Retail
For FCA purposes this is a Marketing Communication
6 February 2022 10:00 GMT
Retail
Industry Update
All Over The Shop
The direct impact of the pandemic on consumers is, hopefully, waning. We’re close
enough to appraise what’s happened, what’s emerging and what the implications
are. Whilst sector trends have remained robust, the bigger picture concerns.
Discretionary cash flow is under pressure, the need and want to spend elsewhere
is rising, and retail risks being squeezed – a familiar story for longer-term followers
of the sector. But this landing will be uneven, and tougher times tend to favour
disruptors, offering up opportunities.
●
●
●
●
Analysts
Simon Bowler
Tel: +44 (0)20 7260 1262
s.bowler@numis.com
Georgios Pilakoutas
Tel: +44 (0)20 7260 1427
g.pilakoutas@numis.com
Deirdre Mullaney
Tel: +44 (0)20 7260 1448
d.mullaney@numis.com
Demand. We brush off our household cash flow. The outlook for consumer income is
robust, but tax, pressures on the cost of living and leisure spend leave little room for
momentum in retail to continue. Savings that have accumulated through the pandemic
may provide a cushion, but we outline reasons why we don't think should be a base
case. Hope for support from the housing market also looks misplaced.
Category. Apparel and auto’s have further to recover. Homewares hasn’t been the
winner it is perceived as and will remain robust. But even if they have the appetite
to sustain elevated spend on bigger-ticker more discretionary purchases, consumers
don’t have the finances to do so.
Supply. Inflation is feeding into pricing, but we expect consumers to manage it out
of their baskets, inadvertently or otherwise. Cost pressures aren’t new to the sector
but do look challenging for all. This environment will challenge all retailers, but favour
growing and better operators. Market share returns to be critical.
What to do. We make four key points for the year ahead.
○ Play safe. Pets at Home and Dunelm are top picks, with Next and M&S still well
positioned.
○ Go global. Pepco and Inchcape are good growth businesses with forecast
momentum insulated from consumer pressures.
○ Be selective on growth. Valuations may remain under pressure, but Ocado and
Deliveroo are long-term winners for whom we see compelling entry points. We
remain enthused by Moonpig.
○ Avoid discretionary exposure. Kingfisher and Currys look vulnerable to category
demand rebasing.
This research was prepared
and approved by
Numis Securities Limited
45 Gresham Street
London
EC4M 7LT
+44 (0)20 7260 1000 | mail@numis.com
www.numis.com
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and
Regulated by The Financial Conduct
Authority. A Member of the London
Stock Exchange
For FCA purposes this marketing communication has not been prepared in accordance
with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research
and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of such
research. Important disclosures are on pages 23 to 28 relating to Numis Securities
Limited, EU disclosures, analyst certification, other requirements which restrict dealing
ahead, relevant investment banking relationships, potential conflicts of interest and
additional disclosures. See www.numis.com/Legal-and-Regulatory for other disclosures.
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
All over the shop – executive summary
We shall not call this a post COVID report. That would be tempting fate. But, as we write,
the direct impact from COVID looks to be, thankfully, lessening. We feel close enough to
appraise what has happened, what is emerging, and what the longer-term implications
for the sector are.
COVID has certainly proven a roller coaster ride. Initial fears for substantial declines in
retail spending were quickly dispelled as government support and restrictions on leisure
spend saw consumers divert their excess cash (and, for some, excess time) to the sector.
Operating costs were initially distorted by government and health restrictions, let alone
store closures. More recently retailers have been navigating supply and inflation
challenges.
Where to from here? We focus on two areas in this report.
1. Demand. Our updated household cash flow points to anaemic growth in households
discretionary spending power in 2022. A normalisation in the savings rate leaves room
for retail spending to still increase (c.4%), but at a declining rate through the year.
Consumers are going to have to have dip into their savings to allow anything better,
but this looks unlikely. With some mobility-linked categories such as apparel and autos
looking well set to bounce back, other home categories look vulnerable. We don’t
expect spending patterns to fully revert to previous, but we do suspect that is direction
in which we are heading.
2. Supply. Inflation is biting into COGs, but here we are more relaxed. Elasticity is fairly
well established, with consumers either adjusting volumes or (inadvertently or
otherwise) trading down to manage spending. However, we are mindful that a key tool
to mitigating inflation and minimising disruption, particularly with transit costs, has
been bringing forward buying. Reduced flexibility into an uncertain demand
environment risks markdown. Those same transit challenges are weighing on crossborder ecommerce, the timeframe and extent to which this eases remains unclear.
So, what do we conclude?
● Play safe. We look for exposure to more supportive and stable category demand,
insulation from trading down and lower markdown risk, with strong balance sheets.
Gratefully the recent sector pullback has left several opportunities in this camp – Pets
at Home and Dunelm would be our top picks. With recovery tailwinds, apparel should
also see robust demand, we remain enthused on both Next and M&S.
● Go global. Inchcape and Pepco offer value on forecasts that look well underpinned
in most consumer environments.
● Be selective on growth. COVID provided a dramatic tailwind to ecommerce, but the
rebase has been similarly significant. Two-year CAGRs for many aren’t far ahead of
pre-COVID run rates. Not all propositions have meaningfully advanced, and adoption
is further up the “S-curve”. The exception is food tech, where we see growth
compounding as new opportunities have been unlocked. Deliveroo and Ocado are
very different stories, with different risk profiles, but compelling long-term
opportunities. Recent market moves will open opportunities elsewhere, but we need
higher conviction on international freightage.
● Avoid. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Kingfisher and Currys continue
to look most vulnerable to category demand rebasing. Given their cash absorption,
our concerns over the strategic positioning and propositions at JET and THG continue
to weigh on enthusiasm.
2
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange1
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Demand
The relationship between consumer cash flow and retail spending has broken down
through COVID. With incomes supported by government and reduced ability/want to
spend transport/leisure, sector demand was robust before accelerating.
In 2022, income growth looks well underpinned. A tight employment market is supportive
of wage growth. Yet much of this will be lost in higher taxes and increased nondiscretionary spending, specifically energy, transport and debt servicing costs.
We therefore expect the income available for discretionary spending to plateau year-onyear. This still leaves room for actual discretionary spending to grow 13% as the saving
rate reduces. However, we expect leisure to disproportionately benefit from that dynamic.
Assuming the saving rate returns to pre-COVID trends, we see capacity for retail spending
+4% yoy, albeit on a slowing trajectory with low-single-growth by 4Q.
Table 1: Household cash flow
(£bn)
2019
2020
2021
2022e
Income
1,480
1,504
1,580
1,653
1.6%
5.1%
4.6%
(349)
(394)
(419)
-4.1%
12.9%
6.2%
193
222
231
-16.6%
14.5%
4.4%
- yoy%
Tax
(364)
- yoy%
Other income
232
- yoy%
Non-discretionary spend
(662)
- yoy%
Available for discretionary spend
685
- yoy%
Actual discretionary spend
(683)
- yoy%
Savings
o/w Leisure
(657)
(711)
3.4%
8.2%
712
751
755
4.0%
5.4%
0.5%
(540)
(610)
(691)
-20.9%
13.0%
13.3%
2
172
141
63
(259)
(151)
(182)
(245)
-41.7%
20.6%
34.7%
(389)
(428)
(447)
-8.3%
10.0%
4.3%
- yoy%
o/w Retail
(636)
-4.0%
(425)
- yoy%
Source: Numis Securities Research
The most significant sources of risk to this outcome are.
● A reversal of the savings rate with consumers funding ongoing spend from stronger
balance sheets. We think this unlikely for several reasons discussed later.
● A different recovery profile for leisure spending. Our FY estimates are consistent with
an exit-rate (i.e. 4Q) of leisure spend +5% vs 2019 (and retail +5%).
The table below summarises our expectations for category spend. They look for a
reversion towards – but not to – pre COVID wallet share within the sector. Even so there
are some dramatic differences in category spend. Risk feels to be greater reversion.
Table 2: Category spend expectations
2020
2021
2022e
2022 vs 2019
-14%
8%
8%
0%
-3%
9%
0%
5%
Furniture
9%
10%
-8%
10%
Electricals
22%
7%
-16%
9%
DIY
20%
6%
-9%
15%
Auto
-18%
11%
13%
3%
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
Homewares
Source: Numis Securities Research
2Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
3
6 February 2022
From this summary onwards this report comes with something of a health warning; we do
get relatively data heavy.
Different business models and competitive environments are clearly critical aspects to
long-term value, or otherwise, in the sector.
However, the nature of retail, which can typically be defined as with relatively large, fixed
cost bases being leveraged by relatively high contribution margins, leaves retailers at the
whim of demand for their products. Or put simply, operational leverage is a powerful tool
in both directions for retailers.
Furthermore, long-lead times and barriers to entry mean it takes time for supply to build,
or shrink, to match demand. The sector has over time become more dynamic in this
regard, but there is a limit to how far this can and will ever go.
Market share shifts can mitigate demand patterns, but the habitual nature of customers
and the gradual fly-wheel that operational leverage provides for winners to invest into
better propositions (and others to not do so), means this is a critical, but more gradual
dynamic, which is of greater concern in periods of stable consumption patterns.
Hence understanding the evolution of demand is typically our first concern in the sector.
Our primary tool has for a long time been considering consensus expectations for
household cashflow trends. Its usefulness has fallen apart over the last two years as
consumption has come to be defined less by what consumers have available spend,
and more around want they want to spend.
Our base case, as we discuss below, is that by the end of the year this dynamic will have
passed, and the ebbs of flows of discretionary cashflows will become a key factor in sector
trends.
Before we get into it – one further warning. For consistency the primary source we use
throughout is ONS. This data is gathered from regular surveys of the broadest, thousands,
of retailers of all shapes and sizes. It correlates to changes in household balance sheets
and other moving parts of the UK economy.
However, its categorisation of spend isn’t exactly as we would wish. We (painfully)
regroup the data as presented into the closest approximates for what we, and investors,
would consider e.g., apparel purchases, DIY spend etc. But this isn’t perfect. Where third
party data is available, we have cross-referenced it to give additional context.
In that context we sequentially run through.
● Income expectations for UK consumer, net of taxes.
● Non-discretionary spend demands.
● Available cash for discretionary spend, with a comparison to actual spend.
● Uses of discretionary spend, between retail, leisure and savings.
● Category spend dynamics within retail.
4
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange3
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Income
We don’t dwell on income expectations, setting out forecasts consistent with consensus
expectations, assuming economists to be better equipped at arriving at considered views.
We model a 3.6% increase in wages and a +1.3% increase in employment, consistent
with consensus and OBR forecasts. This growth looks fairly well underpinned by latest
trends and survey data highlighting the lack of slack in the labour market.
Figure 1: Employment growth yoy%
3%
Figure 2: Unemployment rate, %
Figure 3: Wage growth / hiring
14
5
10%
4
2%
12
6%
2
10
1%
8%
3
1
8
4%
0
0%
2%
-1
6
0%
-2
4
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Source: Datastream
Q1'21
Q1'20
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
BoE Agent's score of recruitment
difficulties
0
-3%
Q1'16
2
Q1'15
-2%
Q1'13
-2%
-3
Q1'14
-1%
Average weekly earnings
Source: Datastream
Source: Datastream
This growth in wage income is partially offset by lower social security benefits and a higher
tax take. This models an overall tax take of 25.3% of income, c.+40bps yoy and +70bps
vs pre COVID levels. After considering dividends and investment income, which we note
are often reinvested / held in pensions, but for which we don’t model material changes,
together this points to after tax income growth of +4.1%. Broadly in line with consensus.
Table 3: Household after-tax income (Numis definition*)
After-tax income (£bn)
2019
2020
2021
2022
Employment income
1,233
1,243
1,313
1,376
0.8%
5.7%
4.8%
261
268
277
6.1%
2.4%
3.6%
1,504
1,580
1,653
1.6%
5.1%
4.6%
(295)
- yoy%
Social security income
246
- yoy%
Total Income
1,480
- yoy%
Income and wealth tax
(247)
- yoy%
Social security
(117)
- yoy%
Total Tax
-364
- yoy%
tax take
(247)
(278)
-0.2%
12.7%
6.2%
(102)
(116)
(123)
-12.5%
13.4%
6.4%
-349
-394
-419
-4.1%
12.9%
6.2%
-24.6%
-23.2%
-24.9%
-25.3%
Dividend income
125
103
120
124
Investment income
118
103
116
124
Other
(11)
(12)
(14)
(17)
1,348
1,348
1,408
1,466
0.1%
4.4%
4.1%
After tax income
- yoy%
Per capita
('22, £)
Per h’hold
('22, £)
24,603
59,473
-6,230
-15,059
21,816
52,736
* The definition used in the UK national accounts includes non-cash social security as well as interest income and costs
Source: Numis Securities Research
4Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
5
6 February 2022
Non-discretionary expenditure
Within here we model interest costs and non-discretionary costs (inc food). The
combination of rising interest rates, utility costs, domestic transport and ongoing inflation
in other cost lines (which include rent, health, education, communication and financial
services) leads to a significant increase in costs for consumers. This leads to a 10% yearon-year increase in non-discretionary costs.
Table 4: Non-discretionary costs
Non-discretionary costs (£bn)
Interest income
2019
2020
2021
2022
Per capita Per h'hold
('22, £)
('22, £)
13
9
6
6
86
207
Interest expense
(58)
(55)
(54)
(69)
(1,028)
(2,485)
Utilities
(44)
(962)
(2,326)
(522)
(1,261)
(8,160)
(19,726)
(10,587)
(25,591)
- yoy%
Domestic transport
(59)
- yoy%
Other non-discretionary spend
(515)
- yoy%
Total non-discretionary spend
(662)
- yoy%
(43)
(48)
(65)
-1.7%
11.3%
35.8%
(24)
(24)
(35)
-58.3%
-3.5%
48.7%
(523)
(539)
(548)
1.6%
3.0%
1.8%
(636)
(657)
(711)
-4.0%
3.4%
8.2%
Source: Numis Securities Research
In absolute terms that increase in non-discretionary costs is similar to the increase in
income. This leaves the amount available for discretionary spending broadly flat yoy.
Table 5: Available for discretionary spending, £bn
Non-discretionary costs (£bn)
2019
2020
2021
2022 Per capita Per h'hold
('22, £)
('22, £)
After tax income
1,348
1,348
1,408
1,466
0.1%
4.4%
4.1%
(636)
(657)
(711)
-4.0%
3.4%
8.2%
- yoy%
Total non-discretionary spend
(662)
- yoy%
Available for discretionary spend
685
- yoy%
712
751
755
4.0%
5.4%
0.5%
21,816
52,736
(10,587)
(25,591)
11,230
27,145
Source: Numis Securities Research
At this point, it is worth recalling what has happened to discretionary expenditure through
the course of the pandemic. We also show our 2022e forecast in the chart below.
Figure 4: Consumer use of cash available for discretionary spend, £bn
800
700
63
2
172
600
500
141
425
447
400
428
389
300
200
100
259
151
182
2020
2021
245
0
2019
Leisure
Retail
2022e
Savings
Source: Numis Securities Research
6
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange5
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Available vs Actual discretionary spend
As the chart above shows retail spend dipped in 2020 but has recovered through 2021.
Unsurprisingly leisure spend suffered to a greater extent given the restrictions on mobility.
However, with amounts available for discretionary spending robust, consumers were able
to accumulate significant savings.
We expect total consumer savings across 2020-22e in excess of £350bn. This isn’t far off
half a typical year’s total discretionary spending.
We note that other, typically lower numbers, are quoted in the press and by economists,
which tend to reflect the increase in money deposits relative to historic trends. However
cash savings have been stronger as shown above, but consumers have chosen to invest
some of these amounts into debt paydown and fixed assets (e.g. housing).
In 2022 this means that whilst we see the amount available for discretionary spending as
flat year-on-year, the amount actually spent can – and we expect will – be better than
that outturn.
Our forecasts above suggest consumers will continue to accumulate excess cash savings
over the course of 2022. However, this largely reflects;
● a phased weakening in discretionary income (as inflationary headwinds build, with Q4
weaker yoy),
● a phased recovery in spending (as mobility returns),
● a gradual lowering in the savings ratio.
The table below pulls out 4Q trends to emphasise this point, with income negative,
savings minimal (modestly negative, as is seasonally typical in Q4) and retail spend in
only very modest growth.
Table 6: Use of amounts available for discretionary spend
(£bn)
2019
2020
2021
2022e
4Q'19
4Q'21
4Q'22
Available for discretionary spend
685
712
751
755
170
199
184
-7.3%
Uses: Leisure
259
151
182
239
64
52
69
30.9%
Uses: Retail
425
389
428
447
112
116
118
1.5%
2
172
141
69
(6)
30
(2)
nm
Uses: Savings
4Q'22 / '21
Source: Numis Securities Research
We dive into trends and assumptions for leisure spending and savings over the following
pages.
We also consider the impact of the housing market on retail spending, before moving onto
our observations and assumptions for sector demand.
6Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
7
6 February 2022
Leisure spending
Up until the pandemic consumers had tended to spend the majority of discretionary
income. Within that expenditure retail had seen gradual loss of wallet share. This reflects.
● Growing preference for experiences over goods, with social media more recently
fuelling this phenomenon through growing awareness and sharing of “experiences”,
● Long run structural trends such as eating/drinking out of the home, more frequent
holidays/mini-breaks and online gambling all supporting growth in leisure spend,
● Greater innovation in leisure, giving rise to more opportunities to purchase
“experiences”,
● Greater inflation in leisure, given its cost base is more linked into wages and the
regulated NMW/NLW. This has meant that even if relative volumes were unchanged,
proportionately more spend would fall in leisure.
Figure 5: Mix of discretionary spending, leisure vs non-food retail
70%
69%
68%
67%
66%
65%
64%
63%
62%
61%
60%
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Non-food retail
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
Leisure
Source: Datastream
It will take time to see to what extent wallet share reverts to norm, but there are some
early data points to suggest that reversion may be fairly full and fast. In particular we note.
● In 3Q’20, consumer spending on furniture, homewares, electricals and DIY rose to
c.20% ahead of 2019 levels. It didn’t take long for consumers to look to deploy cash
in the sector once they were able to. A similar release of pent-up demand could
support a rapid recovery in leisure spending.
● In 3Q’21, one of the least disrupted quarters in the UK since COVID impacted,
spending on domestic hotels and restaurants was 5% ahead of the 2019. Once
lockdowns and restrictions were eased, pent-up demand was immediately evident.
● In 4Q’21, in the US, consumption of total leisure returned to within a single-digit
proportion of total discretionary expenditure.
The Numis Leisure team expects restaurant/hotel spending to reach 95% of 2019 levels
(Omicron in Q1) and overseas holiday spend to be around 85% (reflecting pent-up
Summer demand but a quiet Q1). We build this shape into our 2022 forecasts.
For context to the chart above, our forecasts are consistent with leisure spending
accounting c.35% of total discretionary spend across 2022, but on a recovering trend,
with an exit rate of 63% (i.e., broadly in line with the pre-pandemic level split of spending).
8
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange7
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Savings
We have a further build of savings during 2022, but this largely reflects savings in 1H as
Omicron continues to weigh on consumer capacity to spend. We end the year with
consumers modestly dipping into their savings, as it typically the case in cal-4Q.
Implicit within this is a key assumption that is worthy of further consideration. In assuming
savings return to pre-pandemic levels, we do not assume that consumers use the
significant “cash pile” they have built over the course of the pandemic.
Given the size of those cumulative savings, this is a key assumption. Clearly only some
of it would need to be spent to give relatively significant support to discretionary spending.
We will continue to monitor this assumption, but for the time being note.
● Retail spending complete. Put simply if consumers wanted to spend more on retail,
the last 24 months was the moment to do it. There may be some categories – for
example apparel – with a link to mobility that meant the desire to spend was lower,
but elsewhere the ability to purchase has not been constrained by household’s
financial position.
● Total household wealth. When considering the movements across the household
balance sheet hasn’t accumulated extraordinarily, in fact whilst households have built
a stronger net asset position through the pandemic – largely as a function of deposits
into cash and equities, the rate of growth has not been dissimilar to that seen in other
years over the last decade – largely as a function of the performance of pensions
across the asset classes they invest in.
Figure 6: Changes in UK household total financial wealth
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
currency and deposits
other (e.g. debt securities)
pensions, annuities and insurance policies
equity and investment fund shares
Total Financial assets yoy %
Average
Source: Pantheon, ONS
8Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
9
6 February 2022
● Direction of savings. We haven’t been able to find great timely data on this, but the
chart in the margin presents some data accumulated by the ONS in the UK and
published in Nov-20. This captured a survey data around the impact of COVID on the
wealth of different types of households. We can’t imagine the shape of this is much
changed, with a disproportionate amount of excess savings has been accumulated by
wealthier households.
Figure 7: Saving changes since CV19
Savings Increased
● Rising interest rates. Consumers have paid down debt and built-up savings over the
last 24 months. That has been done in an environment of broadly flat interest rates.
Should interest rates rise, as is broadly expected, the logic to accumulate via savings
or pay down debt, will only grow.
Retirees
Furloughed
Unemployed
Low-income
High-income
Middle-income
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
● Consumer confidence. Confidence has recovered from the pandemic lows, but has
faltered more recently, with trends worsening over the last 6 months. This may in part
reflect the emergence of Omicron. We believe confidence tends to be an output rather
than input, but this shape of confidence does also suggest the current environment is
unlikely to be conducive to spending. Savings intentions have come down modestly,
likely as consumers can see the potential to increase mobility-linked spending, but
nonetheless remain at elevated levels.
Savings Decreased
Source: ONS
Figure 8: Consumer confidence - long run
Figure 9: Consumer confidence - short run
30
30
20
20
10
0
10
-10
0
-20
-30
-10
-40
-20
-50
-60
Savings intentions
Savings intentions
Jan-22
Climate for Major Purchases
Oct-21
Climate for Major Purchases
Jul-21
Consumer confidence
Apr-21
Jan-21
Oct-20
Consumer confidence
Source: Datastream
10
Jul-20
Apr-20
Jan-20
Oct-19
Jul-19
Apr-19
Jan-19
Oct-18
Jul-18
Apr-18
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
Jan-18
-30
Source: Datastream
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange9
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
The housing market
Finally in this section we touch on the housing market. This also has implications of the
category spend observations and assumptions we set out in the next part of this report.
● In aggregate housing transactions have been c.7% above recent average since the
pandemic began.
● House price growth has been strong after a weaker period towards the end of the
previous decade. Nonetheless, the increase in house prices isn’t that abnormal by
longer-run standards and not particularly greater than that seen across 2014-17. On
average quarter-on-quarter growth in house prices has been 1.6% since the pandemic
struck, compared to 0.8% across 2010-20.
Figure 10: Quarterly UK property transactions, ‘000
Figure 11: UK house prices, yoy, %
600
30%
25%
500
20%
2Q'20-4Q'21 average
15%
400
10%
300
5%
0%
200
-5%
-10%
100
-15%
0
Q1
1998
-20%
Q1
2001
Q1
2004
Q1
2007
Q1
2010
Q1
2013
Q1
2016
Q1
2019
Q1
2022
Q1
1998
Q1
2001
Q1
2004
Q1
2007
Q1
2010
Source: Oxford economics
Q1
2013
Q1
2016
Q1
2019
Q1
2022
Source: Oxford economics
The link between housing transactions / prices and retail spending is often discussed.
Consumers are more likely to purchase furniture and big-ticket electrical items upon
moving house. They are more likely to undertake renovation projects as well. If house
prices are accreting the willing to invest back into the home asset through bigger project
spend should also be higher. Not all of this spend will be instant, with for example a lagged
impact as consumers work their way through projects after moving house.
Anecdotally furniture, DIY and electrical retailers will talk to 5-20% of their business being
driven by house moves or renovation projects.
However, when considered against actual trends in retail spending, we’ve never found a
significant correlation. The housing market was clearly more liquid and in greater growth
prior to the GFC than it has been since.
Yet non-food retail spend was notably different.
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
10
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
11
6 February 2022
Figure 12: Non-food retail sales, yoy%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
Q1'10
Q1'09
Q1'08
Q1'07
Q1'06
Q1'05
Q1'04
Q1'03
Q1'02
Q1'01
Q1'00
Q1'99
Q1'98
-8%
Source: ONS
Even on a product category basis, the impact looks to be fairly minimal. DIY saw some
supportive trends around 2002-04 and again in 2007-08. But that dynamic aside, we see
no material links between category spend and the housing market.
Figure 13: Wallet share of non-food retail
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
Furniture & Homewares
Electricals
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
Q1'10
Q1'09
Q1'08
Q1'07
Q1'06
Q1'05
Q1'04
Q1'03
Q1'02
Q1'01
Q1'00
Q1'99
Q1'98
4%
DIY
Source: ONS
In the context of what have been supportive, but certainly not unprecedented, moves in
the housing market through the pandemic, we don’t see any reason to expect total or percategory spending to be unduly impacted by the housing market.
12
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
11
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Retail spending
Our assumptions around leisure spending and savings are consistent with a c.4% yoy
increase in retail spending in 2022. This is equivalent to c.5% ahead of 2019 levels.
Considered across 2020-22 this is equivalent to cumulative retail spend of £1,264bn, 1%
lower than the run rate of spending seen in 2019 in absolute terms.
Table 7: Use of amounts available for discretionary spend, £bn
2019
2020
2021
2022e
4Q'19
4Q'21
4Q'22
Available for discretionary spend
685
712
751
755
170
199
184
-7.3%
Uses: Leisure
259
151
182
245
64
52
69
30.9%
Uses: Retail
425
389
428
447
112
116
118
1.5%
2
172
141
63
-6
30
-2
nm
Uses: Savings
4Q'22 / '21
Source: Numis Securities Research
Retail spending in 2020 fell 8.5% to £389bn, largely reflecting a trough in demand as the
initial impact of COVID struck. Spend recovered in 2021 to be modestly ahead of 2019
levels.
As notable as the overall spend in the sector, is spend within categories. The pandemic
has proven polarising for the sub-sectors of retail.
Apparel, beauty and jewellery given links to mobility have suffered. Auto’s, given supply
challenges has done similarly. Home related categories, from big ticket and to (a lesser
extent) small ticket, have seen accelerated demand.
We doubt this commentary surprises, but over the next few pages we look to put this into
context.
To do so fully requires the data to be cut three ways in our opinion. What has happened
to absolute spending? What has happened to wallet share? What has happened to
cumulative spending?
We look to address each point below, adding our forecasts for context.
Our category spend forecasts can be summarised as follows.
Table 8: Category spend expectations
2020
2021
2022e
-14%
8%
8%
0%
-3%
9%
0%
+5%
Furniture
9%
10%
-8%
+10%
Electricals
22%
7%
-16%
+9%
DIY
20%
6%
-9%
+15%
Auto
-18%
11%
13%
+3%
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
Homewares
2022 vs 19
Source: Numis Securities Research
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
12
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
13
6 February 2022
Apparel, beauty & jewellery spending
These categories have shown similar trends, so for ease we aggregate them. For context
apparel accounts for c.65% of spend, beauty c.25% and jewellery c.10%.
Figure 14: Spend, indexed to 2019
Figure 15: Share of retail spend, 12m
Figure 16: Cumulative spend vs 2019
140
27%
130%
130
27%
120%
120
26%
110%
110
26%
100
100%
25%
90
90%
25%
80
80%
60
24%
70%
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
Source: Numis Securities Research
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
24%
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
These charts show the dip, and then sequential recovery in spend. Given the inherent
linkage to mobility, aside from 2Q’21 (supported by release of pent-up demand from store
closures in 1Q’21) demand has remained consistently below 2019 levels. Recent trading
reported by retailers suggests 4Q saw a sequential improvement.
Our forecasts assume that as mobility recovers, absolute sales return to levels similar to
that seen in 2019. This sees the category remain a lower portion of wallet share than it
had commanded across 2019.
By 3Q’21 cumulative spend on apparel since Jan-20 was c.11% below the 2019 run-rate.
The category had been in modest growth before (c.4% p.a. 2014-19), demonstrating the
lost sales through this period. Our assumption that spend returns to pre-pandemic levels,
isn’t implying that these “lost sales” are recovered. Any pent-up demand could lead to a
better outturn.
Our category spend outturn looks for spend c.+8% yoy across calendar 2022.
This looks fairly consistent with our company forecasts for the more mature retailers Next
and M&S. Both had been share doners across 2014-19, but a combination of (i)
accelerated capacity withdrawal through the pandemic, (ii) stronger trends in store growth
in the first quarter, (iii) more advanced strategies for each, and (iv) contribution from
international, which we expect to account for 2-3% of Next sales growth, supports our
assumption of more stable share trends for 2022 at least.
Table 9: Longer-run category trends and company context
Apparel, beauty, jewellery
2020
2021
2022e
-14%
8%
8%
Company context
Next FY23 revenue: Guidance +7%, Numis +9%
M&S cal-22 C&H revenue: Numis +6%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
14
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
13
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Homewares spending
Whilst we believe it has been perceived as a “COVID winner”, ONS data actually suggests
demand patterns in homewares haven’t been boosted that significantly. This aligns with
GfK data and Dunelm commentary pointing towards 2021 spend being mid-single digit
ahead of 2019.
Figure 17: Spend, indexed to 2019
Figure 18: Share of retail spend, 12m
140
6.1%
130
6.0%
Figure 19: Cumulative spend vs 2019
130%
120%
5.9%
120
5.8%
110
110%
5.7%
100%
100
5.6%
90
5.5%
80
5.4%
70
5.3%
60
5.2%
90%
80%
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
Homewares
Homewares
Homewares
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70%
Despite the stay-at-home dynamic of the first lockdown, demand for homewares fell
reasonably sharply. The category wasn’t initially categorised as essential, the fragmented
base of retailers generally had poor online capabilities and for many purchase journeys
the low ASP and/or want to view the product doesn’t lend itself to online purchase.
Demand has recovered since, to broadly high single digit above 2019 levels.
However, this more recent growth has only served to bring cumulative spend across 2020
to 3Q’21 to levels consistent with the 2019 run-rate of spend.
Further context is offered by the robust growth trends seen in the category prior to the
pandemic. Across 2014-19 category spend had grown c.6% per annum on average.
Arguably recent expenditure levels haven’t been above trend and there is still room for
further catch-up spend.
Our sector forecasts don’t look to capture this, assuming demand in 2022 c.5% above
2019 levels as wallet share normalises.
This outturn again looks consistent with our company forecasts. At Dunelm we look for
+13% revenue in cal-22 or c.+7% when adjusting for store closures in 1Q’21, implying
ongoing share gains. This is equivalent to c.+40% vs 2019 as market share has stepped
up to c.10% from c.7%.
We also reference Next’s forecasts below, where we estimate homewares account for
c.10% of revenue.
Table 10: Longer-run category trends and company context
Homewares
2020
2021
2022e
-3%
9%
0%
Company context
Dunelm cal-22 revenue: Numis +13%
Next FY23 revenue: Guidance +7%, Numis +9%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
14
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
15
6 February 2022
Furniture spending
Trends in furniture have been better than in homewares, with the category better suited
to online research and purchase, and the nature of the category aligning with customers
want to reallocate big-ticket spend from leisure.
Figure 20: Spend, indexed to 2019
140
130
Figure 21: Share of retail spend, 12m
Figure 22: Cumulative spend vs 2019
6%
130%
5%
120%
4%
110%
3%
100%
2%
90%
1%
80%
0%
70%
120
110
100
90
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
60
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
80
Furniture
Furniture
Source: Numis Securities Research
Furniture
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
An initial fall in demand was quickly recovered through 2020 as pent-up demand was
released. Cumulative spend by the end of 2020 was approaching c.+10% ahead of 2019.
Demand was modestly stronger still in 2021 to 3Q, leading to cumulative demand since
Jan-20 c.20% ahead of 2019 levels.
We note cumulative housing transactions for the same period have also been 10% ahead
of prior levels, supported by stamp duty reductions and heightened desire from
consumers to move house. DFS management note c.20-30% of transactions are related
to a house move, suggesting this has provided a part in the increased spend.
We expect demand to moderate from here, but remain c.5% ahead of 2019 levels in 2022.
This is equivalent to average spend across 2019-2022 c.10% of 2019 levels, a modestly
better outturn than the c.7% annual growth the sector had seen across 2014-19.
One further dynamic to note is that supply chain constraints have resulted in elevated
lead times through 2021 in particular. This may have smoothed demand to an extent, but
more significantly will prove supportive to 2022e revenue trends.
For DFS, our cal-22 gross sales forecasts are c.+22% yoy. This is impacted by revenue
recognition, with 2021 sales not recognised until delivery in 2022. After the higher order
book unwinds our forecasts imply low-single-digit growth in sales. This reflects share
gains and an assumption of greater resilience in their category as lead times improve.
We again note our Next and Dunelm forecasts, where we estimate furniture accounts for
c.10% of revenues.
Table 11: Longer-run category trends and company context
Furniture
2020
2021
2022e
9%
10%
-8%
Company context
DFS: +3%, when adjusting for the order book
Dunelm cal-22 revenue: Numis +13%
Next FY23 revenue: Guidance +7%, Numis +9%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
16
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
15
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Electricals spending
Trends in electricals have been amongst the best in the sector, although we note the ONS
categorisation has always been more volatile than trends seen on the ground from
retailers. The migration to online occurred with relative ease given the already high
penetration. Demand also grew given greater product usage, largely a function of working
from home impacting computing, TV, SDA and even the typically more stable MDA
category as wear and tear increased.
Figure 23: Spend, indexed to 2019
140
130
Figure 24: Share of retail spend, 12m
Figure 25: Cumulative spend vs 2019
12%
130%
10%
120%
8%
110%
6%
100%
4%
90%
2%
80%
0%
70%
120
110
100
90
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
60
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
80
Electricals
Electricals
Source: Numis Securities Research
Electricals
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Spend peaked in early 2021, compounding strong demand from 2020. Sector spend was
nearly 40% ahead of 2019 levels in 1Q’21. This moderated into 3Q’21, and whilst 4Q data
hasn’t been released, retailers have been reporting a further moderation.
We expect demand to further moderate from here through 2022, although still model
demand c.10% ahead of 2019 levels.
This outlook is equivalent to spend across 2020-22 averaging 20% ahead of the prepandemic run-rate.
That compares to the 4% annual growth seen across 2014-19.
Support is offered by the increase in housing transactions as well as what we expect to
be some amount of permanent increase in technology usage, but this does feel a sector
where visibility and potentially volatility is higher. Any demand hole in the aftermath of
elevated sales would present a significant further headwind.
For the definitional reasons noted above, Currys haven’t participated in the sector growth
of electrical sales used by the ONS. For Currys LFL electrical sales peaked c.20% ahead
of 2019 rates and across cal-21 were closer to 13-14% ahead of 2019 levels. We therefore
model a more modest rebasing in revenues in 2022, albeit this outturn still leaves us
significantly below consensus expectations.
Table 12: Longer-run category trends and company context
Electricals
2020
2021
2022e
Company context
22%
7%
-16%
Currys UK&I cal-22 revenues: -4.5%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
16
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
17
6 February 2022
DIY spending
DIY has experienced very similar demand patterns to electricals, albeit somewhat more
lagged. The category didn’t transition online as easily, but was soon categorised as
essential, and benefitted from (i) instant customer demand to complete smaller projects
whilst at home, (ii) lagged customer demand for larger project work, which typically comes
with longer lead times, as consumers looked to put excess cash to work and adapt their
homes for changes in their current and expected living styles. An increase in housing
prices and transactions has likely also supported demand, given the wealth effect of the
former and the greater propensity to invest into the home after purchase.
Figure 26: Spend, indexed to 2019
Figure 27: Share of retail spend, 12m
Figure 28: Cumulative spend vs 2019
140
7%
130%
130
6%
120%
120
5%
110%
110
4%
100
100%
3%
90
80%
60
0%
70%
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
1%
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
90%
2%
80
DIY
DIY
Source: Numis Securities Research
DIY
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Spend peaked in early 2Q’21, over 30% ahead of 2019 levels.
Similar to electricals we expect demand to rebase, although given the longer lead time
associated to aspects of category spend, we assume more of this demand is to be
realised. The sequential softening in demand is therefore less extreme, with 2022 spend
remaining 15% ahead of 2019 levels. This is equivalent to a similar assumption that
overall category spend across 2020-22 averages 20% more than the 2019 run-rate.
Kingfisher’s UK business correlates better with the ONS data, albeit with some timing
differences. Kingfisher reported UK sales growth of +11% in both FY21 and FY22 (Jan
year-end), cumulatively similar to the ONS data. Our demand model is consistent with our
UK LFL assumptions, which we believe sit below management aspiration and consensus
expectations.
Table 13: Longer-run category trends and company context
DIY
2020
2021
2022e
20%
6%
-9%
Company context
KGF UK: -9%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
18
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
17
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Auto spending
Auto has been a unique sector. A higher, albeit decreasing, want to see and test vehicles
prior to purchase, alongside initially underdeveloped online capabilities from distributors
and retailers, led to demand being heavily impacted through periods of lockdown.
Whilst demand has recovered in other periods, supply shortages of new cars have
reduced liquidity throughout the sector. This has served to hold back consumer
expenditure.
Figure 29: Spend, indexed to 2019
Figure 30: Share of retail spend, 12m
140
33%
130
32%
Figure 31: Cumulative spend vs 2019
130%
120%
31%
120
110%
30%
110
29%
100%
100
28%
90
90%
27%
80
26%
70
25%
60
24%
80%
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70%
Auto
Auto
Auto
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Nonetheless, spend recovered in 3Q’21 to 2019 levels, as despite new car volumes still
down -25%, this was compensated for by inflation in new and used vehicles and we see
potential for the release of pent-up demand to drive spending beyond 2019 levels.
Nonetheless our forecasts still assume cumulative expenditure across 2019-22 remains
c.5% below 2019 levels.
This outturn is equivalent to 13% yoy growth in spend in 2022.
This outturn would be supportive of our Lookers forecasts where revenue trends across
2020 and 2021 broadly matched those reported by ONS data.
It would also be supportive of Motorpoint where our c.+20% revenue growth forecasts are
largely driven by the new site roll-out.
However, we note supply will continue to be an important determinant of this, and the
challenges for retailers in this sector are as much impacted by margins as they are
revenues, as the recent trading environment has demonstrated.
Table 14: Longer-run category trends and company context
Auto’s
2020
2021
2022e
-18%
11%
13%
Company context
Lookers revenue: +9%
Motorpoint: +20%
Source: Company & Numis Securities Research
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
18
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
19
6 February 2022
Other spending
For completeness we include spend patterns across the balance of retail spending. This
for example includes spend across recreational goods, toys, stationery and pets.
Figure 33: Share of retail spend, 12m
140
20%
130
20%
130%
120%
20%
120
20%
110
20%
100
19%
90
19%
110%
100%
90%
19%
80
19%
60
18%
80%
70%
4Q'19
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
19%
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
70
Figure 34: Cumulative spend vs 2019
1Q'20
2Q'20
3Q'20
4Q'20
1Q'21
2Q'21
3Q'21
4Q'21e
1Q'22e
2Q'22e
3Q'22e
4Q'22e
Figure 32: Spend, indexed to 2019
Other
Other
Source: Numis Securities Research
Source: Numis Securities Research
Other
Source: Numis Securities Research
Overall spend patterns quickly rebounded to 2019 levels and have remained there since,
an outturn we expect to broadly continue into the next year.
20
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
19
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Supply
Inflation is biting into COGs, but here we are more relaxed. Elasticity is fairly well
established, with consumers either adjusting volumes or (inadvertently or otherwise)
trading down to manage spending.
At first glance there looks to actually be something of an inelastic relationship between
inflation and non-food spend.
Figure 35: Non-food spend vs inflation
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Non-food spend, value yoy
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
-10%
Non-food inflation
Source: Datastream
But we find a far stronger relationship with non-food spend and disposable income,
suggesting the latter is the primary driver of sector spend, rather than what inflation within
the sector looks like.
Figure 36: Non-food spend vs disposable income
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Non-food spend, value yoy
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
-10%
Disposable income
Source: Datastream
Where there have been periods of inflation – most recently 2011 (post GFC) and 2017
(post Brexit vote and GBP depreciation) there also hasn’t been a particularly discernible
impact on consumers willing to spend in specific categories
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
20
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
21
6 February 2022
At the edges bigger ticket items appeared to lose element of wallet share across 2016,
but there were quickly recovered.
Figure 37: Share of retail spending
Figure 38: Share of retail spending
35%
10%
33%
9%
31%
29%
8%
27%
25%
7%
23%
6%
21%
19%
5%
17%
15%
Clothing, H&B, Jewellery
Other
Auto
Furniture & Homewares
Source: Datastream
Electricals
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
Q1'19
Q1'18
Q1'17
Q1'16
Q1'15
Q1'14
Q1'13
Q1'12
Q1'11
4%
DIY
Source: Datastream
The more relevant aspect to inflation in our opinion is the operational impact across the
sector. As cost pressures build we see retailers double down on cost saving measures.
No one wants to be the only one trying to pass on price rises.
Most recently, cost pressures were centred around transit costs. To offset this anecdotally
we are aware many retailers brought forward buying. Uncertainty over supply, which is
likely to continue given the risk of may heighten should China incur further COVID waves),
we have anecdotally seen retailers bring forward buying.
Reduced flexibility into an uncertain demand environment risks elevating markdown.
22
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
21
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Regulatory Notice & Disclaimer
The following disclosures are addressed to
EU-based recipients.
France
Numis Securities Limited is not a licensed or passported credit
institution or investment firm in France.
Italy
Numis Securities Limited is not authorised to offer regulated
services/activities in Italy, the information provided is general in
nature and does not constitute financial advice and should not
be construed as an offer of securities or other financial products,
nor does it invite subscription for securities or other financial
products.
General Disclosure
The research analyst who prepared this research report was Simon Bowler. The
research analyst is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA.
The research analysts who prepared this investment recommendation receives
compensation based upon various factors (such as the general perception of the
analyst's ability and commitment to their analytical work) and upon the overall
revenues including the investment banking revenues and trading revenues of Numis
and/or one or more of its affiliates.
Numis and/or one or more of its affiliates may receive or may seek to receive
compensation for investment banking services from AO World, ASOS, B&M
European Value Retail, H&T Group, Lookers, Motorpoint, Mothercare, Ocado, Pets
at Home, Superdry and Vivo Energy in the next 3 months.
Numis has received compensation for investment banking services from AO World,
ASOS, B&M European Value Retail, H&T Group, Lookers, Motorpoint, Mothercare,
Ocado, Pets at Home, Superdry and Vivo Energy in the past 12 months.
Numis and/or one or more of its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public
offering for ASOS, Ocado and Superdry in the past 12 months.
No part of the content of this research report may be copied, forwarded or duplicated
in any form or by any means without the prior consent of Numis and Numis accepts
no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Numis research is being produced in accordance with COBS 12.2 as NonIndependent Research.
The following disclosures are addressed to
US-based recipients.
Analyst Certification
The analyst hereby certifies that all of the views expressed herein accurately reflect
the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject security and/or issuer
at the date of original publication of this document.
The research analyst who prepared this research report also certifies that no part
of the analyst's compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst in the research report.
Important Disclosure
This research report has been prepared and approved by Numis Securities Limited
("Numis"), a securities dealer in the United Kingdom. Numis is not a registered
brokerdealer in the United States and therefore is not subject to U.S. rules regarding
the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts.
This research report is provided in the United States for distribution solely to "major
U.S. institutional investors" in reliance on the exemption from registration provided
by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Any
recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell
securities or related financial instruments based on the information provided in this
research report should do so only through Numis Securities Inc. ("Numis Inc.").
Numis Inc. may be contacted in writing or by phone: Numis Securities Inc., 575
Fifth Avenue, 25th Floor, New York, NY 10017, U.S. phone (212) 277 7300. Numis
Inc. is an affiliate of Numis. Under no circumstances should any recipient effect any
transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments through Numis.
Numis Inc. accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to
the terms set out below, to the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than
a major U.S. institutional investor.
Numis, Numis Inc. and/or their affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may
have or have had interests, or long or short positions, and may at any time make
purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the subject companies mentioned or
referred to in this report.
Additional Disclosure
This Numis Securities Limited ("Numis") research report is for distribution only under
such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This research report
has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular
needs of any specific recipient, even if sent only to a single recipient. This research
report is offered solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as
a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments,
nor is it to be construed as a recommendation for Numis to effect any transaction
to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments on behalf of any recipient.
There is no express or implied understanding between Numis or Numis Securities
Inc. ("Numis Inc.") and any recipient of this research report that Numis will receive
any commission income in connection with this research report. The securities
that may be described in this research report may not be eligible for sale in all
jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research report is based on
information believed to be reliable, but it has not been independently verified and is
not guaranteed as being accurate. This research report is not guaranteed to be a
complete statement or summary of any securities, markets, reports or developments
referred to in this research report.
Any statements or opinions expressed in this research report are subject to change
without notice and Numis is not under any obligation to update or keep current
the information contained herein. All statements and opinions expressed in this
research report are made as of the date of this research report and are not held out
as applicable thereafter. Neither Numis nor any of its directors, officers, employees,
or agents shall have any liability, however arising, for any error, inaccuracy or
incompleteness of fact or opinion in this research report or lack of care in this
research report's preparation or publication; provided that this shall not exclude
liability to the extent that this is impermissible under the law relating to UK financial
services.
Investing in any non-U.S. securities or related financial instruments (including
ADRs) discussed in this research report may present certain risks. The securities
of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the regulation
of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Information on such non-U.S.
securities or related financial instruments may be limited. Foreign corporations are
typically not subject to audit and reporting standards and regulatory requirements
comparable to those in effect within the United States.
Past performance is not an indication or guarantee of future performance and no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Numis with respect to
future performance. The value of any investment or income from any securities or
related financial instruments discussed in this research report is subject to volatility
and can fall as well as rise. Investors may not get back the full amount they originally
invested. The value of any investment or income from any securities or related
financial instruments discussed in this research report denominated in a currency
other than U.S. dollars is subject to exchange rate fluctuations that may have a
positive or adverse effect on the value of or income from any securities or related
financial instruments discussed in this research report.
The following disclosures are addressed to
non-US-based recipients.
Numis regards this document as an investment recommendation. It has been
approved under part IV article 19 of The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
(Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “FPO”) by Numis Securities Limited (“Numis”)
for communication in the United Kingdom only to investment professionals as
that term is defined in article 19(5) of the FPO. Its contents are not directed at,
may not be suitable for and should not be relied on by anyone who is not an
investment professional including retail clients. Numis does not provide investment
advisory services to retail clients. This investment recommendation is not directed
at you if Numis is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any
jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before
reading it that Numis is permitted to provide investment recommendations to you
under relevant legislation and regulations. This investment recommendation is
not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It does not constitute
a personal recommendation and recipients must satisfy themselves that any
dealing is appropriate in the light of their own understanding, appraisal of risk and
reward, objectives, experience, and financial and operational resources. It has not
been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the
independence of research. Non independent research is not subject under the
Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (“MiFID”) to any prohibition on dealing
ahead of the dissemination of research. However, Numis is required by the FCA
to have policies in place to identify and manage the conflicts of interest which may
arise in its production, which include preventing dealing ahead. The prices of the
investments referred to in this investment recommendation and the income from
them may go down as well as up and investors may realise losses on them. Neither
past performance nor forecasts are a reliable indicator of future results. Numis
accepts no fiduciary duties to the reader of this investment recommendation and
in communicating it Numis is not acting in a fiduciary capacity. Neither Numis nor
any of its directors, officers, employees, or agents shall have any liability, however
arising, for any error, inaccuracy or incompleteness of fact or opinion in this research
report or lack of care in this research report's preparation or publication; provided
that this shall not exclude liability to the extent that this is impermissible under the
law relating to UK financial services.
All statements and opinions are made as of the time and date on the face of
this document and are not held out as applicable thereafter. Numis makes no
commitment to any planned frequency of updates to investment recommendations.
Investment recommendations carry the date and time of dissemination. In the
absence of contrary words, Numis considers that an investment recommendation
is only completed at the point at which it is disseminated. Where a price is quoted in
an investment recommendation it will generally, in the absence of contrary words,
be the latest practicable price prior to distribution. Unless otherwise stated, prices in
this investment recommendation are derived from quotations on the London Stock
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
23
6 February 2022
Buy
Add
Hold
Reduce
Sell
Total
56.2%
20.0%
20.3%
2.5%
1.0%
100%
Valuation, Key Assumptions and Risks
In longer investment recommendations, typically over four pages, details relating
to valuation (including material information about proprietary models), key
assumptions and risks will typically be included in the document. For other
investment recommendations please refer to www.numiscorp.com/x/researchsector.html for this information, the relevant company section of the Numis website.
Ratings Key
services
79.1%
17.9%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
100%
57.8%
21.4%
17.6%
1.7%
1.4%
100%
The above table shows the split
of recommendations based on
all recommendations during
the last calendar quarter for
all securities and within each
category the proportion of
issuers to which Numis supplied
material banking services.
For a list of all ratings on any financial instrument or issuer disseminated by the
Research Department of Numis Securities Ltd. during the preceding 12-month
period, please refer to www.numiscorp.com/x/mars.html. On request, the Numis
Securities Ltd Compliance Department will provide a list of all ratings disseminated
by other employees of Numis Securities Ltd.
The following graphs display the three year rating, target price and share price
history for the subject corporation(s) of this investment recommendation. In those
instances, where the subject corporation(s) have been publicly traded for less than
three years, the graph will show the history since the date the subject corporation(s)
were admitted to trading. Prices in the graph(s) below are in pence unless otherwise
stated.
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Auto1
Buy
60
50
Add
40
Hold
30
Reduce
20
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Jun'19
Oct'19
10
Sector Notes (mentioning 6 or more companies)
Our sector notes may contain references to information on companies (e.g. target
prices and recommendations) which has already been published by us (see our
website at www.numiscorp.com/x/research-sector.html) and consequently, details
of our assumptions, the material investment risks and/or the basis for each
company.s target price may not be repeated in these sector notes.
83.0%
12.6%
4.4%
0.0%
0.0%
100%
The above table shows the
split of recommendations
based on the last
recommendation for each
research stock during the last
four calendar quarters.
Mar'19
Exchange. A list of significant items which could create a conflict of interest and
other material interests in relation to investment recommendations, together with
Numis’s policy for managing such conflicts of interest, is set out on the Numis
website (www.numis.com/Legal-and-Regulatory).
Numis or one or more of its associates or a director or an employee of Numis or of
an associate may from time to time have a position, or may have undertaken or may
undertake an own-account transaction, in a security referred to in this document or
in a related security. Such a position or such a transaction may relate to the market
making activities of Numis or to other activities of Numis.
Numis or one or more of its associates may from time to time have a broking,
advisory or other relationship with a company which is the subject of or referred
to in this investment recommendation, including acting as that company’s official
or sponsoring broker and providing corporate finance or other financial services.
It is the policy of Numis to seek to act as corporate adviser or broker to many
of the companies which are covered by the Research Department. Accordingly
companies covered in any investment recommendation may be the subject of
marketing initiatives by the Investment Banking Department.
Numis acts as a market maker (as defined in point (7) of Article 4(1) of Directive
2015/65/EU) in the subject company of this report. Additionally, at any time Numis
may have a long or short position in the companies mentioned in this investment
recommendation, and may have received customer orders to buy or sell instruments
in the companies mentioned in this investment recommendation. If Numis holds a
long position of >0.5% or a short position of <-0.5% in the subject company of an
investment recommendation, this is separately disclosed.
A company covered in this investment recommendation may have paid for an
analyst’s reasonable expenses to visit their premises or offered modest hospitality
or entertainment; further details are available on request.
Unless otherwise clearly specified in this document, the author(s) of this document
does not own a long or short position in the issuer, whether received or purchased
before or subsequent to a public offering of such shares.
Investment recommendations will specifically identify sources of information for
material facts, where these are not regulatory company announcements and
published company financial documents. In those cases (but not otherwise) where
the subject company has seen a draft of the investment recommendation and has
suggested factual amendments which are incorporated by the analyst, this will be
noted on the investment recommendation.
The archive of investment recommendations, available to all clients who normally
receive Numis investment recommendations, is available on the Numis website
(www.numiscorp.com/x/research-sector.html).
Numis accepts no responsibility whatever for any failure by a person resident
outside the United Kingdom to observe the foregoing. No part of the content of any
research material may be copied, forwarded or duplicated in any form or by any
means without the prior consent of Numis and Numis accepts no liability whatsoever
for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Numis believes that its research service as a whole amounts to ‘substantive
research’ as defined by the FCA.
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
AO World
Buy
600
500
Add
400
Hold
300
200
Reduce
100
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Jan'22
Sep'21
May'21
Jan'21
Sep'20
May'20
Jan'20
Sep'19
May'19
0
Feb'19
A target price is set with a 12 month horizon from the time of publication. In making
a rating the analyst should compare their target price with the actual share price and
then make a rating derived from the percentage thus calculated:
As from 14 February 2005, the formula is:
Buy
>= +20%
Add
>= +10% to +19.99%
Hold
0% to +/-9.99%
Reduce
<= -10% to -19.99%
Sell
<= -20%
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Upon the initial establishment of a rating and target price for a company, an
additional 10 % deviation in the price from the default bands set out above is
permitted before the rating has to be changed in subsequently published investment
recommendations.
Distribution of Ratings
US Requirement
01/01/2021 - 31/12/2021
All
Corporate
Securities
Clients
24
UK Requirement
01/10/2021 - 31/12/2021
All
Firms
Securities
provided with
material
banking
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
ASOS
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
8000
7000
Add
6000
DFS Furniture
Buy
350
5000
Hold
4000
300
Add
3000
Reduce
2000
250
Hold
200
1000
Feb'22
150
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Created By BlueMatrix
Jun'20
100
Feb'20
Target Price
Oct'19
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
0
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
B&M European Value Retail
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
900
800
Add
700
600
Hold
500
400
Reduce
Dunelm Group
Buy
2000
1800
Add
1600
1400
Hold
1200
300
800
Feb'22
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Created By BlueMatrix
Jun'20
600
Feb'20
Target Price
Oct'19
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
1000
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
200
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Boohoo
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
600
500
Add
400
Hold
300
200
Reduce
H&T Group
Buy
550
500
Add
450
400
Hold
350
100
Feb'22
250
200
Sell
Source: Numis Securities Research
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Created By BlueMatrix
150
Feb'20
Target Price
Oct'19
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
300
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
0
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Seraphine
Buy
350
300
Add
250
Hold
200
Reduce
150
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
100
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
25
6 February 2022
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Inchcape
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
1200
1000
Add
800
Hold
Marks & Spencer
Buy
350
300
Add
250
600
400
Feb'22
100
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Created By BlueMatrix
Oct'20
50
Jun'20
Target Price
Feb'20
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
150
Reduce
Oct'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
200
200
Jun'19
Sell
Hold
Mar'19
Reduce
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Just Eat Takeaway
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
12000
10000
Add
8000
Hold
6000
4000
Reduce
Moonpig
Buy
550
500
Add
450
Hold
400
2000
Feb'22
300
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Created By BlueMatrix
Jun'20
250
Feb'20
Target Price
Oct'19
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
350
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
0
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Kingfisher
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
400
350
Add
300
Hold
250
200
Reduce
Motorpoint
Buy
500
450
Add
400
350
Hold
300
150
200
Feb'22
Sell
Source: Numis Securities Research
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Created By BlueMatrix
150
Feb'20
Target Price
Oct'19
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Price
250
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
100
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Lookers
Buy
160
140
Add
120
100
Hold
80
60
Reduce
40
20
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
0
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
26
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
6 February 2022
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Mothercare
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
30
25
Add
20
Hold
15
10
Reduce
Deliveroo
Buy
500
450
Add
400
350
Hold
300
5
Feb'22
150
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Created By BlueMatrix
Oct'20
100
Jun'20
Target Price
Feb'20
Oct'21
200
Oct'19
Price
250
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
0
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Next
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
11000
10000
Add
9000
Superdry
Buy
1000
8000
Hold
7000
800
Add
6000
Reduce
5000
600
Hold
400
4000
Feb'22
Sell
Recommendation
Source: Numis Securities Research
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Created By BlueMatrix
Oct'20
0
Jun'20
Target Price
Feb'20
Oct'21
200
Oct'19
Price
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
3000
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Ocado
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Buy
4000
3500
Add
3000
2500
Hold
2000
1500
Reduce
The Hut Group
Buy
900
800
Add
700
600
Hold
500
1000
Feb'22
200
Sell
Source: Numis Securities Research
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Created By BlueMatrix
100
Jun'20
Target Price
Feb'20
Oct'21
300
Oct'19
Price
400
Reduce
Jun'19
Recommendation
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
500
Mar'19
Sell
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Pets at Home
Buy
700
600
Add
500
Hold
400
300
Reduce
200
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Jan'22
Sep'21
May'21
Jan'21
Sep'20
May'20
Jan'20
Sep'19
May'19
Feb'19
100
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities
27
6 February 2022
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Victorian Plumbing
Buy
350
300
Add
250
Hold
200
150
Reduce
100
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
50
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
Vivo Energy
Buy
200
180
Add
160
140
Hold
120
100
Reduce
80
Sell
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
Oct'21
Jun'21
Feb'21
Oct'20
Jun'20
Feb'20
Oct'19
Jun'19
Mar'19
60
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
Three Year - Recommendation, Target Price, Share History
About You
Recommendation
Price
Feb'22
15
Oct'21
Sell
Jun'21
20
Feb'21
Reduce
Oct'20
25
Jun'20
Hold
Feb'20
30
Oct'19
Add
Jun'19
35
Mar'19
Buy
Target Price
Created By BlueMatrix
Source: Numis Securities Research
28
Registered No 02285918. Authorised and Regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. A Member of the London Stock Exchange
This report is prepared solely for the use of Hugo Hewitt of Numis Securities