1 NIGERIA’S REVENUE REALITIES – – – – 2011 Profile Structure Puzzles Clues 2011 PROFILE GDP in 2011 Oil GDP Non-Oil Federally Collected Revenue in 2011 Oil Revenue Non-Oïl Less: Transfers (to VAT Pool, etc) Federally Distributable Pool Statutory Allocations Excess Crude VAT Pool Distribution Federal Government State Government Local Government 13% Derivation N37 trillion N15 trillion GDP N22 trillion N11.116 trillion (Gross), N5.085 trillion (Net) N8,879 (Gross), N4.015 (Net) Revenue N2.237 (Gross) N2.143 (Net) N1.073 trillion N7.565.3 trillion N5.085 N1.856 trillion N623.5 billion N7.565.3 trillion N3.334 trillion N1.970 trillion N1.497 trillion N763 billion STRUCTURE Oil Revenue (Gross) N8.879 trillion Crude Oil / Gas Exports PPT and Royalties etc. Domestic Crude Oil Sales Other Oil Revenue Less: Deductions 3/ N2.287 trillion N3.976.30 trillion N2.608.80 trillion N6.0 Oil Revenue (Net) N4.015 trillion Non- Oil Revenue N2,237 trillion • • • • 4,863.60N Corporate Tax Customs & Excise Duties Value-Added Tax (VAT) FG Independent Revenue Education Tax Custom Levies Nat. Inf. Tech Dev. Fund (NITDF) Less: Deductions 3/ N700 billion N438.3 billion N649.5 billion N182.5 billion N101.7 billion N156.8 billion N8.6 billion Non- Oil Revenue (Net) 2.143 trillion N94.9 billion STRUCTURE Oil Revenue (Gross) N8.879 trillion Crude Oil / Gas Exports PPT and Royalties etc. Domestic Crude Oil Sales Other Oil Revenue Less: Deductions 3/ N2.287 trillion N3.976.30 trillion N2.608.80 trillion N6.0 Oil Revenue (Net) N4.015 trillion Non- Oil Revenue N2,237 trillion • • • • 4,863.60N Corporate Tax Customs & Excise Duties Value-Added Tax (VAT) FG Independent Revenue Education Tax Custom Levies Nat. Inf. Tech Dev. Fund (NITDF) Less: Deductions 3/ N700 billion N438.3 billion N649.5 billion N182.5 billion N101.7 billion N156.8 billion N8.6 billion Non- Oil Revenue (Net) 2.143 trillion N94.9 billion Gross Revenue in 2011 GDP in 2011 Oil, 15,275,681.84 , 41% Non-Oil, 22,027,723.50 , 59% Non- Oil, 2,237.90, 20% Oil, 8,879.0, 80% REGIONAL SHARES OF GDP REGIONAL REVENUES South East, 1,137,335.86, North3% East, 1,224,865.41, 3% South South, 15,917,263.11, 43% North West, 7,326,568.53, 20% South-South, 1,148 , 34% Southeast, 322 , 9% North Central, 4,919,873.54, 13% Southwest, 616 , 18% South West, 6,777,498.89, 18% Northwest, 485 , 14% Northeast, 361 , 11% NorthCentral, 475 , 14% FG Total Revenue Total Expenditure o Recurrent Expenditure Personel Overhead Pensions Debt Charges o Current Balance o Capital Expenditure Overall Overall Balance States LGs Federation 3,553.50 3,410.10 1,603.80 8,567.40 4,712.10 3,542.00 1,601.20 9,855.30 3,314.50 2,055.80 1,179.40 6,549.70 1,722.40 680.2 748.1 3,150.70 673.3 484.9 231.7 1,389.90 131.5 85.1 - 216.60 527.2 232.2 - 759.40 239.00 1,354.30 424.40 2,017.70 918.5 1,375.20 421.8 2,715.50 -1,158.60 -131.90 2.60 -1,287.90 GROSS STATE PRODUCT Rivers Lagos Akwa Ibom Bayelsa Delta Niger Benue Kano Katsina FCT Abuja Sokoto Zamfara Ondo Jigawa Kaduna Borno Nasarawa Cross River Kebbi Imo Oyo Abia Edo Enugu Ogun Gombe Ekiti Kwara Bauchi Adamawa Anambra Yobe Plateau Osun Kogi Ebonyi Taraba 2,459,371 2,405,466 1,397,521 1,353,636 1,348,869 1,279,397 1,261,059 1,233,553 1,145,162 1,095,157 981,455 948,496 517,042 501,554 447,186 389,636 384,012 320,686 287,372 248,417 216,426 186,046 178,264 165,740 163,898 159,865 153,470 152,081 137,467 134,803 130,543 107,402 97,445 78,757 0 4,879,327 3,770,883 2,000,000 4,000,000 N’ millions 6,585,940 6,000,000 TOTAL REVENUE 2011 (N'BILLIONS) Rivers Lagos Akwa Ibom Delta Bayelsa FCT Abuja Kano Abia Ondo Edo Oyo Ogun Kaduna Anambra Kogi Imo Benue Jigawa Katsina Bauchi Gombe Plateau Borno Niger Cross River Sokoto Adamawa Zamfara Kwara Osun Taraba Kebbi Enugu Yobe Nasarawa Ekiti 8,000,000 Ebonyi 314.7 267.9 256.2 235.7 196.9 103.8 97.0 84.1 83.2 82.3 78.7 77.4 77.0 72.4 68.2 67.6 67.3 66.5 66.4 64.4 64.1 63.1 62.7 62.6 62.5 61.7 61.7 61.1 60.4 60.1 55.5 55.1 53.1 52.2 49.2 48.2 45.2 - 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 About EA We provide our clients with facts on the trends and outlook of risks and opportunities in the Nigerian economy, given the realities of the international economic situation, and the economic policy directions of the government. Our products and services currently include: Economic Outlook monthly summaries of the main drivers of Nigerian economic outlook. Data & Forecasts monthly forecasts on over 200 Nigerian economic and financial variables. Economic Model for analyzing impacts of global, national and industry shocks in-house. Executive Briefing provides decision-makers discussions of the drivers of the economic outlook. Management Training provides detailed training on selected topics on the Nigerian economy. Retainer Services provide regular access to EA staff to discuss new ideas as they emerge. Economic Associates, 16 Amodu Ojikutu Street, P.O. Box 70909, Victoria Island, Lagos, Nigeria. Tel: 234 1 461 0800-5; e-mail info@econassociates.com; home page http://www.econassociates.com 10