The Future of Technology
Ted Demopoulos
ICE® Technology Conference 2007
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
We are a lot further
along than we think
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
We’ll Look At:
•Where we are today
•Two major issues today -- and very
much into the future
•Where we are going
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Technology Pervades Society
(more deeply than we think)
• My “special” friend Ralphie, email junkie
• My 102 year old father (or so he claims)
just got online
• People check their email when they get up
at night to go to the bathroom
• When my plane landed in Edmonton, what
did “everyone” immediately do?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Technology Pervades our World
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Spaceship Demopoulos
– Sonar
– GPS/Maps/Gives you directions out loud
– DVD Player
– Microprocessor in keys – anti-theft
– Rearview camera
– etc.
The Six Million Dollar Van?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Let’s Take a Step Back:
Technology – the basic idea:
•Technological advances allow the production of more
output from existing resources
-more efficient ways of producing existing output
-production of new (or substantially improved) items
• We gain both from more output/cheaper prices and
from improved items and innovations
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
“Killer Applications” of Technology
• Email
• Online Shopping and Retailing
• Information Access
• Cell Phones
Many more, e.g. medical and industrial
examples quickly come to mind
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
“Less than Killer Applications” of
Technology
-Non disruptive applications of technology
-Small incremental improvements to our lives
• DVD players, ball point pens, antilock
brakes, central heat, air conditioning, etc.
Their net sum is extremely significant
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
We think Technology is pretty neat
. . . ape-descended life forms
are so amazingly primitive that
they still think digital watches
are a pretty neat idea...
-Douglas Adams, The Hitchhiker's
Guide to the Galaxy
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
This Leads To Problem #1
• “Technology for Technology’s Sake”
- unnecessary complexity
– Examples:
• Complexity in MS Word
• The need to reboot anything
• Microprocessors in car keys
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Unnecessary Unreliability
• Unnecessary complexity leads to
unnecessary unreliability
• Complexity increases attack surface
• Simply more that can go wrong!
• Often no backup plans
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Ted’s Backup Plan for This Trip
Do most people or organizations have workable backup
plans for when technology fails?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
My Not Particularly Smart House
Sometimes has a mind of it’s own
Calls the police
Calls the fire department
What could a “Smart House” do?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
SIMPLE is Good
“Make everything as simple as possible”
-Albert Einstein
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
The Full Quote
“Make everything as simple as
possible, but not simpler”
-Albert Einstein
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Reliability?
• Technology has been evolving so rapidly,
the emphasis has been on functionality, not
reliability
• This will (need) to change!
• If Microsoft had focused more on reliability,
would Windows own the desktop?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Problem #2
Too Much Information
• The “Information Overload” Age
• Endless interruptions: cellphones, IM,
pagers, email
• More productive or less so?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Privacy
• Distant past – villages – little privacy. Reasonable
in context
• Recent past – cities/industrial age. Reasonable
privacy
• Today – who has your data? Is it yours? Is it
correct?
• I fear Big Brothers – e.g. Google, Microsoft,
Verizon, Marketing Agencies, everyone who
stores personal data
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Beware Big Brother MSN Virtual Earth?
Does your insurance company know about the
trampoline Ted? Why is Bob’s car there alone?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Ted’s Hobbies
• You got building permits for those
antennas Ted?
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
As told to a new client
• I see Joe Schmoe just spent a week with
your organization. He’s very positive on the
experience. . . . . .
He’s sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting to
go home and his flight is delayed . . . .
• From the Technorati.com search engine, a
multi page posting on a blog
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Where We Are Going
1) Integration of technology into our world
2) Reliability – will be assumed – in the future
3) Ease of use – enormous work on the
Human-Computer interface
4) Technology only where it makes sense
5) Health Care/Life Extension/Alleged
Immortality (at least for the very rich!)
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Two Final Thoughts
The Small Non-Disruptive “Less Than
Killer Applications” of Technology add
up to a lot
(Imagine a small audio recorder that records,
and indexes, your whole life – so you don’t
forget anything)
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
There Is One Future
The Future of Technology is
The Future
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007
Thank You
Ted Demopoulos, [email protected]
ICE® Technology Conference Ted Demopoulos, [email protected] © 2007