全球棉花供求预测
Global Supply and Demand Prospects
Ray Butler,
Managing Director, Cotlook Limited
www.cotlook.com
Zhengzhou 2010
三十年价格走势
Price developments over three decades
140.00
Cotlook A指数
The Cotlook A Index
120.00
美分/磅
US cents per lb
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
美国农业法案变化
US Farm law change
0.00
01-Aug-80
中国加入WTO
China's WTO entry
苏联解体
Soviet Union break-up
01-Aug-90
Zhengzhou 2010
01-Aug-00
A指数含义
A Index description
•
CFR远东港口包括曼谷、南查邦、雅加达、香港、槟榔屿、巴生、新加坡、
釜山，日本和中国的一些主要港口、马尼拉、台南、基隆、三宝垄、泗水。
其他港口的运费差异也已经考虑在内。CFR main Far Eastern ports including Bangkok,
Laemchabang, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Penang, Kelang, Singapore, Busan, principal Japanese and Chinese ports, Manila, Tainan,
Keelung, Semarang, Surabaya). Minor freight differences for other destinations are taken into account.
•
报价基准为成本加运费（CFR），即期信用证，1%代理佣金及合理利润。The
terms quoted are Cost and Freight, Letter of Credit at sight, including one percent agent's commission and
notional profit.
•
质量标准为 M 1-3/32”.
•
计算：每个工作日从一篮子棉花品种中选取5个最低的远东到岸价计算平均
值，这些棉花品种来自美国（三种）、印度、坦桑尼亚、乌兹别克、西非
（每天不超过两个报价）、澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、叙利亚、希腊、土耳
其、巴基斯坦以及中国。Calculation: Average on any day of the five cheapest from a basket of
Quality basis: Middling 1-3/32”.
growths, including three US, Indian, Tanzanian, Uzbekistan , any two from four West African, Australian,
Brazilian, Mexican, Syrian, Greek, Turkish, Pakistan and Chinese.
Zhengzhou 2010
Cotlook 双指数系统
Zhengzhou 2010
Cotlook指数与郑州期货价格
Cotlook A v ZCE
20,000
ZCE Sep 10
19,000
ZCE Jan 10
元每吨
yuan per tonne
18,000
17,000
16,000
15,000
2009/10 Cotlook
2010/11 Cotlook A
14,000
13,000
29-Jan-10
28-Feb-10
31-Mar-10
30-Apr-10
31-May-10
Zhengzhou 2010
30-Jun-10
31-Jul-10
31-Aug-10
消费量 Consumption
全球 World
中国 China
30,000
千吨 thou tonnes
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Zhengzhou 2010
全球棉花面积
World cotton area
38,000
36,000
千公顷 thou hectares
34,000
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
2000/01
2003/04
Zhengzhou 2010
2006/07
2009/10
全球库存变化
3,000
2,000
千吨 thou tonnes
1,000
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
-4,000
Zhengzhou 2010
World stocks
Cotlook指数 The Cotlook A Index
100.00
95.00
美分/磅 US cents per lb
90.00
85.00
80.00
75.00
70.00
65.00
60.00
55.00
50.00
03-Aug-09
06-Oct-09
09-Dec-09
11-Feb-10
Zhengzhou 2010
16-Apr-10
19-Jun-10
不确定因素
Uncertainties
• 产量
Crop sizes
• 政府政策
Government Policies
• 纺织需求情况
Health of textile demand
Zhengzhou 2010
2010/11全球棉花面积
2010/11 world cotton area
38,000
36,000
34,000
千公顷
thou hectares
32,000
30,000
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
2001/02
2004/05
Zhengzhou 2010
2007/08
2010/11
美国产量
US production
6,000
千吨 thou tonnes
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2001/02
2004/05
Zhengzhou 2010
2007/08
2010/11
截至7月31日的美棉新花远期销售
US Forward Sales at July 31
7,000,000
6,000,000
装运包 running bales
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
1994
1998
Zhengzhou 2010
2002
2006
2010
近10年美棉出口趋势
US exports – ten year history
4,500
美国农业部预
测
USDA forecast
4,000
3,500
千吨 thou tonnes
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Zhengzhou 2010
印度棉花供求
India: supply and use
6,000
产量+进口量 Production + imports
消费量+出口量 Consumption + exports
千吨 thou tonnes
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
年度(10月1日开始) Season beginning October 1
Zhengzhou 2010
2008
2009
2010
印度结转库存
India’s carryover stocks
2010年政府预期目标 Presumed 2010 govt target
1,400印度棉花咨询委员会数据
Indian CAB estimates
库存消费比 SUR
35%
31%
1,200
30%
千吨 thou tonnes
1,000
25%
24%
800
20%
20%
600
20%
15%
15%
16%
400
10%
200
5%
-
0%
1-Oct-06
1-Oct-07
1-Oct-08
Zhengzhou 2010
1-Oct-09
1-Oct-10
巴基斯坦棉花供求
Pakistan: production and consumption
3,000
产量 Production
消费量 Consumption
2,500
千吨 thou tonnes
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
Zhengzhou 2010
2008/09
2010/11
乌兹别克棉花供求
Uzbekistan: production and consumption
产量 Production
消费量 Consumption
千吨 thou tonnes
1,000
500
0
2000/01
2003/04
2006/07
Zhengzhou 2010
2009/10
非洲法郎区棉花产量
AFZ: production
3,000
千吨 thou tonnes
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
Zhengzhou 2010
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
巴西棉花供求
Brazil: supply and use
1,800,000
产量
产量+进口量 Production & imports
1,600,000
Production
消费量+出口量 Consumption & exports
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Zhengzhou 2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
澳大利亚棉花产量
Australian production
900
800
千吨 thou tonnes
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
Zhengzhou 2010
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
全球理论库存变化
Changes in theoretical world stocks
3,000
100.00
Cotlook A Index season's average
2,000
90.00
80.00
60.00
-
50.00
-1,000
40.00
30.00
-2,000
20.00
-3,000
10.00
-4,000
0.00
Zhengzhou 2010
US cents per lb
70.00
美分/磅
千吨
thou tonnes
1,000
Average to September 2,
2010
政府措施
Government policies
• 中国
China
• 印度
India
• 美国农业法案争议
US Farm Bill debate
Zhengzhou 2010
Cotlook 棉纱指数与A指数
Cotlook Yarn Index v A Index
2005 = 100
180.00
170.00
160.00
150.00
140.00
2010/11 Cotlook指数与
130.00
(Oct/Nov and later
shipment)
120.00
110.00
A指数（与2005年指数对比，％） A Index (expressed as % of base value)
棉纱指数 Yarn Index
100.00
Series3
90.00
07-Aug-09
Zhengzhou 2010
欲询更多信息
For more information
• 英文信息，请登录 Cotlook网站
English language services and international cotton prices
www.cotlook.com
• 中文信息，请登录中国棉花信息网
Chinese-language news and information
• www.cottonchina.org
Zhengzhou 2010