SINGLE EUROPEAN SKY versus
NEXTGEN (US) FROM A REGULATORY
PERSPECTIVE
Ian Middleton, Deputy Director
EUROCONTROL - Directorate Single Sky
Amsterdam, 27 April 2012
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
Agenda
• The challenges driving R&D
• Airports and the Network
• Meeting the challenges - R&D within a
Regulatory Framework
– NEXTGEN versus SESAR
• Conclusion
EUROCONTROL
39 Member States
UAC Maastricht
Central Flow Management Unit
EUROCONTROL & EU
EUROCONTROL but not EU
Central Route Charges Office
Institute of Air Navigation Services
Experimental Centre
Headquarters – SES Support
Network Manager
General Presentation
3
Challenges Driving R&D
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
25
IFR traffic in Europe
1960-2010 historical figures
2011-2030 forecast
20
Long-Term
Trend
15
Actual
Traffic
10
Annual
Growth
Forecast
Trafic
5
Long-Term
Average Growth
0
5%
0%
-5%
-5
-10%
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Annual Growth
Flights in Europe (Million)
Traffic in Europe
USA Traffic Growth
US air traffic will increase by the equivalent of two major hub
airports each year through 2020.
2010
2009
2008
2007
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2006
Europe
US
2005
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
1999
Index (1999=100)
•
Source: EUROCONTROL PRC/ FAA
How Robust is the Growth?
Global Recession
2008
Traffic
Kosovo
Crisis
1999
9/11
2001
SARS
2002
Gulf War
1991
Oil Price
Rises
2005+
Oil Crisis
1980
IT Boom
1997-98
Economic
Boom
1987-88
1974
1979
1984
IRAQ War
2003
Time
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
2012
Capacity
.
2000
2033
.
8.0 Million Flights
16.0 Million Flights
Traffic tripled over last 25 years
Traffic will double over next 20 years
1.5 million flights will go
un-accommodated
if extra capacity is
not provided
Delays
27.7 million minutes of delays (2010) costing €2.0 Bn.
20% of flights will be delayed by 2020 if system is not modernised
Primary Delay Distribution for 2011
Airlines
Weather
Airports
Security
Misc
En-Route
Environment
•
Top of political
agenda
•
Aviation must
continue to make
significant effort to
reduce its impact on
environment
Airports and the
Network
Airports and the Network
•
Runway and Airport capacity limitations can
block growth
•
Need to make more efficient use of existing
capacity
– Efficient surface management
– Connectivity with ATM Network
•
•
Airports are a key component of ATM Network
Must integrate airports into the Network
Airport constraints
Flights in Europe - 2030
• In most-likely scenario (C), 2 million flights not accommodated
Airports are a small but persistent
source of primary delay
Breakdown average delay per flight 2007-2011
16
Average departure delay per flight in minutes
14
14,7
13,4
12,6
12
10,7
10,0
10
8
6
4
2
0
2007
Airport Primary
2008
Other Primary
2009
2010
En-Route Primary
2011
Reactionary
Source: www.eurocontrol.int/coda
Meeting the Challenges
R&D within a Framework
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
SESAR
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
Single European Sky (SES) Framework
•
•
To address defragmentation
Legislation adopted by EU Council and Parliament
– 20 April 2004, amended November 2009.
•
4 SES Regulations
Interoperability
Airspace
Service Provision
Framework
Performance-driven
Single European Sky ATM Research
(SESAR)
A new ATM System is required
Needs:
SESAR
•
•
Turn off fragmented approach
•
Technical/operational change,
supported by Single European Sky
legislation
•
Synchronise plans and actions
•
•
Public Private Partnership
•
Address European needs and Global
interoperability
Accelerate evolution in response
to challenges
– from research to operations
Direct involvement of aviation
industry in all phases
SESAR Joint Undertaking
•
Public-private partnership to manage the SESAR Development Phase
– Execute the European ATM Master Plan
– One single ATM R&D programme in Europe
•
Innovation from private sector
•
Public financial stability & enforcement power
•
•
2 founding members:
•
SJU Budget: ~2.1 B€, till 31 Dec 2016
15 industry members:
19
NEXTGEN
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
NEXTGEN ARRANGEMENTS
•
•
Strong regulatory basis – FAA is Regulator and manages
NextGen programme
Funding
– Lacks a permanent spending bill
– FAA Reauthorisation and Reform Act of 2011 passed in the U.S.
House of Representatives on April 1, 2011 included a critical
amendment authorising a public-private partnership (PPP)
•
FAA governance supported by the NextGen Advisory Committee
(NAC)
– FAA can solicit a consensus-based set of recommendations
– Forum to obtain a commitment of resources and/or synchronised
planning between government and industry
– Identify opportunities for industry participation in NextGen
implementation.
SESAR/NEXTGEN COOPERATION
•
European and US authorities agreement on
the cooperation of SESAR and NextGen.
– Agreement is technical annex to European Commission
and US Federal Aviation Administration memorandum of
co-operation for civil aviation research and
development.
– Contributes to essential standardisation of ATM
systems, to be pursued through the International Civil
Aviation Organisation.
– Interoperability essential for airspace users operating in
US and EU airspaces.
Regulatory Impact of SESAR and
NextGen on Airports
•
•
•
Through SESAR and Next Gen, EC and FAA will
define areas in which Airports need to focus their
investments
The SESAR and NextGen Standardisation and
Regulatory Roadmaps will provide the basis for a
more global approach
EC and FAA will work with ICAO in attempt to
establish a global Regulatory Roadmap – On ANC12
Agenda
– Airports will be consulted through normal EASA/EC
Rulemaking processes
•
Total estimated cost for SESAR deployment in Europe
is 30 Billion Euro
– Covers aircraft, ATM Airport and military equipage costs
SESAR versus NEXTGEN (1)
•
•
Both benefit from established regulatory frameworks
•
•
Programmes share similar aims
Europe more fragmented but USA and FAA face same
issues of buy-in and governance complications
SESAR
– stable funding
– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core
•
NEXTGEN
– unstable funding to date
– PPP?
SESAR versus NEXTGEN (2)
•
SESAR
– stable funding
– time limited – what happens post-2016?
– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core
•
NEXTGEN
– unstable funding to date
– greater longevity
Conclusions
•
•
•
Capacity requires ATM network-wide actions
Airports can impede traffic growth
SESAR and NEXTGEN will facilitate the
definition of global and regional regulatory
requirements for airports
– regulatory roadmaps
•
•
Airports to be integrated in the overall network
Europe and FAA both pro-active in achieving a
common set of equipment and procedures