Turkey’s Neighbourhood
Policy:
Developing a World Complex
Interdependence?
K. Kaan Renda
Phd Candidate
European Studies
King’s College London
kadri.renda@kcl.ac.uk
www.cesran.org
Introduction






Realism in IR
Complex interdependence
General characteristics of Turkish Foreign policy
Recent developments and activism
Concluding remarks
Q&A
2
Realist theory






States as unitary and dominant actors
Survival and security are the main objectives
Hierarchy of issues: High politics v. Low politics
Power = Material capabilities = Military force
National interests are pre-given
Conflict and competition persistent
3
4
Complex Interdependence

Basic Features:
 Multiple
Channels
 Absence of hierarchy among issues
 Secondary role of military force
5
Complex Interdependence
(continued):

Multiple Channels:
 Transgovernmental
relations
 Transnational relations
 Support for Multilateralism
6
Complex Interdependence
(continued):

Absence of Hierarchy among Issues
 Extensive
foreign agendas
 Security issue is relegated
 Rise of different domestic groups
 National interests less clearly defined
 Cooperation possible and becomes a norm
7
Complex Interdependence
(continued):

Secondary role of Military Force:
 Change
in threat perceptions
 Diplomacy and other civilian instruments
praised
 Military power is the last resort
8
Complex Interdependence
(continued):

Types of Leadership and Role:
 Hegemonic
leadership: Dominant role
 Unilateral leadership: unilateral policies and
bilateral relations
 Multiple leadership: multilateral policies,
mediator and facilitator role, displaying a good
example
9
Complex Interdependence
(continued):
Sensitivity: the speed and magnitude with
which a change in one country is felt in
another country.
 Vulnerability: the relative availability and
costliness of alternative policy frameworks,
when it becomes necessary to adapt to
external changes.

10
Turkish Foreign Policy
General characteristics of TFP in 1990s:
 Geostrategic concerns
 Threat perceptions
 Military strategy
 Domestic politics
11
Geostrategic concerns:



Dominated by realpolitik and geopolitical
concerns: Cold war mentality
Power politics: strong army and readiness to use
of force
Searching for a new role
12
Threat perceptions:

Threats are everywhere:
 Domestic and international threats
 National unity and integrity (milli birlik ve beraberlik)
 Terrorism
 Hostile neighbours
 Surrounded



by threats
Suspicion and mistrust
Security was the main concern
Security-consumer
13
Military strategy:



Military strategy focused on:
 Containment of hostile neighbours through
alliances and threat of use of force
 Fighting against terrorism
Strong army and strong state was vital for survival
Highly cautious
14
Domestic politics:




State-centric
National Unity and integrity (milli birlik ve
beraberlik)
Coalition governments
Military’s role in foreign policymaking
15
Recent Developments
Foreign Policymaking
 Economic activism
 Diplomatic activism

16
Foreign policymaking
Civilianization:
 Democratization:
 Desecuritization:

17
Economic activism







Creating a circle of business partners
Web of bilateral agreements
More pragmatic and economy oriented
Rise of trading state after the twin economic
crisis in 2000 and 2001: need for new markets
Role of stable and consolidated economy
Energy hub
Possibility of economic regime and economic
integration
18
Trade statistics (1)
Source: IMF
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Partner
country
Flow
Armenia
Exports
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Imports
0
0
0
0
0
0
391k
40k
56k
1.489
Exports
248k
230k
225k
231k
315k
403k
528k
695k
1.046
1.667
Imports
440k
956k
780k
646k
122k
135k
272k
340k
329k
928k
Exports
233k
252k
299k
380k
621k
892k
1.179
1.567
2.060
2.151
Imports
295k
465k
393k
508k
689k
955k
1.190
1.661
1.949
1.840
Exports
114k
131k
144k
103k
155k
199k
271k
407k
645k
997k
Imports
932k
155k
127k
137k
273k
302k
302k
344k
289k
525k
Exports
406k
437k
476k
590k
920k
1.166
1.126
1.602
2.262
2.429
Imports
287k
430k
266k
312k
427k
592k
726k
1.044
950k
1.150
Exports
157k
235k
360k
333k
533k
810k
912k
1.066
1.386
2.029
Imports
635k
815k
839k
920k
1.860
1.961
3.469
5.626
6.613
8.199
Exports
0
0
0
0
829k
1.815
2.748
2.589
2.811
3.916
Imports
0
0
0
0
112k
467k
458k
375k
644k
1.320
Exports
232k
184k
281k
266k
410k
393k
551k
609k
797k
1.115
Imports
307k
545k
463k
506k
413k
357k
272k
187k
376k
639k
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Georgia
Greece
Iran
Iraq
Syria
19
Trade statistics (2)
Source: IMF
Partner
count
ry
Flow
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Russian
Exports
588k
643k
924k
1.172
1.367
1.858
2.377
3.237
4.727
6.483
Imports
2.374
3.886
3.435
3.891
5.451
9.027
12.869
17.806
23.506
31.364
Exports
585k
650k
805k
861k
1.083
1.309
1.466
1.529
1.658
1.935
Imports
298k
505k
529k
544k
459k
714k
803k
782k
1.081
1.447
Exports
15.420
15.664
17.545
20.416
27.397
36.524
41.365
47.930
60.406
63.394
Imports
22.529
28.526
19.823
25.688
35.140
48.077
52.629
59.338
68.589
74.803
Exports
1.049
901k
1.031
1.203
1.527
2.150
2.558
3.365
4.429
6.558
Imports
1.075
1.787
1.879
1.823
2.075
3.012
3.786
4.714
5.702
6.490
Exports
2.225
2.031
2.575
2.735
4.511
6.797
8.986
9.881
13.186
23.330
Imports
2.299
3.543
3.221
3.310
4.861
6.194
8.836
11.790
12.017
16.003
Israel
EU
AFRICA
Middle East
20
Diplomatic activism
Dynamic and assertive diplomacy
 Soft power
 From staunch alliances to flexible alliances
 Mediator role, problem-solver, pivotal role
in regional politics
 More cooperative and constructive
 Normalisation of relations with neighbours

21
Concluding remarks




Expanding the Turkish sphere of influence
From “tolerating and deterring neighbours” to “good neighbourly
relations”
Analytical problems of complex interdependence model
 Lack of emphasis on the effects of identity and culture
 Too much economy-oriented
Practical problems of new activism in Turkish foreign policy
 Problems of zero problem with neighbours policy
 Economical and institutional capacity
 Over-stretching: Breaking the bow
 Over-confidence and declining tolerance to opposition
 Seen rhetorical and opportunitist: Lack of concrete results
 Domestic problems constrain Turkish role in the region
22
Selected Bibliography:

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Aydin, M. (1999). "Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy: Historical Framework and Traditional
Inputs", Middle Eastern Studies 35(4): 152-186.
Aydin, M. (2000). "Determinants of Turkish Foreign Policy: Changing Patterns and Conjunctures
During the Cold War", Middle Eastern Studies 36(1): 103-139.
Aydin, M. (2003b). "Securitization of History and Geography: Understanding of Security in
Turkey", Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 3(2): 163-184.
Bilgin, P. (2005). "Turkey's Changing Security Discourses: The Challenge of Globalisation",
European Journal of Political Research 44(1): 175-201.
Karaosmanoglu, A. L. (2000). "The Evolution of the National Security Culture and the Military in
Turkey", Journal of International Affairs 54(1): 199-216.
Keohane, Robert O. and Nye, Joseph S.(1989). Power and Interdependence, USA: Harper Collins
Publishers, 2. Edition.
Kirisci, K. (2006). Turkey's Foreign Policy in Turbulent Times. Chaillot Paper. Paris: Institute for
Security Studies.
Oguzlu, H. T. (2004a). "The Impact of 'Democratization in the Context of the EU Accession
Process' on Turkish Foreign Policy ", Mediterranean Politics 9(1): 94-113.
Oguzlu, H. T. (2007). "Soft Power in Turkish Foreign Policy", Australian Journal of International
Affairs 61(1): 81-97.
Robins, P. (2007). "Turkish Foreign Policy since 2002: Between a 'Post-Islamist' Government and
a Kemalist State", International Affairs 83(2): 289-304.
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Thank you very much!
kadri.renda@kcl.ac.uk
www.cesran.org
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