Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
Trends in Agricultural Trade
Peter S Liapis
Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD
Joint ICTSD-FAO expert meeting Geneva Switzerland, March 25-26 2010
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
1
Agricultural Exports (1995-2008)
1,200
Includes Intra EU
Billion USD
1,000
800
600
400
Excludes Intra EU
200
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
2
Total Merchandise Export (1995-2008)
16,000
Billions USD
14,000
Includes Intra EU
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
Excludes Intra EU
2,000
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
3
Agriculture share of total merchandise
trade
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
4
Agricultural exports by Income Group
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
5
Share of Agricultural Exports by Income
Group
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
6
Agricultural trade is increasingly SouthSouth
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
7
Share of North-North trade is diminishing
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
8
What Agricultural Products are Being
Exported?
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
9
Share of Agricultural Exports by Type
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
10
Income Level and Share of
Agricultural Exports
Process products
95-97
06-08
46.6
51.0
High income
OECD
60.6
Semi-Process products
95-97
06-08
22.6
19.6
20.4
36.3
34.1
Upper middle
income
Lower middle
income
25.3
95-97
06-08
6.8
7.4
13.3
14.5
15.1
13.0
17.6
17.3
Bulk products
95-97
06-08
23.9
22.0
5.7
5.2
21.1
22.2
29.0
22.5
59.2
High income
Non OECD
29.7
Horticultural products
30.1
28.1
21.1
28.4
30.1
68.3
Low income
6.4
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
11.3
15.3
16.4
10.1
56.2
16.1
11
Income Level and Share of
Agricultural Imports
Process products
95-97
36.9
06-08
Semi-Process products
95-97
24.7
21.9
22.1
19.3
22.9
14.8
16.0
10.3
10.1
7.3
10.0
27.9
33.4
22.4
31.2
Lower middle
income
3.9
36.2
33.8
31.7
06-08
23.6
17.4
16.7
18.3
25.2
21.7
34.6
35.4
29.6
32.7
5.5
29.0
Low income
2.6
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
95-97
45.9
Upper middle
income
28.1
06-08
52.3
High income
Non OECD
44.7
95-97
Bulk products
44.7
High income
OECD
50.9
06-08
Horticultural products
4.4
12
Top Agricultural Exporters
1995
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
2008
13
Top Agricultural Importers
1995
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
2008
14
Agricultural Imports share of GDP
Average 1995-97
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
Average 2006-08
15
Key macroeconomic assumptions
• 2009 global economic
recession
• 2010 global economic
recovery
• 2% annual inflation in
OECD; higher in BRICs
• stronger US dollar
• stable policy regime
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
16
Main outlook messages
• Agriculture more resilient to
global economic crisis
• Real prices to remain at or
above 1997-2006 levels
• Production increases in the
10 to 40% range
• Developing countries driving
demand and export growth
• Expansion of biofuels –
largely driven by mandates
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
17
Real prices at or above historical levels
160
140
% change relative to 1997-2006 average
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
Wheat Coarse
grains
Rice Oilseed Veget. Raw
Beef Pigmeat Butter
Oil
sugar (pacific)(pacific)
Average 2007-08
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
SMP
Crude
oil
Average 2009-18
18
Steady growth of global production
Production Growth from 2006-08 average to 2018
50
Growth realised until 2008
Growth from 2008 to 2018
40
30
%
20
10
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
SMP
WMP
Cheese
Butter
poultry
Pigmeat
Beef
Sugar
Veget. Oils
Oilmeals
Oilseeds
Rice
Coarse grains
Wheat
0
19
Output growth from 2004-08 to 2018
Output Growth is largest in non-OECD area
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
20
Demand growth from 2004-08 to 2018
Demand growth is largest in non-OECD area
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
21
Outlook for dairy products consumption
25
million tonnes
OECD
non-OECD
20
15
10
5
0
2006- 2018
08
Butter
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
2006- 2018
08
Cheese
2006- 2018
08
SMP
2006- 2018
08
WMP
22
Export growth in developing countries
Export growth from 2006-08 average to 2018
60
50
40
30
%
20
10
0
-10
Wheat
Coarse
grains
Oilseeds
OECD
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
Sugar
Pigmeat
Non-OECD
Poultry
SMP
World
23
NonOECD
Food remains the main use for wheat …
2018
Food use
Feed use
Biofuels
Wheat Use Shares – World (2018)
Other
2006-08
+ 34 Mt
OECD
2018
2%
2006-08
9%
World
0
100
200
300
Million tonnes
400
500
18%
2018
2006-08
71%
0
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
25
…while feed and fuel pushDemand
coarse
grain demand up
Shares (2018) - OECD
NonOECD
11%
2018
2006-08
24%
Food use
Feed use
Biofuels
Other
+ 50 Mt
2018
OECD
8%
56%
2006-08
Demand Shares (2018) – World
0
100
200
300
400
Million tonnes
500
600
700
13%
19%
World
2018
12%
2006-08
0
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
56%
1400
27
EU
Biodiesel increasingly important
demand driver for vegetable oil
2018
Demand shares - WORLD (2018)
USA
2006-08
2018
20%
Indonesia
2006-08
+ 90 Mt
non-biofuel use
2018
80%
biofuel use
2006-08
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Million tonnes
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
29
Summing Up Future Prospects …
• Global demand has been strong, with
… higher growth outside the OECD area, and
… for higher value food and non-food products.
• Increased price volatility is expected.
• The impact of the economic crisis is unclear,
… as are future policy directions.
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
30
Policy responses to Food Security Concerns
 Rely on objective information & analysis
 Provide humanitarian aid and short-term support
to increase output in developing countries
 Keep import and export markets open; conclude
ambitious DDA agreement
 Review/reform biofuel support policies
 Monitor/address balance of payments situation
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
31
Medium & long term policy responses…
 Improve the purchasing power of the poor in
developing countries – economy wide growth is
needed to contribute to poverty reduction
 Improve the productivity of global agriculture,
particularly in developing countries - education,
infrastructure, research and development,
technology transfer and innovation are essential
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
32
Conclusion
 Short term measures are vital to address food
security today, but medium & long term actions are
also needed
 More open markets are necessary, but insufficient
 An increased, long term, sustained commitment to
development, both within and outside agriculture,
is essential
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
33
Conclusion
• The fundamental factor is – supply response
– Price transmission to local markets
– Technological progress
– Need to address climate change/water
availability/sustainability
• Food affordability (poverty reduction) is the key
food security issue
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
34
Thank You
Trade and Agriculture Directorate
Visit our website:
www.oecd.org/agriculture
Contact us:
Pete.liapis@oecd.org
Trade & Agriculture Directorate
35