20th Century Solutions
to
21st Century Problems?
1st November 2013
John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH
“Gentlemen, we have
run out of money – now
we have to think.”
Winston Churchill
A mouse trap?
OR
Free cheese
and a challenge?
The Context
“The challenges we face converge,
intertwine and often remain largely
beyond our understanding. Most of us
suspect that the “experts” don’t really
know what’s going on and that as a
species we’ve released forces that are
neither managed nor manageable.”
Thomas Homer-Dixon
(Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009
Violence Prevention is a
Shared Agenda and we
must respond together with
Science and Compassion.
The Context
W
I
C
K
E
D
P
R
O
B
L
E
M
Wicked Problem
Rittel & Webber 1973
• No clear definition of a wicked problem
• We can make wicked problems better or worse
• It’s not clear when wicked problems are fixed
• Every attempt to fix a wicked problem will
change it
• The planner has no right to be wrong
The WHAT
“Interpersonal violence – violence
between individuals in families and
communities – is a Public Health
problem.”
Etienne Krug
Director
Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention
World health Organisation
2004
Consequences: long-term
Death
ACEs are fundamental
risk factors for disease
and early death
Disease, Disability
Early
Death
and Social Problems
Adoption of
Health-risk Behaviors
Social, Emotional, &
Cognitive Impairment
Adverse Childhood Experiences
Toxic Stress
Conception
What do Employers Want ?
Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap
Planning and organising
Customer handling
Problem solving
Team working
Oral communication
Other technical and practical skills
Written communication
Basic computer literacy / using IT
Strategic management
Advanced IT or software
Using numbers
Literacy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website,
Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.
Sense of Coherence
• Your world is structured, predictable and
explicable
• You have the internal resources to meet the
demands
• The demands are seen as challenges worthy of
investment and engagement
Sir Harry Burns
CMO 2011
(Aaron Antonovsky)
Violence – Contagious Process?
• Clustering
• Epidemic Wave
• Transmission
Gary Slutkin
Cure Violence
Clustering?
Shared Agenda
Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide
Percentage of pupils performing well
or very well at relevant level by
deprivation.
Thanks to Gary Slutkin for this slide
Purpose
Government Economic Strategy
National Outcomes
NATIONAL PERFORMANCE
SOAs
birth
LIFE JOURNEY
10
16
18
Valuing our Young People
Early Years Framework
More Choices More Chances
Curriculum for Excellence
GIRFEC
Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB)
YJ Framework
NATIONAL POLICIES
Road to Recovery (Drugs)
Alcohol framework
Equally Well (Health Inequalities)
Achieving our Potential (Poverty)
Redemption
An old idea that still works
Everyone can change
“We cannot live only for
ourselves. A thousand fibers
connect us with our fellow men;
and among those fibers, as
sympathetic threads, our actions
run as causes, and they come
back to us as effects.”
Herman Melville
“An infinitely large
number of
infinitesimally small
actions”
Leo Tolstoy
Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide
Join us…
On the web: www.actiononviolence.org.uk
On Twitter: @johncarnochan
On Facebook: look for “vruscotland”