Spacecast
Introduction to the SPACECAST Project
Richard B Horne
SPACECAST Stakeholders Meeting, BAS, 7th Feb, 2014
Space Weather
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Changes that occur in near-Earth space which can disrupt modern technology
UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies
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Severe Space Weather
Satellite Anomalies – Related to space Weather
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20th Jan 1994
– Intelsat 4, Anik E1 and Anik E2
– Intelsat 4 and Anik E1 were recovered in a few hours
– Anik E2 - Loss of service for 6 months
11th January 1997
– Telstar 401 - Total loss – Insurance payout $132m
19th May 1998
– Galaxy IV - Total loss – Insurance payout $165m
23rd Oct to 6th Nov 2003
– 47 satellites reported malfunctions
– 10 satellites – loss of service for more than 1 day
– Midori 2 - Total loss - US$640m – scientific satellite
5th Apr 2010
– Galaxy 15 - Loss of service for 8 months - drifted around GEO – risk of collision
7th March 2012,
– Sky Terra 1 and Spaceway 3 - Safe mode, loss of service for hours - days
SPACECAST - The Goal
Satellites
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Radiation Belts
Solar Energetic Particles
Goal
– To protect space assets from high and low energy particles by
developing European dynamic modelling and forecasting
capabilities
The SPACECAST Team
BAS
U. of Helsinki
Johns Hopkins
UCLA
K. U. of Leuven
FMI
NASA Goddard
DH Consultancy
Los Alamos
U. of Barcelona
ONERA
Stakeholder - SES, Luxembourg
Exploration Physics Inc.
And many other international collaborations
common for research projects
Satellite Orbits and the Electron Radiation Belts
Wave-Particle Interactions
Satellite observations
Antarctic observations
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Wave-particle interactions cause
electron acceleration and loss
Cause variability
Changed ideas lasting 40 years
Waves and Particles
Kind permission of Andy Kale and Ian Mann, U. of Alberta
Forecasting Concept
ACE satellite
Radiation Belts
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It takes ~ 40-60 minutes for the
solar wind to flow from the ACE
satellite to the Earth
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Access ACE satellite data in
real time and use it to drive our
forecasting models
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We use physical models
– Like weather forecasting
Achievements – Forecast of >800 keV electrons
Model
3 hour
model
forecast
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Whole outer
radiation belt
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GEO, MEO, slot
region
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Forecast turned
into risk of internal
charging
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24/7
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Automatic
GOES satellite data
Risk of Internal Satellite Charging - ESD
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Model results are converted into a risk index
Risk levels are based on previous satellite anomalies at geostationary orbit
GOES 13
Model
Achievements – Nowcast of Low Energy (40 keV) Electrons
Cause of surface charging on satellites
Data
Model
Achievements – Risk of Surface Charging
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Model results are converted into a risk index
Risk levels are based on electron flux and satellite charging at
geostationary orbit
Achievements – Solar Energetic Particle Events
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Captured the evolution of the shock and the magnetic connection between Earth and
the shock – the cobpoint Developed better model of foreshock acceleration – by turbulence
Will enable better empirical models of SEP events
Achievements – Radiation Dose at Geostationary Orbit
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The measured proton flux at geostationary orbit is converted
into a dose rate and displayed in real time
Achievements – Stakeholders
• SPACECAST has developed strong stakeholder interest
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SES (Luxembourg)
Atrium Insurance (UK)
Surrey Satellites (Astrium UK)
Eumetsat (Germany)
Lockheed Martin (USA)
USA – UK collaboration
• Policy advice to Government
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Briefing to NATO MPs
Evidence to UK House of Commons, briefing MPs, Cabinet Office Cttee
National risk register
Severe space weather – input to Royal Academy of Engineering Report
• Press and publications
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3 press releases, 2 TV documentary, 3 radio and podcasts, many press articles
15 research papers in peer reviewed Journals
Summary
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Delivered new research and understanding
• Wave-particle interactions control radiation belt variability – VLF, ULF waves
• Solar wind controls the transport of low energy electrons
• Proton acceleration by wave turbulence at interplanetary shocks
• The magnetic connection between the Earth and the shock is essential
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Setup the first system to forecast the whole outer radiation belt – up to 3 hours ahead
• Geostationary orbit
• Medium Earth orbit
• ‘Slot’ region (the region between the inner and outer belts)
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In real time - Quantify the risk of
• internal satellite charging
• surface charging
• solar proton related damage
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24 hours a day, 7 days a week
Discussion
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What are the most useful results?
How do they compare against other offerings?
How reliable are NOAA data?
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How important is satellite anomaly cause and resolution
Inner radiation belt?
Severe Space Weather events?
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Forecasting – who needs it? how far ahead?
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Other orbits – Medium, Low, slot region? How well provisioned?
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New technology – All electric propulsion – radiation levels – risk levels?
Sunspot Cycle – Geomagnetic Activity
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active sun
quiet sun
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The number of geomagnetic storms is highest 1-2
years after sunspot maximum
Risk is higher during magnetic storms
So expect higher risk for 2014 - 2018