Probation Trends
Dr. Melissa Alexander
Chief USPO, MD/NC
Working Smarter, not Harder
• Understanding individual cases better,
not treating everyone the same
• Dedicate resources to the highest risk
clients
• Utilize evidence-based practices to
provide the most effective interventions
Risk Assessment
• Actuarial tools used to help predict
success/failure
• PTRA (pretrial) and PCRA (postconviction)
• No current AO-sanctioned tool for
presentence
Why is risk important?
• Will make a difference in
release/detention recommendation
• Could impact sentencing
• Opportunity for you to advocate for your client
• Makes a difference in supervision
strategies and responses to violations
• Could impact arguments in revocation
proceedings
Pretrial Risk Assessment
(PTRA)
• Administered by the probation officer, used along
with other information to make recommendation for
release/detention
• 11 scored and 9 unscored items
• Criminal History
• “Other”
Release Rates
by PTRA Category
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
National
MDNC
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Category Category Category Category Category
1
2
3
4
5
Why Risk Matters
• 225 pretrial defendants supervised over
the past year
• Only 13 had violations of any kind (6%)
• 5 revoked
• 4 of the 5 were in the highest risk
categories (Category 4 or 5)
For more info on PTRA…
• See Sept. 2011 and Sept. 2012 issues of
Federal Probation journal
• http://www.uscourts.gov/viewer.aspx?d
oc=/uscourts/FederalCourts/PPS/Fedpr
ob/2011-09/index.html
• http://www.uscourts.gov/viewer.aspx?d
oc=/uscourts/FederalCourts/PPS/Fedpr
ob/2012-09/index.html
How you can help
• Provide as much information as
possible upfront
• Short turnaround time makes it difficult to fully
investigate everything
• Understand the 3rd party custodian
responsibilities, and ensure they do too
• Several are now “backing out” as they don’t
realize what they’ve signed up for
Presentence
• No risk assessment formally conducted
during the investigation at this time
• Many dynamic risk factors are included
in the report
• Criminal history
 Age at first arrest, # of arrests, varied offending
• Part C
 Substance abuse, education/employment, social
networks
3553(a)
Factors to be Considered
(1) the nature and circumstances of the offense
and the history and characteristics of the
defendant;
(2) the need for the sentence imposed—
(C) to protect the public from further crimes of the
defendant; and
(D) to provide the defendant with needed educational or
vocational training, medical care, or other correctional
treatment in the most effective manner;
Reasons for Departure
(partial list)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Criminal History Inadequacy
Age
Education and Vocational Skills
Mental and Emotional Condition
Physical Condition
Employment Record
Family Ties and Responsibilities
Military Record, Charitable Service,
Good Works
Aggravating or Mitigating Circumstances
• Why might these matter?
Dynamic Risk Factors
• Factors an individual may demonstrate
that can change (for better or worse)
• Changes in turn directly impact
likelihood of recidivism
• If you can demonstrate potential
change, better argument for
“appropriate” sentence
Example:
Education/Vocational Skills
• Those with no diploma or ONLY a GED
have higher risk to recidivate
• Those with GED plus vocational
certificate, or some college, have lower
risk (records MUST be verified)
• What is the client doing/could do that
might address this issue that could
reduce risk?
Example:
Substance Use
• Recent use higher risk than history (i.e.
more than 12 months old)
• Has it caused problems in work, family
life (if not, less likely it’s a “problem”)
• If current use that is problematic, are
they in treatment or willing to go
Example: Social Networks &
Cognitions
• Social Networks
• Married lower risk than single
• More pro-social support the better
• Fewer antisocial and/or willing to cut ties with
antisocial peers
• Any pro-social recreational activities?
• Cognitions
• Overall antisocial thinking/attitudes?
• Motivated to change?
Static Factors
• Those that can’t change
• Biggest is criminal history
• However, lack of certain characteristics could
be argued as lower risk
• Example: Lower risk if fewer arrests (less than
8), no violent, only 1 offense type (always
drugs), successfully completed supervision
previously
How you can help
• Help provide verified records (better for
risk assessment and for BOP
programming)
• Help get interviews done ASAP
• More time to gather collateral info.
Post-conviction Risk
Assessment (PCRA)
• Administered by officer at the
beginning of supervision
• Five major areas
•
•
•
•
•
Criminal History
Education/Employment
Substance Abuse
Social Networks
Cognitions
• Used to determine intervention
strategies
PCRA Case Distribution
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
National
MDNC
What Difference does it make?
2013 Revocation Rates
Prior to EBP (2010), overall National avg. = 28.8%; MD/NC = 32.4%
80.0%
70.0%
Percent Cases Revoked
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
National Avg
MD/NC
Overall
28.7%
23.0%
High Risk
72.1%
59.1%
Moderate Risk
55.4%
45.9%
Low/Moderate Risk
24.4%
11.0%
Low Risk
4.8%
1.3%
For more info on PCRA….
• See US Courts website for videos and a
downloadable report
• http://www.uscourts.gov/FederalCourts
/ProbationPretrialServices/Supervision/
PCRA.aspx
What Happens during
Supervision?
• Focus on supervision by risk
• i.e. High risk seen at least twice per month
• Focus on the individual’s dynamic risk
factors
• Use of STARR techniques
• Result: Over 30% decrease in
revocations over the past 4 years!
• 12 month revocation rate in 2010 was 31%
• Current 12 month rate is 21%
STARR Skills
• Active Listening
• Role Clarification
• Effective
Reinforcement
• Effective
Disapproval
• Effective Use of
Authority
• Effective
Punishment
• Teaching the
Cognitive Model
• Applying the
Cognitive Model
• Reviewing the
Cognitive Model
• Problem Solving
Impact of Starr
It has helped me a whole lot because not only, you know supervising somebody on
probation yeah that’s their job but by them actually wanting to know how I’m feeling, as
far as different situations, let’s me know that ok they’re not just doing their job, they
showing that they care, they showing that they want to see me to do better, so it has
helped me to think differently, and react to a lot of different things in more positive ways,
as far as a lot of the questions, and I think it’s called cognitive thinking….that is very
helpful because it helps you look at the ins and outs before you react to something.
For one I was always the type of person to where I would do something and think about,
you know, the consequences of it later….let’s say someone makes me mad and I want to
punch this person in the face, well as soon as I feel that I want to punch this person in
the face I go on and punch him in the face, that’s how I used to do, versus now the
thought comes up I want to punch him in the face but then I stop and think ok now if I
punch this person in the face it can lead to us fightin’, police comin’, or him shootin’ me
or us shootin’ at each other and what am I gonna get from all this a charge, locked up,
hurt, possibly dead, so then I just sit and think ok now if I don’t hit him in the face and I
just go on about my business then, I’ll be ok ain’t gotta worry about the police, I ain’t
gotta worry about gettin’ shot, ain’t gotta worry about him trying to come back later on
with a few of his friends so basically I go with the positive side, so it actually help me to
stop, think, then react.
What Can We Do
to Help You?
• Our office is here to provide the best
service to the court and the community
• Justice best served when we all work
together
• Focus on continued quality
improvement in services and outcomes
• Contact me directly at any time!