Creative Ways To Identify Talent
The Israel Football Association
March 2012
‘ The function of the expert is not to be
more right than other people, rather it is
to be wrong for more sophisticated
reasons’
Anon
Talent Identification
Assessing ‘talent’
José V. Portolés Montañés
Performance
‘The educator must
above all
understand how to
wait;
to reckon all effects
in the light of the
future,
not of the present’.
Ellen Key, 1911
Potential
Talent Identification
‘Recruitment is a process, scouting is an activity’
Jim Lawler
Manchester United
Head of Recruitment
Talent Identification
‘ The evidence that we could not forecast success accurately was
overwhelming. The story was always the same: our ability to predict
performance at the school was negligible. Our forecasts were better
than blind guesses, but not by much.’
Daniel Kahneman
Thinking Fast and Slow
Nobel Prize 2002 ( Decision Making and Uncertainty)
Talent Identification
‘We had compelling impressions of the behaviour we observed and
no good way to represent our ignorance of the factors that would
eventually determine how well the candidate would perform as an
officer’
‘Confidence is a feeling which reflects the coherence of the
information and the cognitive ease of processing it’
Daniel Kahneman
Thinking Fast and Slow
Muller – Lyer Test
The Same
Talent Identification
‘Confidence is a feeling which reflects the coherence of the
information and the cognitive ease of processing it’
The Illusion of Validity: WYSIATI
Daniel Kahneman
Thinking Fast and Slow
Spot The Talent
Talent Identification
Why Is It So Difficult ?
Coaches
Parents
Technical
corner
Development
Clubs
Teachers
Psychological
corner
Age?
Age?
Games
Programme
Practice to
Games ratio
Learning
Key Phases
THE PLAYER
Coaching
Programme
Alternative
Activities
Age?
Age?
Age?
Physical
corner
When?
What?
Why?
Evaluation?
How?
Social
corner
Talent Identification
UK Sport: Sporting Giants Programme:
Rowing, Volleyball and Handball
Initial Criteria: Men 6’ 3’’, Women 5’ 11’’
Some athletic background.
No sport specific experience
‘ Ultimately trainability not physique is the confirmation.
Trainability tells you much more about their future
success. It’s a bit like buying a sports car, you test drive
it a few times to see whether it can handle the journey
before you invest in it ’
Chelsea Warr
UK Sport; Head of Athlete Development
NAME
DOB
Agbonlahor, Gabriel ########
Barry, Gareth
########
Bent, Darren
########
Cahill, Gary
########
Carrick, Michael
########
Cars on, Scott
########
Cole, As hley
########
Cole, Carlton
########
Cole, Joe
########
Crouch, Peter
########
Daws on, Michael
########
Defoe, Jerm ain
########
Ferdinand, Rio
########
Fos ter, Ben
########
Gerrard, Steven
########
Gibbs , Kieran
########
Hargreaves , Owen
########
Hart, Jos eph
########
Huddles tone, Tom
########
Jagielka, Philip
########
Johns on, Adam
########
Johns on, Glen
########
King, Ledley
########
Lam pard, Frank
########
Lennon, Aaron
########
Les cott, Joleon
########
Milner, Jam es
########
Rooney, Wayne
########
Terry, John
########
Ups on, Matthew
########
Walcott, Theo
########
Wright-Phillips , Shaun########
Young, As hley
########
U15M U16M U17M U18M U19M U20M U21M SENM TotalCaps
1
7
6
10
5
3
3
4
4
1
5
6
6
2
2
2
2
1
4
7
5
4
2
11
9
5
8
2
6
4
1
9
9
19
5
10
4
7
1
4
1
1
3
3
13
1
9
10
1
1
1
1
9
4
1
14
1
0
5
6
15
27
14
3
14
28
4
19
8
6
13
22
5
4
14
3
19
30
6
17
14
12
19
5
2
43
9
12
20
6
8
3
41
6
2
23
6
86
8
56
41
5
46
80
4
86
1
43
5
3
6
3
28
22
84
20
10
14
66
65
21
15
34
9
18 / 33 no caps until U/18 – 8 / 33 no caps until U/20 – 22 / 33 < 10 caps by U/21
19
79
40
8
41
39
92
34
76
51
19
79
90
4
96
27
46
30
57
15
29
76
42
106
49
19
81
83
74
42
54
40
17
WYSIATI
• 6 Key Factors That Influence Judgement:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Performance not potential
Left sided bias through observation (Physical / Technical)
Hidden bias ref D-O-B.
Lack of appropriate reference points
Personal paradigm
Competition (we don’t , they will)
Performance or Potential
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Chronological Age
Maturational State
Experience in the Team
Experience in the Position
Opposition Team
Direct Opponent
Recent History ( Activity / Injury )
• In advance of observation OR opinion will be distorted !
Body type
Dob
t/h
04.01.85
t/h
Age
Maturation
UEFA
Expectation
Position
Number
Expectation
Achieved
Time
minus 0 months
15.10
4
1
1
2
4
1
inj
na
na
inj
26.01.85
minus 0 months
15.10
4
1
0
2
4
9
9
3
3
40 min
a/a
09.01.85
minus 0 months
15.10
3
0
0
2
1
res
res
res
res
a/a
27.02.85
Minus 1 months
15.09
4
1
0
2
3
3
res
res
res
res
a/a
15.02.85
minus 1 months
15.09
3
0
1
2
3
10
10
3
4
79 min
a/a
10.02.85
minus 1 months
15.09
3
1
0
2
3
11
11
3
3
80 min
a/a
26.02.85
minus 1 months
15.09
4
0
1
2
4
3or6
3
3
3
80 min
t/h
12.03.85
minus 2 months
15.07
5
1
0
2
5
5
12
4
3
16 min
t/h
10.03.85
minus 2 months
15.07
5
1
0
2
5
5
5
4
5
80 min
t/h
29.03.85
minus 2 months
15.07
4
0
0
2
2
1
13
2
sub
sub
a/a
22.04.85
minus 3 months
15.06
4
0
0
2
2
res
2
2
1 min
a/a
08.05.85
minus 4 months
15.05
3
1
0
2
3
8
res
res
res
res
t/a
02.05.85
minus 4 months
15.05
4
0
0
2
4
9
16
3
3
40 min
1g
a/h
21.06.85
minus 5 months
15.04
4
0.0
2
5
8
8
4
5
80 min
1g
t/a
26.08.85
minus 7 months
15.03
4
0
0
2
3
4
4
2
3
80 min
t/a
24.09.85
minus 8 months
15.02
4
1
0
2
3
4
14
3
3
6 min
a/h
24.10.85
minus 9 months
15.01
4
0
1
2
3
9
7
4
3
74 min
t/h
20.11.85
minus 10 months
15.00
4
0
0
2
4
1
1
3
3
80 min
t/a
06.01.86
minus 12 months
14.09
4
1
0
2
3
5
2
3
4
80 min
t/h
15.04.86
minus 15 months
14.06
4
0
0
2
3
6
6
3
3
64 min
= tall,
6' 0" plus
u15 year team 85
Today
3 = Average
Experience
Starts/Sub
FIFA
Allow for age,
a = average 5' 6" to 5' 11"
maturation and
s = short
experience
5' 0" to 5' 5"
h = heavy 71kg +
71 kg plus
a = average, 61 to 70 kg
= light,
51 to 60 kg
Name
Subs in Italics
Todays
Shirt
position
number
Before match
Players
game grade
CLUB
notes
2g
capt
1g
MATURITY – AGES AND STAGES?
2 BOYS OF SIMILAR CHRONOLOGICAL AGE
DO
WE
COMPARE?
DO
THEY
COMPARE?
17 years
4 months old
17 years
5 months old
WHAT ARE OUR EXPECTATIONS?
WHAT ARE THEIR EXPECTATIONS?
HOW MANY AGES ARE THERE?
Solutions ?
• Bio-banding:
• Height (cm) x Weight (kg)
1000
Eg 7.2 then + / - 2
Birth preference?
1st September
or 31st August
AGE
WHAT’S THE CONCERN?
BOYS BIRTHS IN PROFESSIONAL CLUBS – IS THIS BY CHOICE?
WHO PICKS THE TEAM & WHAT’S THEIR MOTIVE?
6000
5000
QUESTION:
ARE THE MAJORITY OF THE
BEST PLAYERS BORN
SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER?
57 %
5047
4000
3000
School and
club start.
2000
So What?
30 %
Why are the
youngest
left out?
2659
13 %
1000
0
Sep-Dec
Jan-Apr
1151
May-Aug
8857 club 9 to 16 year old players
6,078 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05
jan
9% feb
7%
dec
10%
nov
12%
mar
7%
apr
5%
may
5%
jun
jul 4%
aug 4%
3%
oct
15%
sep-dec = 56%
jan-apr = 28%
may-aug = 16%
sep
19%
sep-dec = 58%
jan-apr = 28%
may-aug = 14%
m ar
8%
oct
10%
apr
7%
sep
11%
sep-dec = 39%
jan-apr = 31%
may-aug = 30%
jul
7%
m ay
8%
jun
7%
jan
9%
nov
14%
dec
10%
WHEN
SCOUTS
DECIDE
1,255 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05
jan feb
8% 8%
dec
nov 9%
9%
15%
feb
6%
10,468 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05
aug
8%
2,025 births of 9 to 16 year olds for season 2004/05
aug
jun jul
sep
may 4% 3% 4%
19%
3%
apr
6%
mar
7%
oct
Nov
9%
Dec
9%
Jan
8%
Mar
9%
Oct
9%
Apr
8%
Sep
9%
sep-dec = 36%
jan-apr = 33%
may-aug = 31%
Feb
8%
Aug
7%
Jul
7%
Jun
8%
May
9%
WHEN
MUMS AND
DADS
DECIDE
Solutions ? Split start dates: Schools and Club
• Split start dates: Schools and Club football.
Schools 1st October to 30th September
Clubs 1st January to 31st Dec
Schools 1st September to 31st August
Clubs 1st January to 31st December
Solutions ?
Split start dates: On date of birth
On 14th July
Youngest in age
group eg U/12
On 14th July
Youngest in age
group eg U/13
Experience as oldest
in the age group
(Advantaged ?)
Experience as
youngest in age
group
(Disadvantaged ?)
January
6 months in and old
leave, new join now
middle of group
Performance Milestones
TOURE
What did they do at 10 ?
Were they the same ?
What do they do now ?
Are they the same ?
FORLAN
Performance Milestones: 3 Stages
• Generic skills / 4 corners; What ?
(Ajax : T.I.P.S)
• Role specific skills; What ?
(When do they impact ?)
• Club philosophy; Why ?
(What do you want YOUR players to look like ?)
VALENCIA C.F.
Players are chosen taking into account:
Their relationship with the ball
Decision making capacity
Their temperament in competition
Their improvement potential.
They must be good at all these aspects and excel at some of them.
They believe that most of the players who fit these categories are
already playing as strikers and they convert them into defenders
later, usually by the time they are 15-16.
Performance Milestones
Changing The Paradigm
‘ When Roger Federer plays tennis, he does not make better
inferences from a universally accessible pool of sensory information;
rather he sees and hears the world in an entirely different way. His
deep knowledge of tennis transforms the very fabric of his
perceptions.’
Matthew Syed
Bounce (The myth of talent and the power of practice)
Changing The Paradigm
Do we have to see players / talent in an entirely different
way ?
Best learners are ?
These are right side issues, the more we know, the better
guess we can make.
Changing the Paradigm
Fixed Mindset eg; When faced with effort, set-backs,
failure or more able peers they tend to question their
ability.
Growth Mindset eg; Recognise that effort, difficulties,
failure and mistakes are an inevitable and often
essential part of the learning process.
Carol Dweck, Mindset: The New Psychology of Success,
Ballantine, New York, 2008.
Changing the Paradigm
‘You know why this place is successful, because none of
the kids leave here without their mindset transformed.
They may arrive thinking they can cruise their way to
success, but they quickly learn that nobody has got
anywhere in life without working hard, by showing
tremendous discipline and by taking responsibility for
their actions. That is what ultimately separates the best
from the rest’
Nick Bolletieri
Quoted in Bounce (The myth of talent and the power of practice)
Matthew Syed (2010)
Solutions ? ‘SKILLS EXTRA’
‘Is the approach to learning the key element that can
define those that have reached the very top ? Their
motivation to practice, to try new things and to keep
going when things don’t work’
‘We take them all including the younger and smaller
ones, they might not be the best ones now, but could
have real potential over the longer term, what I call ‘slow
burners’
Martin Preston
Manager
FA / Tesco Skills Coach Programme
Solutions
‘SKILLS EXTRA’
106 Specialists working with ‘non elite players’ between ages of
5 and 11.
2010
112 players joined Centres of Excellence or Academies
42 players joined from Centres of Excellence or Academies .
2011
203 players joined Centres of Excellence or Academies
105 Players joined from Centres of Excellence or Academies.
Solutions ? Initial Recruitment
England: Formal registration 9 years old.
Informal registration 5 years old.
9- 13 years old players register for 1 year
14 year old players register for 2 years
Limited activity outside of club.
Compensation payment system.
Formation Training
•
CFA – 8 sessions + 1 match
14 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach - Laurent Huard FT)
•
Under 18’s – 8 sessions + 1 match
13 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach - Lebris Fabris FT)
•
Under 16’s – 8 sessions + 1 match (45 mins ew)
14 players – 10.00 to 12.00 and 4.00 to 6.00pm ( Coach – Yannick Menu FT)
•
Under 15’s – 6 sessions + 1 match (40mins ew)
12players – 10.00 to 12.oo Mon to Fri + Wed 4.00 to 6.00pm (Coach Yannick Menu + Franck Haise)
•
Under14’s – 5 Sessions + 1 match (40 mins ew)
4.30 to 7.00pm (Coach Franck Haise FT)
•
Under 13’s – 3 to 5 sessions + 1 match (35 mins ew)
(Coach – Vincent Garnier FT)
GK’s – 7 Sessions per week (Coach – Francois Seguin FT)
Amateur Section
2x Adult Teams
2x U18 Teams
2x U15 Teams
3xU13 Teams – 11v11
3x U11 Teams – 9v9
3x U9 Teams – 7v7
Parents pay 50 Euros for Registration
21Players
Debutants = U6 and U7’s
Increased Retention
The under 18/19s have one team and have 25 players
The under 16s/17s have 2 teams and 50 players.
The under 15s/14s retain 65 players and have 3 teams (this higher
figure to allow for maturation/puberty issues).
There is a call to service,
that will take great courage
to leave what we have and move out,
not without fear but without succumbing to
that fear .
It is a call to re-define what is possible,
to see a vision of a new world
and be willing to undertake step by step
what is necessary in
concrete terms to achieve that vision.
H. Fromm