Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
The Global Outlook for PHEVs: Business Issues,
Technology Issues, Key Players, and Market Forecasts The electrification of the automobile has been slowly
progressing over the last 10 years, ever since the arguably
false start in the late 1990s. While hybrid electric vehicles
(HEVs) have been proliferating recently, a new breed is on
the verge of launching: the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
(PHEV). Promising dramatically improved fuel economy,
PHEVs have come about largely from the convergence of
two technologies: HEVs and lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries.
A mix of consumer demand and government incentives is
fueling the development of PHEVs. Governments are
encouraging improved fuel economy either implicitly by
regulating it, as in the United States, or by charging high fuel
taxes or limits on vehicle emissions, as in Europe. In
addition, automakers are counting on consumers who have demonstrated strong interest in HEVs to show similar
willingness to purchase PHEVs. Pike Research forecasts that PHEV programs will initially focus on the small car
segment (80% of sales in 2015), followed closely by the small SUV segment (10% of sales by 2015). By 2015, we
anticipate the U.S. will be the largest market for HEVs and PHEVs, selling approximately 640,000 vehicles in these two
categories combined. China will be the second-largest market with more than 560,000 hybrid vehicles sold that same
year. By that time, Pike Research forecasts that there will be a total of 1.7 million PHEVs on the roads globally.
This Pike Research report analyzes the emerging PHEV market with a focus on business issues and demand drivers,
technology issues such as the use of advanced batteries and the need for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, the
effects of regulatory standards and government incentives around the world, and an in-depth assessment of major OEMs’
PHEV programs. Detailed market data and forecasts include PHEV sales and registrations for world markets, sales
figures for the total light vehicle and HEV markets to provide context for these numbers, and projected PHEV market
shares for selected manufacturers.
KEY MARKET FORECASTS:
TECHNOLOGIES:
MARKETS:
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Annual Light Vehicle Production, World Markets: 20062015
Annual Light Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
Total Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales, World Markets:
2006-2015
Total PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
PHEV Sales by Segment, United States: 2010-2015
PHEV Registrations by Region, World Markets: 20092015
Global Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 20072015
Global Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 2007-2015
Global PHEV Market Share for Selected Manufacturers:
2009-2015
Global PHEV Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 20092015
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Hybrid drivetrains: series,
parallel, mild, full
Hybrid vehicles (HEV)
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
(PHEV)
Extended range electric vehicles
(EREV)
Electric vehicles (EV)
Batteries: Lithium Ion (Li-ion),
Lithium Titanate, Nickel Metal
Hydride (NiMH), Ultracapacitors,
Lead Acid batteries
Recharging: regenerative
braking, infrastructure needs,
smart grid technologies
Automakers
Auto Suppliers
Battery Manufacturers/Suppliers
Government Environmental Agencies
Environmental Trade Groups
GEOGRAPHIES:
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North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Middle East/Africa
TABLE OF CONTENTS:
1.
Executive Summary
2.
Market Issues
4.2 Government Emissions Regulations
4.2.1
United States
4.2.1.1 CAFÉ Standards
4.2.1.2 EPA Emissions Limitations
4.2.2
Canada
4.2.3
Mexico
4.2.4
Europe
4.2.5
Japan
4.2.6
China
4.2.7
India
2.1 History
2.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
2.2.1
PHEVs by Vehicle Type
2.2.1.1 Passenger Cars
2.2.1.2 Light Trucks
2.2.2
Competition from Chinese Manufacturers
2.3 Product Demand vs. Development
2.3.1
Other “Green” Vehicle Technologies
2.3.1.1 Battery Electric Vehicles
2.3.1.2 Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles
2.3.1.3 Fuel Cell Vehicles
2.3.2
Chrysler and General Motors Bankruptcy
Impact on PHEV Development
2.3.3
Automotive X-Prize
2.3.4
Urban Planning Impact on Automobile
Development
3.
4.3 Government Incentives
4.3.1
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
(ARRA)
4.3.2
Canada
4.3.3
Europe
4.3.4
Japan
4.3.5
China
4.3.6
Other Regulatory Incentives
5.
5.1 Original Equipment Manufacturers
5.1.1
BMW/Mini
5.1.2
Chinese Manufacturers
5.1.3
Chrysler
5.1.4
Daimler
5.1.5
Ford Motor Co.
5.1.6
Fiat
5.1.7
General Motors
5.1.8
Honda
5.1.9
Hyundai/Kia
5.1.10 Mitsubishi
5.1.11 Nissan/Renault
5.1.12 PSA Peugeot/Citroen
5.1.13 Toyota Motor Corp.
5.1.14 Volkswagen/Audi
Technology Issues
3.1 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Drivetrains
3.1.1
Terminology Defined
3.1.2
Parallel Hybrid Design
3.1.2.1 Belt Alternator Start
3.1.2.2 Mild Hybrids
3.1.2.3 Full Hybrids
3.1.3
Series Hybrid Design/Extended Range
Electric Vehicle
3.2 Battery Technology
3.2.1
Battery Chemistry
3.2.1.1 Lead Acid Batteries
3.2.1.2 Nickel-Sodium Chloride Batteries
3.2.1.3 Nickel Metal Hydride Batteries
3.2.1.4 Lithium Ion Batteries
3.2.1.5 Lithium Titanate Batteries
3.2.1.6 Growing Geopolitical Concerns with
Lithium and Other Advanced Battery
Chemicals
3.2.2
Safety Concerns
5.2 Key Suppliers
5.2.1
A123 Systems
5.2.2
Cobasys
5.2.3
Eaton Corp.
5.2.4
EnergyCS (Battery Management Systems)
5.2.5
Enova Systems, Inc.
5.2.6
GS Yuasa
5.2.7
Johnson Controls-Saft
5.2.8
LG Chemical/Compact Power
5.2.9
National Alliance for Advanced Transportation
Battery Cell Manufacture (NAATBCM)
5.2.10 Panasonic EV Energy
3.3 Ultracapacitors
3.4 Regenerative Braking
3.5 Recharging Infrastructure
3.5.1
Electric Utilities and Smart Grid
Technologies
3.5.2
Vehicle Electronics and Engine Monitoring
4.
Demand Drivers
4.1 Market-Based Demand
4.1.1
Fuel Prices
4.1.1.1 Hypermiling
4.1.2
Consumer Preference
4.1.2.1 Niche Manufacturers
4.1.3
Global Warming and Peal Oil Awareness
Key Industry Players
6.
Market Forecasts
6.1 Global Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2006-2015
6.1.1
United States and Canada
6.1.2
Latin America
6.1.3
Europe
6.1.4
Asia Pacific
6.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Forecast: 2006-2015
6.2.1
HEV Forecast
6.2.2
PHEV Forecast
6.2.3
HEV and PHEV Forecast for the Rest of the World
6.3 PHEV Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment, United States:
2015
6.4 PHEV Registrations Forecast: 2009-2015
6.4.1
North America
6.4.2
Europe
6.4.3
Asia Pacific
6.5 Global Market Share Forecasts for Selected
Manufacturers
6.5.1
Selected OEM PHEV Market Share
Forecasts: 2010, 2015
6.5.1.1 Toyota Motor Corp. Market Share
Forecasts: 2010-2015
6.5.1.2 General Motors Market Share
Forecasts: 2010-2015
6.5.1.3 Ford Motor Co. Market Share
Forecasts: 2010-2015
6.6 Summary and Conclusions
7.
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11.
Company Directory
Acronym and Abbreviation List
Table of Contents
Table of Charts and Figures
Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
TABLE OF TABLES:
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TABLE OF CHARTS & FIGURES:
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Total Hybrid Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World Markets:
2007-2015
HEV and PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2007-2015
PHEV Sales by Segment, United Sates: 2015
Global Lithium Reserves Base by Country: 2005
Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
Vehicle Sales, United States and Canada: 2006-2015
Vehicle Sales, Latin America: 2006-2015
Vehicle Sales, Western and Eastern Europe: 2006-2015
Vehicle Sales, China, Japan, and India: 2006-2015
HEV Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
Total Hybrid Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World Markets:
2007-2015
PHEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: 2015
PHEV Registrations Forecast, World Markets: 2009-2015
Selected OEM Global Market Shares, World Markets:
2007, 2009, 2015
Selected OEM PHEV Market Shares, World Markets:
2010, 2015
Typical State of Charge for Plug-in Hybrid Electric
Vehicles
Series and Parallel Hybrid Drivetrains Diagram
Peak Oil Curve – World Oil Production (Crude Oil + NGL)
and Forecasts (1940-2050)
Annual Automobile Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) per
Capita: 1997
PHEV Product Plans, North America: 2010-2012 &
Beyond
PHEV Product Plans, Europe: 2010-2012 & Beyond
PHEV Product Plans, Asia Pacific: 2010-2012 & Beyond
Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicle Range
Lithium Production, Country Markets: 2005
Annual Growth in Light Vehicle Production, World Markets:
2007-2015
Annual Light Vehicle Production, World Markets: 2006-2015
Annual Growth in Total Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 20072015
Annual Vehicle Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
HEV Sales Growth Rate, World Markets: 2007-2015
HEV Sales, World Markets: 2006-2015
PHEV Sales Growth Rate, World Markets: 2010-2015
PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
Total Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales (HEVs and PHEVs) Growth
Rate, World Markets: 2007-2015
Total Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales (HEVs and PHEVs), World
Markets: 2006-2015
PHEV Sales by Segment, United Sates: 2010-2015
PHEV Registration Growth Rates by Region, World Markets:
2010-2015
PHEV Registrations by Region, World Markets: 2009-2015
Global Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 2007-2015
Global Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 2007-2015
Global PHEV Market Share for Selected Manufacturers: 20092015
Global PHEV Sales for Selected Manufacturers: 2009-2015
PHEV Sales, World Markets: 2009-2015
700,000
600,000
Sales (Vehicles)
500,000
Africa/Middle East
Asia Pacific
400,000
Eastern Europe
300,000
Western Europe
Latin America
200,000
North America
100,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(Source: Pike Research)
KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED:
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What HEV and PHEV programs are planned for the next few years?
What are the consumer acceptance issues associated with PHEVs?
How will the PHEV market be segmented between different vehicle
classes?
What are the key technologies used in HEVs and PHEVs?
How big are the HEV and PHEV markets and how large are these markets
expected to grow?
What are the key drivers of growth in the HEV and PHEV markets?
What will be the effects of regulatory standards and government incentives
on the emerging PHE V market?
Who are the key industry players in the HEV and PHEV markets?
How will the adoption of PHEVs vary by world region?
WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT?
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OEM Vehicle Marketing Managers
Vehicle Component Suppliers
Battery Manufacturers
Government Environmental Agencies
Government Transportation Agencies
Environmental Transportation Advocacy Groups
Vehicle Trade Associations
Utility Managers
Investor Community
REPORT DETAILS:
Price:
$2500
Pages:
61
Tables, Charts,
Figures:
42
Release Date:
3Q 2009
TO ORDER THIS REPORT:
Phone:
+1 303 997 7609
Email:
sales@pikeresearch.com