The Future Of Mobile: 2014
Henry Blodget
BI Intelligence
Henry Blodget
CEO & Editor-in-Chief, Business Insider
Marcelo Ballvé, Editorial Director
Tony Danova, Research Analyst
Cooper Smith, Research Analyst
John Heggestuen, Research Analyst
BI Intelligence is a new subscription service from Business Insider
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PCs are now small share of connected devices…
Global Internet Connected Device Shipments
1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,400,000,000
Wearables
1,200,000,000
Smart TVs
Tablets
Units
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
Smartphones
400,000,000
200,000,000
Personal Computers
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Gartner, IDC, Strategy Analy cs, Company Filings, BI Intelligence Es mates
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013E
Almost 1 billion smartphones shipped in 2013
Global Smartphone Shipments By Manufacturer
325,000,000
300,000,000
275,000,000
Motorola
BlackBerry
HTC
250,000,000
Nokia Windows Phone
225,000,000
ZTE
Units Shipped
200,000,000
Sony Ericsson
Lenovo
175,000,000
Huawei
LG
150,000,000
125,000,000
100,000,000
Other
Apple
75,000,000
50,000,000
Samsung
25,000,000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
“Phablets” filling in the gap…
Demand For Phablets Is Skyrocke ng In Asia
27
Phablet
24
Millions Of Units Shipped
21
18
Laptop
15
12
Tablet
9
6
3
0
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
Source: Interna onal Data Corpora on August 2013
"Asia" excludes Japan and includes Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
Wearables beginning to take off…
Wearable Device Market Size Forecast
$14,000
$12,000
(Millions)
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: BI Intelligence es mates, ABI Research, IMS, Juniper, *Assumes 42$ average selling price for wearable devices
2016
2017
2018
Mobile is the only media time that is growing
U.S.$Consumer$Media$Consump2on$Share$
50%$
45%$
45%$
44%$
43%$
42%$
40%$
38%$
35%$
30%$
26%$26%$26%$
25%$
25%$
20%$
20%$
20%$
17%$
16%$
15%$
14%$
15%$
12%$
10%$
12%$
9%$
8%$
7%$
7%$
6%$
4%$
5%$
8%$
9%$
7%$
5%$ 5%$
6%$
4%$
0%$
TV$
Online$
Radio$
2009$
Source:(eMarketer,(August(2013(
2010$
Print$
2011$
2012$
Other$
2013$
Mobile$
Each device has a different “prime time”
Share Of Device Page Traffic Over A Day:
Source: comScore, Telefonica, Macquarie Capital (USA), December 2011
Smartphone sales have overtaken “dumb phones”
Global Mobile Phone Sales
400,000
Feature Phones
350,000
300,000
(Thousands)
250,000
200,000
150,000
Smartphones
100,000
50,000
1Q08
Source: Gartner
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
3Q12
2Q13
~225 million tablets were shipped in 2013
Global Tablet Shipments
By Pla orm
100,000,000
90,000,000
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
Windows
50,000,000
40,000,000
Apple
30,000,000
20,000,000
Android
10,000,000
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
But growth is slowing rapidly
Year-Over-Year Growth
Smartphones vs. Tablets, Quarterly
350%
300%
Tablets
250%
200%
150%
Smartphones
100%
50%
0%
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
~60% of tablets run Android
Global Tablet Market Share
By Pla orm
100%
BlackBerry
Windows
Nook
Amazon (Kindle Fire)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Apple
40%
30%
20%
Android
10%
0%
Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Source: BI Intelligence Es mates
~80% of smartphones run Android
Global Smartphone Market Share By Pla orm
100%
90%
80%
Other
Share of Global Unit Sales
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
BlackBerry
Apple iOS
Microso
Android
20%
10%
0%
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Source: IDC, Strategy Analy cs
~60% of all new computing devices run Android
Global Compu ng Pla orm Market Share
100%
90%
80%
70%
Other
BlackBerry
Apple
60%
50%
Windows
40%
30%
20%
Android
10%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013
Source: Gartner, IDC, Stategy Analy cs, Company Filings, BI Intelligence Es mates
Biggest opportunities now China and India
Smartphone Sales In 2014 Will Be Driven By New
Users In Emerging Markets
300
Millions Of Smartphones
250
200
150
100
Top 11 Markets
Other Markets
50
Sales To New Smartphone Users In 2014
Source: Mediacells via The Guardian
Smartphone Upgrades In 2014
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‘Local 7 manufacturers’ in India and China have beaten
Apple in Smartphones, closing in on Samsung
90,000,000
Smartphone Shipments
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Samsung
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Local 7 Manufacturers*
Sources: Various, BI Intelligence. *Local 7 are: Huawei, ZTE, Lenovo, Coolpad, Xiaomi, Karbonn And Micromax
Q1
2013
Apple
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Selected Local Manufacturers from India and China
70,000,000
60,000,000
Shipments
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Xiaomi
Q3
2011
Lenovo
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Huawei
Sources: Canalys, IDC, Strategy Anaytics BI Intelligence, Company Reports
Q2
2012
ZTE
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Coolpad
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Karbonn
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Micromax
Android now as popular with global developers as iOS
Mobile Developers' Main Pla orm
Other
7%
BlackBerry
4%
Android
34%
Windows Phone
5%
HTML5
17%
Source: Developer Economics, July 2013
iOS
33%
iOS vs Android Fragmentation in 2013
Android is more fragmented, but has far
more reach worldwide then iOS
Source: OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Android is leading in World-Wide
Smartphone Sales by a HUGE margin
Source: Wikipedia, http://bit.ly/MobileOSShare
Mobile handset with open source
operating systems*
HW/Organization
Model
SW/OS
Release date
Current State
Nokia
N900
Maemo 5
2009
Discontinued
Nokia
N9
MeeGo 1.2
Harmattan
2011
Discontinued
OpenMoko
Neo (1973 &
FreeRunner)
Openmoko Linux
2007/2008
Discontinued
Golden Delicious
GTA04
QTMoko
2012
Waiting for
interest
Aava Mobile
Dev Phone
MeeGo
2011
Discontinued
Tizen Association
Dev Phone
Tizen
2013
Available
Jolla
Jolla
SailFish
2013
Available
ZTE
Open
Firefox OS
2013
Available
Alcatel
One Touch
Fire
Firefox OS
2013
Available
Source: Wikipedia, http://bit.ly/OSMobilePhones
*Does not include Android Phones / WebOS phones
Thank you
Appendix
Android “fragmentation” improving
Reprinted With Permission From OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Android Fragmentation 2013
Source: OpenSignal, “Android Fragmentation Visualized”
Wearables!
What Is The Next Big Thing In Mobile?
Wearables
22%
Connected Car
7%
Mobile Wallet
17%
Mobile Health
7%
Mobile Adver sing
7%
Distance Learning
4%
Indoor Loca on
2%
Everything As A Service
19%
Connected TV
9%
Other
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Source: Open Mobile Media, July 2013; n = 50+ Top-Level Mobile Execu ves A ending The Open Mobile Summit
20%
25%