VOTER TURNOUT
in the 2012 Election
Presented by
Nonprofit VOTE is the nation’s largest provider of voter
engagement resources and trainings designed specifically
for nonprofits to help them to integrate nonpartisan voter
participation into their ongoing activities and services.
Nonprofit VOTE is voter participation partner of the
National Association of Secretaries of State for the
nonprofit sector
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TODAY’S PRESENTERS
Julian Johannesen
Sophie Lehman
Director of Research and Training Communications Director
Nonprofit VOTE
Nonprofit VOTE
Who
http://www.nonprofitvote.org/voter-turnout.html
AGENDA

Measuring Voter Turnout

Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections

The Swing State and Election Day Registration
Effects

The Youth Vote

The Latino Vote

Gaps in Voter Turnout by Demographic

Improving Voting and Elections
Agenda
MEASURING VOTER TURNOUT
• Common Measurements
•
•
As a % of Registered Voters
As a % of Eligible Voters
• Voter Turnout
• Highest Office and Total
Turnout
• Voting Eligible Population
• 18 and over, citizen, exoffender
Measuring
Voter
Turnout
TURNOUT DEMOGRAPHICS
• What is the National Election Exit Poll?
• What does the NEEP report?
– Share of the vote by demographics
– Issue preferences
– Partisan choice
• The Census’ Current Population Survey Voting
Measuring
and Registration Supplement
– Voter turnout estimates by demographic
– Available in the spring after the election
Voter
Turnout
http://www.cnn.com/election/2
012/results/race/president
http://elections.nytimes.com/2
012/results/president/exit-polls
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/
VOTER TURNOUT IN
PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS
VOTER TURNOUT IN 2012
• 58.7% of voting
eligible citizens
turned out to vote
in the 2012
presidential
election, about
130.3 million voters
• Turnout was dragged down by low
turnout in the large states like
California, New York, and Texas
Voter
Turnout
2012
THE VOTER TURNOUT TREND
HIGH TURNOUT STATES
FACTORS AFFECTING TURNOUT
Many factors affect state turnout, e.g. whether there are
other competitive races on the ballot or a controversial
ballot measure – and the mobilization that goes with
that.
But the two strongest predictors of state voter turnout
are:
1) Whether a state is a swing state
2) Whether a state has Election Day
registration
Voter
Turnout
2012
SWING STATES
AND
ELECTION DAY
REGISTRATION
SWING STATES
• What is a “Swing State?”
• Turnout in the 10 swing
states was 65.2%, 7.2
points higher than in nonswing states, which had an
average turnout of 58%.
• Five of the ten states with
the highest turnout in 2012
were swing states
Swing and
EDR
SWING STATES AND SPENDING
Swing and
EDR
Source: Washington Post Online, “Mad Money: TV ads in the 2012 presidential campaign”
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
• What is “Election Day registration?”
• In 2012, states with Election Day registration had
average turnout of 71.3%, 12.5 points higher than
the turnout in states without EDR. Those states had
an average turnout rate of 58.8%.
• Five of the ten states with the highest turnout in
2012 have some form of Election Day registration.
Swing and
EDR
ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION
YOUTH VOTE
AND
LATINO VOTE
YOUTH VOTE
• Young voters increased their
share of the electorate by
one point, from 18% in 2008
to 19% in 2012
• The youth vote was a
determining factor in four
swing states.
• Youth turnout was especially high in swing states
– an estimated 58%, compared to just 47% in
non-swing states.
• Young voters were the most racially and
ethnically diverse segment of the electorate.
Youth and
Latino
YOUTH VOTE
LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE
• In 2012, the Latino share of the vote rose to 10%.
• Latino turnout is estimated at 53%, that’s six points
below the national average. Roughly 12.5 million
Latinos voted out of a voting eligible population of
about 23.7 million.
• Latino voters are a crucial voting bloc in many states,
including swing states like Colorado, Florida, and
Nevada. In Colorado the Latino share of
Youth and
Latino
the vote was 14%, in Florida 17%, and in
Nevada 18%, all higher than in 2008
LATINO VOTE & THE RISING ELECTORATE
Youth and
Latino
OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS
• The African American vote held steady at 13%
of the electorate and may have surpassed the
white vote in percent turnout
• API share of vote grew to 3%. With a 47%
partisan gap favoring Obama over Romney
• Early voting continued to rise but more slowly.
35% voted early.
Youth and
Latino
VOTER TURNOUT
GAPS
VOTER TURNOUT GAPS
Gaps
IMPROVING VOTING
AND ELECTIONS
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION
• Online, paperless
voter registration
• Election Day
Registration or sameday registration
during early voting
periods
Registration
Modernization
VOTER REGISTRATION MODERNIZATION
• Pre-registration for
young people
• Active voter
registration
Registration
Modernization
info@nonprofitvote.org
617.357.VOTE (8683)
www.nonprofitvote.org
Nonprofit VOTE
89 South Street
Suite 203
Boston, MA 02111
Sophie Lehman
sophie@nonprofitvote.org
Julian Johannesen
julian@nonprofitvote.org