Maria Hamdouchi & De’Ahna Johnson
Research Question
As Middle Eastern and Northern African countries
experienced the Arab Spring, how did the United States
and its respective stakes in the region affect their
outcomes?
The Middle East Since 1970
• The Modern Middle East
• Regime Change Revolution War
• We Are GLOBAL
• Interdependent Economies
• Speculation and Protection
• Arab Spring 101
The Debate
• Some Scholars would Argue…
•
Economic Stability, Corruption, Will of the People
•
Among other factors
• The Argument
• Countries with Stakes
• What was the main factor that influenced the outcomes of the Arab
Spring?
Hypothesis
Because of its stakes in the Middle East and North Africa,
the United States influenced the outcomes of certain Arab
Springs, favoring the successes of certain countries and the
preservation of the status quo in others.
Influence on
Arab Spring
Outcome
Influence on
Arab Spring
Outcome
Western Interests for Non Oil Countries
Western Interests for Oil Countries
Selection Problems
Arab Spring Success
Arab Spring Failure
Oil Countries
Quadrant 1
Libya
Quadrant 2
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia
Non-Oil Countries
Quadrant 3
Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen
Quadrant 4
Jordan, Morocco, Syria
Arab Countries and Arab Spring
Outcome
Country
Arab Spring
Success
Algeria
0
0
Bahrain*
1
0
Egypt
1
1
Iraq
0
0
Jordan
1
0
Kuwait*
0
0
Lebanon
0
0
Libya
1
1
Morocco
1
0
Oman*
0
0
Qatar*
0
0
Saudi Arabia*
1
0
Syria
1
0
Tunisia
1
1
United Arab Emirates*
0
0
Yemen
1
1
*Denotes GCC Member
Selection Case Studies
• Presence of U.S. naval Base
• Bahrain’s GCC Status
• Why did we choose these countries?
•
Clearly illustrates the relationship between western interests and arab spring
outcomes.
Egypt
Syria
Libya
Bahrain
Methodology
Trade as a Percentage of GDP
Per Capita GDP
Energy Production
Net Oil Trade with the United States
Take-Away Points
Western Influence
Economic Development
Arab Spring
We expect to find a positive correlation
Growth vs. Western Influence
Military Intervention
Outcome of Arab Spring Relational Western Interests