ADAPTATIO PLAIG FRAMEWORK TO CLIMATE CHAGE
FOR THE URBA AREA OF HO CHI MIH CITY, VIETAM
Dr. Harry Storch, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Department of Environmental Planning, Cottbus,
Germany, storch@tu-cottbus.de
Nigel Downes, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Department of Environmental Planning, Cottbus,
Germany, downes@tu-cottbus.de
PD Dr. rer. nat. habil. Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Development (IOER)
Dresden, Germany, ng.thinh@ioer.de
Dr. Hans-Peter Thamm, Free University Berlin, Institute of Geographical Sciences, Department of Remote Sensing
and Geoinformation, Berlin, Germany, hp.thamm@gmail.com
Ho Long Phi, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, hlphi@hcmut.edu.vn
Prof. Dr. Tran Thuc, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Institute of Meteorology,
Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), Hanoi, Vietnam, thuc@netnam.vn
Dr. Nguyen Thi Hien Thuan, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Institute of Meteorology,
Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), Hanoi, Vietnam, hienthuan@vkttv.edu.vn
Prof. Dr. Guenter Emberger, Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Transportation, Research Center of
Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering, Vienna, Austria, guenter.emberger@tuwien.ac.uk
Manfred Goedecke, AG Goedecke & Welsch, Berlin, Germany, manfred.goedecke@gmail.com
Joern Welsch, AG Goedecke & Welsch, Berlin, Germany, joern.welsch@gmail.com
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Michael Schmidt, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Department of Environmental
Planning, Cottbus, Germany, michael.schmidt@tu-cottbus.de
Summary:
Situated in an intra-tropical and low elevation coastal zone, the developing megacity of Ho Chi
Minh City is vulnerable to many of the adverse impacts of the present and future changes in
climate. In consideration of climate change and urban development interrelations, the research
case for adapting to climate change and the risks and opportunities of adaptation are set out.
Based on the in-depth assessment of the vulnerability of Ho Chi Minh City, the categorized
urban environment in form of a spatially explicit information system will act as a matrix for the
formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies for future development and redevelopment
policies. The resulting Adaptation Planning Framework should form the future basis for
spatially-explicit decision-making processes related to sustainable urban planning and
development in HCMC.
Key Words: Adaptation Planning, Spatial Information System, Climate Change, Urban Structure
Type Approach, Urban Climate, Urban Flooding, Vietnam, South-East-Asia.
Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
ADAPTATIO PLAIG FRAMEWORK TO CLIMATE CHAGE
FOR THE URBA AREA OF HO CHI MIH CITY, VIETAM
I. ITRODUCTIO
The overall objective is to develop and incorporate adaptation into urban decision-making and
planning processes with designation criteria and zones that will lead to an increase in the
resilience to climate-related physical and social vulnerabilities for the urban system of Ho Chi
Minh City (HCMC). Climate Change will likely change current climate conditions and lead to
ongoing sea level rise and increase in extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and heat
waves. These climate related events cause a multitude of potential impacts and risks not only to
natural areas but specifically to the populations of densely built up metropolitan areas. In the
foreseeable future these events may also cause indirect negative effects such as severe urban
flooding or disturbances to the urban energy supply or public transport systems. The main task of
assessing climate change related impacts on urban areas is to estimate the possible damages that
might arise for anthropogenically-influenced systems by a changing climate, including extreme
weather events. In general there are two elements that define the potential risk: first, the
probability of the occurrence of the events and, second the “elements” at risk. Events to be
included are heat waves, heavy rainfall events, floods etc, while "elements” at risk are not only
assets such as houses, urban infrastructure services or economic losses, but also human health
and livelihoods.
II. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHAGE O VIETAM
Climate change represents one of the greatest challenges facing mega-urban regions in coastal
areas of Southeast Asia. To meet this challenge the highly industrialised countries of Europe,
North-America and Australia, have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless all
high-risk countries, such as Vietnam, have to recognise that some impacts of global climate
change are unavoidable. As such there is an urgent need at present to start adapting mega-urban
regions to the current impacts of extreme weather events and the predicted impacts of climate
change to which they are likely to be confronted in the future. With more than half of Vietnam’s
population now living in low elevation coastal zones, coastal urban settlements are becoming
increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Over the past fifty years the annual average temperature in Vietnam has increased approximately
0.6 to 0.7 °C. While at the same time recorded sea level at the Hon Dau station has been seen to
rise approximately 20 cm. Furthermore, to date the effects of climate change on Vietnam have
been seen to contribute to increased precipitation in the traditional rainy season (September to
November) and an increase in heavy rainfall events causing severe flooding (especially in
Central and Southern Vietnam). On the other hand, precipitation has been seen to decrease in the
dry season and it is now more frequent and widespread for droughts to occur annually in most
regions of Vietnam. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation which also displays strong effects on the
weather and the climate of Vietnam, and the effects of climate change have already been held
accountable for several natural disasters, especially typhoons, floods and droughts.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
1. The Vietnamese ational Target Program in response to Climate Change
The strategic objectives of the Vietnamese Nation Target Program are to assess the climate
change impacts on sectors and regions and to develop feasible action plans to effectively respond
to climate change both in the short and long-term as well as to the ensure the overall sustainable
development of Vietnam. In addition, the program strives to take opportunities to develop
towards a low-carbon economy and to join the international community’s efforts in mitigating
climate change and protecting the climatic system.
In more detail the objectives are as follows:
• to identify the extent of climate change in Vietnam due to global climate change and to
assess climate change impacts on sector, area and locality
• to identify measures to respond to climate change
• to promote scientific and technological activities to establish the scientific and practical basis
for climate change responsive measures
• to consolidate and enhance the organisational structure, institutional capacity and the
development and implementation of policies in response to climate change
• to enhance public awareness, responsibility and participation; and to develop human
resources to respond to climate change
• to promote international cooperation to obtain external support in response to climate change
• to mainstream climate change issues into socio-economic, sectoral and local development
strategies, plans and planning
• to develop and implement action plans of ministries, sectors and localities to respond to
climate change
• to develop and implement projects
2. The Development of Climate Change Scenarios for Vietnam
The Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) recommends that a range of Special
Reports Emission scenarios (SRES), with a variety of assumptions regarding driving forces are
used in any climate change analysis. The IPCC provides a selection of more than forty such
scenarios on world development and emissions, with the different socio-economic assumptions
underlying the SRES scenarios resulting in different levels of future greenhouse gasses and
aerosols emissions.
For the analysis of climate change scenarios for Vietnam six scenarios groups were used. The
three scenario families were A2 (Heterogeneous world: Each region will develop by putting a
value on its culture and tradition); B1 (World with sustainable development: reductions in
material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies); and B2
(World of local self reliance: Each region will put emphasis on local solutions to economic,
social and environmental sustainability). In addition three scenario groups from the A1 scenario
family (World with rapid economic growth: Rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technologies) A1B 1FI and A1T were used. The climate change scenarios (temperature,
precipitation, sea level rise) based on the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios can also be
classified as:
• A1FI, A2 : High emission scenarios
• B2, A1B : Medium emission scenarios
• A1T, B1 : Low emission scenarios
Through the statistical downscaling of global climate models using MAGICC/SCENGEN
software, temperatures increases for Vietnam for the high emission scenarios where predicted to
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
be 4.0 ºC to 4.5 ºC higher in 2100 relative to 1990 levels, while for the low emission scenarios a
temperature increase of 2 ºC to 2,2 ºC is foreseen. In regards to precipitation variation in 2100
relative to 1990 levels, a 10-15% increase in the North and a 5-10% increase in the South were
envisaged from high emission scenarios while low emission scenarios yield a 5-10% increase in
the North and a 2-5% increase in the South respectively. Furthermore during the rainy season,
the highest raise in precipitation, 10-20% for the high emission scenarios and 7-10% for the low
emission scenarios were predicted for Southern Vietnam. Additionally in regards to precipitation
during the dry season, in 2100 an increase of 35% is forecast for North Vietnam and a decease of
20% for South Vietnam relative to 1990 levels.
The model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) developed by the
MetOffice (UK); has also been applied for regional climate modelling (RCM) in Vietnam to
generate detailed climate simulations. The results are a set of climate change scenarios for
Vietnam in which temperature is often seen to be by 2050, 1.5ºC higher in the Northern
mountainous areas and Central highlands relative to the 1960-1999 periods. While by 2100:
temperature is seen to rise by 3ºC relative to the 1980-1999 period for all climatic zones. At the
same time, precipitation by 2050 is seen to increase 5-10% relative to 1980-1999 levels in the
North and by 0-5% in the South of Vietnam, while some areas in the Central Highlands and the
South may actually received reduced rainfall. By 2100, rainfall is seen to increase 10-15%
relative to 1980-1999 levels in most areas of the North. An increase of up to 10% is expected in
the South, while precipitation may also be reduced in some areas by up to 5% such as the North
Central Highlands and the most southern areas of the country. The developments of sea level rise
scenarios for Vietnam are seen summarized in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Sea Level Rise Scenario’s for Vietnam (in centimetres)
Emission Scenarios
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
11,6
17,3
24,4
33,4
44,4
57,1
71,1
86,1
101,7
A1FI Average 6,5
9,7
13,6
18,5
24,4
31,0
38,1
45,4
52,9
Low
2,6
3,9
5,6
7,6
10,0
12,6
15,2
17,8
20,3
High
11,7
17,1
23,2
30,1
37,6
45,8
54,5
63,8
73,7
Medium B2 Average 6,6
9,5
12,7
16,2
19,9
23,9
28,0
32,4
37,0
Low
2,6
3,7
4,9
6,1
7,4
8,7
10,1
11,5
12,9
High
11,9
17,5
23,9
30,9
38,3
45,9
53,7
61,5
69,0
B1 Average 6,7
9,7
13,0
16,5
20,1
23,7
27,2
30,5
33,6
2,7
3,8
5,0
6,2
7,4
8,5
9,4
10,2
10,8
High
High
Low
Low
Source: Prof. Tran Thuc and Associates; Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
From the table it is clear to see that within the high emission scenarios the average presumed sea
level rise by 2050 will be 18,5 cm, while the worst case scenario would be 33,4 cm. By 2050,
even the low emission scenarios on average expect sea level rise of 13 cm. By 2100, the high
emission scenarios on average predict an increase of 52,9 cm, with a worst case scenario of
101,7 cm, while the low emission scenarios expect on average a 33,6 cm sea level raise
respectively.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
3. Impacts of Climate Change on Ho Chi Minh City
Historically HCMC, as a densely built-up area in a low lying region, is sensitive to climatic
effects. It’s location in an estuarine area of the Dong Nai River system, with a high flow volume,
fifty kilometers from the South China Sea and northeast of the Mekong River Delta contribute to
this sensitivity. The city is surrounded by marshes on the lower reaches of the embedded river
system. The Saigon River, Dong Nai River, Nha Be River and Long Tau River flow through the
city. The rivers and adjoining canals form a complex network that is affected by the tide. Due to
its geographic location this flood-prone metropolitan area will always face natural hazards.
However, vulnerabilities of lives and livelihood to climate-related environmental processes are
primarily the result of inadequate and unsustainable urban planning practices associated with
complex natural settings and societal structures. This combination accumulates to a high average
level of physical and social vulnerability in most parts of HCMC.
At the same time coastal settlements in the mega-urban regions of Vietnam are important in
terms of population growth and investment and play a key economic and cultural role. Most of
Vietnam's settlements and infrastructure are concentrated in two large mega-urban regions
located in the mega-deltas regions. Over the next decades a significant amount of new urban
housing developments will be required in Vietnam. These new urban developments will shape
the spatial pattern of the urban agglomerations for many decades. It is therefore of highest
importance to plan in an integrated manner from the outset, how the spatial development
direction in general and how buildings and infrastructure in these highly vulnerable regions can
be adapted to cope with the climate change related impacts they are likely to be effected by
during their lifetime.
III. DOWSCALIG CLIMATE CHAGE IMPACTS TO THE URBA SCALE
HCMC´s settlements are integrated in an urban system that is affected by a number of internal
and external pressures. Therefore the impacts of climate change on the city, its settlements and
infrastructure should be assessed in the context of this complexity. Vulnerability to climate
change will vary considerably from settlement to settlement and even within settlements. The
location, urban structure, dominant building type, socio-economic characteristics and
institutional capacity are key factors that affect vulnerability and adaptive capacity of a
settlement in the mega-urban region.
HCMC is characterised by urban structures of both planned and informal expansions of the urban
morphology, which are both degrading valuable natural areas in the hinterland and increasing the
vulnerability of these areas to climate-related environmental changes or hazards. Additionally
exposure to and sensitivity for climate change related risks and impacts are a result of physical
processes, such as the building construction, urban planning, infrastructure provision or the
transportation, which create these hazards, as well as the human processes such as lifestyle
choices, that lead to these vulnerabilities (Clark et al., 1998).
The main task in downscaling climate change assessments on urban level is that every region has
its own urban development issues and possible adaptation options. In general, there is a
methodological gap between the regional climate change model and urban development
scenarios, which limit effective impact assessment (see Figure 1). Knowing future temperature,
precipitation and flooding trends without knowing the general urban development path, limits the
assessment of vulnerabilities of the future urban structures in relation to the future climate
conditions in a regional context.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Figure 1: Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts for Mega-Urban-Regions
Source: Storch, Downes and Moon, 2009
For regional climate change projections, extreme events are more important than average events.
It will be difficult to predict simultaneous increases in magnitude and frequency of events. For
urban development scenarios a higher degree of flexibility is required but a rigorous approach is
essential to produce spatially explicit and comparable results.
1. Urban Environmental Planning Information System
The urban environmental planning information system represents the central instrument to
integrate the requirements and measures for adaptation to climate change supported by the urban
structure type approach (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Downscaling Climate Change Impacts to the Urban Scale
Source: Storch, Downes and Moon, 2009
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
A comprehensive analysis of results from previous project phases and additional existent
planning tools, methods and processes will be the basis for the coordination and cooperation. The
main function of the urban structure type approach is to spatially link an indicator concept which
represents an interpretative method to integrate the biophysical aspect of the ‘Exposure’ to
climate change related effects with the socio-economic aspect of assessing the ‘Sensitivity’ of
people and places and environmental-related information. The urban structure type approach thus
allows a multi-disciplinary identification of core indicators for spatially explicit ’vulnerability
assessment´ procedures.
The second main function of the urban structure type approach is the definition of a commonly
accepted framework to structure HCMC into comparable types of spatial areas using the official
land-use map as the main base (see Figure 3). The concept of urban structure types is offering a
multi-disciplinarily approach. This is essential in dealing with the inherent complexity of the
urban environment in Asian Megacities.
This common spatial framework based on urban structure and morphology, supports the
necessary downscaling of climate change related impacts on urban areas. In the case of
vulnerability assessment it is a set of procedures bridging the gap between the spatial scale and
physical methods of urban environmental planning and the concerns of regionalised climate
change research practices (Pauleit & Duhme, 1998).
Figure 3: Land use map of HCMC as central component of the spatial information system
BMBF Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh (HCMC)
Project Leader:
WP:
WP Leader:
BTU Cottbus
Adaptation Planning Framework
Dr. Harry Storch
Geoprocesing:
Le Thanh Hoa (USSH, Geography Dept.)
Cartography:
Source:
Hendrik Rujner
Department of Natural Resources and
Environment HCMC
©March 2009
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
The spatial classification and subdivision of HCMC’s urban form according to urban typological
principles and derived from urban environmental indicators, offers a coherent structure to
support cross-scale investigations across household, neighbourhood, district and urban scales. In
this respect, the developed urban structure type framework defines urban areas with homogenous
characters, which integrate similar urban environmental conditions, and can provide a
classification method of the morphological situation and characteristics that can be expected in
different areas.
The urban structure type method integrates valuable urban indicators with regard to
environmental, housing, and population aspects (Storch & Schmidt, 2006). Features of built-up
areas, impervious surfaces, land use, housing types, building density, population density and
social status of urban areas can be related for every urban structural unit. Thus, the urban
structure type framework contains a whole set of biophysical and socio-economic indicators
(Banzhaf et al., 2007) to characterise the state and dynamics of the urban development in space
and time, as well as to foster planning strategies for adaptive urban development to climate
change.
Adaptation planning to Climate Change in an urban development context requires different
strategies for different settlement types because spatial planning concepts are very dependent on
the particular local urban context. Different settlement types will have different implications for
achieving the ‘vulnerability’ of different settlement and housing structures. Different disciplinespecific methodological approaches to the ‘urban environment’ require a commonly accepted
spatial working basis, which can ensure that the resulting heterogeneous investigations can be
trans-disciplinarily integrated by using an adequate spatially explicit classification.
2. A Common Spatial Framework based on Urban Structure Types
The urban structure approach is providing a uniform methodological and spatial framework for
different tasks within the interdisciplinary network of the research. Housing-related urban
development decisions require a rational characterisation of urban structural landscapes
according to structural indicators reflecting the degree of resilience and vulnerability of housing
areas in HCMC. The typology approach ensures that data integration of different sources
(remotely sensed, field-based, survey-based and map-based) with their original specific
spatial/temporal resolutions and thematic contents can be operationally integrated in the GIS
environment of the research project.
Settlement and housing types in HCMC are not uniform. Understanding these different types in
HCMC therefore becomes crucial to the urban planning debate in the field of adaptation to
climate change for this metropolitan region. It is therefore not the primary goal to develop a
general definition of settlement and housing typologies in HCMC (see Figure 4). Rather, an
analysis of the resilience and sensitivity of urban typologies in a relatively representative model
of different settlement and housing types is needed to assess the adaptive capacity of different
urban settlement and housing structures. The urban typology approach can provide a tool for the
structured and representative analysis of settlements within HCMC. Among all of the approach’s
different components, the concept of ‘vulnerability’ in the context of adaptation planning to
climate change is a key element.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Figure 4: Urban Structure Types – Example of one Definition Card
Source: Storch, Downes and Moon, 2009
3. Urban Structure Types – Redefining Urban Land Use Pattern
Commencing with the basic housing archetypes in HCMC, each were conceptually divided into
subtypes to generate urban structure types that are reflective of different biophysical exposure or
impact indicators. The most complicated structure in HCMC is represented by the shophouse
structure, which was divided into more specific subtypes to reflect the broad variety of this
predominant settlement structure, found often in the inner-districts of HCMC. Examples of the
physical building-specific indicators which were used to define the final housing typologies are
given in Figure 4. The physical boundaries of the housing typologies are defined by street
blocks. The study site is embedded within the surrounding urban fabric of the neighbourhood
pattern.
Data collected from the study sites, representative of each housing typology, will be used to
formulate values for physical resilience and exposure of the building structure based on
descriptive indicators. The neighbourhood pattern is represented as an urban puzzle within
HCMC, in which the separate urban structural units fit together to form the complete picture of
settlement developments. Figure 5 shows the differences in spatial and thematic resolution of the
structure type approach compared to the traditional urban land use classification.
Clearly, the structure and arrangement of housing areas are factors influencing exposure and
resilience to impacts of climate change in an urban spatial context. Recognition of this
connection makes it possible to re-evaluate the housing development pattern as one fundamental
determinant in the formation of urban vulnerability to climate change. If replicated on multiple
sites, the housing development pattern becomes an integral part of the urban fabric of HCMC.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Figure 5: Comparison of Urban Land Use and Urban Structure Types in the CBD of HCMC
Ho Chi Minh City Official Land Use Plan 2005
Urban Structure Type
Source: Storch, Downes, Moon and Rujner 2009
The exposure and resilience pattern for each housing development helps to determine the
ultimate vulnerability to climate change risks for the urban region. In the times of climate change
urban resilience and exposure are strongly influenced by the choices that are made regarding
which housing types to build (Storch & Schmidt, 2008).
IV. ADAPTATIO PLAIG FRAMEWORK – THEMATIC FOCUS AREAS
The objective of the adaptation planning framework with an integrated vulnerability assessment
is to inform decision-makers and the general public about climate change risks, to increase their
capacity to implement necessary adaptation measures and to strengthen the resilience of the
HCMC urban system.
The concepts of `vulnerability´ and `adaptive capacity´ aim to provide the basis for an integrated
assessment of climate-related impacts and possible adaptation options for the urban environment
of HCMC. This integrative concept is used to structure the work steps of the four selected
thematic fields of application of ‘Urban Flooding’, ‘Urban Climate’, ‘Urban Energy’ and
‘Urban Transport’.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
These thematic fields of application were selected based on following considerations:
i. The thematic fields should reflect future urban problems caused by Climate Change.
ii. The themes are reflecting current urban environmental problems and are related to current
climate extremes or variability in the metropolitan region of HCMC.
iii. The thematic fields should allow the comparison of adaptation strategies and mitigation
measures.
These shall promote vertical and horizontal feedback and loops between the integrative thematic
fields. For instance the thematic fields of urban energy and transport will require first essential
results from the analysis of the thematic fields of flooding and urban climate, to derive
adaptation strategies. An adapted urban planning system would deal more effectively with future
challenges of climate change. Spatial planning must not only take into account land use
activities, but the social, economic and environmental well-being of communities. An adapted
flexible system has therefore the capacity to promote real changes in how development is
implemented to support targets for CO2 emission reductions and to facilitate the growth of the
low carbon and renewable energy sectors, enabling change not only through development, but
through delivery mechanisms as well (Cambell, 2006). The thematic fields of energy and
transport are interrelated with urban flooding and climate (see Figure 6).
Figure 6: Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts for Mega-Urban-Regions
Adaptation
Mitigation
Land use planning
&
Flood Management
Energy
&
Transport
Spatial dimension
Source: Storch, Downes and Moon 2009
This spatial concept is the base for the framework to assess the vulnerability of the urban
environment in HCMC by reflecting exposure and sensitivity on spatially defined urban
structures between the micro- and macro-scale of the city (Haggag & Ayad, 2002). Vulnerability
assessment is a new field of application for the model of urban structure types such as their
exposure to climate-related impacts. Therefore the thematic fields Urban Flooding, Urban
Climate and Urban Energy will use this common spatial framework for the spatial definition of
their more application oriented exposure and sensitivity units (Deilmann, 2007). In this context
the urban structure types are analysed with respect to their vulnerability to these impacts. Their
physical vulnerability results in a multitude of environmental and social changes in the urban
quality of life. Using this common representation of spatial exposure to climate-related impacts
facilitates an integrated assessment of combined exposure factors.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
1. Administrative Integration
For the process of adaptation to climate change, land use planning is a key criterion for effective
strategies to deal with climate change challenges. Adaptation is unrealizable, without
improvements in the usability of scientific results for decision-making and their integration into
the planning process. In order to identify possible starting points for the integration of climate
change relevant planning requirements into the planning process, the organization of the
administration and governance structures within HCMC must be analysed. In addition, the paths
for decision making and the problems concerning the integration of environmental requirements
in the planning process must be examined. Within the HCMC administration there is profound
awareness in regards to the necessity of integrating environmental aspects and especially, the
requirements from global change into the existing planning system. Nevertheless the challenges
of climatic change require a new level of cooperation to emerge between politics and
administration between the different sectors of administration and between universities, planners
and decision makers in general.
To identify and estimate the local risks arising from climate change, the project supports the
HCMC administration to establish a well-founded data base with reliable information. The
organization of the access rights to the data and the process of data exchange between different
sectors of the administration are important challenges in this context, not only in technical sense,
but even more so an administrative respect. On the basis of such data, maps incorporating
planning advice in reference to measures (restrictions, bans, conditions and development
objectives) can be developed.
The envisaged Atlas of HCMC would assist greatly in this connection. It is a great advantage for
the realization of adaptation strategies that the Department of Natural Recourses and
Environment (DoNRE) wishes to integrate the results of the project into the planned atlas and
into the new land use plan. The land use plan level is the critical level to realize adaptation
strategies into spatial planning. As a first step, available data for urban climate and urban
flooding are in the process of being collected and the usability of these data sets for spatial
planning have to be improved. In this process it is very important, that harmonized indicators and
quality targets must be worked out in a process of discussion and in cooperation between all
partners of the planning process, the political decision makers, as well as the scientists and the
urban planners.
2. Urban Flooding
Urban flooding in HCMC has in the recent decades become one of the most pressing issues. The
consequences of current and future urban flooding to the mega urban region of HCMC are
manifold, with adverse impacts that may include; loss of life and personal injury, direct damage
to property, infrastructure and utilities, contamination and disease from flood and sewer water,
loss of income and delayed economic development, break up of communities and social
connectivity, poor mental health (depression and anxiety) and physical health, blight of land and
development and increase costs for insurance (increased premiums/reduced cover/increased
excess levels).
The research objectives are therefore;
i.
to determine conflict areas and vulnerability of different flooding situations within
HCMC,
ii.
to compile flood hazard maps for HCMC, and finally
iii. to develop strategies and measures for efficient flood risk management.
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Hereby one has to distinguish between hazard and risk maps. The hazard map describes the
spatial distribution of flood damages for previous events, whereas the risk map displays the
possible damage with a given probability of occurrence.
The majority of the actual urbanised land within HCMC lies only two to three meters above the
current sea level. This low elevation and the occurrence of heavy rainfall events make the city
susceptible to flooding. Each year, HCMC is prone to serious floods, not only in the rainy season
from May-November, where monthly average rainfall is 250 mm, but also from October-January
when high tide reaches its peak (1.5 meters), causing the water level in rivers and canals within
the city to often overflow (Duong Van Truc & Doan Canh, 2006; Nguyen Huu Nhan, 2006; Ho
Long Phi, 2007). Recently the magnitude of flooded locations, their frequency and their duration
have been seen to increase continuously (Ho Long Phi, 2007).
Figure 7: Graph showing Annual Maximum Rainfall Events, Tan Son Hoa Station, Ho Chi Minh
City
Source: Ho Long Phi, 2009
Figure 8: Graph showing Frequency of Heavy Rainfall Events; Tan Son Hoa station, Ho Chi
Minh City that exceed threshold X (X=50mm, 80mm and 90mm, respectively).
Source: Ho Long Phi, 2009
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
In Figure 7, an increase of approximately 0.8mm/year of the annual maximum rainfall event can
be seen, while in Figure 8, the number of heavy rainfall events that exceeded the threshold of
50mm corresponding to the drainage capacity of the storm sewer system in Ho Chi Minh City
has been see to double within the last 20 years. Analyses of the urbanisation processes within
HCMC have shown a distinct change in the factors that adversely impact the heavy rainfall
situation and the water level in the area. The fact that over 75% of flooded locations have
occurred in HCMC following rainfall volumes of 40mm or greater, even during ebb tide, would
suggest that the surcharge of storm sewer is currently one of major factors that is responsible for
flooding susceptibility. Without the necessary upgrading of the sewer systems, tide control may
play only a minor role in flooding prevention for HCMC, especially under the increasing pattern
of heavy rainfall.
The period of the last twenty years also corresponds with a period of rapid urbanisation. This
ongoing rapid urbanisation, which changed the land-use patterns of the metropolitan region, can
also be seen as an additional cause for urban flooding. On the one hand, natural streams,
channels, lakes, wetlands and vegetation structures that helped once maintain the urban water
balance have been replaced by impermeable surfaces causing a much altered urban hydrograph.
While on the other, economic development resulting in uncontrolled urbanisation has caused
naturally flood prone areas, and lowlands to be transformed into residential areas or industrial
zones placing inhabitants and assets at risk (Table 2).
Table 2: Rate of land under construction in Ho Chi Minh City districts for the period of 19892002
Ho Chi Minh City District
Rate of construction (%)
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Binh Tan District
Binh Thanh District
Go Vap District
Phu Nhuan District
Tan Binh District
Tan Phu District
Thu Duc District
1.7
16.8
2.7
15.3
1.1
26.2
25.3
23.4
11.9
5.6
8.8
33.2
34.2
23.4
50.3
9.7
16.3
68.2
29.1
Source : Luong Van Viet, 2008
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As already mentioned, HCMC is very prone to tidal flooding; Figure 9 shows flood events
caused by high tide in HCMC in 2008. The figure highlights that districts 4, 6, 7, 8, and Quan
Binh Thanh suffered greatly during this period from flooding caused by extreme high tides. The
maximal number of flood occurrences is seen to occur in district Quan Binh Thanh with 246
separate flood occurrences. In addition the central business district, district 1, was affected by 63
flood occurrences in 2008, caused by high tide alone.
Figure 9: Amount of flood occurrences caused by high tide in districts of HCMC in 2008
Source: Cguyen Xuan Thinh, 2009
Data collection and development of a geo-database, dedicated to flood inundation events in
HCMC is of major importance. This work is currently being carried out in cooperation with our
Vietnamese partners (Doan Canh, 2007; Truong Van Hieu, 2007; Ho Long Phi, 2007). Secondly,
for the modelling of flood events, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with appropriate accuracy
for HCMC will be utilised. The University of Technology HCMC, Department of Water
Resources Engineering has provided raw data for a DEM of HCMC to which geo-processing
techniques were carried out.
Thirdly, through the collection of statistical data regarding past flood events, the first GIS
analysis for our geo-database could be carried out. Via the overlaying of land use data with DEM
it was possible to estimate the spatial distribution and amount of effected land of each land use
type by different increases in sea level. Figure 10 shows the spatial extent of land areas in
relation to Mean Sea Level. It was calculated that 72.3% of the whole urban area of HCMC is
below 2 m mean sea level. Furthermore 98.8% percent of the rural districts Nha Be and Can Gio
are also below 2 m Mean Sea Level. For the two northern rural districts Cu Chi and Hoc Mon,
the figure is 38.3 percent.
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Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
Figure 10: Districts in HCMC and Mean Elevation above Sea Level
Ho Chi Minh City
Elevation above Mean Sea Level
Source: Cguyen Xuan Thinh, 2009
3. Urban Climatology
Mega cities in the tropics and sub tropics over the last decades have been subject to tremendous
transformation processes. The major driving force of which has been very strong demographic
growth which creates a respective demand for housing, infrastructure, industry and leads as well
to increased traffic (IPCC, 2002). The severe consequences are uncontrolled urban growth,
increased density of existing building structures, air pollution (Benkhelifa, 2006) and changes to
the urban climate (Storch, 2008; Katzschner, 1988).
A recent regional climate change scenario (SEA START RC, 2006) has showed that the lower
Mekong River basin region will tend to become slightly warmer, while summer time in the
region will be in the future significantly longer in duration. The number of hot days will increase
by 2-3 weeks, while the number of cool days will reduce by 2-3 weeks. The rapid and dense
urban expansion in HCMC has direct impact at the local scale on the urban climate. The
additional impacts of future rises in temperature due to climate change, together with the
observable increases in temperature due to the urban heat-island (UHI) effects make Asian cities
more vulnerable to higher temperatures (Kalnay & Cai, 2003; Patz et al., 2005). The UHI-effect
reveals that the warming of the inner-core of HCMC is significantly higher (up to 10ºC higher)
than typical temperatures in vegetated urban areas or the surrounding rural areas (Tran Thi Van
2004; Ho Tong Minh Dinh et al., 2006; Le Van Trung et al., 2006). In Table 3, below the marked
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Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
trend of increasing temperature differences between HCMC and the adjacent Mekong delta
region over the last three decades is shown.
Table 3: Rate of increase in temperature in Ho Chi Minh City and the Mekong Delta during the
period 1977-2006
Temperature Increase (oC)
Period
Mekong Delta
(average)
Tan Son Hoa station
Ho Chi Minh City
1977-1986
0,13
0,18
1987-1996
0,14
0,26
0,16
0,34
1997-2006
Source : Luong Van Viet, 2008
In contrast to other issues, urban climatology is very often underestimated. However thermal
stress can have serious impacts on the wellbeing of inhabitants and a strong correlation between
heat stress and mortality has been observed (Patz et al., 2005). Furthermore, when following the
concept of a “liveable city”, creating a city with climate comfort should be one goal of a
sustainable urban planning. Additionally the economic costs of increased air temperature within
the city shouldn’t be underestimated (Roaf et al., 2004, Katzschner, 1988). For every Kelvin rise
in temperature, resultant additional annual costs in millions of dollars for air conditioning within
a mega can be expected (Tonsuwonnont, 2006). The problem of urban climate will be even more
serious taking into account a possible temperature increase associated with climate change
(Kuttler, 2001). Before this backdrop, the thematic field of urban climate aims to find efficient
and adapted methods to assess the urban climate of mega cities (Landsberg, 1981). The goal is to
find the functional relations between different urban and building structures and the urban
climate. Based on this knowledge, applicable advice can be given to urban planners for adapted
urban design at different spatial scales, from regional urban development schemes down to the
single street level.
It is a goal of the thematic field to derive and adapt methodologies for an assessment of the urban
climate which can lead to sound results in a cost and time efficient manner. These methods can
then be transferred to other cities with comparable conditions and climate. In the case of HCMC
a combined approach for analysing long term measurement data, acquiring information regarding
the thermal heat island effect from thermal satellite data (LANDSAT and ASTER) (Le Van
Trung & Nguyen Thanh Minh, 2006; Hunga et al., 2006), and specific ground measuring
campaigns will be used. The methodology is explained in Figure 9. In addition other relevant
parameters such as urban green, streets width (for ventilation), roof types and others are
distinguished from the high resolution satellite images (Akbari, 2003). A typology of typical
building block structures will be gained. For these typical building block structures detailed
measurement campaigns will be lead for both day and night values under different weather
conditions (Rigo et al., 2006). Important in this context is the influence of measures which can
be adapted easily such as urban green, houses colour, or material of the buildings structures
(Carlson & Arthur, 2000). The influence of these features shouldn’t be underestimated (Kalnay
& Cai, 2003). Based on the outcomes of these combined investigations a climate function map at
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
the regional scale will be developed which should be taken into account during the phasing of
urban development plans (Eliasson, 2000).
Figure 11: Structure of the methodology for assessment of the urban climate
Source: Hans-Peter Thamm, 2009
In the next step, typical urban structures will be numerically modelled to compute climate
comfort (like PMV) on street level (Argarwal, 2004; Pearlmuttera, 2007). Therewith the
influence of different planning measures on the urban climate can be calculated and optimised
solutions can be found (Sailor & Dietsch, 2007). The aim will be to create a model coupling with
models working on house level used by architects. The urban climate model on street level will
provide input parameters to compute room climate and the energy balance on the household
level. Vice versa the influence of different measures on the household level to the street level
such as “thermal waste” from air conditions can be evaluated and quantified. Close collaboration
with scientists and government departments in Vietnam are at this stage promising and can
ensure that the outcome of the research will be integrated in the standard planning process for
urban development.
4. Urban Energy
The research in the thematic field Urban Energy focuses on the evaluation of the energy
consumption, the energy supply and the energy source structure of HCMC. The key issues to be
determined are the spatial pattern of energy consumption in the residential sector and the capture
of the energy production and fuel source structure of the city. Scenarios are to be analysed and
developed and policy recommendations and strategies are to be created. The main research task
will be the development of a geo-database for the acquisition of energy relevant underlying data
on resident populations, households, income, and the pattern of energy consumption in regards to
various forms of use in HCMC, and statistical data regarding energy in HCMC and Vietnam.
The first modelling concept has been established to determine the spatial pattern of energy
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Adaptation Planning Framework to Climate Change for the Urban Area Of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
consumption for the residential sector. However it is important to note the difficulties in accruing
data over energy use in HCMC. The first modelling approach is to structure HCMC in different
urban structure types. With the provision of digital data regarding urban structure types, the first
modelling concept will consist of six modules (see Figure 12). In order to quantify or estimate
the energy consumption of each urban structure types surveys are required.
Figure 12: First concept for the modelling of energy consumption in the residential sector of
HCMC
Module A
Module B
Module C
Demographicforecasts, GDP,
Household income,
Energy consumption/
source, Living area
Linking data with
Urban Structure
Types
Building Typology
Representatives of
each Urban Structure
Type, Quantification of
Energy Consumption
Module D
Creating spatial
Patterns of Energy
Consumption/source
for the Residential
sector
Module F
Module E
Policy
Recommendations,
Measures &
Strategies
Analysis &
Development of
Scenarios
Simulation Model
Source: Cguyen Xuan Thinh, 2009
Initially in module A, it is important to determine the spatial distribution of population and
households with different income levels and living area. In other words, a first step in a
projection of domestic energy consumption is to define how many households there will be and
in what kind of buildings or energy-related material standards.
5. Transport in HCMC
The purpose of the study on the HCMC transport system is on the one hand to investigate the
future challenges in light of the city´s very strong population growth and moreover to examine
the strong transport trends from non-motorised transport to motorised individual transport.
Presently a fast transition from motor scooter based individual transport towards a car based
individual transport is occurring (Ackermann et al., 1997; Georget, 2009). In combination with
these changing trends, other related adverse impacts on the environment and adverse impacts to
public health, also need to be taken into account.
Additional to the dynamic growth in demand for transport in HCMC, urban flooding, caused by
heavy rainfall events or through climate induced sea level rise, is also a very pressing challenge
for future land use and the transport system planning, which has to be taken into consideration
while developing adaptation strategies for the future.
A further task is to understand how transport policy decisions are undertaken within the city
authorities and how they are implemented. Here it is necessary to investigate the organisation of
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Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
the existing decision making structure within HCMC and to analyse where bottlenecks and
obstacles occur hindering the efficient implementation of transport policies. The Authorities of
HCMC are aware of these challenges and have developed a series of Transport Masterplans (see
Figure 13 and JICA et al., 2004) and Strategies (Ministry of Transport, 2006) and have carried
out a series of supporting studies (Georget 2009; Nguyen Anh Dung & Ross, 2008).
Figure 13: Ho Chi Minh City – Transport Master Plan network 2020
Source: Ministry of Transport, 2006, page 8
Presently, HCMC follows a very old fashioned transport planning strategy, with the main focus
on providing the road infrastructure for the growing demand. However, HCMC should take a
more active strategy to steer the future transport demand by applying adapted transport
strategies. To be able to do so, firstly HCMC has to define its long term objectives regarding
quality of life, transport and land use. Based on these objectives the city then has to seek openmindedly for transport policies and respective combined policy instruments to be able to reach
their long term objectives. It is also recommended to install adequate monitoring instruments to
verify the implemented strategies deliver the results. A detailed description of the suggested
process can be found in the DMG (May et al., 2005).
To support the authorities in HCMC the setting up an integrated land use and transport
interaction model called MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator) is currently in
preparation (Emberger et al., 2003; Pfaffenbichler, 2003). With the aid of this model it is
possible to assess potential transport strategies regarding their impacts on land use, environment
and economic impacts for a time period of up to thirty years. Presently a major challenge is to
gather the necessary input data for setting up the model in a close collaboration with experts
from the Ho Chi Minh City University of Transport and the Transport Development and Strategy
Institute (TDSI), Ministry of Transport of SR. Vietnam (MOT).
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Fifth Urban Research Symposium 2009
V. SUMMARY AD OUTLOOK
Future urban development scenarios for the mega-urban-region of HCMC are closely interrelated
with climate change adaptation. The consequences of climate change will be influenced by the
economic, social and technological conditions, which will for HCMC, be very different from
those of today. These conditions will have an effect on the vulnerability of HCMC´s future
settlement structure to climate change, by influencing the future ‘adaptive capacity’ – the ability
of the biophysical urban structure to adapt to climate change impacts by increasing their
resilience to climate change effects.
The small-scale spatial variability and heterogeneity of the urban landscapes of HCMC define a
spatial pattern of vulnerability and risk. The basic concept of urban structure types is therefore
the integrating approach for the assessment of vulnerability of the urban area of HCMC. Defined
by the street network, the building-layers are presented as central information basis using the
urban structure type approach. A further indicator-based classification of these structures enables
the correlation of resilience with urban structures.
The most important adaptation strategy will be based on two options. First, the prevention of
effects through combined structural and technological measures (e.g. the construction of resilient
buildings and housing structures, increase in the water storage/retention capacities of new urban
development’s) and second, the prevention of effects through legislative, regulatory and policy
measures (e.g. planning policies that take climate change into consideration; amending design
standards for more resilient building structures and (re)location of housing away from high risk
areas.
The process of adaptation requires the prerequisite of a sound adaptation planning framework for
incorporating the vulnerability and resilience of land-uses into HCMC urban policy and decisionmaking. Adaptation planning systems, which are on the one hand, based on specifically selected
sustainability indicators and data resources and on the other hand linked to available planning
and assessment instruments including strategic environmental assessment represent an important
guidance for the governance of global issues in their own right. A higher framework will
function as a decision support system for site-specific decisions on locations and design of urban
development with the objective to reduce the vulnerability of the urban system in the face of
climate change. Based on the in-depth assessment of the vulnerability of Ho Chi Minh City, the
categorized urban environment in form of a spatially explicit information system will act as a
matrix for the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies for future development and
redevelopment policies. The mainstreaming of climate change into policy making, the urban
planning system and project implementation will be promoted on different spatial scales between
the region and the building plot. The resulting Adaptation Planning Framework should form the
future basis for spatially-explicit decision-making processes related to sustainable urban planning
and development within HCMC.
Urban environmental planning needs to clarify its responsibilities for contributing to long-term
achievements in regional adaptation objectives. Its procedural elements, which are directly
linked to the vulnerability assessment process based on spatial information of the planning
information system, should be strengthened and its objectives and area designations should be
well integrated into regional and urban planning. Spatial planning bodies of the mega-urban
region should take over increasing responsibility to voluntarily coordinate their activities with
other sector planning authorities, in order to set common targets for adaptation of the region‘s
area management to climate change.
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VI. ACKOWLEGEMET
The research project ‘Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning for Adaptation Ho Chi
Minh City to Climate Change - Sustainable Strategies for Climate-Oriented Urban Structures,
Energy-Efficient Housing Typologies and Comprehensive Environmental Protection for
Megacities of Tomorrow’ is financed as part of the new research programme 'Sustainable
Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow’ by the German Federal Ministry of Education and
Research (BMBF). Following an evaluation of the preoperational phase of the project
'Sustainable Housing Policies for Megacities of Tomorrow - the Balance of Urban Growth and
Redevelopment in Ho Chi Minh City' (2005-2008), the main phase of the BMBF-research
programme, now focuses on “energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth centres”,
initiated mid 2008 and will run up to 2013 (www.emerging-megacities.org). Coordinated by the
lead partner Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, a multi-disciplinary German,
European and Vietnamese team, aims to develop an integrated “Adaptation Planning Framework
for Climate Change in the Urban Environment of Ho Chi Minh City” (www.megacityhcmc.org).
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