Data Mining&Business Planning of Engineering/Research Projects
Presentation 1
Dr. Gábor Pauler,
Associate Professor
Faculty of Sciences,
University of Pécs
Tel:30/9015-488 E-mail:
pauler@t-online.hu
Content of the Presentation
Introduction
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd:
STEP Analysis
Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Crop producing
Less depressing cityline
Recreational gardens
Air filtering
Cost effectiveness
Weaknesses
Technical weaknesses
Usage weaknesses
Business weaknesses
Recreational/aestethical weaknesses
Opportunities
Advertisements
Cooperation with safety film manufacturers
Threatens
Competition
High development costs
Introduction: Describing Business Ideas
In the business planning process, the first major step is Describing your
business ideas (Ötletleírás). This is also the most controversial step, because:
Best entrepeneurs usually have very strong leading personality:
They maniacly believe in their business ideas and push them through
regardless their promises, family, friends, health, safety, wealth, lives spent
(„Never ask about my first million” /Rockefeller, Standard Oil/)
But to survive long term, they should also feel some responsibility for their
employees, community and environment (eg. Rockefeller Foundation)
They usually do not finish university: the more educated you are, the more
risks you can foresee and you opt for being an employee for small money
 Their drive is good when they fight obstacles, or stand up after bankruptcy
 But it is bad because they can make limited use of business planning: they
will never invest money and effort into figuring out their idea may not work!
If you are not a „natural born entrepeneur”: just a researcher, professional, etc.
needs to develope business ideas and plans, it is still not an easy story:
As you naturally would like your idea to succeed, you under your own
pressure, and cannot evaluate your idea objectively
If you ask your friends/team members to evaluate it, there can be a
Groupthink-effect (Csoportnyomás-effektus) to distort objective evaluation
You could ask non-committed experts to evaluate your idea, but there is a
danger that they won’t examine it thoroughly, or will steal the idea
In our CASE STUDY 1, we show two simple verbal techniques on a fictive
product idea, which force you consider disadvantages and shortcomings also:
Social, Traditional, Economic, Political (STEP) Analysis: How your
product/service idea is related to the environment?
Strenghts, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats (SWOT) Analysis: How
your product/service idea works internally?
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis 1
László Kovács, founder of Miracle Roof Ltd. (http://www.miracleroof.hu ), a
small Hungarian family business in building carpentry industry was a small
men with one big dream: To cover Budapest with „green top”, converting roofs
of old buildings into his Miracle Roof.
S:Social Environment (Társadalmi környezet):
He spent his childhood in the downtown slum (Gettó) part of Budapest
called Józsefváros, which mostly built at the end of 19th century. This part
of the city is very common among most Central-European major cities:
rapid industrialization in the era demanded constant inflow of poor, heavily
overpopulated agricultural people in the industrial outskirts of large cities
and become factory workers.
T:Traditional background (Tradíciók):
There was a relative lack of public green areas, and hevy air pollution of
coal-based industrial environment turned these districts „black cities” being
the nest of many ethnical, racial conflicts, revolts, deviant lifestyles, mental
illnesses, alienation, crimes.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: STEP Analysis 2
E:Economic conditions (Közgazdasági feltételek):
Budget constraints of inhabitants resulted densely populated districts with
poor quality-small apartment houses, underdeveloped road network and
under-designed utility (Közmű) infrastructure.
P:Political environment (Politikai környezet):
In most of western part of Europe, post-industrial development after WWII
reorganized these districts and made them more liveable. However in
Central-Eastern Europe communist regimes in the Soviet era had not
enough intention and resources to make the same reorganization, leaving
back these slums in very bad condition, and reorganization could start only
after fall of the communism in 1989-1990.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: Product idea 1
László’s idea is connected with boosting reorganization process with
utilizing building roofs (Tető) with the help of new materials and
technologies:
The tipical 4-5 story residential building of the 2nd half of 19th century in
Central Europen cities built in large quantites was made from brick walls
with limited use a of reinforced concrete (Vasbeton) structures. Roof
construction was typically tiles (Cserép) on wooden carpentry (Ácsolat)
work. In most of the buildings roof space was not utilized, because:
Brick building material and masonry (Kőműves) workforce was
relatively cheap that time
Habitable roof construction required more skilled carpentry work and
time to assemble
Void roof space allowed allowed lighter and cheaper ceiling structure
Miracle Roof is to turn these void roof spaces into crop-producing
(Zöldségtermelő) or recreational (Rekreációs) greenhouses (Üvegház):
Removing old tiles
Repairing/replacing amortized elements of roof carpentry, and cover it
with thick layer of UV- and humidity resistant coating (Felületkezelés)
Laying high-tensile strength (Szakítószilárdság), UV-resistant,
transparent safety film on carpentry instead of tiling, glued on carpentry
structure with an UV-resistant adhesive (Ragasztó)
Laying hard foam-based (Lépésálló műanyaghab) heat insulation
(Szigetelés) and humidity insulation layers on ceiling (Plafon)
Installing irrigation (Öntözés) and ventillation (Szellőzés) appliances
used at greenhouses
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: Product idea 2
Installing soil (Termőföld) and plants in portable plastic soil boxes connected
to irrigation/drain (Lefolyó) system:
They can be placed on top of ceiling if it has the structural stenght for that.
This way we can also get some recreational area between plant layer and
roof sheeting (Tetőfedés)
Content of the Presentation
Introduction
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd:
STEP Analysis
Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Crop producing
Less depressing cityline
Recreational gardens
Air filtering
Cost effectiveness
Weaknesses
Technical weaknesses
Usage weaknesses
Business weaknesses
Recreational/aestethical weaknesses
Opportunities
Advertisements
Cooperation with safety film manufacturers
Threatens
Competition
High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT Analysis 1
Alternatively, they can be hanged from rafters (Tetőgerenda), if ceiling
is too weak: as safety film is uncomparably lighter (0.1-0.2kg/m2) than
tiles (75-100kg/m2), original rafters in good condition could hold at
least equally weighted soil boxes with soil, water and plants. In this
case roof space is a service area for crop producing.
Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities Threats (SWOT) Analysis
(SWOT-elemzés):
Strengths: The major outcome of the idea is producing crops, vegetables pretty close to the place of consumption utilizing solar energy
and saving its transportation costs. Up to date, metabolism of plants is
still the most effective (75-85%) known method to absorb radiation
energy of sun even considering the latest solar panel technology
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 1
The second major outcome from the idea is less depressing view of slum districts at
reduced cost
In our first exaple, we replace roof tiling with film and dense utility crop producing
system beneath that
In our second example, we show a recreational garden with limited crop producing
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 2
In our third example, we show a childrens playground or kindergarden application, where children can avoid heavily polluted air
and public safety issues of playing on the streets of a slum area
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Strengths 3
Moreover, according to recent innovations of Lane
Environmental Plc., UK (http://www.laneenvironmental.co.uk/?id=5), layer of plant leaves and
soil kept humid by trickle irrigation system
(Csepegtető öntözés) can act as a very effective selfrenewable filter of polluted air intaking into the A/C
system (Légkondícionálás) of the building,
substituting expensive diposable air filters in A/C
systems.
Some plants are known (e.g. Thyrrea Varensis, etc.)
secreting anti-bacterial agents on their leaves and
roots, forming a natural defense line against the
usual accumulating Legionella bacteria in condense
water reservoirs of A/C systems, which can cause
rapid and violent bacterial infection in senior people
or people with degraded immune system because of
other deseases. In traditional A/C systems defense
against Legionella requires buying expensive antibacterial agents.
Last but not least strength of the solution is cost effectiveness, which can be a major
factor in reconstruction of slum areas:
It does not impose any major structural change in the building, just renovation of
roof carpentry structure into good condition
High tensile safety film is easier to apply and requires less skill and training than
tiling, as it can be rolled down continuosly in 1.8-2m wide rolls from the ridge
(Tetőgerinc) on roof battens (Tetőléc) prepared with adhesive
Besides the safety film, adhesive, and coating of roof carpentry, it does not require
any special high-tech materials: ceiling heat/humidity insulation, greenhouse
equipment ar all comercially available, well-proven technologies
Content of the Presentation
Introduction
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd:
STEP Analysis
Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Crop producing
Less depressing cityline
Recreational gardens
Air filtering
Cost effectiveness
Weaknesses
Technical weaknesses
Usage weaknesses
Business weaknesses
Recreational/aestethical weaknesses
Opportunities
Advertisements
Cooperation with safety film manufacturers
Threatens
Competition
High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 1
For correct business planning, we have to collect internal
weaknesses of the solution also:
Technology weaknesses: Exposure on the rooftop is a harsh
environment of any kind of technology:
high level of radiation from the sun (increasing with global
warming),
corrosive effect humidity and acids from precipitation
(Csapadék),
highest daily difference in temperature, thermal expansion
stresses
static stress to hold thick layer of snow,
expansion stresses of freezing water in small cavities
dynamic stresses of windstorms (can be both pushing and lifting
force depend ing on wind direction and strength),
bursting power of ice particles,
birds nest building activity,
aggressive chemical agents from birds’ guano,
insects attacking organic materials,
errosive effect of dust traveling by high-speed wind.
All these require chemically highly stable and strong materials, and
it did not happen by chance that ceramic roof tiling holds its position
in the last 3000 years, and – if assembled correctly – it can still beat
up any high tech roofing solutions in endurance.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 2
Miracle Roof can fail technologically at several points (in decreasing order of
significance):
High humidity plants and wood: wooden roof carpentry is not designed to
maintain such a high level humidity as usual in a commercial cropproducing greenhouses. The optimal level of humidity for most plants
destroys uncoated wooden surfaces very quickly. Therefore, wooden
structure should be covered with thick layer of penetrative impregnation
and coating, which fills cracks if the wood created by drying up live wood
after cutting. The coating should be ellastic to follow static and dynamic
torsion of wooden structure by snow/wind pressure and daily thermal
expansion.
Radiation of sun: as excellent radiation shield role of tiling is eliminated,
the wood coating, the adhesive and safety film should resist UV-rays of the
sun. Most organic material becomes rigid, fragile, full with micro-cracks
when exposed UV-radiation for long time, as a result of cracking polimer
macromolecular structure.
Dust in wind: Dust is kept in constant moving by traffic in busy downtowns
even in calm weather, but in strong wind, sharp quartz-micro particles of
dust traveling with that has considerable scratching effect making safety
film surface opaque limiting vision through and making it better target for
agressive chemicals
Air pressure in wind: Compared with roof tiling, safety film roof sheeting is
an almost airtight layer. When strong wind blows across roof section air
pressure decreases considerably, because of Bernoulli-effect (wind has to
travel longer distance above roof, which increases speed and decreases
pressure). While air pressure inside roof space stays normal, creating
quite strong lifting effect on an airtight structure
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 3
Bellies in film sheeting under weight of snow: This is also a critical factor
how much the safety film stretches under constant stress: no stretch at all
would require infinite tensile strenght film and roof battens. So in the
reality, the film forms small, chain-curve (Láncgörbe)-shaped bellies
between the supporting roof battens under the weight of snow. Its up to the
ellasticity of film to compensate this when the snow melted. large bellies
are unaesthetic and water is captured there. The ideal material for film
shrinks somewhat in raising temperature of spring to compensate bellies
created in winter.
Iron nails in roof battens: Protruding iron nails left in roof battens by
ancient carpenters can damage film mechanically and contact with ironoxide in humid environment makes most polimer-based materials rigid and
fragile, therefore surface of roof battens has to be faceted (Csiszol) before
coating.
Bursting power of ice particles: there are bulletproof safety films also, so
current technology can contain the problem, but increased defence may
increase costs
Usage weaknesses of Miracle Roof:
Lack of radiation/thermal insulation: Eliminating roof tiling makes
necessary to install a thermal/water insulation layer on ceiling, increasing
costs and increasing stress on ceiling structure, which may not designed
for this, however modern hard foam-based insultaions have minimal
weight. Continuos layer of plant leaves at utility greenhouses can have
considerable radiation insulation effect, but density of leaves may vary by
yearly lifecycle of plants. Also, layer of soil have considerable radiation
insulation and some thermal insulation effect, but its highly depending on
air/water content.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 4
Greenhouse-effect: heat-trap property of greenhouses, which enables
them for intensive crop producing can be very inconvenient for people
living beneath that at top floors of the building without effective
thermail/radiation insulation. However energy from greenhouse effect
can be used to drive passive ventillation system reducing electricity
consumption of traditional A/C.
Lack of humidity buffering and vetillation: ceramic roof tile is porous
(Porózus) material with considerable humidity buffering, equalizing
humidity level in roof space. The airtight film itself has no any
ventillation and humidity buffering. Without properly designed
ventillation system, thick layer of green algae will accumulate on its
internal surface like in aquariums.
Business weaknesses:
Internal logistics: However a crop producer may be appealed by
eliminating transportation cost from distant agricultural area to
downtown, there can be serious logistic disadvantages also: all
equipment, soil and plants has to be carried up at 4-5th floor, harvested
produce has to be carried down. This cannot be realistic without lift
(preferably not passanger but cargo lift servicing roof space also).
However in slum area, lifts may not always be installed or working
properly.
Fragmentation of planting: Another problem is that usable are of roof
spaces are limited and gardeners have to work in numerous locations
to maintain the same area as a large agricultural greenhouse.
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Weaknesses 5
Profit extraction: Producing plants is a low-tech, relatively lowinvestment way of utilizing solar energy, but profit extraction may
depend on crop prices controlled by supply/demand. Extra supply of
produce from rooftop greenhouses may reduce prices and profit
extraction itself. You can compare this with producing electricity from
solar energy, which requires bloody huge investment, but price of
electric energy is constantly increasing and demand is almost unlimited
at long term.
Leisure/Aesthetical weaknesses: Considering that Miracle Roof can also
be utilized as recreational graden, playground, kindergarden, etc. there are
other difficulties:
Habitable greenhouse requires considerable ventillation, and humidity
level should be lower than optimal for intensive producing plants
Internal structure of roof carpentry not designed to be habitable may
prevent creating larger open spaces necessary for recreational activity:
wind bracers (Szélmerevítő), hanging beams (Mestergerenda), props
(Támoszlopok), neck collars (Kereszt gerenda)
There are numerous vents in roof space disturbing habitability:
Old brick chimneys (Kémény) may not be correctly insulated and
release fume gases in roof space
Sewer gas vents may spread disturbing odors, etc.
Some of the targeted buildings are historic landmarks or located in
landmark districts, which may prevent Miracle Roof conversion by
regulations of local/governmental authorities
Content of the Presentation
Introduction
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd:
STEP Analysis
Product idea: Miracle Roof roof space greenhouse
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Crop producing
Less depressing cityline
Recreational gardens
Air filtering
Cost effectiveness
Weaknesses
Technical weaknesses
Usage weaknesses
Business weaknesses
Recreational/aestethical weaknesses
Opportunities
Advertisements
Cooperation with safety film manufacturers
Threatens
Competition
High development costs
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Opportunities
For correct business planning,we should consider external opportunities our product generates long term:
Additional income could be generated with the rafterhanged soil boxes version if coloured flowers are
planted in a pixel-matrix pattern to form ads on roof
surface visible from street level
This can be especially useful if architectural
regulations by local authority forbid usage of large
advertisement posters on buildings
Our natural allies can be businesses in window safety
film industry. For example:
http://solargard.com/Residential/Products_Safety
http://www.apexfilms.ca/glossary.htm
http://www.shop4windowfilms.co.uk/
Window safety film is relatively expensive(50-100EUR/
m2) compared to other plastic foils, because it is an
exclusive product applied on relatively small area of
windows. Large scale use on rooftops would enable
mass production, and considerable development cost
of its material would be shared among lot more m2
sold, so cost could be lowered to the range of (2025EUR/m2), which is almost comparable with cost of
good quality roof tiling (12-18EUR/m2)
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 1
Finally, we should consider external threatens: One good thing in business world is
that you are NEVER alone. There is always
some kind of competition. Even if someone
invented an innovative product or design:
In broader extent, you compete with all
businesses in the are for buying power
(Vásárlóerő) of the population. Talking
about slum areas, pubs, illegal brandy
distilleries and drog dealers are also
competitors reducing already limited
buying power
Chinese will copy your product idea in 5
minutes
There are partially competing products
already on the market: Green-roof or bioroof systems are there since decades:
http://www.greenroofs.com/projects/
pview.php?id=802
http://www.cefil.co.uk/ecoroof.html
http://www.arch.mcgill.ca/prof/sijpkes
/arch304/D+C2004website/Website2/roof-biodome.jpg
http://www.wildcenter.org/index.php?
sub=29
http://www.metrogreenbusiness.com/
news/qa.php/2008/12/21/p1671
http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m20
08/teams/lastortugas/v_housing.html
http://www.re-nest.com/renest/gardening/bio-tray-module-forgreen-roofs-065730
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 2
Fortunately for us, there are some common disadvantages in
external green roof applications:
They can be applied on flat or moderately angled roofs,
otherwise maintenance of plants becomes hazardous work
requiring special skill and mountain climbing equipment
However flatter roofs can be a problem on continental or colder
climate, when thick layer of snow can accumulate on it and
over-stress it.
Roof sheeting has to be strong enough not just support
insulations, soil and plants but personell and tools also
All existing external green roof systems (lets see for example):
http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/902/
http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/research/genomics/ecoli/greenroof/benefits.php
http://www.green-roofing.co.uk/index.php?module=system:3
http://www.richmondregional.org/Planning/Stormwater/green_roof.htm
http://www.inhabitat.com/2006/05/16/green-rooftops-conference/
http://www.coolflatroof.com/green-roof.php
http://energysmartideas.com/blog/category/alternative-building-materials/
http://www.heidler.com/GreenRoofing.aspx
require complex and expensive layer structure - which is hard
to apply on complex roof forms – created from:
Structural support deck
Water insulation
Heat insulation
Inpenetrable root barrier (most roots
burst plastic foils with suprising force)
Drainage layer
Aeration lyer
CASE STUDY 1: Miracle Roof Ltd: SWOT: Threatens 3
Also, there are existing recreational public
greenhouse structures, but these are
usually highly complex and expensive
systems made of steel/ glass/ reinforced
concrete modules maintained by theme
parks, zoo parks, shopping centers on high
budget
Mr. Kovács hopes to shoot out an
uncovered market niche (Piaci rés) with
Miracle Roof:
being practically more usable that
external green roofs, especially in the
winter
being much less expensive than
professional greenhouses and still
maintain recreational advantages in the
middle of a highly polluted, crowded
downtown area
The second most serious threaten is
whether commercial crop producers pick up
the idea or totally reject it
And last but not least, there is a threaten
that development cost of the roof carpentry
coating, and UV-resistant adhesive are
very-very far from being covered from
applying Miracle Roof in just one building.
Thats why we have to estimate expected
demand and make intensive business
planning described in next session.
References
Roof carpentry:
http://www.builderbill-diy-help.com/roof.html
Window safety films:
http://solargard.com/Residential/Products_Safety
http://www.apexfilms.ca/glossary.htm
http://www.shop4windowfilms.co.uk/
Green roof systems:
http://www.greenroofs.com/projects/pview.php?id=802
http://www.cefil.co.uk/ecoroof.html
http://www.arch.mcgill.ca/prof/sijpkes/arch304/D+C2004website/Website2/roof-biodome.jpg
http://www.wildcenter.org/index.php?sub=29
http://www.metrogreenbusiness.com/news/qa.php/2008/12/21/p1671
http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2008/teams/lastortugas/v_housing.html
http://www.re-nest.com/re-nest/gardening/bio-tray-module-for-green-roofs065730
http://www.ecogeek.org/content/view/902/
http://www.glwi.uwm.edu/research/genomics/ecoli/greenroof/benefits.php
http://www.green-roofing.co.uk/index.php?module=system:3
http://www.richmondregional.org/Planning/Stormwater/green_roof.htm
http://www.inhabitat.com/2006/05/16/green-rooftops-conference/
http://www.coolflatroof.com/green-roof.php
http://energysmartideas.com/blog/category/alternative-building-materials/
http://www.heidler.com/GreenRoofing.aspx