Beyond greenhouse gases – The importance
of direct climate impacts associated with
bioenergy expansion
Matei Georgescu, Assistant Professor,
School of School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning
Senior Sustainability Scientist, Global Institute of Sustainability,
Arizona State University
Outline
1. US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy crops
2. Future work: System sustainability and resilience
3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil
Direct Impacts (on hydro-climate) of substituting
annual with perennial bioenergy crops
WRF Domain
Corn Belt
Perennial bioenergy
crops
Perennial and Annual bioenergy crops:
Observed Phenological differences
Miscanthus
GLAI (m2 m-2)
8
Species: p<0.0001
DOY: p<0.0001
Species*DOY: p<0.0001
B
6
4
2
0
Jan 07
May 07
Sep 07
Jan 08
maize
May 08
Sep 08
Jan 09
Date
X-intercepts represent the dates of crop
emergence and completion of senescence for
each species in each year [F. G. Dohlman and S.
P. Long Plant Phys. 150, 2104 (2009)].
Perennial - Annual biophysical
differences
APR: Vegetation
Fraction Difference
APR: LAI
Difference
APR: Albedo
Difference
Near-surface temp. impacts of conversion to
Perennial bioenergy crops
Perennials minus
Annuals
PerennialsNoAlb
minus Annuals
Perennials-2m
minus Annuals
Local cooling of 1-2ºC (Georgescu
et al. 2011, PNAS).
Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to
Perennial bioenergy crops
Perennials-2m
minus Annuals
Perennials-2m
minus Annuals
• Regionally averaged across land undergoing conversion,
greatest temp. differences occur during shoulder seasons
(when phenological contrasts are largest)
• Temp differences are owing to higher rates of ET for the
deeper-rooted perennials
(Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS)
Hydro-climatic impacts of conversion to
Perennial bioenergy crops
WRF simulated total monthly precipitation difference [mm]
(Perennials-2m minus Annuals) for (left) July and (right) October.
(Georgescu et al. 2011, PNAS)
Outline
1. Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy
crops
2. Future work: System sustainability and Resilience
3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil
PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC)
Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops
US: 123 million ha
Global: 1107 million ha
Source: Cai et al. 2011, Environ. Sci. Technol.
PI (Georgescu): Water Sustainability and Climate (WSC)
Title: Sustainable Large-Scale Deployment of Perennial Biomass Energy Crops
•Trans-disciplinary approach integrating:
economics/water/climate/energy/policy
Outline
1. Phenological Impacts: US corn/soy to second generation bioenergy
crops
2. Future work: System sustainability and Resilience
3. Impacts owing to sugar cane expansion in Brazil
Sugar Cane parameterization
de Cerqueira Leite
et al., 2009
Harvest [August]
(Georgescu et al. In Prep)
Sugar Cane seasonal impacts on 2m temps
SPRING
SUMMER
FALL
WINTER
(Georgescu et al. In Prep)
Multi-member ensemble approach
(Georgescu et al. In Prep)
Take home message
•
Maize to
switchgrass/miscanthus
•
•
e.g. sorghum
•
e.g. jatropha
Sugarcane
consequences of biofuel expansion require an integrated
trans-disciplinary assessment - social/economic
valuation integrated with direct hydro-climatic
consequences and biogeochemical impacts.
Thank You!