SubSaharan Africa and
Southeast Asia
in the American Age
• A Fast Review
• China After the Peak
• Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia
Peter Zeihan
Association of American Manufacturers
November 5
Transport and the United States
400
2,000
4,000
60,000
Evolving Demography
The First Chinese Problem: Unity
Northern consolidation
difficult; Yellow River
unnavigable
Beijing is the
political/military capital
Yangtze is navigable
Shanghai is the
economic capital
South has good ports,
but (sub)tropical
Greatly retards
northern control
Encourages foreign
presence
The Second Chinese Problem: The Limits of Bribery
• Country requires social
binding agent
Private capital pooled,
then funneled at submarket rates
Maximize employment
by large firm size,
market share and
throughput at the cost of
debt and profitability
Subsidizes inputs and
outputs
The Third Chinese Problem: Nationwide Subprime
?
Three Thoughts on China
Development
limitations
• Inland China is the
only inland Asia
Inflation/Deflation
• International credit up
• Commodities down
• Manufactured goods
up
Timing Matters
• Now not so bad
• 2015-2019:
European
consumption
collapses and
developed world
demographics flip
The China Wars
The African
Geography
• Land of
plateaus
• Extremely
limited infra
• Only Chinese
demand
justifies most
development
• Two
(competing)
exceptions
South Africa
v Angola
• Mining and
apartheid
infrastructure
• 25 years later…
• The Angolan
challenge
– Oil, Benguela
and … Ninjas
Ninja Assistance
to the other
Congo
Militant
Proxies to
Zaire/Congo
Bombed
Zambia
Ninja
Assistance to
Zimbabwe
Coup
In Namibia
The Australian Geography
• Problematic
geography
• Growth
markets likely
to tank…
• …but only
non-US
geography
that can
implement
shale quickly
• And close to…
The Southeast Asian Geography
• China debris
(economic and
strategic)
• Powerful growth
base effect
• Strong U.S.
alignments
• All-urban polities
• Isolated population/
industrial hubs
Two Parting Thoughts
The Biggest Deltas
• Indonesia
– 200+ million pop,
half in one place
– Singapore money,
Malaysia middlemanufacturing
• Myanmar
– Trying to escape
China
– Ayeyarwady is
navigable!
The New Trade Triangle
• US consumption
• Oz resources
• SEAsian
manufacturing
National Stability: 2020-2040
The Accidental Superpower
Coming September 2014
The South Asian Geography
Ganges basin is
radically fertile
Rivers unnavigable
(Sub)tropical
throughout
Divorced from Asia
Extremely low
capital per capita
Crushing,
endemic,
inescapable
poverty