Complexity in Public Policy:
Metaphors and Methods
Philip Haynes
What do we mean by policy?
Government action
 Linking of decisions
 Intervention – political power

What do we mean by policy?
– management,
professionalism…
 Implementation
 Multidisciplinary
Policy Process

Policy as a rational process
Making sense of it all?
Patterns
 Time and Space

Patterns
 Action
over time policy trends
 Spatial levels global, national,
local,
organisation,
team…
Policy systems
External Factors
External Factors
Complexity Theory


Complex dynamic systems are constructed by
the interaction of instability and stability.
Includes chaos theory, but goes beyond it
Stability
Instability
Complex or complicated?
Some core metaphors
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Instability (chaos)
Nested systems
Attractors (order in disorder)
Interaction (not cause and effect)
Self organisation (order from within)
Chaos and
instability
Instability and chaos in policy
Private residential social care homes, aged 65 and over, Eng.
annual % change
160000
30.00
140000
25.00
120000
20.00
totals
100000
80000
15.00
60000
10.00
40000
5.00
20000
0
0.00
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
Year
1990
1991
1992
1993
Types of change
Instability
percentage change
80
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
output over time
8
9
10
Types of change
percentage change
Comple xity
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
output over time
8
9
10
Policy and Time
Evolution of macro policy
 Which path does policy action take?

1. Path dependency
2. Punctuated equilibrium
3. Complex stability-instability
Some core metaphors


Instability (chaos)
Nested systems (fractals)
Nested systems
Central
Government
Sub National
Government
Local
Government
Organisation B
Organisation A
Actor, 1., 2, 3, etc
Some core metaphors



Instability (chaos)
Nested systems (fractals)
Attractors (order in the disorder)
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Attractor
UK inflation (t-1) 1987-2004
Attractor
UK inflation 1987-1990
Attractor
UK inflation 1990--1997
Attractor
UK inflation 1997-2005
Attractor
UK inflation 1987-2005
Attractors - qualitative

Kontoupolous – ‘competing logics in
public policy’
Managerialism
Marketisation
Professionalism
Consumerism
User involvement
Citizenship
Bureaucratic rules
Some core metaphors




Instability (chaos)
Nested systems (fractals)
Attractors (order in the disorder)
Interaction (rather than cause and effect)
A
B
System Interaction
Some core metaphors





Instability (chaos)
Nested systems (fractals)
Attractors (order in the disorder)
Interaction (rather than cause and effect)
Self organisation (Order from within)
Self organisation
Methods

How we can make sense of such
complexity?
‘We maybe able to able to learn a lot about
the kind of dynamics involved in the
functioning of such systems…Complexity
theory underscores the importance of
contingent factors… No general model can
capture these singularities.’
Cilliers, 2001, p.145
Qualitative Comparative Method
Charles Ragin
Use of quantitative thresholds to make
qualitative judgements
 Better consideration of cases
 Multiple ‘complex’ paths to outcome

Single quantitative model
As complex patterns
QCA – truth tables
H W
0 1
M
1
S
0
CH
0
A
0
AR
0
Out
C
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
id
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
GERMANY
GB
US
AUSTRIA
HUNG
NOR,CAN
POLAND
JAPAN
SPAIN
Logical Statements
Outcome 1 = higher expenditure on LTC
policy
h*
(M*s*ch) + (m*S*a)
N= (8)
(5)
+ (3)
Country statements
h * m * S * ch * a * ar
(GB and USA)
Patterns – workflow diagrams
Clearing
Publicity
Student Induction
Admissions
Learning and Teaching delivery
Open days
Research grants
Progression
Subject strength
Staff
Staff expertise
deployment
Staff turn over
Assessment
Research publications
Staff stress
Higher Degree Recruitment
Examination Boards
Awards and Graduation
Student stress
System Stress
(Info. Systems)
Timetabling
Personal tutoring
Student services
Student retention
Indicator Dashboard
19.78 SSRs
Student
Retention
Publications cited
Student Targets
Budget
Grants
awarded
Implications for practice
‘Decision makers should be content
with setting minimum specifications,
establishing boundaries and letting
the system settle into a condition that
satisfies the constraints placed on it.’
(Kernick 2004, p137)’
Airport paperback: five point
summary
Don’t micro manage
 Do both synthesis and analysis

(the big picture is an important as the detail)
Celebrate positive feedback systems
 Some places are trapped in negative
feedback, consider intervening on a
large scale.
 Listen to local context and ‘stories’
