REVISED SCHEDULE
• February 2: Drug Trafficking
• February 9: Migration
• February 16: Mexico’s War on Drugs
• March 02:
War on Terror
• March 09:
Obama and Latin America
1
PAPER ASSIGNMENT
• Topic: Any subject related to U.S.-Latin American relations (whether
or not covered in class)—proposed by student and approved by TA
• Examples: Sports (e.g. baseball), film (depictions of Latina women),
music (lyrics, popularity of stars, etc.), advertising (Corona beer)
• In-class examples: Content of Latin American nationalism, impacts
of drug war (e.g., Plan Colombia or Plan Mérida), reactions to 9/11,
Bush/Obama relationship with Latin leaders, Hugo Chávez
phenomenon, evaluations of NAFTA
• Length: 8-12 double-spaced pages (plus notes or bibliography)
• Due: Wednesday, March 2
2
FORMAT FOR PAPER
• Introduce topic (and its importance)
• Present a central question
• Describe sources and methods (how will
you answer your question?)
• Analyze information and data
• Conclusion:
– Respond to your central question(s)
– Suggest avenues for further research (optional)
3
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF
DRUG TRAFFICKING
INTRODUCTION
1.
2.
3.
4.
Pervasiveness of issue
Typicality? Or an extreme case?
Categorizing “illicit drugs”—
•
Marijuana
•
Heroin
•
Cocaine
•
Designer drugs
Note: Dangerous prescription drugs
4
READING
• Smith, Talons, ch. 8 [review]
• CR Selection 5: Astorga and Shirk, “Drug
Trafficking Organizations and Counter-Drug
Strategies”
• DFC, Contemporary, chs. 2 and 9 (Mexico +
Colombia)
5
OUTLINE
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Global Market
The Structure of Profits
Patterns in U.S, Consumption
U.S. Policy: The Drug Wars
Implications for Latin America
Drug Wars in Mexico
• Questions of Public Policy: What Are the
Alternatives?
6
THE GLOBAL MARKET:
STRUCTURE AND SCALE
1. Worldwide flows, variations by drug
2. Consumption around the world
3.
Roles for Latin America: the rise of “cartels”
4. The U.S. market: magnitudes, profits and costs
7
Global Production and Trafficking
MDMA
1000
Cocaine
800
Bolivia
600
Peru
400
Colombia
200
0
1996
1997 1998 1999
2000
Potential Opium Production (mt)
Potential Cocaine Production (mt)
Amphetamine Type
Stimulants
6000
Heroin
5000
4000
Mexico
Colombia
SE Asia
SWAsia
3000
2000
1000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
8
Sources of Heroin
Metric Tons
6,000
Colombia
5,106 5,000
5,000
3,441 3,389
Mexico
4,452 4,263
4,068
4,000
5,082
Pakistan
3,671
Thailand
3,302
3,000
Vietnam
2,000
Laos
1,264
1,000
Afghanistan
Burma
0
91
ONDCP/FEB02
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
* Values for Latin America are projected
00
01*
Users of Heroin by World Region
Number of people (in millions)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Americas
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
Total
Region
10
Estimated Cocaine Flows
3 percent
Direct to U.S.
43 percent
Caribbean
Corridor
54 percent
Mexico/Central
American Corridor
11
Users of Cocaine by World Region
Number of people (in millions)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
North
America
South
America
Europe
Asia
Africa
Oceania
Total
Region
12
Perspectives on Cocaine
Worldwide Consumption
Increasing
1990 = 500 MT 2000 = 600
MT
U.S. Portion of
Worldwide Consumption
Declining
1990 = 400 MT 2000 = 300
MT
All coca grown in the
Andean Region
13
Cocaine Flows to Non-U.S. Markets
CANADA 7%
EUROPE 92%
ASIA < 1%
AFRICA < 1%
ONDCP/FEB02
14
Who Are the Winners…?
•
•
Where are the profits?
Price structure of one kilo of pure cocaine,
mid-1990s:
Coca leaf (e.g., farmgate in Peru)
Export of finished product (Colombia)
Import of finished product (Miami)
$20,500
Wholesale by kilo (in Chicago)
Wholesale in one-ounce packets (Chicago)
Final retail value (Chicago)
$ 370
$1,200
$31,000
$62,000
$ 148,000
15
Trends in Drug Consumption, 1985-2000
Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug
15
New survey
series*
10
5
*The survey methodology was changed in 1999.
Estimates based on the new survey series are not
comparable to previous years.
0
1985 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.
16
Current Usage by Drug, 2000
Past Month Users (in Millions)
Any Illicit Drug
14
Marijuana
10.7
Cocaine
(incl. crack)
Crack
1.2
0.265
Hallucinogens
0.97
Inhalants
0.62
LSD
0.4
Heroin
0.13
Nonmedical Use
(any psychotherapeutic)
3.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
14
16
17
U.S. DRUG USERS
• 2000
= 14.0 million (6.3%)
• 2004
= 19.1 million (7.9%)
• 2007
= 19.9 million (̴ 8%)
18
Usage of Marijuana
Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Illicit Drugs, 2000
Only a drug
other than
marijuana
24%
Marijuana 17%
and some
other drug
59%
Marijuan
a only
19
Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Drug Abuse by Age Cohort
Percent Reporting Past Month Use of an Illicit Drug
25
Prime example of an aging
cohort of drug users -- this
group began use in 1970s.
19.6
20
16.4
15
13.2
9.8
10
7.8
7
5.3
5
6.5
3
4.8
2.4
0.3
0
12-13 14-15 16-17 18-20 21-25 26-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-64
Years
of age
Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
65+
20
Drug usage among High-School Seniors
Percent Reporting Use of “Any Illicit Drug”
25.7
12th
41.4
53.9
30-Day
Annual
Lifetime
22.7
10th
37.2
45.6
11.7
8th
19.5
26.8
0
10
20
30
40
Source: Monitoring the Future Study
50
60
21
Consumer Expenditures on Illicit Drugs,
2000
U.S. Users Spend $63.2 Billion Annually
Billions of Dollars
(Projections for 1999)
45.0
40.0
37.1
Source: ONDCP Paper,
What America’s Users Spend on
Illegal Drugs
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
11.9
15.0
10.4
10.0
5.0
1.6
2.3
Meth
Other
0.0
Cocaine
Heroin
Marijuana
22
Economic Costs of Drug Abuse
$160
Dollars, in Billions
$140
$120
$100
$80
$143.4
$60
$40
$20
$44.1
$58.3
$102.2
$109.8
1992
1995
$66.9
$0
1985
1988
1990
1998
23
Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.
Calculation of Economic Costs of
Drug Abuse
(Billions of dollars)
$12.9
$32.1
Health Care
Lost Earnings
$98.5
Other Impacts
24
Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.
U.S. POLICY: THE DRUG WARS
1. Participants and processes
2. Strategic content:
• Goal: Reduce illegal drug use and
availability
• Enforcement > education, treatment,
thus 2:1 ratio in federal budget
• Supply control > demand reduction,
thus interdiction and eradication
• Assumption: One policy fits all….
• Criteria for evaluation
25
Federal Expenditures on Drug Control,
1980-2000
$14.4
$13.0
$12.0
$11.9
$11.6
$19.2
$18.8
$18.1
$4.6
$2.8
$2.7
$1.9
$1.6
$1.5
5
$2.3
$4.7
$6.5
10
$10.7
All Other Year: Actual Expenditures
$9.6
15
$13.0
FY 2002: Enacted Level
$17.8
FY 2003: President’s Request
$15.2
20
$17.1
Dollars, in Billions
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
0
26
Composition of Federal Expenditures, 2000
Dollars, in Billions
Fiscal Year 1986 -2003
20
15
Interdiction
International
Domestic Law Enforcement
Demand Reduction
10
5
FY
02
FY
00
FY
98
FY
96
FY
94
FY
92
FY
90
FY
88
FY
86
0
27
COCAINE SEIZED (MT)
Challenges to Interdiction
250
ARRIVAL ZONE
200
3% direct
150
100
TRANSIT ZONE
21% 10%
50
0
1996
1997
Source Zone
1990
1998
Transit Zone
1999
2000
CHANGES IN THREAT
• World consumption
dominated by US
•Transit movement via
aircraft
•Cultivation primarily
from Peru and Bolivia
ONDCP/FEB02
16%
Arrival Zone
2000
50%
• Increasing European
consumption
•Transit movement via
maritime vessels
•Cultivation primarily
from Colombia
SOURCE: Annual Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement, April 2001
SOURCE
ZONE
28
Interdiction of Cocaine, 1999
75 METRIC TONS
DETECTED
DEPARTING FOR
NON-US MARKETS
512
Metric
Tons
Depart
South
America
for U.S.
54%
277 MT
43%
220 MT
3%
15 MT
Transit Zone Arrival Zone
Seizures
Seizures
MEXICO /
CENTRAL
AMERICAN
CORRIDOR
CARIBBEAN
CORRIDOR
DIRECT TO
CONTINENTAL
U.S.
-60 MT
-14 MT
-37 MT
-7 MT
382 MT
Potentially
Arrives in
the U.S.
-12 MT
29
U.S. Prison Population, 1985-2000
Federal Prisons
145,416
Number of Inmates, in Millions
2,100
1,750
Local Jails
621,149
1,400
1,050
700
State Prisons
1,236,476
350
0
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2001
1998
1999
30
2000
Imprisonment of Drug Offenders, 1980-2000
68,360 Drug Offenders
in Federal Prison in 1999
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
251,200 Drug Offenders
in State Prisons in 1999
50,000
0
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
93
94
95
96
97
98 99
31
Reasons for Drug Arrests, 2000
Arrests for Drug Abuse Violations, 2000
15.8%
9.3%
5.6%
4.1%
Sale/Manufacture
Heroin/Cocaine
Sale/Manufacture
Marijuana
Sale/Manufacture
Other Drugs
Possession Marijuana
24.2%
40.9%
Source: Uniform Crime Reports, FBI.
Possession
Heroin/Cocaine
Possession other
Dangerous Drugs
32
IMPLICATIONS FOR LATIN AMERICA
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Economic costs and benefits
Violence (and “drug wars” in multiple forms)
Corruption
Growth in consumption
Threats to governability
Challenges to sovereignty—e.g., invasion of
Panama 1989
Process of “certification” (now modified)
33
34
35
QUESTIONS OF PUBLIC POLICY:
WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES?
INTRODUCTION
1. What might be desirable? Or feasible?
2. What are the prospects?
36
ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES?
1. Continuation (or acceleration) of
current policy:



Increased budgets
Establish coherence
Long-term durability
37
2.
Legalization:



Regulation, not legalization
Decriminalization?
Partial or complete?
38
3. Changing priorities:





Demand reduction > law enforcement
Law enforcement = more on money
laundering, less on retail pushers
Focus on governability as key issue
in Latin America
Multilateral efforts against
consumption and demand, rather
than supply
What about certification?
39
Availability of Treatment
Percent of Population 12 or Older
7
6.3
6
5
4
3
2
1.2
0.6
1
0
Current Drug
User
.
Drug Dependent
Received
Treatment
40
41
42
Costs and Benefits of Drug Treatment
$15,000
$13,902
Cost
Benefit
$12,000
$9,000
$7,954
$7,630
$5,259
$6,000
$4,160
$3,813
$3,000
$2,895
$2,051
$2,575
$2,547
$0
Ambulatory
Outpatient
Long-Term
Residential
Short-Term
Residential
Outpatient
Methadone
Short-Term
Hospital
43
Source: CSAT, National Evaluation Data Services Report
ENLIGHTENMENT IN
LATIN AMERICA!
• Marijuana personal use is decriminalized in :
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Argentina
Brazil (depenalized)
Colombia
Costa Rica
Mexico
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
44
AND NOW, THE WAR ON TERRORISM…
45