The All Hazards Risk
Assessment
Presentation to the Risk Assessment User
Group
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Outline of the Presentation
● Background of the AHRA
● Principles of the Government of Canada’s All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA)
initiative
● Demonstrate utility of using an all hazards approach
- Science and technological integration
- Results from the previous cycles
● The AHRA process
- AHRA Taxonomy
- AHRA Methodology
- Outputs from the AHRA
●
Heat maps
●
Fiche
1
Background – AHRA
●
In 2007, Emergency Management Act (EMA) passed:
-
Ministers must identify risks within their area of responsibility, prepare plans and maintain,
test, implement and exercise those emergency management plans
●
In 2007, DRDC CSS began exploring the development of an AHRA
●
In 2009, Public Safety began championing the initiative and leads:
●
-
An interdepartmental consultation to better understand the risk assessment environment
-
A two-year pilot project to develop an AHRA
In 2011, Assistant Deputy Minister (ADM) safety and security level committee is briefed on
status of AHRA:
●
-
Results of the pilot are provided
-
Approval to proceed with second spiral/cycle of assessments is granted
In Winter 2012 results were presented and endorsed by ADM – EMC members
2
Principles – All Hazards Risk Assessment (AHRA)
Purpose
q
• Support effective EM planning in federal institutions through coordinated approach to risk
assessment – articulates the Federal Policy for Emergency Management and complements the EM
Planning Guide.
Federal Scope
q
• Supports Ministers in meeting their legislative responsibility under the EM Act to identify risks
within or related to their mandate and develop EM plans in respect of those risks.
All Hazards Approach
• A mechanism for assessing and comparing all hazards regardless of the source or vector (whether
malicious or non-malicious).
Integrated Approach
• Provides a Government of Canada picture rather than an individual perspective from each
department – supports federal priority setting and Public Safety’s leadership coordination role.
3
A Collaboratively Developed Methodology
● Inspired by risk assessment approaches undertaken by the United Kingdom
and the Netherlands
● During the methodology development stage and the pilot process, PS
engaged 26 federal institutions
● Smaller working groups have been developed to:
- Determine scenarios to address
- Validate results
- Work on specific aspects of the methodology
● Buy in from federal institutions was key and provided legitimacy for the
process
● PS relies on experts from federal institutions who are “closest” to the Impact
Category to provide an assessments of the scenario
● Institutions CAN modify the methodology to meet their own planning needs.
4
Process – AHRA Risk Taxonomy
Risk Taxonomy
All-Hazards Risk Event Categories
Adaptive/Malicious Threats
Intentional
Threats
Criminal:
- Terrorist Act
- Extremist Act
- Individual Criminal Act
- Organised Crime
- Corporate/Insider Sabotage
- Corporate Espionage
Foreign State:
- State-Sponsored Terrorism
- Espionage
- Act of War
Non- Malicious Threats/Hazards
Unintentional
Threats/Hazards
Health
Threats/Hazards
Social:
- Migration
- Social Unrest/Civil Disobedience
Pandemics/Epidemics:
- Human Health Related
- Animal Health Related
Technical/Accidental:
- Spill
- Fire
- Explosion
- Structural Collapse
- System Error(s) Yielding Failure
Large-Scale Contamination:
- Food/Water/Air Contaminant
- Environment Contaminant
Emerging Phenomena & Technologies:
- Biological Science & Technology
- Health Sciences
- (Re) emerging Health Hazards
- Chemical Compounds
- Emerging Natural Hazard(s)
- Material Science & Engineering
- Information Technologies
Natural
Threats/Hazards
Meteorological:
- Hurricane
- Tornado/Wind Storm
- Hail/Snow/ Ice Storm
- Flood/Storm Surge
- Avalanche
- Forest Fire
- Drought
- Extreme Temperatures
Geological:
- Tsunami
- Earthquake
- Volcanic Eruption
- Land/Mudslide
- Land Subsidence
- Glacier/Iceberg Effects
- Space Weather
Ecological/Global Phenomena:
- Infestations
- Effects of Over-Exploitation
- Effects of Excessive Urbanisation
- Global Warming
- Extreme Climate Change Conds.
CLASSIFICATION
5
Methodology Government of Canada AHRA Process
6
AHRA Methodology – Impact Categories
Environment
Territorial
Security
Canada’s
Reputation &
Influence
Economy
People
Impact
Assessment
Society &
Psycho-social
AHRA Methodology – Likelihood / Probability
-Two approaches to determine likelihood are used:
Likelihood for
natural/accidental
hazards
• Through elicitation, experts provide qualitative
judgment by considering overall capability
(technical feasibility and enabling capabilities)
and intent. Confidence level recorded.
Calibration process follows.
• Quantitative approach by which experts draw
on historical data to determine the probability.
Confidence level recorded.
Likelihood assessment
Likelihood for
malicious
scenarios
8
Methodology - AHRA Risk Scoring Tool
● An Excel-based spreadsheet was developed to record discussions and impact
assessments from federal experts.
9
AHRA Business Cycle
10
Process - Output
AHRA Heat Map
Risk results for six scenarios aggregated across six impact categories
Non-malicious
5
Iso-risk lines
Pandemic
Influenza
4
People
-
Economy
Marine Oil Spill
Impact
Impact
3
Environment
FMD
Canada’s reputation and
influence
2
Territorial security
Flood
Society and psycho-social
Listeriosis
Increased risk
1
Hurricane
0
0
1
2 Likelihood
3
4
5
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Process - Output
AHRA Scenario Fiche
Brief scenario description
Collaborative rating of
scenario impacts and likelihood
Analysis of scenario
outcome &graph
demonstrating confidence levels
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Leveraging the AHRA to inform:
EM policy &
program
development
Long Term Objective:
A National Risk
Assessment
that identifies
risks to Canada
and enhances
the safety and
security of
Canadians.
Product:
National Risk Register
Assessing Capabilities
Current Scope
Training,
exercises,
lessons
learned
Emergency
management
planning
AHRA
Informing and validating SEMPs
National and
international
collaboration
Security &
intelligence
Explore Expanding AHRA to National Scope
Lessons Learned and Leading Practices
●
Lessons Learned:
- Engage experts early and frequently in
development and validation of
methodology – builds credibility.
- But, be prepared to bring development of
methodology to a close and commit to
update it on an annual basis – satisfies
scientists that new techniques can be
incorporated and lets process move
forward.
- Promote ownership through multilevel
governance process that engages
scientists/experts as well as senior
managers – let colleagues be your
ambassadors.
- Provide a road map for partners – hard to
do when process is new but keeps everyone
on board.
- Don’t let data gaps stop you – create a
“parking lot” for new ideas and assign a
lead.
●
Leading Practices:
- Work through networks to identify the
right experts for risk scenarios and risk
scoring – experts wanted to be involved
and never said “no”.
- Be prepared: Experts did research
beforehand and came to workshops with
data in hand.
- Let experts decide: Brought intelligence
community together to develop
methodology for assessing likelihood of
malicious threats.
- Sought formal feedback at each stage of
process in order to course correct and
improve it in subsequent years.
- Knowledge transfer: Federal organizations
using AHRA Methodology to conduct
additional risk assessments and upload
their results to whole-of-government
process.
14
Success Stories
● AHRA Methodology
- Health Portfolio
● Scenarios
- Various Federal Exercises
● Collaboration
- Collaboration with experts across federal organizations
- Collaboration with CSS
- Outreach activities
- SEMP
International
- DRM Framework deliverable for G20 Finance Ministers
15
Proposed Forward Approach for AHRA
• Expand AHRA for Capability Assessment
•
Pilot Capability Assessment with a select number of scenarios
Step 1: Environmental Scan
Step 2: Risk Assessment
Step 3: Capability Assessment
Step 4: Recommended Options
• Explore expanding the scope of the AHRA beyond the federal
community to include P/Ts and/or regions
•
Explore expanding AHRA in select P/Ts or regions
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Julie Cranton
Chief, AHRA and IDO
Emergency Management and
Planning Division
[email protected]
Connie Cheung
Senior Policy Advisor
Emergency Management and
Planning Division
[email protected]
For more information: [email protected]
The All Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology Guidelines 2011-2012 were
published on the Public Safety Canada (PS) website in July 2012
http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/prg/em/emp/2012-ahra/index-eng.aspx
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PS-SP-#749183-3-AHRA - Presentation - RAUG