Performance of Global
Forecast System
NCMRWF/IMD
(INDIA)
Presentation for Annual performance evaluation of NCEP production suite at NCEP, Maryland,
USA during 6-8 December 2011
Care-takers
• NCMRWF
• Data/monitoring: Munmun Das Gupta,
Indira Rani
• Analysis
: V S Prasad
• Model/post
: Saji Mohandas
• Verification
: Gopal Iyengar
• GEFS
: E N Rajagopal
• IMD
• Data/monitoring: S D Kotal
• Analysis/Model/Verfication : V R Durai
• Co-ordinator
: S.K.Roy Bhowmik
Numerical Weather Prediction System of NCMRWF
Data
Global Observations Reception
SURFACE
from land
stations
GTS
RTH, IMD
SHIP
Global Data
Assimilation
Observation
quality
checks &
monitoring
Upper Air
RSRW/
PIBAL
Aircraft
Satellite
NKN
ISRO
(MT)
NCMRWF
OBSERVATION
PROCESSING
45mbps
High Resolution
Satellite Obsn
NKN
Internet (FTP)
NESDIS
proposed
dedicated
link
EUMETSAT
Users
Global Model
T574L64
10day FCST
IMD
INCOIS
BUOY
24x7
Forecast
Models
Global
Analysis
(GSI)
Initial state
Global
Forecast
Model
( 9hr Fcst –
first guess )
4 times a day for
00,06,12,18 UTC
Visualisation
NKN
Meso-scale
Data
Assimilation
& Model
Statistical
Interpolation
Model
(location
specific FCST)
once in a day
for 00 UTC
Other
sectors
GFS Models (NCMRWF) – Current status
Model
Version
Horizontal Forecast
Resolution Length
Performance
GFS
T382L64
GFS version
9.0.1
~35km
168 Hrs (3hr
data cutoff)
4 min. for 24 hr
forecast (IBMP6 16 nodes)
GFS
T574L64
GFS version
9.0.1
~23km
240 Hrs (5hr
data cutoff)
9 min. for 24 hr
forecast (IBMP6 16 nodes)
GEFS
T190L28
Latest
version
20 members
~70km
240 Hrs (Not
operational)
6 min. For 24
hr forecast
(IBM-P6 8
nodes)
High Performance Computing Systems
HPC
Connectivit
y
No of Processors
available
Per
node
memory
Processor speed
IBM
Infini Band
Power 6
38x32 (NCMRWF)
24x32 (IMD)
4x32 GB
4.7 Gflops
Recent developments in NCMRWF GFS system
Implementation of the T382L64 GFS from May 2010
(latest versions of upgraded model and GSI)
Assimilation of additional data in T382L64 GFS
The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) winds
Rainfall rates (TRMM, SSMI)
NOAA19 radiances
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances
GPSRO (COSMIC)
Implementation of the T574L64 GFS from mid-November,
2010 (July 2010 Version)
Implementation of latest NCEP version of T574L64 (from
June, 2011)
Time line - NCMRWF GFS
The T382L64 GFS was
implemented in May 2010.
The T574L64 GFS was first
implemented in November 2010.
T382L64 performance was
evaluated during Monsoon 2010
and was found to marginally
better than the T254L64 GFS.
T254L64 stopped.
T574L64 performance was
evaluated during NovemberDecember 2010 and was found to
better than the T382L64 GFS.
T382L64 model was run parallel
to T574L64 for Monsoon 2011
The latest version of the NCEP
T574L64 GFS was implemented
in May 2011 and found to be
better than T382L64 system
T382L64 run stopped from
November 2011
End-to-end T574L64 GFS system
was transferred to IMD on 15
November, 2011
Physical Parameterization schemes in T382L64 and T574L64
Physics
T382L64
T574L64
Surface Fluxes
Monin-Obukhov similarity
Monin-Obukhov similarity
Turbulent Diffusion
Non-local Closure scheme (Hong and Pan (1996)
Non-local Closure scheme (Lock et al., 2000)
SW Radiation
Based on Hou et al. 2002 –no aeroslos – invoked hourly
Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM2) (Mlawer
et al. 1997; Mlawer and Clough, 1998)- aerosols
included– invoked hourly
LW Radiation
Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) (Mlawer et al.
1997). –no aerosols- invoked 3 hourly
Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM1) (Mlawer
and Clough 1997;1998). –aerosols includedinvoked hourly
Deep Convection
SAS convection (Pan and Wu (1994)
SAS convection (Han and Pan, 2006)
Shallow Convection
Shallow convection Following Tiedtke (1983)
Mass flux scheme (Han and Pan, 2010)
Large Scale
Condensation
Large Scale Precipitation (Zhao and Carr ,1997;
Sundqvist et al., 1989)
Large Scale Precipitation (Zhao and Carr ,1997;
Sundqvist et al., 1989)
Cloud Generation
Based on Xu and Randall (1996)
Based on Xu and Randall (1996)
Rainfall Evaporation
Kessler (1969)
Kessler (1969)
Land Surface Processes
NOAH LSM with 4 soil levels for temperature & moisture
(Ek et al., 2003)
NOAH LSM with 4 soil levels for temperature &
moisture (Ek et al., 2003)
Air-Sea Interaction
Roughness length by Charnock (1955)Observed
SST,Thermal roughness over the ocean is based on
Zeng et al., (1998).3-layer Thermodynamic Sea-ice
model (Winton, 2000)
Roughness length by Charnock (1955), Observed
SST, Thermal roughness over the ocean is based
on Zeng et al., (1998). 3-layer Thermodynamic
Sea-ice model (Winton, 2000)
Gravity Wave Drag &
mountain blocking
Based on Alpert et al. (1988)
Lott and Miller (1997), Kim and Arakawa (1995),
Alpert et al., (1996)
Vertical Advection
Explicit
Flux-Limited Positive-Definite Scheme (Yang et
al., 2009)
Differences of the T574L64 GSI Data Assimilation system compared to T382L64
New observations assimilated
Improvements in Data
Assimilation system
Inclusion of METOP IASI (Infrared Atmospheric
Sounding Interferometer) data
Use of variational qc
Reduction of number of AIRS (Atmospheric
Infrared Sounder) water vapor channels used
Addition of background error covariance input
file
Assimilating tropical storm pseudo sea-level
pressure observations,
Flow dependent reweighting of background error
variances
NOAA-19 HIRS/4 (High Resolution Infrared
Radiation Sounder) and AMSU-a (Advanced
Microwave Sounding Unit) brightness
temperature,
Use of new version and coefficients for
community radiative transfer model (CRTM -2.02 )
NOAA-18 SBUV/2, (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet
Spectral Radiometer) Ozone , EUMETSAT-9
atmospheric motion vectors.
Improved Tropical Cyclone Relocation
Using uniform thinning mesh for brightness
temperature data.
Change in land/snow/ice skin temperature
variance
Improving assimilation of GPS radial occultation
data. RE-tuned observation errors.
ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) winds
included
Korean AMDAR data and more number of Aircraft
Reports
European Wind profiler data
Types of observations Assimilated in GFS
Observation category
Name of Observation.
Surface
Land surface, Mobile, Ship, Buoy (SYNOPs)
Upper air
TEMP (land and marine), PILOT (land and
marine), Dropsonde, Wind profiler
Aircraft
AIREP, AMDAR, TAMDAR, ACARS
Atmospheric Motion Vectors from AMV from Meteosat-7, Meteosat-9, GOES-11,
Geo-Stationary Satellites
GOES-13, MTSAT-1R, MODIS (TERRA and
AQUA),
Scatterometer winds
ASCAT winds from METOP-A satellite,
NESDIS / POES ATOVS Sounding
radiance data
1bamua, 1bamub, 1bmhs,1bhirs3, 1bhirs4
Satellite derived Ozone data
NESDIS/POES, METOP-2 and AURA orbital
ozone data
Precipitation Rates
NASA/TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission) and SSM/I precip. rates
Bending angles from GPSRO
Atmospheric profiles from radio occultation
data using GPS satellites
NASA/AQUA AIRS & METOP/ IASI
brightness temperature data
IASI,AIRS,AMSR-E brightness temperatures
Count of different types of observations over Indian Region
(received at NCMRWF at 00 UTC from 1 to 25 of months June, July,
August, and September 2011)
Observation
Type
June
July
August
September
SYNOP
143
139
142
136
RS/RW
33
33
37
39
PILOT
31
25
22
23
AWS
544
719
552
690
ARG
195
424
308
357
BUOY
10
10
11
10
Data Reception: NCMRWF vs ECMWF (S-W Monsoon, 2011)
(Average number of observations received in 24 hours )
RED COLOUR INDICATES LESS DATA ; BLUE COLOUR INDICATES COMPARABLE DATA
June
July
August
NCMRWF
ECMWF
NCMRWF
ECMWF
NCMRWF
ECMWF
SYNOP/SHIP
Pressure
BUOY (Drifter)
46,118
78,390
56,734
78,481
57,607
78,574
10,715
13,953
13,882
13,879
13,752
13,531
TEMP 500 hPa
Geopotential
TEMP/PILOT
300 hPa Wind
AIRCRAFT
winds (300-150
hPa)
AMV winds
(400-150 hPa)
AMV winds
(1000-700 hPa)
1,088
1,286
1,271
1,286
1,320
1,336
1,098
1,434
1,300
1,429
1,349
1,490
58,412
1,04,987
72,842
1,02,562 72,685
1,03,059
2,00,283
10,06,280 2,55,690
9,78,269 2,43,282
9,45,691
1,28,786
8,53,193
8,91,204 1,52,905
8,21,724
1,54,724
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and
RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph
gives the observation data counts over the region used for the
comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Vector Wind Fits (Bias and
RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph
gives the observation data counts over the region used for the
comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE)
to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the
observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Moisture Fits (Bias and RMSE)
to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph gives the
observation data counts over the region used for the comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and
RMSE) to RAOBS over Global for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph
gives the observation data counts over the region used for the
comparison.
Vertical Profile of T574L64 (Dotted Line) and T382L64 (Bold Line)
Analyses (Black) and First Guess (Red) Temperature Fits (Bias and
RMSE) to RAOBS over Tropics for JJAS, 2011. The Right Panel graph
gives the observation data counts over the region used for the
comparison.
Global Circulation Features
Day 05 Forecast Errors 850 hPa Zonal Wind JJA 2011
NCMRWF
NCEP
Regional Circulation Features
ANA
T382
T574
D03 ERR
ANA
T382
T574
D05 ERR
ANA
T382
T574
D03 ERR
ANA
T382
T574
D05 ERR
ANA
T382
T574
D03 ERR
ANA
T382
T574
D05 ERR
T382
T574
T382
T574
T382
T574
T382
T574
VERIFICATION AGAINST ITS OWN ANALYSIS
Models: T574, T382 and UKMO
Parameters : Zonal & Meridional Wind, Geo-potential
Height, Temperature, Relative Humidity
forecast and analysis fields used are valid for 00UTC
and the forecasts are based on initial condition valid for
00UTC.
computed the scores using the data at 1 degree
resolution from all the models.
T574
T382
UKMO
T574
T382
UKMO
RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Zonal Wind
850 hPa
200 hPa
Model Day1 Day3 Day5 Day1 Day3 Day5
T382
2.9
3.0
4.3
4.6
5.9
6.7
T574
2.5
3.5
4.0
4.3
5.4
6.0
UKMO 2.1
3.8
3.5
3.0
4.3
5.1
RMSE against own analysis 850 hPa Meridonal Wind
850 hPa
200 hPa
Model Day1 Day3 Day5 Day1 Day3 Day5
T382
2.6
3.3
3.7
4.1
5.0
5.5
T574
2.2
3.1
3.6
3.9
4.8
5.3
UKMO 1.9
2.7
3.2
2.7
3.7
4.3
Factors and methods used
In standardized verificatlon of NWP products
Verification agalnst analysis
Area Northem hemisphere extratropics (90°N - 20°N )(all inclusive)
Tropics (20°N - 20°S)(all inclusive)
Southem hemisphere extratropics (20°S - 90°S)(all inclusive)
Grid Verifying analysis is the centre's on a latitude-longitude grid
2.5° x 2.5°; origin (0°,0°)
Variables MSL pressure, geopotential height, temperature, winds
Levels Extratropics: MSL, 500 hPa, 250 hPa
Tropics: 850 hPa, 250 hPa
Time 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h,120h,144h,168h,192h, 216h, 240h ...
Scores Mean error, root-mean-square error (rmse), anomaly correlation,
S1 skill score, root-mean-square vector wind error (rmseV)
Verification against observations
The seven networks used in verification against
radiosondes consist of radiosondes stations Iying
within the following geographical area:
North America
25°N - 60°N 50°W - 145°W
Europe/North Africa 25°N - 70°N 10°W - 28°E
Asia
25°N - 65°N 60°E - 145°E
Australia/New Zealand 10°S - 55°S 90°E - 180°E
Australia/New Zealand 10°S - 55°S 90°E - 180°E
Tropics
20°S - 20°N all longitudes
N. Hemisphere Extratropics 20°N - 90°N all longitudes
S.Hemisphere Extratropics 20°S -90°S all longitudes
Anomaly correlation of 10 day forecasts of 500 hPa Geopotential Height over the
Northern Hemisphere from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS
The anomaly correlation
values are comparatively
higher in the T574 GFS
with a gain of 1 day
in the skill of the forecasts.
In the lower panel the line plot
depicts the difference of the
forecasts of Geopotential
Height of the T574 GFS from
the T382 GFS.
The difference values outside
the histograms are statistically
significant at 95% level of
confidence.
RMSE of 10 day forecasts of 850 hPa Zonal Wind over the Regional Specialized
Meteorological Centre (RSMC) region from the T382 (black line) and T574 (red line) GFS
The RMSE values are
comparatively lower in the T574
GFS with a gain of 1 day
in the skill of the forecasts.
In the lower panel the line plot
depicts the difference of the
forecasts of Zonal Wind of the
T574 GFS from the T382 GFS.
The difference values outside
the histograms are statistically
significant at 95% level of
confidence.
Verification of Day 01-05 Forecast against Observations over Tropics
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) 850 hPa winds in m/s
JUNE 2011
Model
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
ECMWF
3.6
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.5
UKMO
3.7
4.0
4.4
4.8
5.0
NCEP
3.8
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.0
NCMRWF 3.8
T574
4.1
4.5
4.7
4.9
Verification of Day 03 Forecasts against Radiosondes over India (2005-2011)
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 850 hPa winds in m/s
T254
T382 T574
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
May-08
Jan-08
Sep-07
May-07
Jan-07
Sep-06
May-06
Jan-06
Sep-05
May-05
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-05
RMSEV
T80
Monsoon Depressions
Track Errors
700
Error (in Km)
600
500
AVE FTE T574
FTE 11to 12june11
FTE 16 to 22june11
FTE 22 to 23july11
FTE 22 to 23sep11
400
300
200
100
0
Day-1
Day-2
Day-3
Days
Day-4
Day-5
VECTOR ERROR (Km) IN THE PREDICTED TRACK OF
THE FOUR SYSTEMS DURING JJAS 2011
Error (in Km)
500
400
300
T574
200
T382
100
0
Day-1
Day-2
Day-3
Days
Day-4
Day-5
Error in (Km)
VECTOR ERROR (Km) IN THE PRECDICTED TRACK OF THE FOUR
SYSTEMS DURING JJAS 2011
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Day-1
UKMO
T574
T382
Day-2
Day-3
Days
Day-4
Day-5
RAINFALL FORECAST VERIFICATION DURING
MONSOON 2011:T382,T574 & UKMO
• A detailed and quantitative rainfall forecast
verification has been made using the
IMD's 0.5° daily rainfall data for the entire
period of JJAS 2011.
UKMO
T382
T574
Model
Day-1
Day-3
Day-5
T574
0.90
0.82
0.73
T382
0.81
0.79
0.72
UKMO 0.91
0.86
0.80
Seasonal (a), Monthly (b) and weekly (c) rainfall (mm) predicted by
T574L64 model for Monsoon-2011 against observed and long period
average (climatology). Weekly rainfall is accumulated 7-day forecast
from single initial conditions of every week.
Forecasts of rain meeting or exceeding specified thresholds
For binary (yes/no) events, an event ("yes") is defined by rainfall greater than or
equal to the specified threshold; otherwise it is a non-event ("no").
The joint distribution of observed and forecasts events and non-events is shown
by the categorical contingency table.
OBSERVED
YES
YES
NO
hits
false alarms
misses
correct rejections
OBSERVED YES
OBSERVED NO
FORECAST YES
FORECAST
NO
FORECAST NO
Day-1 Rainfall Forecast
T382
T574
UKMO
0.6
ETS
0.4
0.2
0
0.01
1
2
3
4
5
4
5
Rainfall Thres hold(cm /day)
Day-3 Rainfall Forecast
0.6
ETS
0.4
0.2
0
0.01
1
2
3
Rainfall
Thres
hold(cm /day)
Day-5
Rainfall
Forecast
ETS
0.6
T382
T574
UKMO
0.4
0.2
0
0.01
1
2
3
4
Rainfall Thres hold (cm/day)
ETS for the predicted rainfall during JJAS 2011
5
IMD GFS Verification - Areas
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
ALL-INDIA
(Lon: 68 E – 98E, Lat: 9N – 37N)
Central India
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)
East India
(Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N)
North East India
(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
North West India
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
South Peninsula India
(Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
West Coast of India
(Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N)
ALL India : Weekly Cumulative Rainfall
OBS
ALL INDIA: Weekly Cumulative Rainfall
120
T382(CC=0.79)
(Lon: 68 E – 98E, Lat: 9N – 37N)
T574(CC=0.83)
Rainfall in mm
90
60
30
29
17
23
20
11
11
SE
P
12
18
G 31
20
11
24
30
5
6
AU
19
25
7
13
19
JU
LY 25
20
11
1
1
JU
NE
20
11
7
13
0
OBS
NORTH WEST- INDIA:7 day cum . rain
150
T382(CC=0.68)
(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
T574(CC=0.80)
Rainfall in mm
120
90
60
30
29
23
17
11
20
11
30
EP
24
18
12
20
11
31
G
25
19
13
7
5
S
A
U
6
JU
1
1
JU
N
LY
20
11
25
19
13
7
E
20
11
0
OBS
T382(CC=0.77)
Central- INDIA:Cum ulative Rainfall
180
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)
150
Rainfall in mm
T574(CC=0.76)
120
90
60
30
S
5
29
23
17
11
20
11
30
EP
24
18
12
20
11
G
25
19
13
7
31
A
U
6
LY
1
JU
N
JU
1
20
11
25
19
13
7
E
20
11
0
OBS
EAST- INDIA:7 DAY CUM RAINFALL
250
T382 (CC=0.47)
(Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N)
T574 (CC=0.75)
Rainfall in mm
200
150
100
50
29
23
17
11
20
11
30
EP
24
18
12
20
11
31
S
U
6
5
A
JU
1
1
JU
N
LY
G
25
19
13
7
20
11
25
19
13
7
E
20
11
0
OBS
NORTH EAST- INDIA:7 day cum . rain
250
T382 (CC=0.64)
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
Rainfall in mm
200
T574(CC=0.69)
150
100
50
0
1
N
JU
E
11
20
7
13
19
25
1
L
JU
Y
11
20
7
13
19
25
31
6
AU
G
11
20
12
18
24
30
5
P
SE
11
20
11
17
23
29
WEST COAST OF INDIA:7 day Cum Rain
350
OBS
(Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N)
300
T382(CC=0.69)
Rainfall in mm
250
T574(CC=0.74)
200
150
100
50
29
23
17
11
20
11
30
EP
24
18
12
20
11
31
S
U
6
5
A
JU
1
1
JU
N
LY
G
25
19
13
7
20
11
25
19
13
7
E
20
11
0
OBS
SP- INDIA: 7day Cum Rain
100
T382(CC=0.56)
(Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
T574(CC=0.71)
Rainfall in mm
80
60
40
20
29
23
17
11
11
20
24
18
12
30
E
P
S
5
6
A
U
L
Y
G
20
11
31
25
19
13
7
01
1
2
19
13
7
25
JU
1
1
JU
N
E
20
11
0
CC :7 Day Cumulative Rainfall of GFS T382 &T574 vs. Observation
T382
CC: 7 DAY CUM RAIN T382 &T574
T574
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
CENTRAL
INDIA
NW INDIA
NE INDIA
EAST INDIA
SP INDIA
WEST
COAST
INDIA
ALLINDIA
1
1
IMDT382
NE-INDIA
East india
CENTRAL INDIA
IMDT382
(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
0.9
0.8
IMDT574
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
CC
CC
CC
0.6
0.2
0.3
0
DAY-1
0
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
0
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
DAY-1
SP INDIA
WEST COAST OF INDIA
DAY-4
DAY-5
1
IMDT574
NW INDIA
(Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 25N -30N)
0.8
0.8
CC
CC
0.6
IMDT574
0.6
DAY-3
IMDT382
(Lon: 76E - 81E, Lat: 12N- 17N)
IMDT382
DAY-2
IMDT382
IMDT574
0.8
(Lon: 70E - 75E, Lat: 13N - 18N)
CC
IMDT574
IMDT574
0.8
1
IMDT382
((Lon: 75E – 80E, Lat: 19 – 24N)
(Lon: 83E -88E, Lat: 20N -25N)
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.4
0
0.2
0.2
DAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
DAY-1 DAY-2 DAY-3 DAY-4 DAY-5
DAY-1
DAY-2
DAY-3
DAY-4
DAY-5
GFS T574 : 168 -72 hr F/c shows a FALSE ALARM of Cyclonic Storm over Arabian sea on 6
June 2011
Analysis of 6 June 2011
GFS T574: Daily Error in Maximum and Minimum Temperature over North-East India
(Lon: 90E – 95E, Lat: 24N -29N)
DAY-1
Error in Tmax : N-EAST INDIA
DAY-2
DAY-3
6
(Lon: 75E – 80E,
Lat: 25N -30N)
DAY-4
4
DAY-5
Error in deg C
2
0
1
-2JUNE
2011
-4
7
13
19
25
1
JULY
2011
7
13
19
25
31
6
AUG
2011
12
18
24
30
5 SEP
2011
11
17
23
29
Tmax (Top) and
Tmin (bottom)
over North-East
India
-6
-8
-10
N-EAST INDIA
DAY-1
6
DAY-2
DAY-3
4
Error in deg C
DAY-4
2
-6
29
23
17
11
24
18
S E 30
P
20
11
5
AU
6
12
20
11
31
G
25
19
13
7
Y
JU
L
-4
20
11
25
19
13
7
-2
1
E
20
11
0
JU
N
1
DAY-5
Both Tmax and
Tmin
mostly
under predicts
in all 4 months
i.e. from 1June
to
30
Sep 2011
GFS T574: Seasonal Mean Error in Maximum and Minimum Temperature over different
Homogeneous regions of India
DAY-1
MAE for Tm ax (1 June -30 Septem ber 2011)
DAY-2
DAY-3
5
Temperature in deg C
DAY-4
DAY-5
4
3
2
For 1 June to 30
September,2011
1
0
CENTRAL
INDIA
EAST
INDIA
NE INDIA
NW INDIA
SP INDIA
WEST
COAST
OF INDIA
DAY-1
MAE :for Tmin (1 June-30 September 2011)
DAY-2
DAY-3
5
DAY-4
DAY-5
4
Temp in deg C
Mean Absolute Error
(MAE) of Tmax (top)
and Tmin (bottom)
3
2
1
0
CENTRAL
INDIA
EAST INDIA
NE INDIA
NW INDIA
SP INDIA
WEST
COAST OF
INDIA
Conclusions
• The vertical profile of T574L64 analyses and first guesses fits to
radio-sonde observation for JJAS 2011 shows improvement over
T382L64 analyses.
• The RMSE values of fields of T574L64 forecasts against analyses
and observations show improvements over T382L64 forecasts
 Equitable Threat Square (ETS) computed for different rainfall
thresholds shows that UKMO has higher skill score as compared
with T382 and T574 for rainfall threshold >1.0 cm/day. For rainfall
intensity of 0.01 cm/day all three models feature high ETS (>0.6) for
all days forecast. T574 shows better skill score then T382 for all the
rainfall intensities for all days.
 The impact of more satellite data incorporated in T574L64, especially
the AMVs over the tropics, is more evident in T574L64 analysis and
forecasts when compared to the T382L64 system.
Future data plans (NCMRWF)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
VAD winds from Indian Doppler Weather Radar.
Oscat winds (Oceansat-2 scatterometer)
INSAT / Kalpana AMV
Precipitation rates from MADRAS-MT
GEOS Sounder data
Radiances from INSAT-3D and MT
Preparing plans for Indian Doppler Weather Radar
NCMRWF wish list
• Future NCEP upgrades in
dynamics/physics?
• Higher resolutions? (T764L91? T1148L91/
Semi_Lagrangian?)
• Diversification ? (GEFS, Hybrid GSI-EnKF
VA system)
• More diagnostics and verifications?
• Sensitivity studies and physics
improvements?
• Participation in National/international
compaigns/experiments? (MJOWG, MT)
IMD plans
• GFS T 574
• EPS T 382
• MME based on EPS
Thrust Area: Probabilistic Forecast of high
impact weather in short to medium range
time scale
Hurricane WRF Model
The HWRF model has been implemented at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) following the Implementation
Agreement (IA) between India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) with an objective to provide improved tropical cyclone prediction capability for the Bay of
Bengal and Arabian Sea regions.
Under the program Dr Vijay Kumar and Dr Zhan Zhang, EMC, NCEP, USA were on deputation to IMD, New Delhi in
July 2011 for technology transfer of HWRF model system and provide training on initial operating capability of HWRF
model.
The basic version of the model HWRFV(3.2+) which was operational at EMC, NCEP was ported on IBM P-6/575
machine, IMD with nested domain of 27 km and 9 km horizontal resolution and 42 vertical levels with outer domain
covering the area of 800x800 for NIO and inner domain 60x60 with centre of the system adjusted to the centre of the
observed cyclonic storm.
HWRF model successfully tested for two Bay of Bengal TC cases JAL (4-8 Nov 2010), GIRI (21-22 Oct 2010) with
vortex initialization and 6 hourly cyclic mode using the NCEP GFS data provided EMC team and also tested with IMD
GFS spectral fields . The Atmospheric HWRF model was made operational (Experimental) to run real-time during the
cyclone season-2011.
The Ocean Model and Coupler is to be implement for Indian Ocean region (regional MOM) in collaboration with
EMC, NCEP and Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Ministry of Earth Sciences,
Hyderabad, India by April 2012.
Testing of the atmospheric HWRF model for the last 5 years Cyclonic Storm formed over Arabian Sea and Bay of
Bengal for 6 to 8 cases with vortex initialization and 6 hourly cycling of forecast runs for each case with total 70 to 80
runs using the initial and boundary from NCEP GFS spectral fields are expected to be completed by the end of January
2012 and a joint report will be prepared by the end of February 2012.
THANKS