Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval Research
Jessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research
Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather Service
Dave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command
June 5, 2014
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An interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air Force and
NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model ensemble under NUOPC.
Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term climate variability timescales.
Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.
A national research agenda that will improve prediction across scales from days to decades.
Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global scale high impact environmental conditions to inform S&T, R&D, and transition to operations.
Towards an multi-model ensemble based air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability
The National Earth System Prediction Capability http://espc.oar.noaa.gov/
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Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & Hurricanes
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Winter Storms, Ice
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Extreme Heat and Cold
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Droughts and Floods
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Climate Adaptation
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Sea Level Rise
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Aviation Transportation
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Food Security
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Air and Water Quality
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Ecosystem Health
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Private Sector and National Security
National Weather Enterprise
Public Safety and Economic Well-being of Nation
Public-Private Partnership
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We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the
The National Earth System Prediction Capability
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This study will identify:
• Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing predictive skill;
• Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast models;
• Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks);
• Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;
• Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic products; and
• Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication, and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.
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Partnerships
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ESPC
NOPP
HFIP
NMME
USGCRP
USCLIVAR
NUOPC
WWRP/WCRP
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Coupled Model Development
Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system
• Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements, cycling setup including DA
•“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and operational job distributions
•“In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report 7320--13-9498 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php
search under author Metzger
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Project Information and Highlights
Scope:
Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 days
1) Expand critical weather forecasting research to operations (R2O)
2) Accelerate development and implementation of improved global weather & ocean prediction models
3) Improve data assimilation techniques
4) Improve software architecture and system engineering
5) Promote hurricane and other high impact forecast models that meet societal requirements
Scheduling
Milestone
Initiate Effort: Charter approved
Planning Teams Organized
Develop Spend Plan and Research
Priorities
Develop Next Generation Global Prediction
System Implementation Plan
Award External Grants
Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability
Interface
Demonstrate Coupled NGGPS
Estimated Benefits:
1) Address growing service demands
2) Increased accuracy and lead time for high impact weather forecasts
3) More reliable probabilistic forecasts
4) Effectively mitigate economic disruption from hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal” weather phenomena
Issues/Risks
Date
02/2014
03/2014
06/2014
09/2014
3/2015
9/2015
9/2015
1. Increased WCOSS Developmental
Computing Capacity Needed
2. Probabilistic operational skill at longer lead times needs to be better quantified and communicated.
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Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop their own global model nor share their forecast fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing.
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Probability of
 Surface wind > 25, 35, 50 kts
 Lower and upper level moderate and severe turbulence
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Icing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mb
Surface viz < 1, 3, 5 nm
Surface temp < 32, > 90
Many Precip products and others
All provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day leads for all fields.
Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in
2014/15.
Probability of Surface Level Reduced Visibility
Probability of Severe
Fighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS)
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Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O
Ensembles
• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)
• Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA),
Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity
• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources
• National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NAEFS/
NUOPC: 5-16 days)
• Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events.
• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resources
• Planned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)
• Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015
• Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)
• National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME: 3-9 months)
• Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model
• Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)
• Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higher resolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).
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Forecast Lead
0-7 Days
Forecast Lead
8-14 Days
Forecast Lead
15-30 Days
Forecast Lead
31
– 90 Days
National Global Prediction Needs
Forecast Lead
3
– 18 Months
Boundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi
Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC prediction
Drought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze Prediction, Storm
Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach Warnings,
Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft
Routing . . .
Annual to Decadal
Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic
Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure
Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem
Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector
Planning . . .
Navy and DoD Capability
TC-COAMPS
Others
NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3
NAVGEM Ensemble
NUOPC/NAEFS Ensemble
DOD Applications of
NOAA managed
Seasonal Ensemble
Prediction
Static
Climatology/Reanalysis based on past environment
“Climatology Products”
HFIP Ensemble
HWRF
GFDL
GFS
NUOPC Ensemble
NOAA Capability
GFS, HYCOM, WW-3
GEFS Ensemble
Multi-Model Ensemble
Climate Fcst System (CFSv2/3)
National Multi-Model Ensemble
(NMME)
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CFS-R, HURDAT, etc.
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(Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)
• When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)
• Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example . --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)
• Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?
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