Operational Global Model
Plans
John Derber
Timeline
• July 25, 2013: Completion of phase 1 WCOSS
transition
• August 20, 2013: GDAS/GFS model/analysis
upgrade #1
• April 2014: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade
#2
• Jan - June 2015: phase 2 WCOSS transition
• Dec. 2015: GDAS/GFS/GEFS model/analysis
upgrade #3
• Beyond 2016
2
Global Upgrade #1 (Aug. 20, 2013)
• Primarily observation usage upgrade
– Include METOP-B, NPP-CrIS, MSG-3 in
data assimilation system
– Possibly include post processor changes
3
Global upgrade #2 (April 2014)
Probable components
• Model
– T1534 Semi-Lagrangian (~13km globally)
– Use of high resolution daily SST and sea ice analysis
– Physics
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Cloud estimate modifications
Radiation modifications
High wind surface drag modification
Convective gravity wave drag
Dissipative heating
Snow accumulation consistent between model and post-processor
– Land Surface
• Removal of soil moisture nudging to climatology
• Modification of vegetation tables
• 20 category high resolution vegetation and high resolution soil type
• Spin up of land state
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Global upgrade #2 (April 2014)
Probable components
• Analysis upgrades
– GPSRO quality control enhancements + METOP-B GPSRO
– Updates to radiance assimilation
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Assimilate SSM/IS UPP LAS (1-7,23-24) data for F-17,18
CRTM v2.1.3
Unified angle/airmass bias correction
Adjustments to ob errors and channel usage
– Satwind data
• GOES – hourly data
• EUMETSAT cloud top WV winds
– EnKF modifications
• T574 semi-Lagrangian ensembles
• Ensemble hurricane relocation
• Stochastic physics for analysis ensembles
• Ensemble
– Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble
– Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64
6
Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015)
Potential components
• Model
– Higher vertical resolution (~128 levels) - higher model top
– Higher horizontal resolution
– Physics
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WAM physics for higher levels
Upgraded radiation (incremental neural net)
Enhanced convective parameterization (for higher resolution)
Upgrades to gravity wave drag
Coupled ocean/atmosphere/ice/land (also 1-d lake model)
Upgraded land and ocean models
Non-hydrostatic
NEMS infrastructure
7
Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015)
Potential components
• Analysis upgrades
– Cloudy radiances for microwave observations
– Cloudy radiances for IR observations
– Additional IASI, AIRS and CrIS channels (esp. moisture channels)
– Improved use of surface land variables
– Station by station conventional data QC and ob. errors
– Bias correction for aircraft observations
– 4d hybrid assimilation
– Enhanced variational Quality Control
– Inclusion of diabatic effects in initialization
• Stochastic physics for ensembles
8
Related global system modifications
• Air quality model and Whole Atmosphere
Model (WAM) – Unified?
– Lower horizontal resolution
– WAM
• 600km top
• High atmosphere physics
– Air Quality
• Inclusion of aerosols and chemistry
• Surface sources (daily estimate)
• Volcano sources
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Beyond 2016
• Model
– Higher vertical and horizontal resolution
– Improved physics
– WAM and AQ applications – impact on deterministic run
– Possible new dynamic core
• Analysis
– Better use of current data
– Use of more data
– Improved use of cloud impacted radiances
• Collaboration with external groups to enhance global prediction
system
• All work constrained by available human and computational
resources and product delivery requirements
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