RESEARCH METHODS:
LEANRING FROM A CHOSEN
RESEARCH PAPER
RESEARCH PAPER: ‘EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF
CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BASED ON RISK ANALYSIS’
COURSE: RESEACH METHODS
INSTRUCTOR: DR. SHOAIB FAROOQ
DEPTT.: LSPS -UOL, MAIN CAMPUS
PRESENTER PROFILE
NAME:
OZAIR ALI KHAN
REG NO.
MSPM02193015
EDUCATION:
BACHELORS IN CIVIL
ENGINEERING (UET)
PROFESSION:
CIVIL ENGINEER
EXPERIENCE:
5+ YEARS
CURRENT JOB TITLE: ASSISTANT ENGINEER
PROJECTS
CURRENT ORG.:
IDAP
PRESENTATION
CONTENT
Paper
Specifics
Objectives
of Report
Research
Spiral
Problem
Statement
Literature
Review
Research
Purpose
Data
Collection
Data
Analysis
Data
Interpretation
Conclusion
PAPER SPECIFICS
TITLE
EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF CONSTRUCTION
PROJECTS BASED ON RISK ANALYSIS
AUTHOR -1
Usama H. Issa
ORIGIN
Saudi-Arabia &
Egypt
AUTHOR-2
Salah A.A.
Mosaad
ORIGIN
Saudi-Arabia &
Egypt
AUTHOR-3
M. Salah Hassan
ORIGIN
Egypt
KEY WORDS
Risk analysis, Decisions, Contractor, AHP, Construction
projects, HVAC and Fuzzy.
PAPER SPECIFICS (CONTD…)
RESEARCH
METHOD
QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITIVE
RESEARCH
ISSTRUMENT
INTERVIEWS, FOCUS GROUPS & Case Study
ANALYSIS
FUZZY MODEL AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
OUTCOME
NEW STRATEGY FOR CONTRACTORS
OBJECTIVES OF
THE REPORT
•
•
•
•
•
To Apply the learning of the
subject/course.
To develop understanding related to
research work.
To identify different research
techniques/methods/approaches
adopted by the researcher(s).
To identify and document the
methodology and analysis employed
by the author
To understand the outcomes of the
study
RESEARCH SPIRAL
Identify the
Research Problem
Evaluate Data
and
Write Report
Analyze and
Interpret
Data
Review the
Literature
Collect Data
Specify a
Research
Purpose
IDENTIFICATION
OF PROBLEM
STATEMENT
PROBLEM STATEMENT
“The construction industry is very complex and there
are various parties involved in this industry. From
the contractor’s point of view, it is not easy to judge
either they should go for bidding on the specific
project or not. A number of factors need to be
considered. Sometimes, the contractor got the
project but that project results in disadvantages to
the company instead of giving it profits.”
LITERATURE
REVIEW
(HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE)
LITERATURE REVIEW
Following topics are covered in literature
review:
•
•
•
Decision making in construction industry.
Evaluation and selection of construction
project elements
Using risk analysis in construction
problem evaluation
LITERATURE REVIEW (CONTD.)
DECISION MAKING IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
Sr. No.
Researcher (s)
Type/Model
/Approach
1
Amer and Attia,
2009
Factors Identification
2
Issa UH, Miky YH,
Abdel-Malak FF,
2019
Multicriteria
decision-making
model
3
Sandanayake et
al, 2019
Evaluation tool
4
Shevchenko et
al., 2019
Decision-making
approach
Description
37 criteria were identified in order to select and to
make decisions based on roof stacking methods.
A software based multicriteria decision-making
model was developed and introduced for helping
in decision making related to selection of the
most suitable substitute and employed many
types of data considering the customers’
requirements and preferences.
Construction emission evaluation tool was
presented in order to allow designers and
contractors to make estimation and comparison
for emissions from major sources of emission in
building construction.
Decision-making approach was presented on the
basis of qualitative estimates obtained by
investigating the risks posed, management
methods used, and application of the proposed
methods for assessing the contractor’s risk in
construction companies
LITERATURE REVIEW (CONTD.)
DECISION MAKING IN CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
Sr. No.
Researcher (s)
5
Sonmez and
Sözgen, 2017
6
Lee et al., 2019
7
Rasiulis et al.,
2015
Type/Model
/Approach
Description
For the purpose of making decision related to
Support vector
bid/no-bid, support vector machines and
machines and
backward elimination regression were employed,
backward elimination for offshore oil and gas platform fabrication
regression
projects in order to achieve a parsimonious
support vector machine classifier.
Presentation and analysis of an alternative
dispute resolution (ADR) selection carried out
Alternative Dispute based on utilization. They reclassified ADR
Resolution (ADR)
selection and used it with reference to a
framework based on the theory of planned
behavior.
New algorithm was presented for the evaluation
of modernization decisions for buildings, enabling
decision makers for selection of best performing
alternatives related to energy consumption, cost
Algorithm
of installment, and other relevant criteria. The
presented decision algorithm comprises a method
for the integrated significance determination of
efficiency indicators.
LITERATURE REVIEW (CONTD.)
EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF CONSTRUCTION
PROJECT ELEMENTS
Sr. No.
Researcher (s)
Type/Model
/Approach
1
Hatefi and
Tamošaitienė,
2019
DEMATEL-fuzzy ANP
model
2
Ebrahimnejad et
al, 2012
A fuzzy VIKOR
method
3
Badov, 2015
Algorithm
Description
Proposed an integrated model for
construction project evaluation, that is, the
DEMATEL-fuzzy ANP model. The model
determined the interrelationships and
interdependencies among risk factors.
A new two-phase group decision making
approach was proposed in order to perform
project selection by using multiple criteria to
solve a construction project problem. A fuzzy
VIKOR method was extended to rank potential
projects based on their overall performance.
Described an algorithm for contractor selection.
The algorithm was based on ordering and fuzzy
set theories. The selection was conducted basing
on several criteria such as reputation, technical
capabilities, financial situation, and organizational
skills.
LITERATURE REVIEW (CONTD.)
EVALUATION AND SELECTION OF CONSTRUCTION
PROJECT ELEMENTS
Sr. No.
4
5
6
Researcher (s)
Edrogan et al.,
2017
AbelEl-khalek et
al, 2017
Yin et al., 2017
Type/Model
/Approach
Multi-criteria Model
Statistical Analysis
Description
Nine-stage model using multicriteria methods for
solving decision-making problems in construction,
such as selecting the best contractor.
Identified, analyzed, and prioritized the most
important criteria affecting a subcontractor’s
selection process using statistical analysis.
A method to evaluate a project manager’s
competency was proposed by based on
Multi-Criteria Method
multiple criteria with an interactive relationship.
LITERATURE REVIEW (CONTD.)
USING RISK ANALYSIS IN CONSTRUCTION PROBLEM
EVALUATION
Sr. No.
1
2
3
Researcher (s)
Type/Model
/Approach
Sanni-Anibire et
al., 2020
Approach
Li and Wang,
2019
Fuzzy analytic
network process &
Interpretive
Structural Modeling
Chen et al., 2019
Engineering case
analysis and
complex network
theory
Description
Developed a risk assessment approach for
increasing safety performance and establishing
risk scores and weights of various accidents occur
in construction projects.
Proposed a risk assessment method to fill the gap
of understanding risk impact, to address vital
interrelationships and interdependencies. Two
methodologies were engaged: fuzzy analytic
network process and interpretive structural
modeling.
Proposed a methodology to combine engineering
case analysis and complex network theory.
Several risk paths were investigated;
subsequently, a cost overrun risk propagation
network was established and the statistical
properties were explored
RESEACH
PUPROSE
RESEACH OBJECTIVES
•
To solve the problems faced by the
Contractors in the bidding process.
•
Selection of the best strategy through
engaging analytical tools and models.
•
Purposing of the new strategy best suiting
the Contractors.
•
Documentation and reporting of the results
RESEACH METHDOLOGY
•
Identification of the criteria impacting the execution of the available construction projects
from the contractor’s standpoint.
•
Development of a new strategy considering the AHP to support the contractor in the
evaluation and selection of construction projects.
•
•
Determination of weight and importance of some criteria through intensive field survey.
Applying a fuzzy risk analysis model to evaluate and quantify the time delay and cost overrun
criteria based on activities and the risk factors affecting them.
•
applying the new strategy on a real case study that involves HVAC systems in two countries
to allow a contractor to select one of them to be executed.
RESEACH METHDOLOGY
DATA
COLLECTION
DATA COLLECTION INSTRUMENT
Data is collection instruments used for this research are divided in two stages:
•
•
Stage-I: Semi-Structured Interviews
Stage-II: Brainstorming Sessions
DATA COLLECTION
STAGE-I: SEMI-STRUCTURED INTERVIEWS
The semi-structured interviews were convened for the identifications of the main criteria:
•
•
•
•
•
Market conditions
Financial resources
Project conditions
Time delays
Overruns
DATA COLLECTION
STAGE-II: BRAINSTORMING SESSIONS
Brainstorming Sessions were carried out in order to finalize the weights of first 3 criteria.
•
•
•
Market conditions
Financial resources
Project conditions
DATA ANALYSIS
&
INTERPRETATION
OF RESULTS
DATA ANALYSIS
SELECTION OF PROJECTS FROM CASE STUDY
Following two projects were selected from the case study related to HVAC systems:
•
Center of excellence building (Japanese University in Borg Al Arab, Alexandria, Egypt.)
a) Floors: 5 Storey
b) Area: 25,160
•
A Copthorne hotel building (South zone area of the Jabal Omar Development Project in Makkah,
Saudi Arabia)
a) Floors: 35 Storey
b) Area: 26,220
DATA ANALYSIS
APPLICAION OF MODELS
Following two models are employed in the case study to perform analysis:
•
The risk analysis model ( time delays and cost the activities - Analyzed against 55 identified risk
factors)
•
Fuzzy Models was implemented for the qualification of first 3 criteria (analyzed against 15
factors identified against the criteria)
INTERPRETAION OF RESULTS
Following results were interpreted:
•
Based on applying a risk analysis model, the expected time delay percentages for projects 1
and 2 were 26.5% and 21.5%, respectively, while the quantified cost overrun percentages for
the same projects were 25.1% and 23.4%, respectively. A positive relation between the effect of
the most important risk factors on cost and time was perceived.
•
The results from applying the new strategy showed 20% higher support for the selection of
project 2 as compared with support for project 1.
INTERPRETAION OF RESULTS
STEPS FOR APPLICATION OF NEW STRATEGY
•
•
•
•
•
Identifying all criteria that affect the project.
Identifying all factors that affect each criterion.
Applying the risk analysis model to quantify time delay and cost overrun..
Determining the weight and importance for each criterion.
Applying the decision model to compare the alternatives and select one of them to be executed.
CONCLUSIONS
•
•
•
•
•
A new strategy to support contractors for the evaluation and selection of a construction
project based on the AHP was developed.
Two projects in a case study for HVAC system execution in two different countries were used
to apply and validate the new strategy.
Five criteria and seventy factors affecting the contractor decision were identified through a
field survey, and the weight and importance of each criterion were determined.
One of the main benefits of the new strategy was that contractors were supported in selecting
projects with minimum risk levels.
Finally, the new strategy developed in this study can be utilized efficiently in other case
studies in construction projects.
THANK YOU