2012 International Coral Reef Symposium
Cairns, Australia
Seasonal dynamical prediction of coral
bleaching risk for reef management
www.cawcr.gov.au
Claire Spillman & Aurel Griesser
Session 10: Modelling reef futures
9 July 2012
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Warming oceans
High ocean temperatures are the primary cause of
mass coral bleaching events
Global warming likely to increase bleaching
frequency and severity of bleaching events
How to best manage our
coral reefs under climate
change?
Observed and
projected annual
GBR mean SST
under IPCC
scenarios A2 & B1
(Lough et al 2006;
Donner et al. 2009)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Donner et al 2005, 2009; Lough et al 2006
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Coral reef management
timescales
MostDecision
useful for
proactive
marine management
Minimal warning time
Reactive management
Days
Weather forecasting
Satellite nowcasts
Early window for
implementation of strategies
to minimise impacts
Long term planning
Decades to centuries
Weeks to months
Seasonal forecasting
Climate forecasting
Climate change
Better managed marine resources have improved
improved resilience under climate change
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Seasonal forecasting
Surveying bleached corals
• Seasonal timescale most useful for
marine managers
• Provides an early window for
implementation of management
strategies to minimise impacts
• Dynamical models can incorporate
climate change signals unlike
statistical models
• Better managed marine resources
have improved resilience under
climate change
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
POAMA
• Global coupled ensemble ocean-atmosphere and
data assimilation seasonal prediction system
• Ocean grid 0.5-1.5° north-south by 2° east-west
• Forecasts out to 9 months
Atmospheric Model
(BAM3.0)
• 33 member ensemble
Atmosphere Initial Conditions
Atmosphere
&
• Probabilistic forecasts
Coupler (OASIS)
Land Initial
Conditions
• Run in real-time since 2002
Ocean Model (ACOM2)
Ocean Initial Conditions
• Upgrade to POAMA-2
90o E
E 180o W
90o W
http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
0o
Great Barrier Reef forecasts
http://poama.bom.gov.au
• First operational dynamical seasonal
forecasts for coral bleaching risk in
the world
• Operational seasonal POAMA SST
forecasts for the GBR produced in
real-time and available online
• Provides advance warning of
potential bleaching conditions
• Component of the GBRMPA
Coral Bleaching Response Plan
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Great Barrier Reef products
Operational:
• Spatial GBR SSTA
• GBR SSTA Index
• Operational products
hosted by Ocean Services
Experimental:
• Degree Heating Months
• Probabilistic forecasts
• Google Earth products
http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman 2011
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Summer forecast skill
January
February
Useful skill up to 3 months
ahead during summer
March
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman & Alves (2011), Spillman et al (2012)
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
GBR Bleaching Events
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
1998 bleaching event
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2002 bleaching event
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman et al (2012)
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Degree Heating Month skill
Bleaching
events
El Nino
events
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Spillman et al (2011), Spillman et al (2011)
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Forecasts for the Western Pacific
• Development of a suite of experimental seasonal forecast
products for coral bleaching risk in the Western Pacific
• Project within the Pacific-Australia
Climate Change Science
Adaptation Program (PACCSAP)
• Skill evaluation of model forecasts
of extreme ocean temperatures
• An improved understanding of the
PACCSAP Partner Countries
large scale climate drivers
• Support and in-country training for Partner Countries to assist
decision making and monitoring of anomalous ocean
conditions likely to cause coral bleaching
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Model skill in the Western Pacific
Model Skill: DJF (L=0)
Model-Persistence: DJF (L=0)
Model Skill: JJA (L=0)
Model-Persistence: JJA (L=0)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Forecast delivery
• Online portal to
deliver seasonal
forecasts for the
Western Pacific
under development
• Potential
experimental
forecast products:
 SST & anomalies
 Probabilities
 Thermal stress
 Country indexes
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Benefits & uses of reef forecasts
• Improve community & stakeholder
awareness of how climate influences
local marine systems
• Advance warning of potential
bleaching events allowing for
proactive management & response
• Identification of future threats for long
term planning & policy development
• Gain an understanding of the
processes occurring & large scale
climate drivers
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Latest real-time forecasts..
http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Future for coral reefs
• Global warming likely to
increase coral bleaching
frequency & severity
• POAMA seasonal forecast
products are invaluable
tools for proactive coral reef
management
• Manage for better reef
resilience in the face of a
changing climate
Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Spillman 2011; Spillman et al 2012
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Further information
• POAMA: http://poama.bom.gov.au
• PACCSAP: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/
• Operational forecasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/
• Spillman et al. (2012) IJC, DOI:10.1002/joc.3486
• Griesser & Spillman (2012) CAWCR Res Lett, in press
• Spillman (2011) J Oper Ocean, 4(1):13-22.
• Spillman (2011) CAWCR Res Lett, 6:34-39
• Spillman et al. (2011) MWR, 139:317-331.
• Spillman et al. (2011) BAMS, 92: 1586-1591
• Spillman et al. (2009) Coral Reefs, 28:197-206
• Maynard et al. (2009) J Env Manage, 44:1-11
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Dr Claire Spillman
Research Scientist
Phone: +61 9669 8105
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.cawcr.gov.au
Thank you
www.cawcr.gov.au
Download

12:15 Spillman C - 12th International Coral Reef Symposium