Successful Mission
Strategies
Evidence Based
Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Web: www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk
Twitter: @ChurchGrowthRD
Email: churchgrowth@churchofengland.org
Why Plan?
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
‘For which of you, desiring to build a tower, does not first sit down
and count the cost, whether he has enough to complete it?
Otherwise, when he has laid a foundation and is not able to finish, all
who see it begin to mock him, saying, “This man began to build and
was not able to finish”,’ (Luke 14:28-30).
‘Sluggards do not plough in season; so at harvest time they look but
find nothing’ (Proverbs 20: 4).
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Why a Strategy?
•
•
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
‘..The term “strategy” should mean a cohesive response to an
important challenge. Unlike a stand-alone decision or a goal, a
strategy is a coherent set of analyses, concepts, policies,
arguments, and actions that respond to a ... challenge’.
‘At the core, strategy is about focus, and most complex
organisations don’t focus their resources. Instead, they pursue
multiple goals at once, not concentrating enough resources to
achieve a breakthrough in any of them.. ..Strategy is at least as
much about what an organisation does not do as it is about what
it does’.
* Richard P Rumelt, Good Strategy, Bad Strategy, Profile Books, London, 2011.
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Why a Strategy?
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• We have a problem…..
(or we may do if we don’t do anything)
• We have an opportunity…
(and if we don’t act on it, we may have a problem - or
at best the opportunity may pass)
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Why a Church Strategy?
• To advance our gospel vision
• To exercise good stewardship
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Why a Deanery Strategy?
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• Decentralised decision-making is often best
• Local knowledge, local resources
• Decentralised decision-making cannot do everything:
• Address need and opportunity
• Share learning
• Share resources and/or achieve critical mass
• Co-ordinated action can enhance the ability to make change
happen
• There needs to be a balance between decentralised and coordinated action
• But ... there needs to be a truly shared vision, goals - and strategy
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Good Strategy =
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• A diagnosis
•
•
•
•
simplifies the complexity of reality
identifies certain aspects of the situation as critical
defines the domain of action
Data
information
knowledge
wisdom
• A shared, guiding vision or policy
• a sign-post, the broad direction forward
• Coherent actions
• Coordinated policies, resources and planned actions
• Join up mission, ministry and money
• Feasible
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Developing Strategy
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• Where are interventions most needed?


What’s the data and evidence telling us?
What’s our guiding policy?
• What interventions will be most fruitful?

What’s the evidence telling us?
• What opportunities to intervene do we have?
• Focus effort and resources - “better to do a few things well”

The essence of a plan should answer “Who, what, where, when”?
• How will we know if we’re doing well?

Milestones, measurement
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Embedding Strategy
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Developing Strategy
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Church Growth Research
(…some of the evidence)
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Youth & Children…
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• The Church is declining due to its failure to attract and
retain children & young people
Adult leavers and joiners balance out
48% of churches have <5 under 16’s
Ages 14 and 18-25 are key points where we ‘leak’
Only 36% of Anglicans think it important for their children to
learn the faith
• Churches employing a Children’s / Youth Worker are twice as
likely to be growing as those which do not.
•
•
•
•
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Fresh Expressions of Church…
• There is significant growth through Fresh Expressions of
Church
• Around 21,000 attending in 10 dioceses surveyed (equivalent of
an additional medium sized diocese)
• 52% are led by lay people, over 40% ‘lay-lay’ (no status or
training)
• For every 1 person sent we get 2.6 more people joining
• 25% existing Christians, 35% de-churched, 40% non-churched
• 66% carry on growing or retain growth.
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Intentionality…
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• Intentionality is crucial
• Prioritizing growth significantly correlated with actual growth
• Growth is more likely where churches are clear about who
they are and what they do: in terms of style, tradition and
outreach.
• Having a clear mission and purpose is important: Of those who
reported this 64% had grown compared with only 26% of
those that did not.
• Vitality comes with reflection and choice: “churches cannot
soar on auto-pilot”
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Leadership…
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• Good leadership from the clergy is important
• Clergy need to motivate, envision and innovate
• Of those clergy who scored highly for ‘motivating’ around two
thirds reported growth compared with less than 10% of those
who were ‘below average on that quality
• Results were similar for those who scored highly for envisioning
• They need to look outwards, set vision and engage with proactively
engage with newcomers
• Empathizing and persisting were associated with decline
• Clergy need to drive vision and change
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
The laity…
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• The laity need to be willing and involved
• Good lay leadership and rotation of key lay roles are associated
with growth
• A willingness to experience change is important – ‘new people
disrupting a cosy club’
• Where the laity are discipled - (e.g. through nurture courses)
and there is a strong emphasis on preparing the laity to be
Christians in their daily lives - there is more likely to be growth
• Growth is often the result of the laity inviting family and friends
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Using data to understand the issues
Developing Strategy
(Using Data)
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Mission and Finance Strength
An analysis has been made of the mission and finance strength of the parishes within the diocese, by placing
them within a quadrant diagram with mission strength on the x-axis and financial strength on the y-axis.
Financial strength is calculated by reference to the
unrestricted income of a parish and whether or not it
exceeds their total ministry costs and training costs.
Mission strength is calculated by looking at the annual
growth or decline in the average weekly attendance of a
parish over the last 5 years. This assumes that over a
long enough period, a church which is strong in mission
terms will experience attendance growth.
Whilst this objective analysis provides a firm and consistent basis for decision-making, it needs to be
supplemented by analysis of other data (see later in the report).
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Mission and Finance Strength
The diagram shows the
distribution of the parishes
in the diocese, according
to their mission and
financial strength. The
largest concentration of
parishes can be seen in the
bottom left quadrant, i.e.
parishes that are declining
in size and are also
financially struggling. 16%
of parishes are in the
opposite quadrant where
there has been growth and
the parish is financially
strong.
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Mission and Finance Strength
This diagram again shows
parishes according to their
mission and financial
strength but this time the
size of each ‘bubble’ on the
graph represents the
parish’s average weekly
attendance. This shows
that, although the majority
of parishes are showing
decline (see previous
diagram), the larger ones
tend to be showing
growth. A third of
attendees are in growing
and financially strong
parishes compared to 20%
of attendees within
declining and financially
struggling parishes.
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Adding Other Data
Resourcing Church Growth: Evidence Based Decision-Making
The backing data for the analysis of mission and financial strength, plus other relevant information for each parish,
can help build a more complete picture of the strength (or weakness) of existing ministry, and the opportunities
for change. For example, analysis of a parish’s attendance per population will give some measure of the church’s
impact on its local neighbourhood. Below is a list of some of the measures which are used in the attached analysis
or ones which the diocesan leadership team itself may wish to add.
Factor
Membership
Measure
5 year AWA change, Electoral Roll
Ministry Costs (£)
Full cost of parish ministry to the diocese
Parish Income (£)
Unrestricted + restricted
Demographics
Congregational Age Profile
Ministerial Provision (lay and ordained)
Contextual
Leadership and Direction
Population, IMD, age profile of population
Survey of congregation
Number of ministers (age and length of
tenure)
Other denominations, church schools
Quality of Mission Action Plan (and quality of
leadership?)
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
It is desirable to get as
complete picture as possible
of the context in which a
particular church undertakes
its ministry. At the same
time, the temptation may be
to add more and more data
before any assessment can
really be made. This is likely
to lead to ‘analysis paralysis’:
the loss of sharp focus to
guide any decision-making.
Interventions
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Employ a youth
worker?
Additional
Clergy?
Focus on growth
Fresh
Expression?
Change of
leadership?
Turnaround
team?
Invest in growth
Appoint Pioneer
Minister?
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Church plant?
Continue
sustainable growth
Additional
staff?
Develop
stewardship?
Achieve sustainable
growth
Train lay
leaders?
Developing Strategy
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
• What are the big opportunities facing your deanery this year
for developing the Church’s mission, and spiritual and
numerical growth?
• What information should inform the way the opportunities
are addressed?
• What are the priorities?
• If sufficient information is not available, how can you change
that position?
• Is your deanery mission action plan a good strategy, or is it…
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions
Bad Strategy =
•
Bad strategy is the active avoidance of the hard work of crafting a
good strategy…with these hallmarks:
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•
•
•
Fluff. “... a form of gibberish masquerading as strategic concepts or
arguments … words that are inflated and unnecessarily abstruse to create
the illusion of high-level thinking”.
Failure to face the challenge.
Bad strategy fails to recognise or
define the challenge. If you cannot define the challenge how do you know
you are tackling the right things?
Mistaking goals for strategy. Many bad strategies are just “statements
of desire” rather than plans for overcoming obstacles.
Bad strategic objectives. Strategic objectives are ‘bad’ when they fail
to address critical issues and/or when they are impracticable - or when
there are too many of them!
Successful Mission Strategies: Evidence Based Decision-Making
Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions