India-Pakistan Nuclear Arms Race
The Buzz
o 1947- India takes
independence from
British rule
o 1971- War with Pakistan
ends in formation of
Bangladesh and East
Pakistan
o 1974- India’s first
underground nuclear test
o 1998- Pakistan follows
India and carries out first
nuclear test
Celebrity Marriages
o 1948- Soviet Union recognizes Pakistan
 Pakistani Prime Minister chooses to visit U.S.
o 1956- Pakistan condones Hungarian repression
o 1957- Soviet Union supports India in Kashmir
o 1971- Bangladesh War
o 1972- Simla Agreement
o 1980s- Pakistan assists in expelling Soviet
troops from Afghanistan
o 2001- Pakistan supports U.S. in severing ties
with Taliban
“The Bling”
o India has second strike capability, Pakistan does
not
o India has enjoyed at least a 2.5:1 military
advantage and a 4:1 overall capability
advantage
o “Pakistan being the conventionally weaker
power has employed such strategies as
terrorism, proxy wars, and low-to-medium
intensity violence post 1987”
o “Pakistan’s authoritarian military and hybrid
governments have usually been more
escalatory”
Indecent Proposals
A nuclear armed Pakistan cannot be deterred like other
nuclear powers.
Affirmative
o Ideological claim Kashmir
o Alliances to major powers
o Technical safety compromise
Negative
o Security of the homeland
o Interdependence
Democratic states are more likely
to use nuclear weapons
responsibly.
Negative
o History- U.S. World War II
o Preventative War
o History- Soviet Union and Red China
Affirmative
o Kant’s Democratic Peace
o Liberal Tradition
These states should be recognized
as “nuclear powers” by the NPT
Agree
o Allow regulation and control of programs
o Ban spreading of weapons
o Improve US-India relations
Disagree
o Precedent of recognizing whatever nuclear
power proliferates
o India and Pakistan are able to increase their
nuclear knowledge
The UN should put sanctions in place until
the states give up their nuclear weapons
o Balance international system
o Set precedent for other nations who want
to proliferate
o Most effective on Pakistan
Disagree
o Strain relations
o Internal destabilization
o Upset Balance of Power of nuclear dyad
The presence of nuclear weapons on the
subcontinent increases the probability of
conventional and nuclear war
Agree
o Pakistan’s chief nuclear scientist
o Pakistan lacks second strike capability
o Military-Government relations are questionable
Disagree
o Statistically, war has decreased since 1987
o Cuban missile crisis
o MAD
Scenes from the next episode
Scenario: The Pakistani Military has pulled a
coup d’etat and taken control of all nuclear
facilities and airfields days after a
successful nuclear test. The terrorist
organization PKK is conducting
uncontrolled operations in Kashmir and
the new Pakistani government has sent
troops to the Kashmir border. India
immediately followed and mobilized to
their border.