Supplemental Research Packet | 1
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
1. Table of Contents
2.1. Introduction by the Directors.......................................................................................2
2.2 A Sample Debate................................................................................................................ 3
2.3 Space as a Warfighting Domain..................................................................................... 22
2.4 Space and IR Theory........................................................................................................26
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
3. Pro Arguments................................................................................................................42
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
3.1 Space Exploration Unifies and Drives Development.................................................. 43
3.2 A Space Race is a Peaceful Avenue for Competition................................................... 45
3.3 A Space Race Drives Unprecedented Resources to Research and Development....47
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
4. Con Arguments.................................................................................................................. 51
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
4.1 Space Militarization......................................................................................................... 52
4.2 Space Militarization – Continued.................................................................................. 57
4.3 Space Exploration Costs too Much................................................................................ 59
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
1. Table of Contents............................................................................................................. 1
2. Background........................................................................................................................ 2
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
2. Background
ＮＨ
Ｓ
2.1. Introduction by the Directors
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
We’re excited to be releasing an advanced supplemental research packet in addition to
the main research packet. Intended for more advanced debaters, this packet contains
several more background, Pro, and Con articles that are a little more advanced and
noticeably longer. Don’t let this scare you! Several of the articles are very long but
worth the read.
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
This is not a standalone research packet as it does not contain any of the information or
articles from the main research packet. Instead, it is intended to supplement the main
research packet. It is highly recommended that debaters read through the main
research packet before beginning this supplemental research packet. The main research
packet contains a lot of background information and history necessary for debaters to
comprehend a lot of the more advanced issues discussed in the articles in this
supplemental packet. Remember: this is a supplement. You do not need to read
this in order to get a background on the topic. This will help but don’t feel like
you must read it.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
Before we move onto the additional articles, this introduction will bring up a few more
advanced issues that debaters might consider when thinking about case construction
and arguments.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 2
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
2.2 A Sample Debate
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
Note from the Directors: The following is a sample debate on this topic from four
experts. On the Pro Bidushi Bhattacharya, a rocket scientist and space entrepreneur
partners with Harvard professor Avi Loeb. On the Con, renowned astrophysicist
Michio Kaku partners with nuclear weapons expert and space reporter Raji
Rajagopalan. In addition to reading through their arguments, these are excellent
sources for further reading and research on this topic. Time stamps are included in
case you want to read along with the recorded debate (found at the link below).
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Intelligence Squared Debate: A US-China Space Race Is Good For Humanity.
https://intelligencesquaredus.org/debates/us-china-space-race-good-humanity
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
John Donvan:
Commercial rocket ships, a lunar outpost, expeditions to Venus and Mars. The second
golden age of space is upon us.
Avi Loeb:
Space is that ultimate frontier.
ＮＨ
Raji Rajagopalan:
We should be very afraid of a U.S.-China space competition and its consequences for all
of us.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Dozens of nations are looking to the stars, but one in particular is gaining ground on
what has been U.S. preeminence. Before 2003, China had yet to put a human in space. A
lot has changed. A potential trillion-dollar market is now up for grabs, and Beijing's
ambitions are growing.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
As are those of private entrepreneurs.
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
Just like we have Facebook and Google now, the powerhouses in the future are going to
be huge space companies.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Perhaps a new space race will kick start what JFK once called "the best of our energies
and skills." But there are dangers; competition between great powers could unleash new
military posturing with grave consequences.
00:01:00
Michio Kaku:
It'll escalate, of course, to a potential nuclear confrontation.
John Donvan:
So, is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 3
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Join us for That's Debatable, presented by Bloomberg and Intelligence Squared.
From Washington, D.C., I'm John Donvan, your host and moderator. Welcome to That's
Debatable, an interactive series on today's most pressing issues. We have four space
luminaries to debate this resolution, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?"
They take questions from me and our global audience, which votes to choose the winner.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The team arguing against, Michio Kaku, a bestselling author, theoretical physicist, and a
co-founder of String Field Theory. And Raji Rajagopalan, a distinguished fellow and
head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation,
one of India's leading think tanks.
00:02:03
Their opponents, Avi Loeb, a physicist who was the longest serving astronomy chair at
Harvard. And Bidushi Bhattacharya, a former NASA scientist turned entrepreneur; she
oversees global businesses and space education, and startup incubation.
Let's go to their opening statements.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
The development of outer space is inevitable, not just in the United States and China,
but in nations that have a per capita GDP that's just three percent that of the U.S., they
are becoming space leaders. This is not just governments around the world, it's also
private companies and startups. The price tag for space tech has dropped by a factor of
up to 10,000. Access to outer space is indeed democratized. Space-based goods and
services are exponentially growing, and it's a global sector. Let's figure out how to
cooperatively manage its development. A cooperative alliance that pulls expertise from
around the world would allow the United States to access goods and services that we
cannot access because we just work on this alone.
00:03:08
Let's be clear about this, space is democratized and exponential change is inevitable.
Would a U.S.-China space race be good for humanity or would it necessarily lead to the
rapid misallocation of resources for possible militarization of space? I don't think the
latter will happen.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Raji Rajagopalan:
I believe any space race will very quickly move into military competition, and U.S.-China
space competition will now -- will be no different. Second point, I think the U.S.-China
space race cannot be limited to just the two players. This will spread; this will have
cascading effects. Third point, which is we are already facing serious problems in space.
Space is crowded, congested, and with the space race, it's already contested as well. And
the usable areas in outer space is fairly limited, and we need, therefore, restraint in our
activities, the kind of activities that we engage in.
00:04:07
This means we also need to bring about multilateral governance, global rules, global
rules of the road, global agreements. But this would require, first and foremost,
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 4
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
multilateral negotiations and the key negotiating body, the Conference on Disarmament,
based in Geneva, has been stalemated for more than two decades. In fact, the last
negotiations happened in 1996. And I think, even though we do have a few treaties in
place, we need updating some of the existing measures, such as the Outer Space Treaty
of 1967.
We need to change the rules of the road for global governance. Otherwise, we will be
essentially making space sustainability a serious threat in the coming years.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
In general, competition is good, both for science, technology, and humanity, more
generally. Now, the competition between nations started in the oceans.
00:05:02
Imagine forbidding ships to leave Europe in fear of the use of ships for military purposes.
Where would we be today? The other point to keep in mind is that it's impossible to
enforce space laws, especially in the private sector, since the private sector is outside the
boundary of countries. Space is the ultimate frontier, and it's also important for national
security.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
We cannot assume cooperation by other nations, and we must protect our national
interests. There is a strategic advantage operating from space for surveillance satellites,
warning systems for ballistic missiles, monitoring and cleaning up space debris, and
monitoring existential risks such as climate change, pollution, or weather patterns.
00:05:59
Anyone arguing against competition signals an inferiority complex, and I do believe that
the U.S. and its partners will and should win the competition as we did with the Soviet
Union. And, obviously, there are concerns, but we should move forward with our
aspirations.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
I'm a professor of theoretical physics, but I also realize that physics can be used for
peace as well as warfare. We're talking about the fact that our missiles travel at 18,000
miles per hour. Within a matter of minutes, you can knock off the enemy's satellites,
communication systems, power systems, and create havoc and paralyze and blind the
enemy, which gives incentive for a first strike. Because if you strike first, you can bind
the enemy; if you strike second, you may not survive to strike second. Second of all, it'll
escalate, of course, to a potential nuclear confrontation. But there's a wild card; the wild
card is the electromagnetic pulse.
00:07:06
Back in the 1960s, the United States sent a Thor missile over the Pacific, detonated a
hydrogen bomb in outer space, and was shocked at the electromagnetic pulse which
paralyzed communications between San Francisco and Tokyo, set off burglar alarms all
over Hawaii. A small country like North Korea, being outgunned, can shoot a warhead
over Kansas and potentially knock out a good fraction of our satellites and power
systems in the United States. That's the great equalizer.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 5
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
And who's the most vulnerable if it goes to a first strike? We are. Over 50 percent of the
satellites in orbit are tied to the U.S. military or the U.S. economy. And remember, a
new arms race is brewing now. Hypersonic weapons, that's the name of the next round
of competition. Destabilizing weapons that are maneuverable, that travel up to 20 times
the speed of sound.
00:08:07
Let's not be naive. The Russians are working on it; the Chinese are working on it; we are
working on hypersonic drone vehicles, and a whole new arms race could start. So, the
window of opportunity is now. Now is the time for a treaty, before hypersonic weapons
destroy our chance for a peace in outer space.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Those are the opening statements, and here's how we determine the winner. Our
audience voted on this motion, 47 percent were for it, 33 percent against, 20 percent
undecided. They will vote again after the debate, and the team that sways the most votes
from one side to the other is our winner.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
First, people around the world submit their arguments online, then the A.I. assesses the
quality of the arguments, filtering out any irrelevant submissions and sorting the
remaining arguments into "for" and "against". Next, the technology identifies the
recurring key points, ranking them based on their quality and their frequency. Finally,
the A.I. creates a coherent narrative of the strongest and most prevalent points for both
sides of the debate.
00:10:03
And now we get to hear it, a selection of the key points and arguments that our global
audience, thousands of people around the world, thought were the most important on
this topic. So, let's get to that.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
That wraps up round one. Coming up next, A.I. technology breaks down what matters
most in our debate, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?"
00:09:12
Welcome back to That's Debatable, presented by Bloomberg and Intelligence Squared.
The motion, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?" We now bring in our
global audience; people around the world weighed in on this debate, and we turned to
IBM Watson to understand what matters most. Here's how the artificial intelligence
works.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
A.I. Speaker:
Hello, the following analysis used A.I. models to identify the critical key points made by
each side on the motion, "A U.S.-China space race is good for humanity;" 48 percent
support a U.S.-China space race, with 41 percent of those arguing that a rivalry between
the East and the West boosts innovation and scientific advancement.
Another key point for the motion was that a U.S.-China space race would demonstrate
how competition can expand knowledge and drive international cooperation. One
argument was that sustaining life outside of Earth offers a new chance to change social
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 6
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
constructs and forms of cooperation. People also think a space race helps drive
technology, jobs, and hope.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The remaining 52 percent were against the motion, with 14 percent of submissions
arguing that a U.S.-China space race will have serious negative consequences.
00:11:05
One argument said increasing competition and division between rivals will not benefit
humanity as a whole, but rather serve to divide us. Another key point against the motion
was that it will be a waste of precious resources, and the global space spending spree
between the U.S. and China would waste money that could be used more constructively.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
People also said that space colonization may worsen environmental degradation; the
constant launching of missiles produces a large amount of harmful exhaust gases that
contribute even more to climate change. While it would surely spur innovation, it would
also distract us from more important races such as the one to save our climate. Please
visit the website to see more results. Good luck to the human debaters here on Earth.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Avi Loeb:
What we miss in this context, is the fact that space is three-dimensional. We live on a
two-dimensional surface, the surface of the earth, and we tend to think that all
applications will be related to the surface, that there would be missiles coming from one
nation going to another. But in fact, you know, what we are discussing these days is
going to the moon to establish a sustainable base. That's what the NASA Artemis
program by 2024, to get there and establish a base, and then eventually go to Mars and
perhaps beyond, because there is a lot to space [laughs] beyond the limits of our
immediate environment.
00:13:02
And so, of course, there is the immediate environment and the risks for wars and so
forth, but the way I see space is the third dimension. We have to discuss that and the
technology to reach to the third dimension and the resources that we may find there.
The sun will burn out and, in fact, within less than a billion years, all the oceans on
Earth will be boiled off. So, we will have to go to space, it's inevitable, and we better start
now.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
So, it's interesting that the global audience brought up some arguments that none of the
four of you have brought up.
00:12:00
So, Avi, what about the argument that a space competition in and of itself would
exaggerate the spending for its own sake, particularly if it moved towards militarization
and that -- and that, by itself, competition would skew the allocation of resources in a
way that would not be good for humanity?
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
It's possible that are other civilizations that already did that, and we are -- if we are
stuck on this two-dimensional surface and worry about fighting with each other, that's a
very narrow-minded view of this three-dimensional volume that we can explore.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 7
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Okay, let me take that to Raji. So, I heard Avi saying, and I'm guessing everybody here
agrees that there's great potential and space to find and discover resources and
potentially to justify the costs that would go into that.
00:14:02
But, Raji, I think I heard Avi also saying that your note of caution on competition would
have a rollover effect of suppressing the degree to which people want to work in space
and explore in space and extend in space. What about that?
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Raji Rajagopalan:
No, I do not believe that is the case. Because if you look at the number of space
enterprises that are coming up, today space is no more just -- it consists of state actors.
You have a number of private sector players, commercial actors, and not -- this was
typically a Western phenomenon, but this has changed in the last few years. Asia, it is
changing in a big way. China has more than a hundred startups -- space startup
companies. India, again, it's changing. So, the number of space actors are also kind of
diversifying, and technological spinoff benefits from these kind of companies doing
different things, I think that's enormous, and I think that's hugely beneficial.
00:14:58
But at the same time, I do not believe that new technologies that are coming up,
essentially from China or Russia or even the U.S., in that sense, is necessarily towards
peaceful applications of space. That are more destructive ways. Just a couple of months
ago, you had the Russians -- Russia actually injecting -- coming up with a new projectile
out in space. So that was, in a sense, a first case of space weapon being tested there. So,
in a sense, I think the destructive aspects of new technologies are far more dominant
today, to me, but especially among the three key players, Russia, U.S., and China. So, I
think that that brings in more of destabilizing aspects of outer space exploration than
the positive aspects to me.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
All right, thank you, Raji -Avi Loeb:
Raji, you are basically make --
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
-- submitted. Oh go -- you go ahead. I'd like to hear the response.
00:15:53
Avi Loeb:
Yeah, I just wanted to say that I rest my case. Raji is making my point that, you know, if
the other countries make statements about ambitions for using space in ways that we
don't want them to use it for, we have no choice. We basically have to be superior in
terms of our technologies, such that we can enforce our set of values of using space for
scientific and technological advances.
Raji Rajagopalan:
But at the same time, the unbridled competition is what is the problem.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 8
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
A nation like India, China, they're going to go nuclear because they know they're
outgunned, and their ace in the hole is the EMP and nuclear weapons. If it goes to a war,
it's going to go nuclear very fast.
00:17:00
John Donvan:
We have a question from Eljuan Lobo-Perez [spelled phonetically], that's been
submitted during the course of the debate, who asks, "Why do proponents of
cooperation think that the Chinese will abide with any rules set down for genuine
cooperation?" Michio, I think that question goes, you know, directly at your thesis. So,
the question is, "Why would anybody expect the Chinese to play nice?"
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
But Michio is missing a major point --
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
-- your partner. Well, I was going to bring it to Bidushi. And I was going -- but I was
going to cite you, Avi. Bidushi, Avi, in his opening, has said that the U.S. would win in a
confrontation, and Michio was saying, well, the Chinese -00:18:58
Michio Kaku:
I think that's a fantasy -John Donvan:
-- know that, and --
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
Well, first of all, nations work in their own national interests. Let's not be naive about
this. We can dismiss all the highfalutin platitudes about peace and justice, stuff like that.
But the bottom line is nations work in their own interests. We pay generals to win wars,
we don't pay generals to lose wars. So, we have to craft a treaty that looks at the interests
of each nation. So, why was it that President Ronald Reagan signed one of the greatest
arms control treaties in history between the Soviet Union and the United States?
Because it was in their interests.
00:18:00
And the same thing here; the Chinese will realize that they're outgunned, that if it does
come to a war, they're going to suffer a lot, we'll suffer more, of course, but they, too, will
suffer with their economy, and that it is in their national interest to sign a treaty. And we
have to have ways to enforce that treaty and penalties if they violate the treaty. That's
how we did it during the Cold War, when there was a lot more at stake than what is at
stake now, and I think that nations work in their own interests, and their interests
should be peace, the peaceful exploration of outer space, rather than an arms race that
no one's going to win and we are the losers.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Coming up, the real risk of so-called unbridled competition in space.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 9
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
00:19:01
Michio Kaku:
-- that's a fantasy to believe that you can win in a war that goes nuclear very, very soon.
And a nation like India, China, they're going to go nuclear because they know they're
outgunned, and their ace in the hole is the EMP and nuclear weapons. If it goes to a war,
it's going to go nuclear very fast.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
But, Michio, you are missing a crucial point -[talking simultaneously]
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
No. No. Because I've asked Bidushi to come in, and then I'll come to you. Thank you for
respecting. Go, Bidushi.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
Well, I think I think you raise an interesting point. We want a win-win situation, not a
lose-lose situation. If it goes to war, it's lose-lose with we as the biggest loser. There's a
win-win situation where we sign a treaty that regulates the arms race, that sets guide
rules and penalties if you violate them, and seals into stone, in some sense, our
superiority in certain aspects of missile technology. That would be a win-win situation,
because in everyone's interest to manage the arms race, rather than let it spiral out of
control.
00:21:03
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
Yeah, I think that's right, but you have to throw --
John Donvan:
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
[talking simultaneously]
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
Yes, thanks. I think we're missing the point. We're looking at warfare in a very
traditional way; you have to talk about soft power. And, Michio, you mentioned having
treaties that are in the interests of everybody. So, think about space tech and China. Let
me try to tie NASA together with China for you. China has really bad issues with
pollution right now. Yesterday, NASA landed on an asteroid, and scooped up material to
bring back here to Earth. How can that be applied? It can be applied in mining, for
instance.
00:20:01
The asteroids out there contain all the material that we currently mine here on Earth. So,
if we continue to develop space technology, we would alleviate pollution associated with
mining here on Earth, not just for the U.S., but also for China, also India, and whatever
other country you want to talk about. So, if we can find that sweet spot where everybody
benefits, I think those benefits will override the choking pollution or whatever other
climate related issues that you're talking about right now, and that involves soft power.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 10
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
I want to bring in Avi on this because I cut you off before. So, Avi, jump on it, please.
ＮＨ
Ｓ
Avi Loeb:
Yes. So, I think Michio is missing a crucial point, and that is the private sector. It's not a
frontier that is pursued only by nations. It's pursued by the private sector. And we know
about SpaceX and Blue Origin's interest in going to Mars. And any treaty you sign
among nations does not need to be satisfied by the private sector, because the private
sector has its own commercial interests. And, therefore, I would argue that they --
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
No, no, that's within the border of the --
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
Michio Kaku:
Private companies have to obey national laws or else you go to jail -00:22:02
Avi Loeb:
Not in space. Not in space -Michio Kaku:
That's the foundation of our American judicial system.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
But there is no space --
[talking simultaneously]
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Raji, you've been very -Avi Loeb:
But, can I -- can I finish --
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Raji, you've been very patient and you're politely raising your hand, so I want to bring
you into the conversation. Raji, please jump in.
Raji Rajagopalan:
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
The laws say that private enterprise has to obey certain ground rules. If they don't, they
go to jail. That's called American justice--
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Avi Loeb:
I would argue --
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
The private sector has to obey laws. They have to obey laws--
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 11
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Yeah, of course, absolutely. Thank you. I think the commercialization of actors in space
is a very relevant point. You have SpaceX, you have Blue Origin, and so on and so forth.
But, if you look at the space commercial actors in China, they are not free -- there is no
free market out there. There is no market competition that is taking place. They are -they have a mercantilist approach. They are run, driven, and managed completely by the
state. So, that's point number one.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Second, the private sector is also bound by the -- bound by the laws that are signed by a
particular nation. So, if the SpaceX is going to launch something, they are bound by the
laws that the U.S. has signed onto. So, there are national -- there are international
treaties and regimes that govern even the outer space activities by the private sector, so
it cannot be that private sector can do anything that they feel like.
00:23:04
It's not a free for all game out there. I think that's a huge difference that one has to -- be
kept in mind.
John Donvan:
Avi, are you -- you're satisfied? You -- we can move on to another topic?
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Avi Loeb:
-- not at all. I do think that there is no enforcement mechanism of space laws at the
moment, and I do think that the interests of the commercial sector would win the day,
because there is a lot of potential benefits to space, commercial benefits, that outweigh
the military benefits. And as a result, I think that space will serve the better of humanity.
And so, the commercial aspects of going to space, space tourism, communication,
telecom, and mining, these will outweigh the military concerns that people have,
because of the global nature of the world economy right now.
00:24:02
Raji Rajagopalan:
I think this is, again, a demonstration of the kind of competitive spirit that is picking up
because Space Force first came up and it received a huge amount of news headlines and
so on and so forth, but that's because Trump has done it. But this is to say that this is
only a response to what the Chinese and the Russians have already done.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
I felt like you had --
ＬＣ
Avi Loeb:
No, I'm not --
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Welcome back, everybody, to That's Debatable, presented by Bloomberg and
Intelligence Squared. The motion, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?" The
arguments touch on business, politics, and economics.
Is it the case that, as during the Cold War, a new space race would spur scientific
advancement and collaboration? Or would this new round of competition lead to the
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 12
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
militarization of space, and put us all at risk? Since the Soviet Union's Sputnik launch in
1957, nations and private companies have jockeyed for their spot in the sky.
00:25:05
Today, it is dominated by new contenders. As competition takes off, the Trump
administration established the U.S. Space Force in 2019, the first new military branch in
more than 70 years. I asked our debaters, is that good or bad for humanity?
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Michio Kaku:
Well, let's face it. It's basically a bureaucratic maneuver where we move a lot of desks,
we move people's budgets, give people different titles. Because the Air Force already has
a space division, [laughs] so does the Navy, and so we're simply ratifying something that
already exists. It sounds great. Perhaps people will rally around the flag, I don't know.
The point is that it does not change the dynamics of what's happening on the ground.
Funding is still going in this direction; private enterprise is still moving in this direction;
and I think that outer space is going to be a province for economic development. I'm all
for that.
00:26:03
What I'm saying, is that that economic development should not be in the interests of
weapons that go nowhere, that destabilize the situation, and can only lead to a war.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
But I did want to address this issue of treaties and enforcement. We've been talking a lot
about having treaties between countries and making sure that if you launch from a
certain nation, that you follow the rules. But remember, as Avi said, space is three
dimensional. Space is huge. So, what are you going to do in the next decade or so? And I
know this from being in the sector for 30 years and having more startups, in particular,
in the last five years.
00:27:00
In the next decade or so, we're going to have the capacity to print material from lunar
regolith -- from material on the moon. And pretty soon, we're going to be launching
from the moon. Who owns the moon? How do you regulate this? And, as we step further
out to the asteroid belts and beyond, these rules are going to have to be regulated
somehow, and there is no universal body that can reinforce this. So, we do have to take a
different approach, because you can't just constrain these rules to a small bit of earth
and a sort of shell of space around us. It's just not going to work in the longer run.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Raji Rajagopalan:
Can I make a small point --
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
I have a question, Raji --
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
I would echo what Michio just said in terms of us shuffling desks around. What they've
done is just taken what's already been done by the Air Force and the Navy, and turned it
over to this new division. It sounds very cool; it gets people's attention. I'm not sure that
it increases our assets or our capabilities in any direct way.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 13
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
-- yeah, you know, please. I would like you to do that. Go ahead.
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Raji Rajagopalan:
Okay, so I just wanted to, kind of, talk to the Space Force question. And I think this is,
again, a demonstration of the kind of competitive spirit that is picking up because Space
Force came up, and it received a huge amount of news headlines and so on and so forth,
but that's because Trump has done it. But this is to say that this is only a response to
what the Chinese and the Russians have already done.
00:28:00
The PLA, for instance, that the Chinese military -- the PLA Strategic Support Force -came about in 2012, and the Russians had done similar reorganization a few years ago,
in a sense. It's bringing about greater coordination of different resources, different
inputs such as cyber, electromagnetic weapons, as well as space into one -- under one
command in a sense. So, this is -- you are seeing the securitization of space in a much
bigger way than we would have -- we would have really liked it to be. So, in a sense,
Space Force got a lot of attention, but I think there's a lot of other activities have been
going on in terms of institutional mechanism as well as coordination in other countries,
such as your opponent -- such as China and Russia, and I think those need to be looked
at as well.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Avi Loeb:
We should embark on it. And of course, there are political and military concerns, but
there is no way out of moving forward. That's the wave of the future, and that's what
excites the public.
00:29:12
John Donvan:
Avi, we have a question from an audience member named Jonathan Spitz [spelled
phonetically], and he asks, "Are the ideas of a space race and some form of peace in
space mutually exclusive?"
Ｓ
ＳＤ
John Donvan:
Coming up, we had it in the 1960s, but can we regain our excitement over outer space?
Avi Loeb:
I don't think so. I think, in fact, going to space will encourage cooperation. We have to
cooperate in terms of understanding how to live in space for longer periods of time and
how to establish the habitat that we have naturally here on Earth. So, space has great
benefits to science, understanding whether there is life in the universe, you know. That's
a fundamental question, "Are we alone?" And so, first we need to explore the objects
around us. We might find clues on Mars or whether the early liquid water that was on
the surface of Mars generated life as we know it on Earth, and that's a fundamental
question that interests most of the public.
00:30:10
So, just being worried about space, not exploring space because of the concerns about
military uses of space is the wrong attitude. We should be brave. It's just like the next
frontier. We should embark on it, and of course, there are political and military concerns,
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 14
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
[talking simultaneously]
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
but there is no way out of moving forward. That's the wave of the future, and that's what
excites the public. I think the public is looking for an excitement of the type that we had
with the Apollo program. Since the '60s, we lost that sense of excitement, and science
can bring that excitement back to the main street by exploring space. And so, giving up
on --
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
-- you were saying, Avi, I think that -- you go ahead, Michio.
00:30:57
Michio Kaku:
Okay, first of all, I'm all for exploring outer space. The dinosaurs, for example, the
dinosaurs did not have a space program. That's why there are no dinosaurs here today
on this debate; they got wiped out. We do have a space program, and so I'm all in favor
of exploring outer space. But what could stop the exploration of space? What could stop
the whole thing, is if space gets militarized, and all of a sudden, we have war zones and
different areas mapped out, different nations declaring supremacy in different areas.
That could ruin everything.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
And I think that, in the interest of science, that we should have scientists and explorers
in the forefront of exploring outer space rather than militaries. So, we have to rein in the
military, and the way to do that is with treaties. And that's why I'm saying that it's
worked in the past, that's why Ronald Reagan was able to pass some of the greatest arms
control treaties in the history of humankind. Because he realized that, yes, ultimately,
it's pointless. Ultimately, we in the United States are the biggest losers.
00:32:03
As the Chinese like to say, "never pick up a rock, only to drop it on your own feet." To
drop -- to pick up the militarization of space is to ruin our space, to make it into a
political football between militaries, and that is the opposite of what we scientists want.
So, we scientists want an open playing field; we want to have science for the benefit of
humanity, not for the benefit of some politician or some military. That's why we need a
new outer space treaty.
Avi Loeb:
I completely agree with that, but let me just make one simple point, that all the military
applications are concentrated on the surface of the Earth right now. And, as long as you
move far enough from the surface of the Earth, then it's just science. And so, if we have
our ambitions on the moon or on Mars and beyond, then I don't see any military
concern to go -- of going to Mars.
00:33:04
You know, I can see commercial benefits, so that's why I have no issue with going deep
into space. Of course, if you are close to the surface of the Earth, there are military
applications, but going deep into space is great for science.
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Michio Kaku:
But, the question is, who's going to plant the flag on the moon --
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 15
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
John Donvan:
Michio, can you hang on? I want to give -Bidushi Bhattacharya:
Let me just jump in here.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
- Bidushi a chance to jump in.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, John. I just want to jump in and point out something else, which is
that militaries dominate whatever frontier you're talking about because of money, right?
The U.S. military has far more money than any anybody else in the country at the
moment; same with any other government. That's where the cash comes from. But
you're not thinking about the commercialization of space. Once the space becomes truly
commercialized, those asteroids that I talked about earlier, they contain literally trillions
of dollars worth of material that can be brought back here to Earth. So, the balance of
power in terms of actual financing, in terms of actual outcomes for space, I think, is
different now than it ever was before.
00:34:06
So, this thing with treaties and governments, I think it's an important thing to consider,
but it's very limiting. You really need to think about the commercial aspects and how
quickly that's growing. And, you know, just like we have Facebook and Google now, the
powerhouses in the future are going to be huge space companies, not just the military.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Raji, I want to just ask you a bottom line question on this. If China -- if China does not
cooperate, if China goes ahead, if China -- if China goes all out to dominate space, what
is the U.S. supposed to do?
Raji Rajagopalan:
I think the U.S. will have to partner with other countries, because I think the
partnership is the name of the game. Partner with like-minded countries, whether it is
Japan, whether it is Australia, U.K., France, India, and I think each of the like-minded
countries can contribute in their own ways to strengthen the U.S. Competency, and I
think overall complementary -- complement the U.S. capabilities. So, I think that's to
happen. I think that we might come to that stage.
00:35:01
But, I think I also want to make one distinction between militarization of space and
weaponization of space. These are very -- these are terms that are used in a very
interchangeable fashion, but militarization of space is something that has already
happened.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
[talking simultaneously]
Supplemental Research Packet | 16
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
For decades now, the militaries around the world, even the --somewhat not the topmost,
top three militaries, but even the lesser number of lesser powerful militaries, are using
space for a number of military space applications. So, space has become part of the
military operations. There is no way about -- there is no two ways about it. But
weaponization is what we need to limit, and weaponization of space is not going to
happen; it's not going to be limited without global rules of the road. And, I think, even
though they may be difficult, there may be difficult path to reaching some sort of an
agreement, but also the enforcement or verifying these mechanisms can be difficult, can
be challenging. But it -- that is not to say that you don't need rules. Because even
whether it is asteroid mining or even other sort of activities, you need rules of the road.
00:36:04
John Donvan:
Let me bring in Michio, because you had your hand raised. Michio?
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Michio Kaku:
Right, if we were to wait ten, twenty years, then you're right, China would be much more
powerful, much -- have much more bargaining chips on the table, and it'd be much more
difficult to get the Chinese to sign a treaty. Now is the time, because now their space
program is still in its infancy; they're at a clear disadvantage to the United States. They
would be willing to engage in some kind of treaty because it's in their interest to do so,
but if we were to wait, wait for a few decades, then it's too late. We have a window of
opportunity, and the same thing with hypersonic drone vehicles, that maneuver that
could nullify a Star Wars system. If we wait, and then the Chinese and the Russians
develop their hypersonic systems, they're not going to bargain them away; that'd be
stupid; they had advantage there. So, now is the time, when these weapons systems are
in their infancy, to begin the process of doing some kind of treaty.
00:37:04
Now, also, people said there is -- one benefit of the space program is asteroid mining. I
agree, but asteroid mining, let's face it, is decades away. We're not talking about 30, 40
years into the future, when we may have colonies on asteroids. No, we're talking about
the situation now, with militarization going on, nations testing out their different kinds
of killer satellite systems. Now is the time to sign a treaty, not decades from now, when
we're going to benefit from the mining of asteroids, which is in the distant future, not in
the near future at all.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
The question before you is, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?" The best
way to handle this inevitable space race is to engineer it; engineer it, not just for our
advantage, but for the benefit of all of humanity.
00:38:05
John Donvan:
Welcome back to That's Debatable. The motion, "Is a U.S.-China space race, good for
humanity?" Now we go into round three, closing remarks from each of our debaters.
Bidushi Bhattacharya:
I hope by now you're convinced that the space sector promotes innovation, that access
to it has become increasingly democratized globally, and that the sector will move
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 17
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
inevitably at an accelerated pace in the coming years. This means you have
unimaginable spinoff technologies that are soon to be coming your way. Twenty years
ago, would you have imagined replacing those folded maps in your car with a map
application that fits in the palm of your hands?
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The question before you is, "Is a U.S.-China space race good for humanity?" The best
way to handle this inevitable space race is to engineer it; engineer it, not just for our
advantage, but for the benefit of all of humanity. Now, our opponents have expressed
concerns that an accelerated and costly militarization of outer space may occur.
00:39:05
Let's think about their concerns, which are valid. What would happen if, for instance, a
government entity or even a private party decided to wipe out the United States
telecommunications network using an electromagnetic pulse? The impact of such a
scenario could be mitigated if we start now. With a down-to-earth approach to space
development, we would be able to face this potential catastrophe with inclusive
partnerships already in place, where we would immediately be able to access global
networks of telecom satellites from other countries until we got our backup systems
back up in place.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Space is indeed becoming democratized. Today, startup companies can build and launch
a base model of a handheld satellite known as a CubeSat. This is something that my
startup company builds and works with on a regular basis. You can build and launch one
of these for the cost of Ferrari, for instance. The U.S. can and should take advantage of
wide-scale access to space tech, and build cooperation on a planet-wide basis. So, dear
viewers, please think big, aim for the stars, and vote in favor of the premise, "A U.S.China space race is good for humanity."
00:40:10
Raji Rajagopalan:
Let me come -- try and conclude my points with the two arguments. I think they are
already having difficulties in carrying peaceful activities in outer space, and I believe the
U.S.-China space race will make it much worse. I was part of the U.N. group of
government experts that met in 2018, 2019 as a technical adviser, and I witnessed
firsthand the kind of difficulties, the high level of disagreements between U.S.-China on
a number of these issues. And I believe this will get even more difficult, more
challenging in the coming years, with the U.S.-China space race gaining more traction.
We need a lot of work to get over these disagreements, to resolve these disagreements,
but it's not going to get any easy if you are going to go down the path of weaponizing
outer space.
00:41:01
It is harder to reach agreements because the U.S.-China competition has made the stand
of each of these countries extremely harder. This brings me to the second point I want to
talk -- conclude about with. This is about the consequences, John. The consequences of
intentional or accidental conflict in space is very, very severe, is seriously consequential.
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
A day without space is actually unimaginable. The whole world will be affected by it. No
hope for a vaccine, for instance. Like, for instance, the pandemic gives us a hope that we
can actually develop a vaccine, but we don't have such vaccine for a disruption in space.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 18
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
A pandemic disruption cause looks in -- looks, actually, pale in comparison to a sort of a
satellite disruption in space. This will be an unmitigated disaster, so we should be afraid.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
And we can enforce the values that we believe in, that science and technology should
drive us to space by being superior relative to everyone else. So, vote that space is good
for humanity, please.
00:44:04
John Donvan:
You mean the U.S.-China space competition [laughs] is good for humanity.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Avi Loeb:
U.S.-China space race will promote the exploration of space, and that is good for
humanity.
ＬＣ
John Donvan:
Okay.
Michio Kaku:
I'm all in favor of the exploration of space. I'm all in favor of mining the asteroid belt.
I'm all in favor of going on to Mars. But, realize what could upset the apple cart, what
could upset all our dreams of one day reaching for the stars. What could upset the entire
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Going to the moon, then to Mars and beyond, and going to asteroids. All of this offers
financial and commercial benefits, and it's relatively low cost compared to nuclear
weapons, for example. So, there is no way to prevent that, especially in the private sector;
I mean, nations can sign whatever they want, but if there is a commercial benefit, it's
hard for me to see how a space law would be enforced. Will there be a space police
chasing satellites?
00:43:12
And so, I think space offers great benefits, not only in terms of the global economy, but
also in terms of science. And we already see that in the context of astronomy; there are
many satellites that helped us discover new secrets about the universe. Nobel Prizes in
recent years were given to such discoveries, and the future is much brighter because we
can now imagine what we might be able to achieve going to the moon, going to Mars, the
many important benefits.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
We should be very afraid of a U.S.-China space competition and its consequences for all
of us. I hope the audience will -- are convinced about the arguments that we have made,
and will vote against the motion. Thank you.
00:42:04
Avi Loeb:
The space race is inevitable. The cat is already out of the bag, and the -- our best bet is
that the global economy would make cooperation the general theme of the space
exploration. And we should not forget that space is all about going in the third
dimension. We keep thinking about militarization of space, but that's only restricted to
very low latitudes above the Earth. Ultimately, space is all about going far from the
Earth and exploring what is out there and all the resources that we cannot find on Earth.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 19
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
thing, is if a war breaks out, if we have a space race, billions of dollars being wasted,
nations reaching for first strike capability, instability around the world. That's a horrible
price to pay. And it's unnecessary, because we could have a treaty and get it both ways.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Here's how the voting went on the resolution, "A U.S.-China space race is good for
humanity." Before the debate and polling our live audience, 47 percent agreed that the
space race is good for humanity, 33 percent were in disagreement with that, 20 percent
were undecided. Those are the first results. Now, again, it's going to be the difference, so
listen to the difference.
00:46:56
In the second vote, the team arguing for the motion, they started with 47 percent, their
second vote was 45 percent. They lost two percentage points. The team against the
motion, their first vote was 33 percent, their second vote was 51 percent. The team
arguing against the resolution pulled up 18 percentage points, that clearly makes them
our winner. So, I want to congratulate the team arguing against the resolution that the
U.S.-China space race is good for humanity, for their persuasive argument.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
But really, congratulations to all four of our debaters for shedding light, for doing this
with spirit and intelligence and decency and civility. Stay tuned for Bloomberg's next
debate, "Don't Worry About the Deficit" in partnership with Intelligence Squared. That's
coming on December 4th. I'm John Donvan. More of Bloomberg Television starts right
now.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
So, I say let's vote for a win-win situation. On one hand, we want economic progress; we
want the exploration of outer space. But we want it done safely for our children's sake,
so that our children do not inherit a world that's been savaged by wars. And just
remember, as the generals say, they always fight the last war. The next war will be short,
nasty, and brutal. Let's hope that our children don't have to face that kind of space war
because we had a Pollyanna approach to unbridled competition in outer space.
00:46:17
John Donvan:
And now to the winner, our audience voted, before the debate, on whether a U.S.-China
space race is good for humanity. They voted again after hearing all of the arguments,
and it is the side that sways the most minds between the two votes that is declared our
winner.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
A win-win situation; on one hand peace, which is the goal of everyone on the planet
Earth, or should be. And second of all, the peaceful exploration of outer space for the
benefit of humanity and private enterprise.
00:45:04
And it's possible, but we have to rein in certain ambitions, that is unbridled competition
in outer space just because we're number one. That's not the way we ended the arms
race during the Cold War. Some of the greatest treaties ever signed in the history of
humanity were done because both nations, the Soviet Union and the United States,
realized that it was pointless; it was a waste of money; it endangered the health and
safety of the entire planet Earth to continue an arms race of that nature.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 20
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 21
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
This is a rough transcript. Please excuse any errors.
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
2.3 Space as a Warfighting Domain
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“The Militarization of Space and its Transformation into a Warfighting Domain” Jun
Nagashima. Retired General and Adjunct Professor at National Defense Academy. July
17, 2020 https://www.spf.org/iina/en/articles/nagashima_02.html
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: The following article provides a technical overview what
current space-weapons capabilities are for major powers, developments that are
underway, and technical capabilities. While the policy recommendation at the end is
for Japan, this would be useful for impact analysis on either side of the debate.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
In January 2007, China carried out an anti-satellite destruction test using anti-satellite
weapons (ASAT), triggering the development of space as a warfighting domain in the
post-Cold War era. China needed to build asymmetric capabilities in space and
cyberspace[3]as a response to an expected contingency in the Taiwan Strait. This test
created a large amount of space debris and was met with intense international
criticism[4]. Although space was used militarily for decades during the Cold War, both
the U.S. and the Soviet Union refrained from these kinds of tests because careless
physical attacks could have a significant impact on all operations in space[5]. However,
China, which is pursuing a strategy of asymmetric warfare, has set foot into this
“sanctuary,” and forced the United States to recognize the vulnerability of its space
system[6].
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
In 2018, the United States issued its first National Space Strategy, which recognized that
its adversaries had turned space into a warfighting domain[1].Military use of space
began with the Sputnik crisis in October 1957[2], which initiated the space race between
the U.S. and the Soviet Union. More recently, a growing number of countries are
pursuing military uses of space. India conducted an anti-satellite weapons test in March
2019 and Iran launched its first military satellite launch in April. In its reorganization in
2015, the Chinese PLA established the Strategic Support Force, which handles the fields
of space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum. Russia also set up an independent
Space Force in the same year. In response to these developments, France established the
Space Command in September 2019, and the U.S. organized the Space Force last
December.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Space as a Warfighting Domain
ＬＣ
The promise of new prosperity
Space has enormous potential for not only the development of science and technology,
but also for economic growth. Globalized society is increasingly dependent on the space
system, and Japan is participating in the U.S.-led Artemis Program, which aims to
explore lunar space. China, which aspires to global economic leadership, is also moving
to make use of cislunar space[7], and is expected to work with Russia[8]. Non-military
competition in acquiring growth resources in space has already begun through the
development and use of relevant technologies. Next-generation information and
communications technology (ICT), quantum computing and other such technologies
will reduce the vulnerability of space systems.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 22
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
As space becomes a more important resource, increasing the resilience of space systems
has become an urgent issue. There were about 20,000 pieces of space debris as of
November 2019[9], and more players are set to enter the field with new business models
that use a constellation of small, cheaper satellites. As a result, “congestion” in space is
expected to become more serious. Furthermore, in addition to kinetic threats like ASAT
and physical deterioration, non-kinetic threats like cyberattacks and laser obstruction
are becoming more dangerous. The vulnerability of space systems will inevitably
increase.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
In the June 2020 U.S. Defense Space Strategy, China and Russia are labelled as the
biggest operational threats to the U.S. in outer space, and are designated as parties who
have weaponized space and turned it into an area of great power competition. Both
China and Russia, which prioritize their own usage of space, are criticized for trying to
prevent other countries from freely utilizing space[10].
Space is becoming a less stable environment, even as it holds the promise of becoming a
new source of human prosperity.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The resilience of the space system
There are growing signs that space is being utilized for security as the concept of the
battlefield has changed with advances in technology[11].Technologies to address air and
missile threats are a clear example of this. The accuracy and reliability of ballistic missile
defense (BMD) systems has improved in recent years, but developments in offensive
technologies have outpaced this progress. China and Russia are developing flying object
threats that overwhelm defensive reaction capability in Western countries. Hypersonic
glide vehicles (HGV), for example, travel at Mach 5 or higher, and missile threats with
orbital change capabilities are difficult to intercept.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
The promise of new prosperity
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
U.S. officials recognize the difficulty in tracking and dealing with Chinese or Russian
hypersonic missiles, weapons that could be mounted with nuclear warheads.
Discussions in the U.S. are now focused on the development of a space-based sensor
systems, like Proliferated Low Earth orbital (PLEO) constellations[12]. Officials have
also studied a space-based ballistic interception function and a directed energy weapon
for intercepting missiles. There is a new focus on addressing threats that are difficult to
detect and track on the ground, such as weapons that fly at hypersonic speeds, by
monitoring and warning systems in space. At the same time, Russia and China are
rushing to develop and deploy HGVs, like the Avangard and Dongfeng 17 (DF17), so it is
urgent that democratic countries establish effective and timely countermeasures.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Since 2003, Japan has been developing a multi-layered BMD system through steps like
equipping Aegis ships with ballistic missile response capabilities and deploying Patriot
(PAC-3) missiles. But the government recently announced that it would abandon the
deployment of two land-based Aegis systems (Aegis Ashore), which were intended to
improve Japan’s protective capabilities. The government now needs to clarify how it
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 23
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
intends to deal with evolving airborne threats like HGVs, and how it will implement a
comprehensive defense system while still considering cost-effectiveness. Considering
the importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance and multilateral security cooperation, a global
perspective that includes “multilateral deterrence” of and joint responses to airborne
threats to space utilization is also needed.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The battle between offensive and defensive equipment and technology is an unending
competition. As one gains superiority, the other redoubles its efforts and races to
surpass it. Because all progress in these fields is relative[13], the competition among
nations in space is one with no end in sight.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
The resilience of the space system
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Protecting the global commons of space is an important mission for both the
international community and for individual nations. All need to fulfill their
responsibility to guard the space system against risks and threats, and maintain it as a
sustainable and stable domain.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Japan's path forward
In Japan, the Strategic Headquarters for Space Development laid out a new Basic Plan
on Space Policy on June 29[14], which was approved by the Cabinet on June 30[15]. It
calls for Japan to become an independent space power through cooperation with allies,
strengthening its industrial and science technology infrastructure and expanding the
scope of its space utilization[16]. Additionally, the rapid development of dual-use
technologies that have both civilian and military applications requires cooperation
among industry, government and academia to guarantee the Mission Assurance of the
space system. It is crucial that the industrial and science technology foundations that
support Japan’s independent space activities be rebuilt, and that technologies that
enable flexible responses and cross-sectional management be developed.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
In the famous novel Alice Through the Looking Glass, the Red Queen advises Alice that
“It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place"[17]. Japan, in
cooperation with the international community, must keep running to eliminate
vulnerabilities in the space system and strengthen its resilience. Strengthening
resilience is the only way to guard against increasing threats to the existing system, but
their rapid evolution means that will be very challenging.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
(2020/7/17)
Notes
ＬＣ
1 The White House, “Fact Sheets: President Donald J. Trump is Unveiling an America First National Space Strategy”, March 23,
2018.
2 Benjamin Bahney and Jonathan Pearl, “Why Creating a Space Force Changes Nothing Space Has Been Militarized From the Start,”
Foreign Affairs, March 26 2007.
3 Bates Gill and Martin Kleiber, “China's Space Odyssey: What the Antisatellite Test Reveals About Decision-Making in Beijing,”
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007.
4 Marc Kaufman and Dafna Linzer, ”China Criticized for Anti-Satellite Missile Test Destruction of an Aging Satellite Illustrates
Vulnerability of U.S. Space Assets,” The Washington Post, January 19, 2007.
5 Yasuhito Fukushima, Order and Disorder in Space Security Past, Present and Future (Japanese), Chikura Shobo, 2020, p. 105.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 24
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 25
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
6 Elbridge Colby.” FROM SANCTUARY TO BATTLEFIELD: A Framework for a U.S. Defense and Deterrence Strategy for Space.”
Center for a New American Security, January 2016, p.7.
7 Cislunar space refers to the "space between the earth and the moon," Yasuhito Fukushima, op. cit., p.193.
8 “Russia, China to add lunar projects to joint space cooperation program”, TASS, July 12, 2018.
9 Orbital Debris Quarterly News, vol. 24, Issue 1, NASA, February 2020.
10 U.S. Department of Defense, DEFENSE SPACE STRATEGY SUMMARY, June 2020. p.3.
11 Lauren Elkins, ”The 6th War-Fighting Domain,” Over the Horizon (OTH), November 5, 2019.
12 U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, ”Missile Defense Policies and Programs,” April 3,
2019.
13 Matt Ridley, ”Human Nature,” in The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature, Harper Perennial (1993), p.18.
14 Cabinet Public Relations Office,” Strategic Headquarters for Space Development”, June 29 2020.
15 https://www8.cao.go.jp/space/english/index-e.html
16 National Space Policy Secretariat, Cabinet Office, “Japan, Outline of the Basic Plan on Space Policy (Provisional Translation),”
June 30, 2020.
17 Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Enhanced Media Publishing (2016), p.20.
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
2.4 Space and IR Theory
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“International Geopolitics and Space Regulation” Nucera, Gianfranco Gabriele.
International Geopolitics and Space Regulation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of
Planetary
Science.
https://oxfordre.com/planetaryscience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190647926.001.00
01/acrefore-9780190647926-e-40
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Many of your debates may come down to predicting how
nations behave. International Relations studies the behavior of nation-states. The
following article contextualizes several IR theories to our topic. Clearly explaining why
a particular IR theory would be more predictive than another would be a winning
strategy. This article is quite lengthy and debaters may be better served by jumping to
the sections explaining the various theories and looking for arguments that resonate
with them. We have bolded the key theories, which are in the first half of the essay.
The second half of the essay discusses the history of international space law and
provides future recommendations.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Introduction
Outer space has always been an area of relevant geopolitical value due to strategic and
economic reasons. Governments as well as private companies try to benefit from using
space technologies and their applications. Furthermore, national space policies and
programs have been central elements of the foreign policy of the states, as well as of
their external influence and prestige in the context of international politics and
diplomacy. Since the beginning of the so-called space age, national space policies have
pursued both political and economic objectives, taking into account relevant security
and military considerations. Military issues, in particular, have always been
fundamental drivers for the development of scientific researches and technological
devices (such as the systems of global positioning). In addition, during the Cold War,
conducting activities in outer space represented an important tool for the enhancement
of international cooperation, mainly within the blocs.
After the Second World War, the international relations were based on the dichotomy
between the United States and the Soviet Union (USSR). The foundation of activities in
outer space finds its roots in the Cold War and reproduces the distinctive geopolitical
dynamics of that historical moment. In this context, outer space was considered as the
ultimate dimension of the competition between the two states.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The diverging interests between the United States and the USSR at the time
consolidated in political tensions that characterized the competition to reach outer
space. Even if these tensions surrounded all international debates and negotiations, they
have not impeded the reaching of consensus for the elaboration of international
common rules to conduct space activities, to protect common interests, and to allow for
the peaceful use of outer space. In this sense, agreements between the parties were
instrumental in the development of space activities.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 26
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The international legal regime of outer space is characterized by the existence of specific
rules aimed at guaranteeing free access, exploration, and use, with due regard to the
corresponding interests of all states; preserving outer space from national appropriation;
and prohibiting aggressive uses of outer space. It is a regime that protects the interests
of all states even if, at that time when such rules were negotiated, only few states had the
possibility to carry out space activities, from an economic, scientific, and technological
point of view. Thanks to the adoption of a long-term perspective, the rules and
principles concerning space activities survived, without particular difficulties, the
changes in international relations derived from the dissolution of the USSR and the
globalization and emergence of private actors interested in the field.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
As many authors have correctly pointed out, the multiplication of actors in space after
the end of the Cold War, coupled with increased reliance on and use of space
technologies, means that space has emerged as an important component of national
power and an excellent indicator of the status of an actor in the regional and
international arenas.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
The classical space geopolitics deals with how states should act in outer space to
increase their influence in the international arena. In addition to the traditional
dimensions of power, such as terrestrial, maritime, and aerial, the extraterrestrial
dimension has become the fourth and most advanced element of power in international
relations. In this sense, space activities represent a new instrument to enhance foreign
policy or to reach a hegemonic position of power, due to scientific, technological, and
military reasons.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Space Geopolitics
Traditional geopolitics, developed since the beginning of the 20th century, explores how
a political area and its development have been influenced by geographical factors. This
kind of analysis was reintroduced in the international political discourse in the 1950s,
when some scholars emphasized the human factors over the influence of geographical
features in foreign policy (Mackinder, 1904; Spykman, 1944).
The development of space activities and the evolving context of international politics
between the post–World War II period and today encouraged a doctrinal debate that
aims at reproducing and applying the classical theories of power to the political
situation. The main approaches rely on different theoretical basis, such as realism,
liberalism, determinism, and interactionism. These theories are largely
attributable to American authors.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The first theory that, since the 1950s, aimed at explaining the link between international
relations, politics of power, and space regulation focused on the issue of security (Moltz,
2011). According to the “space nationalism” theory, states have the right to protect
their space assets including through space militarization and direct military intervention
against another state (Dolman, 1999; Kash, 1967; von Bencke, 1997).
In the opinion of the authors embracing the theory of the “global institutionalism,”
on the contrary, militarization is seen as a danger for the evolution of space activities,
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 27
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
and the only way to guarantee the peaceful use of outer space is to establish an
international authority, with a specific mandate to regulate activities and act on behalf
of the international community (Clarke, 1959; Hibbs, 1966).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The theory of “technological determinism,” rooted in the 1970s, underlines that, in
the context of the international legal order of the time, it was impossible for
international organizations to fully control space activities and only states had the right
to conduct activities in outer space. The role for international organizations was thus to
monitor such activities and make recommendations to promote a proper exploration
and use of outer space (Frutkin, 1965; York, 1970).
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
The theory of “social interactionism,” developed during the 1980s, focused on the
political aspects of the decision-making process. It described the technological and
political outcomes of international cooperation among states and did not give attention
to the legal aspects. The authors embracing this theory rejected the idea of the
inevitability of space weaponization, which could be prevented by enhancing
transparency and reciprocal understanding in international relations (Jervis, 1976;
Neustadt & May, 1986).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
According to most of the theories developed during the space race, whoever controls
outer space and its specific assets controls Earth. These assumptions derive from the
application to the outer space area of the traditional theory of Mackinder (1904) on the
heartland and on the continental power. Crucial to this theory was the physical
impossibility to occupy all the critical areas of the world (heartland, World Island, and
so on). Therefore, in order to reach full control of the cited areas, it is important to deny
control of those areas to the adversaries (Mackinder, 1904).
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Realist Approach After the End of the United States–URSS Competition
Political realism assumes that power is the primary objective of action. Classical realism
considers states, in the absence of a supranational overarching authority, as actors in
permanent competition for power. This condition is seen as the only solution for the
state to fulfill its interests and survive (Morgenthau, 1960).
The realist approach was linked to the idea of “realpolitik” that surrounded the era of
the Cold War. The term “astropolitik” means the application of the preeminent and
refined realist vision of state competition into outer space, particularly in contrast to the
development and evolution of a legal and political regime for the use of space.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Orbits, regions of space, and launch points are described as geopolitically vital assets
over which states should competitively and strategically struggle for their control. On
this basis, the theory of the astropolitik makes a demarcation of the four geopolitical
regions of outer space (Earth, Earth space, Moon space, solar space) and reproduces the
assumption that whoever controls the terrestrial orbit controls outer space and whoever
controls outer space dominates the world. Dolman (1999) specifies that domination of
space will come through efficient control of specific strategic narrows, choke points, and
lanes of commerce. In this sense, security on Earth depends on security in space,
ensured by national control over the strategic assets (Dolman, 1999).
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 28
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
In the view of Dolman (1999), the weaponization of space is inevitable, and the United
States must be prepared to face this challenge. Furthermore, Dolman suggests the
withdrawal of the United States from the existing international legal regime on space
activities, particularly the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the
Exploration and Use of Outer Space (the Outer Space Treaty [OST]), because this
instrument, in the opinion of the author, adopts a “global common” perspective instead
of pursuing the objectives of a free market competition and privatization of space
resources (Dolman, 2002). However, the idea that the OST generates the difficulties of
U.S. private actors in engaging in space activities was examined in a May 2017 hearing
before the U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness. During
the hearing, titled “Reopening the American Frontier: Exploring How the Outer Space
Treaty Will Impact American Commerce and Settlement in Space,” the experts declared
that the OST itself was not a barrier for private actors and that they favored U.S.
participation in the treaty. National legislation, instead, represents a barrier because of
the lack of clarity (United States Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and
Competitiveness, 2017).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The realist approach seems to be useful to explain the space security and defense related
dynamics of an important geopolitical phase, started with the 1983 Strategic Defense
Initiative, promulgated by U.S. President Reagan, and intensified since the 2002
withdrawal of the United States from the 1972 Treaty Between the United States of
America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of
Strategic Offensive Arms. The Treaty aimed at limiting the parties’ defenses against
ballistic missiles, in line with its recognition of the logic of the mutually assured
destruction. The U.S. withdrawal represents a shift from the traditional geopolitics of
the Cold War toward a new competitive phase of space security on a national level, as
was the case of the Russian response through the 2002 withdrawal from the 1993 Treaty
Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Further Reduction
and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, and on an international level, with several
new initiatives launched in the context of the United Nations (UN) Conference on
Disarmament to discuss the prevention of an arms race in outer space.
Liberal Vision through the New Era of Space Activities
In contrast to the realist vision, the liberal school does not conceive the world as in a
state of permanent war deriving from competition between countries. The application of
liberalism, which is based on the principles of freedom and equality, to international
relations leads to the assumption that states and peoples should be aware of their
common objectives, which can be reached through effective international cooperation,
rather than unilateral efforts. It takes into account also non-state actors and the national
interests of all spacefaring states.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Deudney (2002) introduced a materialist argument to construct geopolitics as
“historical security materialism.” In this model, the forces of destruction,
constituted by the interaction between geography and technology, determine the
security functionality of different modes of protection. Two competing modes of
protection, the real-state and the federal-republican, entail different forms of arms
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 29
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
control and patterns of institution-building and in turn generate differing political
structures (Deudney, 2002). According to the theory, the more a security context is rich
in the potential for violence, the better suited a federal-republican mode of protection is
to avoid a systemic breakdown (Havercroft & Duvall, 2009).
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The global institutionalism school shares with the liberal approach the concept of
institutionalized cooperation, underlining the role that space treaties, institutions, and
multilateral actions play in maintaining peace on Earth. For instance, global
institutionalists see the OST as a major achievement for the nonproliferation of nuclear
weapons.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Relevant Geopolitical Theories Developed During the 21st Century
According to the aforementioned studies, the limited number of actors able to carry out
space missions was the main reason for a balanced international order. Over the past
few decades, space activities have changed due to the growing participation of non-state
actors to the so-called space economy. The end of the Cold War era produced a
structural change in international relations in the space sector. The traditional scheme
of cooperation within the Western, or Eastern, bloc was overcome by a stronger
multilateral cooperation, such as in the case of the International Space Station, the most
important multilateral scientific project between 16 states, designed for providing
conditions for permanent human presence and work in outer space.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The critics of the liberal theory point out that, with the end of the Cold War, the
international order based on the equilibrium between the superpowers system collapsed,
and there is no reason for cooperation from a security and legal perspective but only
from an economic one. Hays and Lutes (2007) underline that the passage from
bilateralism to multilateralism dilutes the power from a political and legal perspective.
According to these authors, the real objective of space activities is the wealth of
population, to be gained through scientific cooperation (Hays & Lutes, 2007). This
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
International space cooperation had indeed a central role in the context of deterrence.
The best example was the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project in 1975, which was the first human
spaceflight to include two participating states working together with their own national
spacecraft. During the mission, the two modules docked, and the astronauts conducted
joint science experiments. Furthermore, the impact of the project went far beyond the
scientific aspects, because the image of the two space crews warmly greeting each other
reached a global audience watching the historic event on television.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The liberal approach assumes that the effective control of outer space by one state would
lead to a negative planetwide hegemony, in contrast with the possibility to peacefully
use outer space and with the necessary balance between the two superpowers. There
should be no hegemony in space but rather collaboration. According to liberal authors,
the proof of the correct vision of the liberalist approach lies in the specificity of the Cold
War era, mainly characterized by two aspects: on the one side the arms race and the
related theory of deterrence and, on the other side, international cooperation, both
inter- and intra-bloc, as a way to promote peace through binding practices. The basic
idea is to limit conflicts among superpowers by securing cooperation in outer space.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 30
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
opinion is, however, partial, because it does not consider the relevant aspects of the legal
elements of new applications, military applications, and dual use technologies.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
It is true that the dual hegemony of the Cold War is terminated; however, new states
have emerged and gained a prominent role in the international arena, designing a
transition from a bipolar to a multipolar world. As Peter (2006) correctly highlights, the
axes of bilateral and multilateral cooperation are evolving, disappearing, and
reconstituting. For example, new forms of bilateral cooperation have affected the
relations between China and Argentina or Brazil (Peter, 2006).
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Another relevant theory is critical astropolitics, which is based on social
constructivism and according to which political subjects emerge from power relations.
The theory criticizes realist and liberal theories because they underestimate the
consequences of a possible U.S. hegemony in space on global security, without an
effective regulatory framework and mechanism (Havercroft & Duvall, 2009).
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Geopolitics and Regulation of Space Activities
Once competition in outer space started, almost simultaneously the fundamental
principles of law applicable to space activities emerged. International geopolitical
dynamics were reflected in space regulations developed during the Cold War era, which
fixed the basis for the evolution of space activities until today.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Another theory regards the so-called meta-geopolitics of outer space, which adopts a
multidimensional view of power, including soft-power instruments. It considers
demographical projections, public health issues, and other factors of potential
development to explore whether a state will continue to have a specific geopolitical
status or if it will change in the near future. Al Rodhan (2012) explains that, with its
theory of “symbiotic realism,” in a globalized and interdependent world, problems
can only be solved through multilateral action and cooperation, involving not only the
concerned states but also nongovernmental organizations and stakeholders.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
After the launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, which is conventionally understood as the moment
of the beginning of the space race, it was clear that some regulation for the use of outer
space for peaceful purposes was necessary (Christol, 1982; Jenks, 1965; Lachs, 1964;
Zhukov,1978). Both the United States and the USSR agreed on the great prospects
opening for humankind as a result of the entry of a man into outer space and that it
would be better to reach decisions on a multilateral level.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The Role of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in the
Development of Space Law
On initiative of the United States and the USSR, the UN General Assembly, with its
Resolution 1348 (XIII) of December 13, 1958, instituted an ad hoc Committee on the
Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), composed of 18 members. On December 12,
1959, with Resolution 1472 (XIV), the COPUOS acquired the status of a permanent
subsidiary body of the General Assembly, according to Articles 7 and 22 of the UN
Charter.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 31
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Since its establishment, the membership of the COPUOS has continued to expand. In
addition, some international organizations, including both intergovernmental and
nongovernmental organizations, have observer status within the COPUOS and its
subcommittees (Scientific and Technical Subcommittee and Legal Subcommittee). The
mandate of the Committee aims at strengthening the international legal regime
governing outer space and improving conditions for expanding international
cooperation in this sector. The mandate also specifies that the Committee should
support efforts at the national, regional, and global levels, including those of entities of
the UN system and international space-related entities, to maximize the benefits of the
use of space science and technology and their applications. The main international
provisions, binding and not binding, dealing with space activities have been drafted and
discussed in the context of the Committee.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The first important legal instrument discussed within the COPUOS was a Resolution on
International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, subsequently adopted by
the UN General Assembly on December 20, 1961. Resolution 1721 (XVI) recommends
states follow the principles of international law during their exploration and use of outer
space and emphasizes the freedom of exploration and the prohibition of national
appropriation. The Resolution calls upon states launching objects into orbit, or beyond,
to furnish information promptly to the COPUOS, through the secretary-general, for the
registration of launchings. It further requests that the secretary-general maintain a
public registry of the information furnished.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
By examining the activities of the COPUOS, with specific attention to its
accomplishments in the field of international space law, relevant doctrine identifies
three evolutionary phases. The first phase, called the law-making era, began with the
creation of the Committee and ended in the 1980s, while the second phase was
characterized by the adoption of soft-law instruments and ended in the middle of 1990s.
The third, and current, phase is characterized by efforts to broaden the acceptance of the
UN space treaties and to assess their application (Marchisio, 2005).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
A few years later, the Committee discussed and approved a declaration of principles to
define a common legal basis for the peaceful use and exploration of outer space. On
December 13, 1963, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 1962 (XVIII),
Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and
Use of Outer Space. The Resolution recognizes the common interest of all humankind in
the progress of the exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes and for the
benefit of states irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development. The
Declaration establishes the fundamental principles for conducting space activities, such
as the freedom of exploration and use by all states on a basis of equality and in
accordance with international law; the prohibition of national appropriation by claim of
sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means; the international
responsibility for national activities in outer space, whether carried out by governmental
agencies or by nongovernmental entities; the principle of due regard for the
corresponding interests of other states; the duty to register an object launched into
outer space and exercise jurisdiction and control over such object; the principle of
liability for damages produced by such object; and the duty to assist the astronauts, as
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 32
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
envoys of humankind in outer space, in the event of accident, distress, or emergency
landing on the territory of a foreign state or on the high seas.
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
The International Rules and Principles on Space Activities
The OST, opened for signature on January 27, 1967, and entered into force on October
10 of the same year, is the main legal instrument that codifies the general principles of
international law of space activities, and it is the result of a reciprocal understanding
between the United States and the USSR. The legal regime of space as outlined by the
OST is that of a res communes omnium, a common good in which the principle of free
access applies, although subject to a few conditions such as the conduct of activities in
accordance with the interests of all states, without discrimination based on the degree of
economic or scientific development, and the condition of the peaceful nature of the
activity. The free exploration and use of outer space are prerogatives of all humanity and
must be conducted “with due regards to the corresponding interests of all other states.”
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
In addition to the principles of free access, exploration, and use, the OST established the
prohibition of appropriation of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial
bodies, by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means
(Art. II); the compliance of space activities with international law (Art. III); and the
prohibition of placing weapons of mass destruction in orbit (Art. IV). Furthermore,
other obligations were established. Articles VI and VII prefigure the legal regime
concerning state responsibility and liability for activities conducted in outer space, and
Article VIII concerns the registration of space objects (Hobe et al., 2009).
The compromise between the United States and the USSR is clear when considering the
wording of Article VI of the OST, which establishes international responsibility for
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Following the adoption of the 1963 Declaration of Principles, the General Assembly
requested the COPUOS to consider the incorporation of the principles in an
international agreement. In 1966, the USSR submitted a draft text of a treaty on
principles, followed by a counterproposal by the United States. The Legal Subcommittee
then established a working group to discuss both proposals and to define a group of
articles to be agreed on by all parties. After a subsequent discussion during the session
of the main committee, an agreement on the text was reached (Hobe, Schmidt-Tedd, &
Schrogl, 2009).
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The reaching of a consensus on the adoption of a few legal principles was a fundamental
step in the evolution of international space law. A few months before the adoption of the
Declaration, another important legal instrument was adopted thanks to the achievement
of a compromise between the United States and the USSR. On August 5, 1963, the
Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapons Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under
Water (Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty), which banned all tests of nuclear weapons in outer
space, was enacted. The Treaty contained the first rules prohibiting nuclear explosions
in outer space and thus aimed at protecting the space environment and promote the
peaceful use of outer space. Furthermore, the reaching of an agreement on this matter
between the two superpowers produced a more favorable climate for détente and for the
attainment of other legal and political compromises.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 33
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
national activities, including that of nongovernmental agencies. The principle of
responsibility established by Article VI, which derives from Principle 5 of the 1963
Declaration of Principles, in the first proposal by the USSR, referred exclusively to states.
As at the time the United States had already planned for private activities in outer space,
it rejected the proposal. A Working Group on Article VI composed the dissent. The
acceptance of the wording of Article VI by the USSR was influenced by the presumption
that launchers would be state-run in the long term, and therefore states could practically
control their space activities (Hobe et al., 2009).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The latter agreement is particularly interesting because of the geopolitical context
during which it was negotiated. During the 1960s, new states emerged from the process
of decolonization, producing a different majority within the UN bodies, with the
prevalence of developing over developed states, thus marking a shift in international
politics. The drafting of the Moon Agreement was certainly influenced by the struggle
for the establishment of a new international economic order, and, considering the
previous space treaties, it represented a different perspective, which took into account
the needs of developing countries through the concept of the common heritage of
humankind, applicable to the Moon and its natural resources, in order to reach an
equitable sharing of the benefits deriving from the use of the resources of the Moon. The
Moon Agreement was also discussed in parallel to the Third Conference on the Law of
the Sea, another international process concluded with the explicit recognition of the
concept of the common heritage of humankind in the text of the UN Convention on the
Law of the Sea, adopted in 1982, in relation to seabed, ocean floor, and subsoil thereof,
beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The principles established by the 1967 OST were then specified and detailed in the
following treaties: the Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts
and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space, opened for signature on April 22,
1968, and entered into force on December 3, 1968; the Convention on International
Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects, opened for signature on March 29, 1972,
and entered into force on September 1, 1972; the Convention on Registration of Objects
Launched into Outer Space, opened for signature on January 14, 1975, and entered into
force on September 15, 1976; and the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on
the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies (Moon Agreement), opened for signature on
December 18, 1979, and entered into force on July 11, 1984 (Hobe, Schmidt-Tedd, &
Schrogl, 2013).
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
As anticipated, in addition to the conventional rules, a few declarations of principles
refer to space activities (Kopal, 1988), which aim at regulating certain aspects such as
radio and television broadcasting, remote sensing, nuclear energy sources in space, and
international cooperation in the field of space. The UN General Assembly adopted
several resolutions that established the general principles applicable to these activities:
No. 37/92 of December 10, 1982, on the Principles Governing the Use by States of
Artificial Earth Satellites for International Direct Television Broadcasting (Christol,
1985); No. 41/65 of December 3, 1986, on the Principles Relating to Remote Sensing of
the Earth from Outer Space (Marchisio, 2004); No. 47/68 of December 14, 1992, on the
Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space; and No. 51/122
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 34
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
of December 13, 1996, containing the Declaration on International Cooperation in the
Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Benefit and in the Interest of All States,
Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries (Hobe, Schmidt-Tedd,
& Schrogl, 2015; Marboe, 2012).
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Among them, the Declaration of Principles drafted by the COPUOS and consensually
adopted by the UN General Assembly has a special significance for space activities.
Although merely recommendations, “they can pave the way for the consolidation of
customary rules of international law. In this perspective, the decisive element comes
from the practice of states prior to, concomitant with, and following the UN
recommendation process” (Marchisio, 2005, pp. 232–233). According to the
International Court of Justice (1996, 254-255),
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
[the] General Assembly resolutions, even if they are not binding, may sometimes have
normative value. They can provide, in certain circumstances, important evidence for
establishing the existence of a rule or the emergence of an opinio juris. To establish
whether this is true of a given General Assembly resolution, it is necessary to look at its
content and the conditions of its adoption; it is also necessary to see whether an opinio
juris exists as to its normative character.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
All the aforementioned declarations have been adopted by consensus, except for
Resolution No. 37/92 on Principles Governing the Use by States of Artificial Satellites
for International Direct Television Broadcasting. This resolution addresses a broad
range of issues related to direct broadcasting. The lack of consensus in some way
undermined the possibility for such a resolution to be considered as having some
normative value, for instance to be the expression of the acceptance of these principles
as law (opinio iuris communis). Some of the principles enshrined in the document have
a universal recognition. During the discussions, no objection arose on the applicability
of international law to space activities, the enjoyment of the benefits for such activities,
the promotion of international cooperation, or the promotion of free dissemination and
mutual exchange of information. On the contrary, other principles were highly debated,
such as the compatibility between broadcasting services and nonintervention in internal
affairs; the responsibility of states for broadcasting activities; and the duty to inform,
consult, or reach a prior agreement between the state that transmits and the state that
receives. However, the evaluation of the legal status of the principles should be done on
a case-by-case basis. Furthermore, whether such principles can properly address the
new context of space activities, which has profoundly changed since 1982, is
questionable.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Resolution No. 37/92 was adopted by a vote of 108 to 13, with 13 abstentions. The
United States and other Western states voted against or abstained, while the USSR,
Eastern, and third world states voted in favor. This document perfectly reflects the
political situation of the Cold War, the accusation of cultural imperialism of the
developing states against the developed states, and the international debate that
originated during the 1970s related to the new international economic order, with the
appendix of the New World Information and Communication Order. At the time, some
authors remarked that if the new economic order meant eliminating situations of
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 35
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
inequality and reorganizing the world market in such a way as to enable all countries to
develop by making optimal use of their natural and human resources—if it represented
the economic complement of full independency—then it was applicable to the
information order too (Jakhu, 1981).
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The subsequent declarations, adopted by consensus, reflect the compromise between
the United States and the USSR on the one side and takes into account the needs and
interests of developing states on the other side. In this sense, Resolution No. 41/65, the
Principles Relating to Remote Sensing of the Earth from Outer Space, provides that
remote sensing activities shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all
countries, irrespective of their degree of economic, social, or scientific and technological
development, and taking into particular consideration the needs of developing countries
(Principle II). Moreover, according to Principle XII, as soon as the primary data and the
processed data concerning the territory under its jurisdiction are produced, the sensed
state shall have access to them on a nondiscriminatory basis and on reasonable cost
terms. The sensed state shall also have access to the available analyzed information
concerning the territory under its jurisdiction in the possession of any state
participating in remote sensing activities on the same basis and terms, particularly
regarding the needs and interests of developing countries.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
In addition, the role of new actors in international relations (e.g., Group of 77) is evident
in the adoption of Resolution No. 51/122 containing the Declaration on International
Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the Benefit and in the
Interest of All States, Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries.
Notwithstanding its nonbinding value, the Declaration provided guidance on how to
structure international cooperation in the exploration and use of outer space and
represented the legal and political background for the Third United Nations Conference
on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in 1999 (Hobe et al., 2015).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The mentioned treaties and declarations, together with general international law,
constitute the international corpus iuris applicable to space activities. These rules are
the result of an international society and of geopolitical dynamics that have profoundly
changed. Almost all of these legal instruments reproduce the tensions of the
international relations within the Cold War and represent a compromise between
different visions (United States/URSS, spacefaring states/emerging spacefaring states,
developed countries/developing countries) to protect a common interest: the peaceful
use of outer space.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The space treaties and declarations of principles, elaborated and adopted in the context
of the UN, perfectly fit the characteristics of the first and second evolutionary phases of
activities of the COPUOS. During the third phase, important legal acts have been
adopted, such as the Recommendations on Enhancing the Practice of States and
International Intergovernmental Organisations in Registering Space Objects, endorsed
by the UN General Assembly Resolution No. 62/101 of December 17, 2007, and the
Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful
Uses of Outer Space, endorsed by UN General Assembly Resolution No. 62/217 of
December 22, 2007 (Marchisio, 2013).
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 36
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
In this sense, such regulatory frameworks aim at providing a regime for authorization
and control of space activities, establishing a national register for the registration of
objects launched into outer space, and defining procedures for compensation of
damages caused to third parties. Legislation could define other particular aspects
relevant for space activities, such as forms of compulsory insurance schemes to cover
risks and potential damages; guarantees of environmental protection and debris
mitigation and removal; standards to guarantee the safety of activities; export control of
sensitive technologies; forms of incentives and derogation regarding the procedure for
authorization; protection of intellectual property rights; transfer of ownership of an
object already in orbit; and commercial activities, as in the case of small satellites,
suborbital flights, or the exploitation of resources from asteroids.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The analysis of national regulatory frameworks shows two main categories of national
acts. On the one side, states have adopted organic regulatory frameworks that, with
different nuances, regulate all the possible issues of space activities; on the other side,
states that have not adopted organic legal acts have preferred to enact one or more
regulatory instruments to regulate specific activities to be conducted in outer space.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The issues previously described are mainly regulated by a growing number of national
acts, adopted to regulate space activities on an internal level. Since the beginning of
space activities, many states have enacted national space regulatory frameworks but,
after the end of the United States–USSR competition, there was an exponential growth
of such provisions (Freeland, 2012; Hobe, Schmidt-Tedd, & Schrogl, 2006; Jakhu, 2010;
Marboe, 2015; von der Dunk, 2011). National space legislation presents both pros and
cons. The advantage to adopting national legal provisions is that they are detailed and
define specific conducts. The disadvantage is that such regulations do not exist in every
state. Moreover, the same concept could be differently interpreted due to specific
national interests. Indeed, such national regulations present different contents and
characters but have a common element: they are largely inspired by the general
principles contained in international treaties on space activities.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
From International Rules to National Legislation
Space activities are increasingly relevant for the well-being of humankind. Many
services provided by public and private companies, such as satellite broadcasting,
weather forecasts, or satellite navigation, have a strong socioeconomic impact. In
addition, the protection of the environment in outer space has become a central theme
in the international debate, with a focus on mitigation and removal of space debris. The
cited trend concerning private activities is not a novelty in the space sector, but,
compared to a few years ago, there are many more actors conducting activities in outer
space (Hobe, 2010). The growing involvement of private actors in space activities has
led to new forms of marketing of goods and services that have prompted regulation,
especially at the national level. This does not exclude that, at the international level, the
states have full responsibility for the activities carried out in outer space and for the
damages deriving from them.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 37
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
From an institutional point of view, states conducting space activities have created
institutional entities to support their space programs. These bodies can assume different
legal forms, such as agencies, secretariats, or offices. Following the end of the Cold War,
many states created their own space-dedicated bodies, mainly national space agencies.
The proliferation of space agencies is a direct effect of the new geopolitical context
(Peter, 2006). This trend of institutionalization of space actors is an ongoing process,
and it is complemented by a proliferation of private entities that conduct space activities
such as, for example, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Space, One Space, Virgin Galactic,
and Planetary Resources.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Furthermore, the end of the Cold War busted the regionalization of space cooperation,
begun in Europe during the 1970s, with the creation of the European Space Agency
(ESA). The ESA is an international organization with 22 member states, established in
1975 with the merging of the European Space Research Organisation with the European
Launcher Development Organisation. The purposes of the ESA are to provide for and to
promote, for exclusively peaceful purposes, cooperation among European countries in
space research and technology and their space applications, with a view to use such
information for scientific purposes and for operational space applications systems: by
elaborating and implementing a long-term European space policy; recommending space
objectives to the member states and managing the policies of the member states with
respect to other national and international organizations and institutions; elaborating
and implementing activities and programs in the space field; coordinating the European
space program and national programs and progressively integrating the latter into the
European space program; and elaborating and implementing the industrial policy
appropriate to its program and recommending a coherent industrial policy to the
member states (ESA Convention, 1975, Art. II).
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The ESA is an example of an operational international organization for space activities
and represents a successful working model for scientific, technological, and political
cooperation in space at a regional level. Based on this model, the regionalization of
space cooperation was later complemented by the creation of the Asia-Pacific Space
Cooperation Organization in 2005 and by other regional institutional initiatives such as
the Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum, the proposal to establish an African
space agency within the context of the African Union.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The Future of Outer Space Law and Geopolitics
Geopolitical aspects of international relations have always been dynamic elements,
which evolve rapidly over time. As space policies and programs are an important part of
the politics of power and of the international prestige of a state, it can be expected that
space activities will also influence the broader geopolitical context as well as the
definition and adoption of further legal provisions. The previously described evolution,
along with technological changes, poses political challenges to the actors involved in the
space arena and creates a competitive geopolitical situation in which states aim at
protecting their national interests in outer space. In this context, international space
governance plays a fundamental role in bringing together national interests toward a
collective interest in protecting and promoting space activities for the benefit of
humankind and with due regard to the corresponding interests of all states.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 38
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Space regulations and governance are indeed important and interrelated concepts. As
Marchisio (2018, p. 57) specifies, there are two different level of governance:
[f]irstly, there is a normative or substantial level of governance, through space law as a
corpus of rules and key legal principles that address behaviours in outer space; secondly,
we have a structural level of governance, an institutional framework capable of applying,
revising if necessary, adapting the rules, and monitor their compliance.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Notwithstanding these issues, the ideals surrounding fundamental international space
obligations are shared by all spacefaring states. Moreover, even if adopted in the past,
these obligations carry out a long-term perspective that could respond to current and
future challenges (Freeland, 2017). Furthermore, Article III of the OST, and its openness
to general international law and the UN Charter, have granted the application of
relevant provisions of other areas of international law to space activities. Nevertheless,
the adoption of agreed ad hoc legal regulatory frameworks would represent the best
option to respond to specific needs.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The international legal regime previously described has been created within a relatively
short time period, and it is rooted in the era of Cold War. Such principles and rules have
been complemented with national regulatory frameworks. These national rules can
“easily” be adapted through amendment procedures or with the enactment of a new
legislation in order to respond to new exigencies and needs. On the other hand,
international obligations enshrined in multilateral agreements must undergo “hard
procedures,” involving the consensus of all parties, to be amended. In this context,
declarations of principles are important instruments for the interpretation of the
obligations proposed by treaties and for the progressive development of international
law, even if their legal nature is nonbinding (Arangio-Ruiz, 1972). However, they do not
provide an authentic interpretation of the obligations, nor do they create general rules.
Such declarations represent the opinion iuris of the states, while consistent practice will
be needed to create a customary rule. A proper interpretation of the obligations of
treaties would be surely provided by international courts and tribunals, but there are no
pending cases, nor previous decisions, issued on the interpretation of provisions
contained in the UN space treaties.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
At the institutional level, a dedicated international organization or body with a solid
mandate for applying, revising, adapting, and monitoring the compliance of the rules
does not exist. The COPUOS is the main international forum for discussing space affairs,
and during the years its work has produced excellent results in law-making, while it
lacks the legal authority for monitoring and enforcing the rules. In this regard, it is
important to recall that, given the equality between the primary members of the
international community, such an enforcing body would not be required as each state
could react with countermeasures or settle the dispute through pacific means, or the UN
Security Council could intervene in matters or situations that represent a threat to peace,
breach of peace, or act of aggression. However, a body that could give authentic and
official interpretations of the treaties and address violations of obligations even before
the arising of a dispute is still needed.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 39
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Furthermore, several international initiatives aim at creating specific legal regimes,
mainly to address safety, security, and sustainability of space activities (Marchisio,
2015). Most of them are nonbinding in nature, but their value, in some cases, goes far
beyond the legal status. Among these initiatives, there are some examples of the design
of institutional mechanisms for the monitoring of the implementation of the provisions
of the legal instrument.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The second example is the Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons
in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT),
proposed in 2008 by Russia and China and revised in 2014. Article VI of the Draft
PPWT provides that, to promote the implementation of the purposes and provisions of
the Treaty, the state parties shall establish the Executive Organization of the Treaty,
which will consider matters related to the operation and implementation of the Treaty;
receive for consideration inquiries by a state party or a group of states parties related to
an alleged violation of the Treaty; organize and conduct consultations with the state
parties in order to address the situation related to the alleged violation of the Treaty;
refer the dispute to the UN General Assembly or the UN Security Council if the problem
related to the alleged violation of the Treaty remains unresolved; organize and hold
meetings to discuss and accept the proposed amendments to the Treaty; develop
procedures for collective data sharing and information analysis; collect and distribute
information provided as part of transparency and confidence-building measures; receive
notifications on the accession of new states to the Treaty and submit them to the
secretary-general of the UN; and consider, upon agreement with the state parties, other
procedural and substantive matters. This kind of proposal highlights the paramount
importance of creating institutional bodies tasked with monitoring and facilitating the
implementation of legal provisions as well as the fundamental connection between legal
and institutional dimensions of governance, which remains an open issue in the
international legal debate concerning regulation of space activities.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
References
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The first example is the Draft International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities.
The 2007 proposal by the European Union of a draft code on space activities was
conceived as a reaction to the UN General Assembly Resolution No 61/75 of December 6,
2006, which called for member states to submit proposals on transparency and
confidence-building measures within the context of prevention of an arms race in outer
space. According to the proposal, an annual Meeting of the Subscribing States of the
Code would be called to define, review, and further develop the commitments and
facilitate their implementation. Furthermore, the Code foresees the designation of a
Central Point of Contact tasked with receiving and communicating notifications of new
subscriptions, facilitating information exchange, serving as secretariat at the meetings,
maintaining an electronic database and communications system, and exercising
organizational functions.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. December 18, 1979. 1363 U.N.T.S. 3.
Agreement on the Rescue of Astronauts, the Return of Astronauts and the Return of Objects Launched into Outer Space. April 22, 1968. 672 U.N.T.S. 119.
Al Rodhan, N. (2012). Meta-geopolitics of outer space: An analysis of space power, security and governance. New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan.
Arangio-Ruiz, G. (1972). The normative role of the General Assembly of the United Nations and the Declaration of Principles of Friendly Relations. Recueil des Cours de
l’Académie de Droit International, 137, 419–742.
Christol, C. Q. (1982). The modern international law of outer space. New York, NY: Pergamon.
Christol, C. Q. (1985). Prospects for an international regime for direct television broadcasting. International Comparative Law Quarterly, 34, 142–158.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 40
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Clarke, A. C. (1959). The exploration of space. New York, NY: Harper.
Convention for the Establishment of the European Space Agency. (CSE/CS(73)19, rev.7). May 30, 1975.
Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects. September 2, 1972. 961 U.N.T.S. 187.
Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space. November 12, 1974. 1023 U.N.T.S. 15.
Deudney, D. (2002), Geopolitics as theory: Historical security materialism. European Journal of International Relations, 6, 77–100.
Dolman, E. C. (1999). Geostrategy in the space age: An astropolitical analysis. Journal of Strategic Studies, 22, 83–106.
Dolman, E. C. (2002). Astropolitik: Classical geopolitics in the space age. London, U.K.: Frank Cass.
Draft International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities, March 31, 2014.
Draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space, the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects. June 16, 2014.
Freeland, S. (2012). The development of national space law. In S. Freeland, R. Popova, & S. Passy (Eds.), Contemporary issues for national and international space law:
Commentary and source materials (pp. 12–35). Sofia, Bulgaria: AMG Publishing.
Freeland, S. (2017). International law and the exploration and use of outer space. In M. Ambrus, R. Rayfuse, & W. Werner. (Eds.), Risk and the regulation of uncertainty in
international law (pp. 77–96). Oxford, U.K.: Oxford University Press.
Frutkin, A. W. (1965). International cooperation in space. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Gabrynowicz, J. I. (2004). Space law: Its Cold War origins and challenges in the era of globalization. Suffolk University Law Review, 37, 1041–1053.
Havercroft, J., & Duvall, R. D. (2009). Critical astropolitics: The geopolitics of space control and the transformation of state sovereignty. In N. Bormann & M. Sheehan. (Eds.),
Securing outer space: International relations theory and the politics of space (pp. 42–58). London, U.K.: Routledge.
Hays, P. L., & Lutes, C. D. (2007). Towards a theory of space power. Space Policy, 23, 206–209.
Hibbs, A. R. (1966). Space man versus space machine. In L. M. Hirsch (Ed.), Man and space: A controlled research reader (pp. 87–100). New York, NY: Pitman.
Hobe, S. (2010). The impact of new developments on international space law (new actors, commercialisation, privatisation, increase in the number of “space-faring nations”).
Uniform Law Review, 15, 869–881.
Hobe, S., Schmidt-Tedd, B., & Schrogl, K.-U. (Eds.). (2006). Project 2001 Plus: Global and European challenges for air and space law at the edge of the 21st century. Cologne,
Germany: Carl Heymanns.
Hobe, S., Schmidt-Tedd, B., & Schrogl, K.-U. (Eds.). (2009). Cologne commentary on space law, Vol. 1. Cologne, Germany: Carl Heymanns.
Hobe, S., Schmidt-Tedd, B., & Schrogl, K.-U. (Eds.). (2013). Cologne commentary on space law, Vol. 2. Cologne, Germany: Carl Heymanns.
Hobe, S., Schmidt-Tedd, B., & Schrogl, K.-U. (Eds.). (2015). Cologne commentary on space law, Vol. 3. Cologne, Germany: Carl Heymanns.
International Court of Justice. (1996). Legality of the threat or use of nuclear weapons, advisory opinion. ICJ Reports, 1996, 226–267.
Jakhu, R. S. (1981). Direct broadcasting via satellite and new information order. Syracuse Journal of International Law and Commerce, 8, 375–390.
Jakhu, R. S. (Ed.). (2010). National regulation of space activities. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.
Jenks, C. W. (1965). Space law. London, U.K.: Stevens.
Jervis, R. (1976). Perception and misperception in international politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Kash, D. (1967). The politics of space cooperation. Lafayette, IN: Purdue University Studies.
Kopal, V. (1988). The role of United Nations Declarations of Principles in the progressive development of space law. Journal of Space Law, 16, 5–20.
Lachs, M. (1964). The international law of outer space. Recueil des Cours de l’Académie de Droit International, 113, 1–115.
Mackinder, H. J. (1904). The geographical pivot of history. The Geographical Journal, 23, 421–444.
Marboe, I. (2015). National space legislation. In F. von der Dunk & F. Tronchetti (Eds.), Handbook on space law (pp. 127–204). Cheltenham, U.K.: Edward Elgar.
Marboe, I. (Ed.). (2012). Soft law in outer space: The function of non-binding norms in international space law. Cologne, Germany: Böhlau.
Marchisio, S. (2004). The 1986 United Nations principles on remote sensing: A critical assessment. In Studi di diritto internazionale in onore di Gaetano Arangio-Ruiz (pp.
1311–1340). Napoli, Italia: Editoriale Scientifica.
Marchisio, S. (2005). The evolutionary stages of the legal subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). Journal of Space Law,
31, 219–242.
Marchisio, S. (2013). Nandasiri Jasentulyana keynote lecture: The Draft Code of Conduct in Outer Space Activities. In Proceedings of the International Institute for Space Law
(Vol. 55, pp. 3–23). The Hague, The Netherlands: Eleven International.
Marchisio, S. (2015). Security in space: Issues at stake. Space Policy, 33, 67–69.
Marchisio, S. (2018). Setting the scene: space law and governance. Ordine internazionale e diritti umani—Gli speciali, 1, 55–65.
Moltz, J. (2011). The politics of space security: Strategic restraint and the pursuit of national interests. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Morgenthau, H. J. (1960). Politics among nations: the struggle for power and peace. New York, NY: Knopf.
Neustadt R. E., & May, E. R. (1986). Thinking in time: The uses of history for decision-makers. New York, NY: Free Press.
Peter, N. (2006). The changing geopolitics of space activities. Space Policy, 37, 145–153.
Spykman, N. J. (1944). The geography of peace. New York, NY: Harcourt.
Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water. August 5, 1963, 480 U.N.T.S. 43.
Treaty Between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. January 3, 1993.
Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. May 26, 1972.
Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, Including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies. October 10, 1967, 610 U.N.T.S.
205.
United Nations General Assembly. (1958, December 13). Resolution 1348 (XIII): Question of the Peaceful Use of Outer Space.
United Nations General Assembly. (1959, December 12). Resolution 1472 (XIV): International Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space.
United Nations General Assembly. (1963, December 13). Resolution 1962 (XVIII): Declaration of Legal Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of
Outer Space.
United Nations General Assembly. (1982, December 10). Resolution 37/92: The Principles Governing the Use by States of Artificial Earth Satellites for International Direct
Television Broadcasting.
United Nations General Assembly. (1986, December 3). Resolution 41/65: Principles Relating to Remote Sensing of the Earth from Outer Space.
United Nations General Assembly. (1992, December 14). Resolution 47/68: The Principles Relevant to the Use of Nuclear Power Sources in Outer Space.
United Nations General Assembly. (1996, December 13). Resolution 51/122: Declaration on the International Cooperation in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space for the
Benefit and in the Interest of All States, Taking into Particular Account the Needs of Developing Countries.
United Nations General Assembly. (2006, December 6). Resolution 61/75: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures in Outer Space Activities.
United Nations General Assembly. (2007, December 17). Resolution 62/101: Recommendations on Enhancing the Practice of States and International Intergovernmental
Organizations in Registering Space Objects.
United Nations General Assembly. (2007, December 22). Resolution 62/217: Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the United Nations Committee for the Peaceful Uses of Outer
Space.
United States Senate, Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness. (2017, May 23). Reopening the American Frontier: Exploring How the Outer Space Treaty Will
Impact American Commerce and Settlement in Space.
von Bencke, M. J. (1997). The politics of space: A history of US-Soviet/Russian competition. Boulder, CO: Westview.
von der Dunk, F. G. (Ed.). (2011). National space legislation in Europe: Issues of authorization of private space activities in the light of developments in European space
cooperation. Leiden, The Netherlands: Martinus Nijhoff.
York, H. F. (1970). Making weapons, talking peace: A physicist’s odyssey from Hiroshima to Geneva. New York, NY: Basic Books.
Zhukov, G. P. (1978). Tendances contemporaines du développement du droit spatial international. Recueil des Cours de l’Académie de Droit International, 161, 229–328.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 41
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 42
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
3. Pro Arguments
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
3.1 Space Exploration Unifies and Drives Development
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“Space exploration is a bipartisan imperative that benefits all” Dittmar, Mary Lynee. The
Hill. November 1, 2020 https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/523795space-exploration-is-a-bipartisan-imperative-that-benefits-all
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Much of these debates will focus on the political
implications of a space race. While con’s are likely to argue that it would divide China
and the US, pro’s may argue that the offset in domestic stability and technological
development outweigh. This article lays out how space funding in the US benefits us on
earth, politically and scientifically.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Space exploration and development are and have always been a bipartisan initiative that
is vitally important to America. Today, space impacts every facet of 21st century life.
Business, governance, security, education, agriculture, manufacturing, health care,
communication and many other sectors all rely on space-based infrastructure and
technology. These in turn rely on government programs in space exploration and
science.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
We explore outward to discover inward. Over the decades, investments in NASA
research have unlocked the secrets of the universe and, in the process, have improved
life on Earth.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
There is strong bipartisan support for the path that NASA is on. The Space Launch
System (SLS) rocket, the Orion crewed spacecraft, the James Webb Space Telescope,
robotic missions to distant worlds and the continuing human presence on the
International Space Station have created an evolving foundation for a new age of science,
exploration and commerce.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
For example, we have conducted missions to every planet in our solar system and
examined many of their moons. “Water worlds” such as Europa and Enceladus, Mars
with its large salty seas below the surface, and exoplanets, can teach us about water
cycles on distant worlds as well as our own. In turn, the knowledge we are acquiring
from exploration of these and other planetary bodies give us clues about the future of
our own planet as we face the growing crisis of climate change.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Humans in deep space inspire and drive discovery and new knowledge. The systems
under development to return Americans to deep space will forge the path back to the
Moon and onto Mars. Some of these include the Orion crewed spacecraft, the Space
Launch System (SLS) rocket, the Exploration Ground Systems that support them and
their missions, the Human Landing System(s) and the lunar Gateway. These missions
are scheduled to start next year and to progress in rapid fashion thereafter. Together,
these programs have sustained thousands of jobs from suppliers in all 50 states and
Puerto Rico, supporting economic recovery and the benefits that NASA Exploration
brings to addressing planetary concerns and issues here on Earth, including climate
change.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 43
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Innovation is the hallmark of space exploration. Building upon the value created by
government programs, entrepreneurial firms are fully engaged; developing capabilities
to land small payloads on the lunar surface while also scaling up to large systems for
lunar landing and habitation. These efforts work hand-in-hand with our national
programs in exploration and science, advancing technology and increasing the demand
for jobs in sustained career paths. Space exploration and development fuel the growth of
new industries and a vital STEM workforce that we will need to support U.S.
competitiveness and, importantly, to meet key national imperatives in the future — not
only to address the challenge of climate change, but also the pressing needs of cleaner
energy and water, medical care, national security and to drive our economy forward.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
To ensure that the United States continues to prosper and lead in outer space, Congress
and the White House must find a way to stay the course and fully fund the nation’s space
exploration enterprise in balance with other competing policy priorities. The effects of
the COVID-19 pandemic create challenges not faced in our lifetimes. Yet, NASA must
have budget stability to maintain continuity of major programs and mitigate mission
delays. NASA must also have budget stability to capitalize on all of the investments
made over previous decades for the benefit of all.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The global space policy environment is rapidly evolving. Maturing global competition in
space from other nations carries both potential opportunities for partnership and
possible threats to U.S. primacy in space. Returning to the Moon as our next step in
human exploration, together with a strong national commitment to science in low Earth
orbit and in deep space, offers us the promise of a next great Space Age — a rejuvenation
and refocus of the future of space exploration, science and commerce that will become
the legacy of a future administration and Congress.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Mary Lynne Dittmar is a member of the National Space Council Users’ Advisory
Group (UAG), a member of the FAA Commercial Space Transportation Advisory
Committee (COMSTAC), a member of the National Academies Space Studies Board
(SSB) and the president and CEO of the Coalition for Deep Space Exploration, a nonlobbying industry association supporting NASA’s programs in human space
exploration and science.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 44
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
3.2 A Space Race is a Peaceful Avenue for Competition
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“The Space Race and Peaceful Competition” Thompson, Tiffany. The Nixon Foundation.
October 20, 2016. https://www.nixonfoundation.org/2016/10/space-race-peacefulcompetition/
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Despite all of the focus on how space competition could
escalate, empirically space competition is very peaceful. It was one of the few avenues
that the two nations avoided militarizing, cooperated, and drafted international law
over. This piece explains the history of how the Space Race was a peaceful and
productive competition.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
President Nixon understood that the pursuit of scientific innovation and exploration
tended to eclipse larger geopolitical conflicts. Breakthroughs in science, technology, and
medicine are not restricted by national boundaries, and in the Summer of 1969, the
world celebrated the achievements of three American astronauts and the NASA
engineers who made it all possible.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The Space Race demonstrated that the United States and Soviet Union could partake in
peaceful competition and cooperation. From Sputnik to the lunar landings, the Space
Race represented one of the more electrifying aspects of the Cold War: the United States
and the Soviet Union battling for dominance of the moon and stars. On July 21, 1969,
the Space Race reached its historic zenith as Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon and
delivered his famous remarks. Days later, President Nixon greeted the three astronauts
shortly after splashdown in the Pacific Ocean. Welcoming them back to Earth, President
Nixon emphasized that “as a result of what you have done, the world has never been
closer together before.”
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The Space Race was not destined to be a clash of rival superpowers from the beginning.
Rather, throughout the Space Race the U.S. sought to cooperate with the Soviet Union.
In 1959, NASA offered to help the Soviet Academy of Sciences track manned space
flights. In 1962, President Kennedy proposed joint Soviet-American exploration of the
moon, an offer President Johnson later reiterated. During his time as President,
Johnson consistently recommended exchanges of scientific information, and he even
encouraged NASA to invite Soviet representatives to the launch of Gemini VI.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The Soviets typically rejected American proposals for cooperation in part because the
Soviet Academy of Sciences, and consequently, their space program, was directly linked
to the military. Despite Soviet snubs, President Nixon decided to continue the trend of
encouraging space cooperation. A report compiled by the Nixon Administration in 1970
reflects the reasoning for his decision:
ＬＣ
“Cooperation with the Soviet Union in space matters is desirable. Such cooperation, if it
involved substantive scientific and technical content, could be useful intrinsically as well
as from the viewpoint of raising the level of political confidence between ourselves and
the Soviets and of easing international tensions.”
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 45
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 46
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
American astronauts and Soviet cosmonauts would not meet in space until 1975. The
Apollo-Soyuz Test Project was the first joint space flight between the leaders in space
exploration, symbolizing the end of the Space Race, and the era of détente.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Possibilities for cooperation existed in terms of unmanned space research, manned
flight, bilateral exchanges of information and experts, and coordinated work regarding
the practical applications of space technology. Furthermore, Nixon, like Kennedy and
Johnson before him, believed that cooperation in space between the United States and
the Soviet Union held the potential for improving the state of relations between the two
competitors.
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
3.3 A Space Race Drives Unprecedented Resources to
Research and Development
“Investment in Space Race Paid Scientific, Political Dividends” Sehlstedt, Albert Jr. The
Baltimore Sun. July 10, 1994. https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1994-0710-1994191133-story.html
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: This is an older article, but it clearly documents a specific
point: a space race drives scientific investment. Using history as a starting point will
benefit many Pro teams, as the US-USSR Space Race was peaceful and led to
substantial scientific development.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
On July 20, the United States will observe the 25th anniversary of that costly,
sometimes controversial and genuinely astonishing accomplishment, the first landing of
men on the moon in Apollo 11.
It was the denouement of an international drama between the two Cold War
superpowers that eschewed firing missiles at each other but were launching spacecraft
toward the moon and beyond to strut their stuff on an international stage.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Vodka flowed with the news of the satellite, named Sputnik, and the Americans
extended their congratulations. But as time passed it became apparent that many other
Americans were not in a congratulatory mood. Rather, they asked: How could "they"
have beaten "us" at our own game -- technology.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The drama began in 1957. On an October evening in Washington, Russian and American
scientists were attending a party at the Soviet Embassy when news reports from Moscow
announced that the Soviet Union had launched the first artificial satellite to orbit of the
Earth.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The space race was under way.
The United States' post-Sputnik self-deprecation became almost frantic. Instant experts
blamed schools for not emphasizing science and math. Others charged that materialism
somehow had to do with the nation's fall from leadership.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
"No event since Pearl Harbor set off such repercussions in public life," wrote Walter A.
McDougall in ". . . the Heavens and the Earth -- A Political History of the Space Age"
(Basic Books Inc.), which won the 1986 Pulitzer Prize for history.
ＬＣ
The impetus of Sputnik (Russian for traveling companion) was nowhere more intense
than in the U.S. Congress, where success in space ventures became a consuming issue.
The lawmakers created the National Aeronautics and Space Administration,
consolidating some smaller government groups expert in rocketry and aeronautics.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 47
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Meanwhile, U.S. rocketry had gained self-respect by launching FTC its own satellite Jan.
31, 1958, but it seemed apparent to the citizenry that their country was still No. 2.
Then, the 1960 elections brought a new president to the White Housewho seemed more
eager to best the Russians than his predecessor, Dwight D. Eisenhower, had been.
John F. Kennedy was soon asking his advisers: "Is there any place we can catch them?
Can we put a man on the moon before them?"
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Perhaps by the end of the decade, his advisers thought.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
In May 1961, Kennedy announced to Congress that the nation would attempt to send a
man to the moon and return him safely to Earth before the end of 1969.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
The cost of the moon landing program in 1960s dollars was $25 billion, which translates
to approximately $110 billion today.
ＬＣ
The scientific and technological returns from the Apollo program and other space
endeavors of that period were impressive and financially rewarding to the aerospace
industry and research institutions.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
Motel keepers in central Florida also prospered (an estimated 700,000 people lined the
beaches and highways to watch the liftoff of Apollo 11). The boost to morale when the
Vietnam War had split the nation grievously was substantial.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
But was the prize worth the game?
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
"The moon race was a Cold War undertaking that should be evaluated primarily in
foreign policy terms," John M. Logsdon, director of the Space Policy Institute at George
Washington University, and Alain Dupas, a policy strategist for the French space agency,
write in the June issue of Scientific American.
"On these grounds it was an important victory. The Apollo program undoubtedly aided
America's global quest for political and military leadership. . . . The lunar landing
constituted a persuasive demonstration of the national will and technological capability
for the U.S.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
"Likewise, the failure of the Soviet lunar program was more than a public relations
defeat . . . and it tarnished the image of socialist competence and diminished Soviet
standing in world affairs."
ＬＣ
Scientifically, the Apollo program's exploration of the moon was of immense importance
to geologists and those in the allied sciences. They confirmed that the age of the moon
was approximately 4.5 billion years and that it apparently grew from an enormous
object that hit the Earth eons ago and then went into an orbit around this planet.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 48
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
In six trips to the moon, Apollo astronauts brought back more than 800 pounds of rocks,
including basalts (born of molten material like lava) and compacted fragments of
breccias, rocks formed from several kinds of material.
Their work enabled scientists to gather new information about the internal structure of
the moon and to measure more precisely distances between the Earth and the moon.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The billions spent on space flight have also brought beneficial engineering and scientific
"spinoffs." Among them:
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
* Biomedical instrumentation, enabling doctors at city hospitals to communicate with
medical personnel helping people in remote areas.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
* Fuel cell technology that uses oxygen and hydrogen to produce potable water and
electricity.
* High-strength, anti-flammability fabrics used for spacesuits and backpacks. Kevlar is
an example.
ＬＣ
* Inertial guidance systems, essential to the navigation of spacecraft, which are now
standard equipment in commercial aviation.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
The nation's space programs also have led to the establishment, with government
assistance, of major scientific research projects leading universities in such fields as
lunar and planetary studies, plasma physics (the reaction of materials at extremely high
temperatures), the atmospheric sciences, and astronomy.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
* Telemetry (measuring from afar) that is used on spacecraft for such tasks as tracking
hurricanes.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
In a broader sense, the moon landings and unmanned flights to the planets turned the
eyes of countless people in the direction ++ of the heavens as never before.
When, for instance, people saw on their television screens the Apollo astronauts -people like themselves -- walking on another spherical body in the sky, their viewpoints
probably changed forever. The moon became a real place, not just a romantic
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
decoration in the night.
But there are places at unimaginable distances, with secrets yet to be discovered, that
can be sought at far less cost than #F spaceships equipped for human habitation.
ＬＣ
In May, for example, scientists reported that the $1.5 billion Hubble Space Telescope
had found a real "black hole," an object 50 million light years away with such a powerful
pull of gravity that not even light can escape its clutch.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 49
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 50
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
This puzzle is examined philosophically at the conclusion of the space age history by Dr.
McDougall, professor of history at the University of Pennsylvania.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
He asks: "Can the scientific knowledge or new perspectives gleaned from space
exploration spawn a higher consciousness or wisdom and prepare a new, sublime
culture?"
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
The author provides some possible answers and quotes the polar explorer Fridjof
Nansen: "It is therefore to no purpose to discuss the uses of knowledge -- man wants to
know, and when he ceases to do so he is no longer man."
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
More to the point, perhaps, is a comment from Albert Einstein, who once explained his
abiding curiosity about the nature of all we behold in nine words: "I want to know how
God made the world."
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Today, there remains a fundamental question that bedevils brilliant astronomers such
as Allan Sandage, whose accomplishments in cosmology, the study of the universe, stem
in part from his query: "What is man's place in the universe?"
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 51
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
4. Con Arguments
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
4.1 Space Militarization
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“How is China Weaponizing Outer Space” Vasani, Harsh. Postgraduate Researcher at
the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University. January
19, 2017. The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/how-china-is-weaponizingouter-space/
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Winning how the US and China perceive each other will
be key to controlling the link level on this topic. How each nation views the other will
dictate how they act and react. Vasani outlines how the two nations could act
competitively and what the technical capabilities of each are regarding space warfare.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
In the highly “informatized” and technologically advanced battles that characterize the
21st century, outer space will play a dominant role. Space assets direct military
operations and help in making crucial battleground decisions. In this regard, attempts
to weaponize space and command this sphere are to be expected from great powers. The
United States and USSR started weaponizing space in the in the 1950s and 1960s
respectively, and China is now following suit.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The weaponization of space includes placing weapons in outer space or on heavenly
bodies as well as creating weapons that will transit outer space or simply travel from
Earth to attack or destroy targets in space. Examples include the placing of orbital or
suborbital satellites with the intention of attacking enemy satellites, using ground-based
direct ascent missiles to attack space assets, jamming signals sent from enemy satellites,
using lasers to incapacitate enemy satellites, plasma attacks, orbital ballistic missiles,
and satellite attacks on Earth targets. These can be further classified into direct-energy
and kinetic-energy weapons.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
What Is the “Weaponization” of Space?
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The weaponization of space is different from the militarization of space, which includes
using space-based assets for C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers,
Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance). The militarization of space assists
armies on the conventional battlefield, whereas via the weaponization of space, outer
space itself emerges as the battleground, sometimes referred to as the “fourth frontier of
war.”
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Today’s space-faring nations use their Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Systems, which
include long-range ICBMs, as an auxiliary system capable of destroying space-based
assets. The difference between BMD and ASATs lies mainly in the software and control
algorithms used to detect, track, and home in on a satellite as compared to a warhead.
China has been making impressive headway in its ICBM program and in theory, these
ICBMs can target U.S. Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) satellites.
There have been debates among scholars on the utility of BMD system as ASAT (AntiSatellite) weapons. However, Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation asserts
that there is no meaningful difference between a midcourse ballistic missile defense
system and a hit-to-kill ASAT weapon.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 52
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Weeden argues that “because midcourse ballistic missile systems are intended to
destroy warheads traveling at speeds and altitudes comparable to those of satellites, all
midcourse ballistic missile defense systems have inherent ASAT capabilities.” He asserts
that these BMD systems are more effective as anti-satellite weapons than as missile
defense systems, since most satellites are easier to detect, track, and target than
warheads, which are likely to be accompanied with penetration aids designed to confuse
a potential defense. The difference between BMD and ASATs lies mainly in the software
and control algorithms used to detect, track, and home in on a satellite as compared to a
warhead.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Washington believes that underlying the various civilian aspects of China’s space
program is an active military component. A 2015 report prepared by the U.S.
Department of Defense suggests that China has invested in advanced space capabilities,
with particular emphasis on “satellite communication (SATCOM), intelligence,
surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), satellite navigation (SATNAV), and meteorology,
as well as manned, unmanned, and interplanetary space exploration.” The report claims
that along with its civilian space program, China continues to develop a variety of
capabilities designed to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by adversaries
during a crisis or conflict, including the “development of directed-energy weapons and
satellite jammers.”
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
China’s Space Program
In June 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to astronauts at the launch of the
Shenzhou X manned mission and said that China will take bigger steps in space
exploration in pursuit of its “space dream.” He acknowledged that the space dream is
part of the dream to make China stronger. “With the development of space programs,
Chinese people will take bigger strides to explore further into space,” he said. In another
occasion, on April 24, 2016, marking China’s first “space day,” the president asked
scientists to help realize China’s dream of becoming a global space giant. In both the
instances, the Chinese president seemed to have benign intentions behind China’s space
modernization and ambitions; however, open source literature available on China’s
space dreams points out that the Chinese strategic community sees space as the ultimate
high ground, the key to military success on the terrestrial battlefield.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
A report prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission states
that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recognizes that in a time of war it must deny
enemies the use of strategic information about troop and ship movements, incoming
missiles, navigation, communication, etc, along with depriving its opponents the use of
C4ISR systems. The report goes on to state that “Chinese analysts assess that the
employment of space-based C4ISR capabilities by potential adversaries, especially the
United States, requires the PLA to develop capabilities to attack space systems. Based on
this assessment, Chinese analysts surmise that the loss of critical sensor and
communications capabilities could imperil the U.S. military’s ability to achieve victory
or to achieve victory with minimal casualties.”
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 53
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
There is considerable merit in Washington’s claims about the dual-use nature of China’s
space program. For instance, Colonel Li Daguang, writing in his book Space War
published by National Defense University in 2001, recommends that the Chinese should
combine military and civilian technology and integrate peacetime and wartime facilities.
His rationale was that space equipment is costly to develop and maintain, hence it is
important to have civil-use technology that can also have military applications.
Evolution of China’s ASAT Weapons Capability
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
A brief survey of recent tests by Beijing confirms that China is rapidly improving its
counter space program and making advances in its anti-satellite systems. China’s first
ASAT test was conducted in May 2005 and its capabilities have come a long way since.
Most notably, a 2007 test destroyed a redundant Feng Yun 1-C weather satellite owned
by China, leaving over 3,000 dangerous pieces of debris in space. The test was
conducted in low Earth orbit (LEO), approximately 800 kilometers above Earth.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Along with direct-ascent ASAT weapons, China is also believed to be developing other
space weapons. In June 2016, China launched the Aolong-1 spacecraft on a Long March
7 rocket. China claims that the Aolong-1 is tasked with cleaning up space junk and
collecting man-made debris in space. However, other reports suggest that the spacecraft,
equipped with a robotic arm, is a dual-use ASAT weapon. The Aolong-1 is believed to be
the first in a series of spacecraft that will be tasked with collecting man-made space
debris. Quoting an unnamed researcher with the National Astronomical Observatories
in Beijing, the South China Morning Post points out that it is unrealistic to remove all
space debris with robots; rather, for the People’s Liberation Army the robot is a
potential ASAT weapon.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
A 2013 test by Beijing involved its new missile, the DN-2 or Dong Neng-2, and the test
was conducted in “nearly geosynchronous orbit,” where most of the United States’ ISR
satellites are located. The direct ascent test, launched from Xichang, reached an altitude
of 18,600 miles. On October 30, 2015, China tested the DN-3 exoatmospheric vehicle,
reported to be able to destroy U.S. satellites. Chinese press reports said the test was a
missile defense interceptor flight test. However, The Washington Free Beacon quotes
unnamed defense officials as saying that the DN-3 is “primarily a direct-ascent missile
designed to ram into satellites and destroy them, even if intelligence assessments hold
that the weapon has some missile defense capabilities.”
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Beijing’s recent space activities indicate that it is developing co-orbital anti-satellite
systems to target U.S. space assets. Co-orbital anti-satellite systems consist of a satellite
“armed with a weapon such as an explosive charge, fragmentation device, kinetic energy
weapon, laser, radio frequency weapon, jammer, or robotic arm.” Besides the “hard-kill”
methods, Beijing is also testing soft-kill methods to incapacitate enemy satellites. For
instance, China has been acquiring a number of foreign and indigenous ground-based
satellite jammers since the mid-2000s. These jammers are designed to disrupt an
adversary’s communications with a satellite by overpowering the signals being sent to or
from it. The PLA can use these jammers to deny an adversary the access to the GPS and
other satellite signals. Directed energy lasers are also a soft-kill method that could be
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 54
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
used in an anti-satellite mission. China has been committing resources to the research
and development for directed energy weapons since the 1990s.
China’s Counterspace Program: Aimed at the U.S.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The Chinese believe that the greatest threat to them comes from the United States. To
counter the United States’ conventional strength and gain strategic parity, Chinese
strategists believe, Beijing will need to strike at the U.S. Achilles heel — Washington’s
over-reliance on satellites for C4ISR. Beijing plans to exploit the vulnerable space
infrastructure of the United States in the case of a war.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
According to a recent RAND report, space and counterspace operations would be
important elements in any armed confrontation between the United States and China.
The transformational warfighting capabilities that U.S. military forces have developed
since the end of the Cold War are largely enabled by “satellite support, and space-based
ISR and communication connectivity would be especially important in the broad
expanses of the Western Pacific theater.”
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
According to Martin France and Richard Adams, however, “The PLA’s development of
ASAT weapons is primarily not a reaction to U.S. space control initiatives. It is driven
instead by very practical considerations of regional security and influence, and the
desire to conduct asymmetric warfare against a superior foe if conflict arises.”
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The PLA’s interest in the use of space for military purposes gained momentum after the
1991 Gulf War, which has been referred to as the “first space war,” and has only
increased since. According to some Chinese analysts, “the U.S. military relies upon
space for 70‒80 percent of its intelligence and 80 percent of its communication.” Some
Chinese writings also attribute an almost omnipotent quality to U.S. space-based
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and conclude that the U.S. receives
exquisite intelligence from these platforms.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
France and Adams believe that Beijing seeks to offset the dominance of U.S.
conventional forces by exploiting their dependence on spaceborne information assets.
China also hopes to guarantee the viability of its nuclear deterrent by holding the critical
space-segment of American missile defense systems at risk. Finally, the Chinese space
program also contributes to the PLA’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities by
providing critical C4ISR support to long-range precision strike weapons and providing
the ability to threaten U.S. space-based assets.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
The DN-2 2013 test jolted Washington and made the United States realize that crucial
national security satellites, parked in geostationary earth orbit, are well within the reach
of Beijing. As a response, Pentagon announced the launch of a “Space War Center” to
counter threats from China and Russia in space, part of a $5 billion boost in space
security spending for the Department of Defense. However, over a year and a half later,
precious little has come of the Center.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 55
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 56
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
The United States, aware of the enormity of the threat, needs to do a lot more to ensure
that space remains a sanctuary instead of turning into a battleground. China and Russia
have been pushing for a debate on a Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS)
treaty, which would ensure that states observe a prohibition on space weaponization.
Russia and China have also submitted a draft treaty to the UN preventing the placement
of weapons in outer space. However, in all likelihood, the United States would not want
an arms-control treaty if it means limiting the U.S. National Missile Defense system
(which has de facto ASAT applications).Washington withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty in 2001 and went on to develop ground and sea-based missile defenses
that can also act as ASAT weapons. So far the biggest boulder to an international treaty
bringing more transparency and arms control to outer space is the United States.
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
4.2 Space Militarization – Continued
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“China aims to weaponize space, says intel community report” Gould, Joe. April 14,
2021. Defense News. https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/04/14/china-aimsto-weaponize-space-says-intel-community-report/
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Con debaters will want to win that a space race increases
militarization of space. The US military typically follows a doctrine of proportional
response, meaning that if they believe that one country is weaponizing space, they will
as well. Con team could take reports like this one from the Office of National
Intelligence as evidence of a space race leading to a space arms race.
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
China is working to weaponize space with an array of capabilities intended to target U.S.
and allied satellites as part of its ambitious plans to displace the U.S. in space, the U.S.
intelligence community warned in its new Global Risk Assessment report.
ＬＣ
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s report says that China’s military, the
People’s Liberation Army, plans to “match or exceed U.S. capabilities in space to gain
the military, economic, and prestige benefits that Washington has accrued from space
leadership.” Those counter-space operations will be “integral to potential military
campaigns by the PLA.”
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Asked about China’s nascent constellation of 138 commercial Earth observation
satellites at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing Wednesday, ODNI Director Avril
Haines affirmed they were part of China’s challenge to American dominance. She
declined to publicly discuss U.S. capabilities.
Ｓ
ＳＤ
The broad-based report also highlights Russia’s space capabilities and overall calls
China “the top threat” to U.S. technological competitiveness.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
“I think there’s just no question, as a general matter, that China is focused on achieving
leadership in space, in fact, as compared to the United States and has been working hard
on a variety of different efforts in this area to try to contest what has been presumed our
leadership,” Haines said.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
Haines told lawmakers the administration is working to help the policy community
understand it supports the new Space Force’s work to maintain American leadership in
space and space’s benefits economically, in communications, intelligence and national
security.
ＬＣ
The rare public disclosures come as champions of Space Force in Congress have said the
government over-classifies information about the threats from space and that the
American public needs to be better informed. House Armed Services Committee’s
ranking member, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., is among them.
The intelligence community projects China will have an operational space station in
low-Earth-orbit between 2022 and 2024, and will continue to conduct exploratory
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 57
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
Supplemental Research Packet | 58
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
The report underscores the increased development and proliferation of counter-space
weapons. In 2019, China’s space-focused Strategic Support Force reportedly began
training with direct-ascent anti-satellite, or ASAT, missiles capable of targeting satellites
in low-Earth orbit.
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The report says Beijing has already fielded ground-based anti-satellite missiles meant to
destroy satellites in low-earth orbit as well as ground-based anti-satellite lasers,
“probably intended to blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors on” lowEarth-orbit satellites.
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
The report projects that Russia, with its large network of reconnaissance,
communications, and navigation satellites, “will remain a key space competitor.”
Ｓ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Russia and China are continuing to train their military space elements, and both are
fielding new destructive and nondestructive anti-satellite weapons, the report says.
Russia’s weapons include “jamming and cyberspace capabilities, directed energy
weapons, on-orbit capabilities, and ground-based ASAT capabilities—to target US and
allied satellites.”
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
missions to the Moon aimed at establishing a robotic research station there and later an
“intermittently crewed” base.
nhsdlc.cn
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
4.3 Space Exploration Costs too Much
ＮＨ
Ｓ
“Humanity Would Be Better off Saving Earth, Rather Than Colonizing Mars” Etzioni,
Amitai and Eli. Amitai is a professor at The George Washington University and a former
NASA
chief
scientist.
The
National
Interest.
August
25,
2018.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/humanity-would-be-better-saving-earth-rathercolonizing-mars-29712
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
Note from the Directors: Space exploration makes big promises. Most Pro evidence
about developments and technology will be speculative. This is a credible source
calling into doubt the feasibility of things like a Mars mission – especially when
compared to pressing problems on Earth. We already face insurmountable terrestrial
challenges, we don’t need to do something else impossible.
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
Recently, SpaceX held a top-secret “Mars Workshop” in Boulder, Colorado, to discuss
what it would take to colonize Mars. Although the deliberations of the workshop were
kept quiet, in the past SpaceX founder Elon Musk and other prominent figures,
including renowned physicist Stephen Hawking, have stressed the importance of
establishing a sustainable outpost of human civilization on the Red Planet. “If there’s a
third world war we want to make sure there’s enough of a seed of human civilization
somewhere else to bring it back and shorten the length of the dark ages,” according to
Musk. Hawking believes that “[w]ith climate change, overdue asteroid strikes, epidemics
and population growth, our own planet is increasingly precarious,” and that we must
colonize a new planet in the next 100 years. “The Call of Mars” by Astronaut Buzz Aldrin
advocates for a “comprehensive plan that would lead to permanent human settlement
on Mars in the next 25 years.” Tim Urban, the writer behind the long-form blog Wait
But Why, sums up the situation with the following metaphor: “[a]ll of our eggs are on
one planet, let’s get life insurance for the species.”
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
The mission to colonize Mars runs into three major challenges. First, likening a colony
on Mars to life insurance is misleading. If the earth does overheat to the point that we all
fry or becomes so polluted that we all choke, there will be no way to move the world’s
population to Mars. Not even one child per family. Rather, the idea is that the survival of
the human species will be ensured; the select few that go to Mars will survive, procreate,
and gradually build a new population. Elon Musk’s most optimistic estimate is that
SpaceX will transport one million people to Mars in the next 100 years. The proper
analogy is to the United States' Cold War plan for nuclear warfare—to rush a few
thousand "special" people to bunkers, leaving most of humanity to be nuked.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
Second, if the colonization of Mars moves beyond the subject of workshops and cocktail
party chit-chat into a major project, it brings with it an unavoidable subtext of despair.
Despite the fact that what Musk, Hawking, and others propose it as a backup plan, it
suggests that we may well fail to save Mother Earth and that it is time to search for
another planetary home, to save the species, even if not mankind. But what the droughts,
the fires, the hot summers, and the melting glaciers call for is not an escape from Earth,
but a redoubling of the efforts to save it. Some hold that the next decade is a critical
period, as the window of opportunity to save the earth is rapidly narrowing. Others hold
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 59
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
Ｓ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
that we have more leeway. However, there is wide agreement that merely dialing down
economic activity may be neither sufficient nor politically feasible. What is needed are
major technological breakthroughs that will allow for protecting earth while sustaining a
healthy level of economic activity. Developing artificial leaves, that can turn carbon
dioxide into oxygen, and be mass-produced much more quickly than their natural
counterparts, is a telling example. To make such breakthroughs we need major
concentrations of research and development resources, talent, and leadership, all of
which are in short supply. Hence, any serious Mars endeavor will inevitably cut into the
drive to save Mother Earth.
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
As Ellen Stofan, former chief scientist of NASA puts it, “There is no Planet B.” We object
to the mission to colonize Mars. We believe that it is an incomplete solution to an
unlikely contingency. The window of opportunity for us to work together to solve our
planet’s most pressing problems is closing, and we must act before it is entirely shut.
Ｓ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Even Elon Musk admits that colonizing Mars will require “tremendous entrepreneurial
resources.” Musk and his team estimate that just sending the first twelve astronauts to
Mars will cost $10 billion per person. A rocket that could transport astronauts to Mars
remains to be invented. Once the astronauts do arrive on Mars, they will be confronted
with an extremely hostile environment. The water that has been discovered is buried
one mile below the surface, the air is saturated with toxic chemicals called perchlorates,
and the Mars atmosphere does little to protect from damaging cosmic radiation. Some
hold the water could be made to yield oxygen for breathing and hydrogen for fuel.
However, first one would have to bring a drill from earth, then pumps, then build a
plant to process the water. The same holds for most everything else.
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＮＨ
ＳＤ
ＬＣ
ＬＣ
ＳＤ
ＳＤ
Supplemental Research Packet | 60
ＬＣ
NHSDLC Fall 2021
nhsdlc.cn