9th ORM
The Roles of and Interface between the
Meetings of Ozone Research Managers
and the WMO/UNEP Assessments
under the Montreal Protocol
Michael J. Kurylo – Chair, 8th ORM
USRA / GESTAR, USA
9th Meeting of
Ozone Research Managers of the
Parties to the Vienna Convention
for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
Geneva, Switzerland
14-16 May 2014
9th ORM
Background
• A meeting of Ozone Research Managers of the Parties to
the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone
Layer is required every three years (6 months prior to the
Meeting of the Parties).
• Each ORM meeting will review ongoing research and
monitoring programs for ozone and UV-B to
–
Assess research (including measurement calibration and
archiving) related to the health and environmental effects of
ozone modifications
–
Identify research and monitoring gaps
–
Ensure national and international coordination
–
Develop a set of recommendations for future research and
expanded cooperation in developed and developing countries
9th ORM
• The ORMs and the 3 WMO-UNEP Assessments
(Scientific, Environmental Effects, Technology
and Economic) have very different, yet highly
complementary, roles.
- The ORM is required under the Vienna Convention and its Montreal
Protocol.
- The Assessments are mandated under the Montreal Protocol
- They all serve as communication devices between the research
community (striving for better understanding) and decision makers
(for informed action).
- The Assessment Panel Summaries and the ORM Recommendations
are all presented at the subsequent joint meetings of the
Conference of the Parties to the Vienna Convention and the
Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol.
9th ORM
Within the context of the request of the Parties,
there are:
• Aspects Unique to the Assessments:
–
They enable the Parties to evaluate control measurements
under the Montreal Protocol.
–
They constitute neither policy recommendations nor
research planning documents but provide input for both.
• Aspects Unique to the ORMs:
–
The ORM Reports specifically address research and
monitoring needs in light of scientific understanding
provided by the Assessments.
–
The ORM Reports make specific recommendations to the
Parties regarding international funding for improved
research coordination and networking.
9th ORM
Implementation:
• Agenda Items for 9th ORM Meeting
–
–
–
–
–
–
Review of 8th ORM Recommendations
State of the Ozone Layer presentations including
climate links
Updates on international monitoring programs
Satellite research and monitoring programs (present
and future)
Regional reports on ozone research and monitoring
taking into account the available national reports
Recommendations (Research Needs, Systematic
Observations, Capacity Building, Data Archiving)
The 2014 Ozone Assessment:
Addressing the Needs of the Parties
9th Meeting WMO/UNEP Ozone Research
Managers of the Parties to the Vienna Convention
for the Protection of the Ozone Layer
Geneva, Switzerland
14 May 2014
SAP Co-chairs
Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo)
Paul Newman (USA)
John Pyle (UK)
A.R. Ravishankara (USA)
What is the Scientific
Assessment Panel?
MP Article 6: Assessment and review of
control measures
Beginning in 1990, and at least every four years thereafter, the
Parties shall assess the control measures provided for in Article
2 and Articles 2A to 2I on the basis of available scientific,
environmental, technical and economic information.
UNEP initiated the assessment panel process in 1988 pursuant
to this article.
What is the Scientific Assessment?
What the assessments are:
• “One-stop shopping” for the Parties:
–
–
–
–
•
State of science: What we know & what we don’t, framed in policy-useful terms.
–
–
•
Science of the ozone layer (Scientific Assessment Panel)
Impacts of ozone change (Environmental Effects Panel).
Technology/economics of options (Technology and Economic Assessment Panel)
Synthesis report by all three panels
Scientific documents, prepared & reviewed by the expert communities.
Assessed viewpoints, not reviews.
Customers include scientists, Governments, Industry, and the Public
What the assessments are not:
•
•
They don’t make policy recommendations, but they may include analysis of
policy options.
They are not research-planning documents, nor do they “push” research
projects or needs. (They do identify gaps in information that may limit informed
decision-making). - However, based on the findings and gaps, you can see
what is needed!
What did the Parties to the Montreal
Protocol ask for in the 2014 assessment?
• Terms of reference from the Parties to the Protocol
decided at the 23rd meeting of the Parties in Montreal,
Bali, Indonesia, 21-25 November 2011. Specific request
included:
• A general update of science since the 2010 Assessment
• Key ongoing issues
– Levels of ODS and trends
– Levels of ozone and its trends
– Our understanding of the ozone layer science
• What emerging science
– The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery
– The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes
• Key additional requests from the Parties to the Protocol
The Parties’ Request (Decision XXIII/13)
“Terms of Reference” for the 2014 SAP Report
a. Assessment of the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution, including in respect
of atmospheric changes from, for example, sudden stratospheric warming or accelerated
Brewer-Dobson circulation;
b. Evaluation of the Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic winter/spring ozone depletion and the
predicted changes in these phenomena, with a particular focus on temperatures in the
polar stratosphere;
c. Evaluation of trends in the concentration in the atmosphere of ozone-depleting
substances and their consistency with reported production and consumption of those
substances and the likely implications for the state of the ozone layer and the
atmosphere;
d. Assessment of the interaction between the ozone layer and the atmosphere; including:
i. The effect of polar ozone depletion on tropospheric climate;
ii. The effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling;
e. Description and interpretation of observed ozone changes and ultraviolet radiation,
along with future projections and scenarios for those variables, taking into account
among other things the expected impacts to the atmosphere;
f. Assessment of the effects of ozone-depleting substances and other ozone-relevant
substances, if any, with stratospheric influences, and their degradation products, the
identification of such substances, their ozone-depletion potential and other properties;
g. Identification of any other threats to the ozone layer…
4/8/14
2014 O3 assmt., 2nd draft review,
Boulder CO
10
Timeline
 Discussion Paper circulated for comments by scientific community (Feb.)
2013
 Lead Authors and Chapter Editors established (early Apr)
 Chapter author teams assembled, early preparation steps begin (early May)
 Draft of Chapter outlines (late May)
 1st meeting of Lead Authors, Cochairs, Steering Committee, Chapter Editors (Jun)
 Individual Chapter team meetings (convened by Lead Authors (Jul-Sep)
 Chapter summary bullets and outlines submitted for review (October 1, 2013)
 1st drafts of Chapters completed (30 October, 2013)
 Mail Review of Chapter 1st drafts begins (1 Nov)
 Chapter 1st drafts reviews due (15 Dec.)
2014
 Chapter editor summaries sent to Lead Authors (early Jan.)
 2nd draft of Chapters completed (Mar 12, 2014)
 Review and completion of 2nd (final) draft
 Drafting of Assessment for Decision-Makers begins
 Final drafts of Chapters completed (all cited papers in press) mid-May
 Draft Assessment for Decision-Makers distributed to Panel Reviewers (early Jun)
 Panel Rev. Meeting [discuss/finalize Assessment for Decision-Makers] (JunLes
23-27)
Diablerets
4/8/14
2014 O3 assmt., 2nd draft review,
Boulder CO
11
Ground
Observations
of ODSs
• HCFC-22 & Halon1301 continues to
increase
• CCl4 discrepancy
with emissions
• Discovery of new
CFCs
• See Dr. Ravishankara’s
talk on HFCs
High quality
measurements of
ODSs, GHGs, and
related gases are
crucial for supporting
the MP
Total
Ozone
• Total ozone
shows that
there may be
increases
since 2013.
Attribution? High quality measurements
of total ozone are crucial to
detecting recovery
Ozone profiles are showing evidence of
recovery in the upper stratosphere
High quality measurements
of ozone profiles are crucial
to detecting recovery in the
upper stratosphere
• Ozone time series at 42 km altitude averaged in NH mid-latitude (3560N).
• Ozone shows a strong decline into late 1990s
• Some evidence that ozone is “above” the 1998-2008 average in the
last few years
Is the ozone hole recovering?
Why is the NH
showing large ozone
depletions?
SH ozone seems to
be trending upward.
Recovery?
Interpreting polar ozone requires observations of total ozone, ozone
profiles, and ancillary observations (e.g., winds, T, ClO, HCl)
Stratospheric
Temperatures
• Stratospheric temperatures
have cooled since the late
1970s
• Largest changes are the in
upper stratosphere
• There are serious
disagreements between
differing satellite radiance
processing
Cooling of the
stratosphere is caused
by increasing GHGs.
Global observations of
stratospheric
observations are
needed, plus ground
observations of the
upper stratosphere for
calibration and
validation
SH response
to O3 hole
• Data and models suggest
that a number of
processes in SH summer
are sensitive to long-term
change in the SAM.
• How is the circulation
response to O3 hole
communicated
downward?
• Continued observations
are critical to
understanding climate in
the SH as ozone
rebounds.
Do we have the necessary
observations for diagnosing
the meteorological changes
in the SH as the ozone hole
begins to recover?
Thompson et al. (2011)
Is the Brewer-Dobson circulation accelerating?
Observations of long-lived
species (e.g., SF6 and CO2
for age, H2O for vertical
transport) are necessary to
diagnose the slow BDC
Engel et al. (2009)
Mean age above 24 km. Trend is 0.24±0.22 years of mean age per decade
Climate driven
changes of ozone
transport (20651980)
Li et al. ACP (2009)
See Dr. Pyle’s talk on
Change of ozone (top, DU/km) and
“Links between
Ozone
total
ozone in 2 layers and total
column.
and Climate”
Stream lines show an increase of
both the lower branch of the BD
circulation and the upper branch.
In the upper stratosphere, the
change in column is uniform in
latitude, while below 15 hPa, the
column changes are transport
driven.
Thank you for your
attention!