Employment and skills: research
evidence for policy making
Will Bartlett
London School of Economics
Outline
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Impact of economic crisis on labour market
New methods to measure skill mismatch
Policy process
Evidence-based policy making (EBPM)
Conclusions
Forthcoming book (LSEE research network)
7/11/12
Will Bartlett, LSEE
1
Developments in the enlargement
countries
• Enlargement countries severely affected by
economic crisis
• Collapse of external financial inflows
• Rising unemployment
• Need for new growth model based on
improved competitiveness and labour skills
• Need, therefore, for better and more effective
policy making
13/04/2015
Will Bartlett, European Institute, LSE
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Unemployment rate (LFS, 2009-11)
Slovenia
8.2
EU-27
9.7
Croatia
13.5
Greece
2009
17.7
2011
Spain
21.7
Serbia
23.7
Bosnia
27.6
0
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5
10
15
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25
30
3
Increase in unemployment rate, 200911
100%
90%
86.3%
80%
70%
60%
48.4%
50%
39.0%
40%
33.1%
30%
29.0%
20.6%
20%
7.8%
10%
0%
Greece
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Croatia
Slovenia
Serbia
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Bosnia
Spain
EU-27
4
Unemployment rate, Serbia, 2001-11
30
26.2
25
22.9
24.7
23.7
21.0
20
20.2
17.8
15.8
15
14.5
15.8
15.2
10
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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New methods to measure skill
mismatch
• Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen, Debora Gatelli,
part of ETF ‘Match’ project
• Various indicators of skill mismatch:
– Coefficient of variation
– Variance of unemployment rate
– Proportional measure of mismatch
– Occupational measure - kurtosis
– Beveridge curve analysis
– Wage differentials across education levels
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Skill mismatch: coefficient of variation
2.5
2.0
1.5
Serbia
Croatia
1.0
0.5
0.0
2005
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2006
2007
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2008
2009
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Skill mismatch by education level:
Croatia (2005-10) (proportions)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
Total
0.6
Male
Female
0.4
0.2
0.0
ISCED 1
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ISCED 2
ISCED 3
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ISCED 5
8
Skill mismatch by education level:
Montenegro (2007-10)(proportions)
2.5
2.0
1.5
Total
Male
1.0
Female
0.5
0.0
Primary school
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Vocational
education
Secondary
education
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University
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Skill mismatch by education level:
Serbia(2007-10)(proportions)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
Total
0.6
Male
Female
0.4
0.2
0.0
Low
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Medium
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High
10
Lifelong Learning (% adult population)
18
16
15.9
14
12
10.1
10
8
6
3.4
4
2.3
2
1.6
1.2
Romania
Bulgaria
0
Slovenia
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EU15
Macedonia
Croatia
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Policy conclusions
1) reform the secondary and vocational education systems
2) improve the labour market matching for women workers
through provision of publicly provided nursery and
kindergarten education for young children
3) give special encouragement to employers to take on
younger skilled workers through job subsidies and
internships
4) encourage transfer of skills from foreign owned
companies to small domestic firms
5) Encourage employers to provide in-house training (LLL)
6) provide of improved skill forecasts to professionals in
career and education guidance for adults as well as school
leavers
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Evidence Based Policy Making
• Are studies such as this useful to policy
makers?
• Do policy makers make use of research
evidence?
• What are the drivers of policy making?
• Are single studies reliable?
• How can research studies be adapted to the
needs of policy makers?
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Policy process in ‘EU enlargement’
countries
• Policy process may differ from developed
countries
– Close links between politicians and business elite
• state capture
– Lack of permanent civil service to transmit policy
lessons
– Poor functioning of social councils
– Little engagement of NGOs
– Advocacy coalitions
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Policy transfer
• Governments often draw lessons from other
countries
• What are the causes of policy failure?
– Inappropriate conditionality
– Inappropriate emulation
– misaligned objectives between different actors
• Example: lifelong learning policies and EQL
adoption (Alexander Kleibrink study)
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Evidence-based Policy Making (EBPM)
• Modern use of term originates in evidencebased medicine – extended to health policy
• UK Labour government 1997 announced
modernisation of government based on EBPM
• Focus on “what works” irrespective of
ideology
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Systematic reviews
• Systematic review as a method for EBPM
• Policy makers lack time to assess the evidence
• Individual studies insufficient to make
informed policy decisions
• Synthesis of several studies is needed
• Use well defined transparent procedures to
minimise bias
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Learning about systematic review
• EPPI Centre - An Institute of Education centre focusing on
systematic reviews in education, health and social policy.
• Campbell Collaboration - Independent organisation
producing systematic reviews on what works for education,
health and social policy to build healthy and stable
societies.
• Cochrane Collaboration - Independent organisations
producing systematic reviews for health interventions.
• Collaboration for Environmental Evidence - Independent
organisation producing systematic reviews for
environmental management.
• International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)
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Policy evaluation and pilot projects
• Evaluation of policies after they have been
implemented
• Pilot programmes to test effectiveness
• These several problems:
– Too long time for effects to be revealed; policy
may be changed in meantime
– Simultaneous effects of several pilots in action
areas may confound results
– Hawthorn effects of ‘pioneering spirit’ of pilots
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Policy evaluation - alternatives
• Long-term evaluation of existing programmes
– Best value regime for local government in UK
• Difference-in-difference method
– Identify ‘treatment group’ versus ‘non-treatment
group’
• Calculate differential response of different groups
to policy treatment (policy intervention)
– Early tracking (Hanushek & Woessman, 2006)
– Selective schooling (Bonhomme & Sauder, 2011)
– Beautiful Serbia ALMP policy (Bonin & Rinne, 2006)
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Conclusions
• Economic crisis emphasises need for EBPM for skills policy
• Evidence-based policy widely promoted in developed
countries
– Systematic reviews
– Evaluation studies
– But subject to critique
• Policy process in transition countries creates obstacles to
use of EBPM
• Way forward:
– Encourage use of systematic review
– Difference in difference analyses of specific policies
– But be aware of advocacy coalitions and state capture issues
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LSEE Research Network Book: Part
I
• Chapter 2: Skill mismatch in enlargement and
neighbourhood countries – Will Bartlett, Jens Johansen and
Debora Gatelli
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• Chapter 3: Skill surveys in Serbia: an overview and a case
study - Mihail Arandarenko and Galjina Ognjanov
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• Chapter 4: Skill needs on the labour market in Macedonia –
Jovan Pejkovski
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• Chapter 5: Educational origins and occupational
destinations? Dissecting the education-job mismatch in
school to work transitions in Croatia - Teo Matković
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LSEE Research Network Book: Part II
• Chapter 6: Lifelong learning policies in Southeastern Europe: from
emulation of EU policies to tailor-made reforms? - Alexander
Kleibrink
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• Chapter 7: Is government effective in promoting human capital? The
case of Macedonia - Maja Nestorovska and Nikica MojsoskaBlazevski
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• Chapter 8: Skills matching in Croatian SME sector and competencebased education and training: progress and prospects - Nevenka
Čučković and Will Bartlett
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• Chapter 9: Reversing the Bosnian “brain drain”: opportunities and
challenges – Sasha Barnes and Nermin Oruc
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Thank you for your attention!!!
7/11/12
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