Arab Spring?
US faces a broad and COMPLEX array of challenges…, WE
must now build the sources of American strength and
influence, and shape an international order capable of
overcoming the challenges of the 21st century.
National Security Strategy
The United States believes certain
values are universal
 This include Individual’s:
 Freedom to speak their mind,
 Assemble without fear,
 Worship as they please,
 Choose their own leaders,
 Dignity, tolerance, and equality among all people
 Fair and equitable administration of justice
National Security Strategy
Lessons of the Marshall Plan
 How you make PEACE is as
vital and important a decision
as how you make WAR
 Those who PROFIT from
War will directly or indirectly
oppose PEACE
 Marshall Plan did not try to
save the whole world all at
once – prioritized and
focused limited resources
 Lessons if viewed in context
can be adapted and applied to
other regions
 Lessons can be extrapolated
to other aspects of
RECOVERY and
DEVELOPMENT
 Broader lesson of the
Marshall Plan is not not
just transition from WAR
to PEACE – and seeking a
more perfect peace - but
how a civilized world
recovers from CHAOS and
restores ORDER
Partnership for 21st Century Skills
http://diplomacy.state.gov/exhibitions/pdf/MP_Education_Packet.pdf
http://diplomacy.state.gov/exhibitions/onlineexhibitions/c23800.htm
21st Century Interdisciplinary
Themes/On-Line Curriculum Aids
 Global awareness
 Financial, economic,
business and
entrepreneurial literacy
 Civic literacy
 Health literacy
 Environmental literacy
The true national object in war, as in
peace, is a more perfect peace.
QUESTIONS?