8th October 2014
David Baird, Service Manager
Andrew Lee, Principal Information Analyst,
Health & Social Care Information
ISD, Public Health & Intelligence
better information --> better decisions --> better health
Joint Strategic Commissioning
Information to Intelligence
For Improved Outcomes
What’s coming next
and How we Can help
The Future
Evaluation
Value
What’s
available Now
Forecasting
Database
queries
Static
reports
Good
Data
Predictive
Modelling
Intelligence
Knowledge
Information
Difficulty
The Challenge
17%
25%
• Aged 65+ rec HC
• Rec 10+ hours HC
51,145
31%
• 2035 – Population aged 65+
40%
£4.6bn
• Days lost to delays 491,000
• Cost of delays
• 2012 – Population aged 65+
£93m
48%
20%
• Total spend aged
65+
50%
• Hospital Spend (£2.3bn
61%
• Emerg adm (£1.4bn)
• Stay < 2 days
• Had multiple admissions
The Future
• Strategic Plan established
• Co-Productive Approach
Analyse
• Aware of Current and Future Demands
•Service User Pathways
•Risk Prediction
Plan
•Identify areas for Service Change
• Quantify Cost Impact
•Investment and Dis-Investment
• Scenario Planning
Review
• Evaluating Service Impact
Do
• Developed Skill Sets
• Identified Areas for Building Capacity
• Personal Outcomes Approach (at the heart of your decisions)
• Evidence Based Decisions
Information: What’s Available Now
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
CHP Profiles
Hospital Admissions and A & E
Delayed Discharges
SPARRA and ACP Planning
Prescribing & Polypharmacy
Efficiency & Productivity Scorecard
NASA linkage
Workforce and Workload
Care Homes
Social Care Census
Respite survey
Mental Health and Learning Disabilities
Care Inspectorate
Information: What’s Coming Next
Health & Social Care Data Integration &
Intelligence project (HSCDIIP)
Key Objective
•
To develop a nationally linked Health and Social care file
at an individual service user level (Activity & Costs)
Four Key Work streams
•
Inputs
•
Information Governance
•
IT solution
•
Outputs
Information: What’s Coming Next
Information: What’s Available Now
Paint the current picture
Population Projections
Home Care
Admission Practice
Resource Consumption
Delayed Discharges
Information: What’s Available Now
Paint the current picture
Home Care
Care Homes
Local Data Sets
Information: What’s Coming Next
Population Projections
Home Care
Admission Practice
Delayed Discharges
Information: What’s Coming Next
Population Projections
Home Care
“Analysis is one of the most important activities
in the commissioning cycle.
Poor analysis of past or future trends will result
in Admission
flawed Practice
commissioning decisions
wasted
Delayedand
Discharges
resources”
Social Work Inspection Agency (SWIA) Guide to Strategic Commissioning
Information – How we Can Help
Understand Variation in Spend
All Partnerships (All Ages) per weighted capita
Information – How we Can Help
Understand Resource Use for Cohorts of Clients
Information – How we Can Help
Service User X: female, age 72, lives alone, diabetic since 68
Year 2009
J
Prescriptions £1,159
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
No record of Homecare
Added to WL
OP assessment
Treatment (DC;
Added to WL (ophthalmology; £70) Treatment (DC;
ophthalmology;
ophthalmology;
Added to WL
procedure; £976) procedure; £976)
Added to QoF
Dementia
Register
A&E (£103)
Year 2010
J
F
Em admission
(gen med; 3 days;
£1,323)
Prescriptions £1,179
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Homecare (364hrs; £6,137)
A&E (£103)
Em admission
(gen med; 24 days; £8,042)
Em admission
(resp med;
procedure;
4 days; £1721)
Delayed
Discharge (Home)
Diagnosed CHD
HC +
ACP
73 Days in
acute setting at
cost of £27,711
IC
42 Days in
acute setting at
Prescriptions
(£1,159)
cost of £16,522
Year 2011
J
F
A&E (£103)
Em admission
(gen med; 2 days; £882)
M
A
M
Transfer Geriatrics
(40 days; £15,640)
J
J
A
S
Discharge to Care Home;
O
N
D
Information – How we Can Help
Identify areas of high resource use to help first
year of planning
Hospital & GP prescribing resources 2012/13
100%
90%
80%
£2.6bn
70%
4,322,546
60%
50%
40%
30%
£2.6bn
20%
10%
0%
102,628
Information – How we Can Help
Forecast resource impact based on
a ‘do nothing’ Scenario
See Andrew - example
Example:
West –Dunbartonshire
ACPs
Information
How we Can Help
Information – How we Can Help
• Predictive Analysis / Scenario Planning
‒ Modelling Impact of Service Redesign
‒ Model various scenario's
‒ Establish potential options
• Releasable costs / PBMA
‒ Understand ‘Real’ financial implication of service change
‒ PBMA
‒ Evidence Based Decisions
Evaluation
Performance
Monitoring
Evaluation
Assessment
Benchmarking
What Works
Indicators
Impact Analysis
Outcomes
Outcomes
Information to Intelligence
For Improved Outcomes
Public Health Expertise
Value
Forecasting
Guidance
Database
queries
Static
reports
Good
Data
Evaluation
Predictive
Modelling
Intelligence
Knowledge
Analytical
Support
Information
Difficulty