Olympic Transportation
Planning For London 2012
A Peak Flow And Modal Share
Analysis For Rail Usage At The
Stratford Regional Station
What Is The Problem?
• The Olympics presents the logistical
challenge of hosting 26 World Championships
at the same time
• The problem is understanding the travel
tendencies of the spectators and ensuring
that the infrastructure in place will be able to
handle their travel demands
Why Does It Matter?
• The congestion occurs at concentrated
periods
• The funds to upgrade infrastructure are
limited
– This means that infrastructure to serve the
games must be in line with the Host City’s
own transportation plan
• The Olympics must do its best not to
drastically impede the daily movements
of the Host City’s citizens
• The Olympics gives the transportation
department an opportunity to reshape
the travel behavior of its citizens
Research And Data
• Past Olympics
– Static v. Dynamic Analysis
• The Olympic Delivery Authority’s
Transportation Plan
– Peak Flow Analysis
• Transport for London
– Travel Demand Survey
• Department for Transport
– Statistics
• Office of Rail Regulation
– Rail usage statistics
• Mayor of London- London’s Transportation
Strategy
Analysis
• Data was analyzed in two ways
– Projected modal share of passengers
– Peak flow of rail passengers
• Projected rail, bus, car, walking, and
cycling numbers into 2012.
– Linear Regression
– High R2 terms ( >.89)
• Next, Data is taken from the Olympic
Delivery Authority
– Modal split for spectators arriving at
Olympic Park
– Peak period of passenger arrival (100,000)
from 8:00 to 9:00 am
• Then the yearly projections earlier are
reduced to the peak hourly data
– Assume consistent passenger usage
– Assume peak hourly usage at Stratford is
consistent with the rest of Greater London
• The modal split data is analyzed
geographically in 2 ways
– The Olympic Delivery Authority has
projected geographic distribution of
spectators
– Calculate traffic modal splits for trips
involving East London
Results and Conclusions
• 1st - Rails usage projections at Olympic Park
are plausible
– Private transport -> rail
– Nearly all spectators outside of London -> rail
• 2nd- Bus usage numbers seem very low
– Current ODA projection: 3%
– Projected 2012 bus usage in East London:
14.47%
Future Research
• Olympic Route Network analysis
– VISSIM, SATURN, TRANSYT
• Designing a simulation tool to allow for
flexible scenario analysis