EPIC ITB; teacher’s forum
30 May 2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Candidates
% of candidate shift
1,967
1,907
3.1% decrease on 2008
2,177 14.1% increase on 2009
2,287
5.1% increase on 2010
2,087
8.7% decrease on 2011
2,300
2,287
2,200
2,177
2,100
2,000
2,087
1,967
1,907
1,900
Where will this
end up ??
1,800
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Candidates
694
553
668
782
743
531
% of candidate shift
20% decrease on 2008
20% increase on 2009
17% incline on 2010
5% decline on 2011
28% decline on 2012
32% decrease in candidate sittings in past 2 years
800
782
750
700
743
694
668
650
600
553
550
531
500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
Candidates
164
159
181
190
174
112
% of candidate shift
3%
14%
5%
8%
35%
decrease on 2008
increase on 2009
increase on 2010
decrease on 2011
decrease on 2012
41% decrease in those sitting in past 2 years
* 2013 figures are for January to May, only
summary; candidates
1. Enrolment versus exit exams
 2008-09 intakes down by 15-20% on pre-GFC years 1
 32% decrease in 2013 Jan-May LEP’s, since peak of 2011 1
 2010-12 intake back to pre-GFC levels, but 2-3 years from exiting
1
2. Economic climate
 Companies doing it tougher 2
 Apprentices increasingly being laid off, or forced to take leave
 Major works projects drying up in Victoria 4
3
3. Rising unemployment
 Melbourne's unemployment up from 4.5% to 6.2% 5
 Victoria’s falling home building approvals hurting electrical industry
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
EPIC ITB Profiling & LEA records – 2008/13
HIA Housing 100 Report – Sep 2012
EPIC Jobs Survey Report – 2010/11
The Melbourne Age – Feb 2013
The Melbourne Age – April 2012
Master’s Electrician’s Australia – April 2013
6
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
%
61%
65%
65%
66%
% of candidate shift
6.5% increase on 2008
no change against 2009
0.1% increase on 2010
2012
57%
13% decrease on 2011
65%
65%
60%
65%
66%
61%
57%
55%
50%
46% (Jan to April)
45%
Where will this end up ??
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
%
63%
63%
63%
62%
57%
46%
% of candidate shift
no change against 2008
no change against 2009
1% decrease on 2010
8% decrease on 2011
16% decrease on 2012
26% decrease in pass rates in 2 years
65%
63%
63%
63%
62%
60%
57%
55%
50%
45%
46%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
%
14%
14%
14%
13%
18%
% of candidate shift
no change against 2008
no change against 2009
1% decrease on 2010
38% increase on 2011
26% (Jan to April)
24%
22%
20%
18%
18%
16%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
12%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
%
% of candidate shift
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
15%
16%
20%
14%
19%
1%
25%
30%
36%
2013
26%
37% increase on 2012
increase on 2008
increase on 2009
decrease on 2010
increase on 2011
More than 1 in 4 with 3+ resits so far in 2013
26%
25%
20%
20%
19%
16%
15%
15%
14%
10%
5%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
Passed
100
104
118
127
106
50
% of those that sat
61%
65%
65%
67%
61%
45%
61% decrease in 1st time pass rates in past 2 years
* 2013 figures are for January to April, only
summary; passes
Year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
3+ resits
23
23
26
26
32
25
% of those that sat
14.1%
14.5%
14.3%
12.3%
18.3%
26.4%
* 2013 figures are for January to April, only
summary; 3+ resits
1. Exodus of teachers
• Older and experienced teachers retiring
• Budget cuts costing jobs, and/or contract extensions
• Teachers who now assess the LEA, cannot teach the LEA
2. Teacher role shifts
• Newer teachers still on LEA learning curve
• Less teachers employed in many colleges
• May 2012 State budget impacting on college resources
• Experienced teachers elevated to RTO managers
3. Cost of training
• May 2012 State budget lifts cap on tuition fees
• Apprentices increasingly bearing brunt of higher fees
• Higher fees resulting in less tutorials being done
• Lower cost of LEA resulting in less take up of tutorial