Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive Services
Spring and early Summer 2015
Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Thursday April 2nd 2015
Climate Outlook verification:
Temperature March 2015
CPC Temperature Outlook
for March 2015
Temperatures actually
observed in March 2015
(issued Feb 28th 2015)
(departure from normal)
Climate Outlook verification:
Precipitation March 2015
CPC Precipitation Outlook
for March 2015
Precipitation actually
observed in March 2015
(issued Feb 28th 2015)
(percentage of normal)
Climate Summary since Jan 1st 2015:
Temperature
Precipitation
(departure
from normal)
(percentage of
normal)
El Nino Status as of March 5th 2015:
ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory
“In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions
will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015. Due to the expected
weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated.”
-from March 5th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
April 2015
Temperatures
Most likely scenario:
Unusually warm temperatures continue
in California and along the coast
Precipitation
Most likely scenario:
No trend was forecast
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook
May through July 2015
Temperatures
Precipitation
Most likely scenario:
Most likely scenario:
Unusually warm temperatures continue
Dry west of Cascades but not inland.
NWCC Predictive Services
outlook :
April and May 2015
The Northwest Geographic Area is out of fire
season. Fire danger indices are not sufficiently
elevated to support unusual risk of Significant
Fires in the region. Even during spells of dry
weather, conditions in April and May are
historically not conducive to large, costly
wildfires.
NWCC Predictive Services
outlook :
June and July 2015
Elevated risk of large, costly fires (mainly from
lightning) is expected to expand northward from
California into Oregon and Washington in June
and cover most of the region by July. This
designation of elevated Significant Fire risk is
based on warm temperatures, low snowpack,
and early greenup.
NWCC Predictive Services
note :
Due to poor snowpack at higher elevations and
generally dry conditions since the first of the year, fire
management units are advised to use caution during
prescribed burns in windy weather.
Next Outlook:
May
th
4 2015