The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016
The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million
Inflated to the year 2016
the bridge should cost under £400 million
So why was it priced at over £4,200 million?
Not the longest
Around 25th from the top
Not the widest deck
Others have 6 and 8 lanes
Not the longest span
Around 7th from the top
Not the highest
Millau bridge is 4 times higher
Not the most towers
Only 3 , the Millau has 7
Not the longest viaducts
Many are MILES long
Not environmentally difficult
No earthquakes/ tornados
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SECTION 1
World Bridges
Comparison Graphs
FRC-The FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING
The MULTIMODAL option –pre Dec 2008 was to cost £4.22 Billion
Issue 3a 4/05/2009 omnie@tiscali.co.uk
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The Proposed Forth Bridge is to be a CABLE STAYED STRUCTURE
This slide gives a brief technical explanation.
Stays
Suspension bridge
Cable-stayed bridge
In the Suspension bridge, a large cable is made up by "spinning" small diameter
wires between two towers, and at each end to anchorages into the ground.
In the Cable-stayed bridge, the towers form the primary load-bearing structure.
It does not require firm anchorages as in the suspension bridge.
It requires less material and much can be pre-fabricated off -lower cost
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Multimodal structure
Road & rail
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£4,220
COST of ALL TYPES OF WORLD’s BRIDGES -£M
£4,000
£4,050
£3,900
£4,500
NOTE :
ALL COSTS USED ARE INFLATED TO 2016 PRICES
£3,500
£3,000
£576
£567
£561
£510
£498
£497
£392
£367
£357
£319
£198
£163
£146
£136
£102
£84
£36
£500
£106
£941
£854
£1,000
£796
£1,500
£1,081
£2,000
£1,081
The FCS was going to be the most
expensive bridge ever built.
£2,500
£-
5
40.00
COMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES
35.00
30.00
The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking..
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
Km
5.00
-
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10 Longest Bridges Ever Built
No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Bridge
Chesapeake Bay
Seven Mile
San Mateo-Hayward
Confederation
Rio-Niteroi
Penang
Vasco da Gama
King Fahd Causeway
Donghai
Lake Pontchartrain
Country
USA
USA
USA
USA
Brazil
Malay
Portugal
Saudi
China
USA
Length
m
7,000
10,887
11,265
12,900
13,290
13,500
17,200
26,000
32,500
38,420
Year
Build
1952
1982
1967
1977
1976
1985
1998
1986
2010
1969
4
3 1/2
4
3 1/2
5 1/2
3 3/4
1 1/2
3 3/4
2 1/2
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Cost £M
2016
£480
£64
£182
£2,604
£237
£376
£898
£1,797
£600
£336
The FRC is a tiny 2,700 metres
NOTE: Only one took 5 ½ Years to build
At £4,220 million the FRC was far costlier –even against these giants
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4,220
4,500
COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£M
4,000
3,500
Again – the FRC is
by far the most costly
3,000
2,500
2,000
163
146
106
102
84
36
1,081
576
567
561
497
392
367
500
319
796
1,000
941
1,500
0
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£1,800
COST OF BRIDGES PER METRE LENGTH -£100K
£1,600
£1,400
£1,563
£1,563
The average cost per metre is under £200K
£1,200
£1,000
The FRC was £1,500K per metre
£800
£600
£400
£200
£-
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SECTION 2
THE ORESUND CROSSING
The largest/longest Multimodal
crossing ever built
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It is a COMBINED road & rail bridge
It has a bridge & a tunnel.
The bridge is 7,850 metres;
Almost 3 times the FRC at 2,700 metres
The tunnel is 4,050 metres. FRC rejected the tunnel
Oresund required a huge 4 Km artificial island
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The Oresund Project
This Megastructure links Sweden & Denmark
The Oresund
Crossing
Forth Bridge
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Artificial Island
Road & Rail
Bridge
Road & Rail
Tunnel
7,850 metres
4050 metres
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The Oresund Crossing
Superimposed in Fife
From South Queensferry
to Kelty
16.4 Km
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An artificial island had to be
constructed across the water to
join the tunnel and the bridge
The Island is some 4 Km long
The FRC is 2.7Km long
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A 4 km tunnel was required
to allow shipping access
The Tunnel has road and rail
It is submerged into the dredged
sea bed.
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Finally the Bridge
Road & Rail (multimodal)
The longest such bridge in the
world – over 7Km long
Almost 5 MILES
Almost 3
times longer than
the FRC
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Let’s now look at the relative costs
The FRC is estimated to be approx.
10% of size of the Oresund Crossing.
Comparing like for like
•With prices inflated to 2016 prices.
•With full multimodal options.
• With all access roads etc. included
The Oresund Crossing cost £4.11 Billion *
The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.22 Billion
* The Government report has this at around 7.2% higher.
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Remember -the Oresund is 10 times greater than the FRC
The Oresund Project took ….5 ½ years
And what is the FRC scheduled to take??…5 ½ years
Using Government advised data I have the Oresund cost at £4.11 Bn
Transport Scotland put the cost of the Oresund project at £4.43 Bn.
THIS FIGURE WAS GIVEN TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ‘S (ALL PARTY)
TRANSPORT COMMITTEE – THEY MADE NO COMMENT!!!
Don’t believe it??
Read on……
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Do you know this
man?
Professor John
Kay.
BSc PhD FIET, C eng
Chosen Financial
Adviser
to the
SCOTTISH
GOVERNMENT.
Commented….
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Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the
FRC
“Expressed astonishment”
“..more than 4 times the final
cost of the much longer Oresund
bridge”
“10 times the cost of France's
iconic Millau crossing”
And if anyone thinks the initial cost…
is likely to emerge as the final bill,
..they should think again.
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SECTION 3
COMPARING THE FRC WITH THE SEVERN BRIDGE
The multimodal option was dropped in Dec 2008
We can compare now compare it with a similar UK crossing
IT DOEN’T GET ANY BETTER – READ ON >>>>
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The 2nd Severn Crossing offers a good comparison
They are both UK projects
They have similar environments
They are in comparatively contemporary projects
They are similar Cable Stayed structures
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Structural Comparisons
Length
m
Severn 5200
Forth
2700
Lanes
6
Roads
Km
18.5
4
4
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Second Severn Crossing
The 1964 bridge cost £9 Million
The 1996 bridge cost £330 Million+ £150 million for roads etc.
The 2016 cost is £750 Million
Transport Scotland have it at £890 million
025
The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20M
At current costs - £300M
The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324M
So where do they arrive at £2,3400M???
The 1966 bridge cost £20 Million
A pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 Million
The 2016 cost is £2,340 Million
026
The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20M
At current costs - £300M
The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324M
So where do they arrive at £2,3400M???
Now remember the statistics
Length Lanes Roads
m
Km
Severn 5200
6
18.5
Forth
2700
4
4
Build
Time
4
Cost
£750m
5.5
£2,340m
027
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SECTION 4
THE TUNNEL OPTION
Why was it rejected ?
First – a wee bit history
On 4th April 2000 a presentation by the contractors of the Scottish
Parliament building was arranged for ALL politicians prior to the BIG
DEBATE on the exploded costs
ONLY SIXTEEN SMPs TURNED UP
On 15th January 2009 a debate to decide on the structure of the
FRC – the largest Scottish project ever -took place in Holyrood.
ONLY SEVENTEEN SMPs TURNED UP
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This extremely detailed 120 page report was commission to
examine FRC options
Paragraph 3 detailed TUNNEL options, including
• Bored tunnels
•Immersed tunnels
•Tunnel Alignment
• Geology & Topology
•Tunnel Services
•Design Codes Standards etc
•Compliance with UN/EC regulations
This was NOT a preliminary exploration , it was a detailed examination of all
aspects of which tunnel would be most appropriate
Several detailed drawings were produced illustrating the detailed study…..
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CONCLUSION
EXTRACT
“Tunnel options adjacent to the existing bridges would also have been more
expensive than a bridge ……….”
AND WHAT WAS THEIR ESTIMATED COST….?
£598M
Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose TENFOLD………
Don’t believe it ? Read on…
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Finance and Sustainable Growth
Secretary
John Swinney
Scottish Parliament
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
•· Cable-stayed bridge
•· Suspension bridge
•· Bored Tunnel
I have set out the cost
estimates for the
options…..
£3.25 billion - £4.22 billion
£3.62 billion - £4.70 billion
£5.12 billion - £6.60 billion
Do you know what the Channel (bored) tunnel cost??
The gigantic ,31.4 mile (50Km), twin rail crossing with service / safety tunnel
The official cost (not mine) was…£4.65
At current prices it is……
billion
£10. 2 billion
So there we have it - a mere one mile river Fife crossing was to cost more
than 60% that of a gigantic 26 mile sea crossing.
NOT ONE PARLIAMENTARIAN QUESTIONED THIS !!!!!
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SECTION 5
WORLD BRIDGES
Finally a look at other world
bridges for comparisons
Is the FRC really so expensive?
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RECENT WORLDWIDE BRIDGE PROJECTS
Note the comparative size/lengths of the structures
•Note the date of construction
•Note the final costs are at 2016 rates
As far as can be determined these costs include ALL
infrastructures – design, construction, access roads, electrics etc
– i.e. these are the TOTAL costs – least expensive first
035
Q E II Bridge
DARTFORD
Opened in 1991
at a cost of
£86Million
Q E II
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
2877
4
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
3
5.5
Cost
2016
£139m
£2,340m
10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRC
The Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M?
036
MILLAU VIADUCT
France
Opened in 2004
at a cost of
€349m
Length Lanes Towers
m
Millau 2460
4
7
Forth 2700
4
3
Build
Time
3
5.5
Cost
2016
£319m
£2,340m
Highest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers.
Opened only 4 years ago and breaking many world records in technology
Of course it is vastly different – but why the huge price difference???
037
BOB GRAHAM
Florida
Opened in 1987
at a cost of $244
BOB
GRAHAM
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
8851
4
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
4
Cost
2016
£367m
5.5
£2,340m
This Cable Stayed bridge has no outstanding features worthy of comment –
except
It’s over 3 times the length of the FRC and cost the Americans only 15% of
what we are expected to pay
038
Arthur Ravenel
S. Carolina
Opened in 2005
at a cost of $541
Arthur
Ravenel
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
4023
8
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
4
Cost
2016
£392m
5.5
£2,340m
This Cable Stayed bridge has EIGHT lanes
Again we have a much larger structure at under half a billion.
039
VASCO de GAMA
Opened in 1998
at a cost of
$1000m
Vasco de
Gama
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
17200
6
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
1.5
5.5
Cost
2016
£941m
£2,340m
The bridge was opened to traffic …18 months after construction first began
6 lanes; 120 year life; wind shielding etc. etc. and over 10 miles long.
ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST
040
HANGZOU BAY
China
Opened in 2008
at a cost of $1700
Hangzou
Bay
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
35,673
6
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
4
Cost
2016
£1081m
5.5
£2,340m
The bridge is the second longest cable stayed bridge in the world
6 lanes wide, 22 miles long and built in FOUR years – How can a tiny wee
bridge at less than 10% this size take much longer to build at twice the cost
041
PONT de
NORMANDIE
France
Opened in 1995
For $465
PONT de
NORMANDIE
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
2143
4
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
7
Cost
2016
£567m
5.5
£2,340m
The bridge is the longest Cable Stayed bridge in the world.
Even with the extended build time it still came in at a QUARTER of the cost.
042
Akashi Kaikyo
Japan
Opened in 1998
For $4,300
Akashi
Kaikyo
Forth
Length Lanes Towers
m
3911
4
2
2700
4
3
Build
Time
7
Cost
2016
£4,050m
5.5
£2,340m
It is the longest, tallest, and most expensive suspension bridge ever built.
The FRC would have been dearer at £4,220; we would have had
THE WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGE EVER
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SECTION 5
COSTING HISTORY
We now review the costings
given out for the bridge
Is this contract under tight control?
– you judge……
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No Date
Source
Cost
1
Jun 04 FETA
£500 m
2
Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell
£500 m
3
Feb 07 Scottish Government
4
Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630 m
5
Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220 m
6
Dec 08 Scottish Government £1,720 TO £2.340 m
£1,000+ m
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Jacobs and Maunsell’s 121 page report/survey
for FETA in Jan 2005
Construction
Tender details from Transport Scotland
Extract 1 – Multimodal bridge
European Journal Management contract
Cost in 2005
£516 Million
TS estimate
£30 to £60 Million
Cost in 2007
£4,220 Million
Contact let at
£100 Million
Extract 2 – Tunnel
Estimated cost
£598 Million
Cost now
£6,600 Million
Extract 3 – Windshielding
Cost in 2005
£1.5 Million
Cost in 2007
£8.5 Million
European Journal Construction estimate
TS estimate
£1 Billion +
Cost currently
£4,220 Million
And the contract hasn’t even started
yet.
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BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT
LAND-MANAGEMENT-THE BRIDGE-ACCESS ROADS
LAND
The Government already own large areas needed and indications are that
land costs are not significant – say £20M
Balance £4,200 Million
MANAGEMENT
Already let at the huge sum of £100 million
Balance £4,100 Million
THE BRIDGE
A letter to me from Transport Scotland gave a multimodal bridge (across
the water) cost at £1,200M
Balance £2,900 Million
ACCESS ROADS
This leaves 17Km of access roads to a pay for……
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BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT
ACCESS ROADS (calculation 1) -17Km dual carriage way
The A9000 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – A pro rata price
for the FRC would be £132 million .
Inflated to 2016 it would be less than £200 Million
ACCESS ROADS (calculation 2)-17Km Full motorway
The average cost of a MOTORWAY in the UK is £30M per mile UK (Gov
Statistic.) The FRC access road is NOT motorway standard, however even
allowing for a 6 lane highway the cost also should be £200 million
OUTSTANDING BALANCE
£2,700 million – WHAT’S IT FOR??
NOTE
The M74 is currently the UKs most expensive motorway at £140m per mile.
The next most expensive in Ireland &England are well under £50M
That’s another story…….
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In Dec 2008 they cheered a cost reduction of £1.88 Bn ????
Let’s try again…..
LAND
The Government already own large areas needed and indications are that
land costs are not significant – say £20M
No Saving
MANAGEMENT
Already let at the huge sum of £100 million still stands
No Saving
THE BRIDGE
Faber &Maunsell reduced the multimodal to the “road only” by 0.25%**
i.e. From £1,2000 million to £900 million**
Saving £300 million
** From £516 million to £381 million –Faber Mausell Jan 2005 report PP 64
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ACCESS ROADS 1 -4.Km dual carriage way
The A900 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – Virtually the
same for the. Inflated to 2016 the savings would be around £150 million
Savings £150 million
TOTAL SAVINGS
£450 million
TRANSPORT SCOTLAND HAVE THE SAVINGS AT
£1,880 million – where are the other savings?
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Is Prof. Hay correct. Is the Bridge on Schedule?
March – 2009 Sunday Herald
…running at least five months behind schedule.
The financing of the project - is already in disarray
TS’s own internal documents also raise serious doubts….
Built in China TS is looking at ways to save money….
“Guy Houston, former finance director of the government
agency Transport Scotland, who mysteriously resigned”…..
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“Facts do not cease to exist
because they are ignored.”
Aldous Huxley
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