ETHIOPIA IN THE 21ST CENTURY:
CHANGING ALLIANCES, NEW ENEMIES,
AND POLITICAL (IN)STABILITY
Jan Záhořík, Ph.D.
Centre of African Studies
University of West Bohemia in Pilsen, CZE
INTRODUCTION



Interconnection of global and local
How global trends affect socio-economic and
political development of Ethiopia
How local realities influence political (in)stability
in Ethiopia
HORN OF AFRICA

War-torn countries: Sudan, Somalia

Instability: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia

Relative stability: Somaliland (paradoxically??)
ETHIOPIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST
CENTURY

Involvement in Somalia‘s conflict

Ogaden, Oromia, Gambella

Cross-border violence, ethnicity

Centralization

Dictatorship
MACRO PERSPECTIVE



Until 1990s: EU, USA, etc.
Now: China, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran,
United Arab Emirates
Regional hegemony, strategic position
MICRO PERSPECTIVE



Meles Zenawi: dictatorship
Ethnic favoritism, elimination of opposition
parties/activists
EPRDF: 545 seats of 547
OROMO NATIONALISM

Various forms of nationalism

Govt involved in local conflicts and tensions

Diaspora – main sponsor of anti-govt propaganda


Lack of coherence – regional and religious
differences
Great potential of Oromia
POLITICAL ISLAM

Recent phenomenon

Saudi Arabia and Iran – ideological export

Dire Dawa, Harar, Jimma

Radical interpretations of Islam

Govt supporting some Islamic organizations =
weakening the Oromo nationalism
WHERE FOREIGN MEETS LOCAL

Rennaissance dam, etc.

No public debate

Dubious results

Corruption

Land grabbing

International interests vs. local needs and demands
CONCLUSION
1)
Ethiopia wants to be a regional leader
(economic, political, diplomatic)
2)
Internal problems are so huge that such
projects as Rennaissance dam can
dramatically worsen already fragile socioeconomic situation
3)
Political and religious tensions on the rise
due to the failure of the govt to provide basic
needs and demands to ordinary people
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Merci beaucoup
 Vielen dank
 Děkuji velice
 Mutio obrigado
 Tack så mycket
 Muchas gracias
 Amesegenalehu
